Chapter 8 Political Participation. A Closer Look at Nonvoting Copyright © 2011 Cengage Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of voting-aged people participated

Chapter 8Chapter 8Political Political

ParticipationParticipation

A Closer Look at NonvotingA Closer Look at Nonvoting

Copyright © 2011 CengageCopyright © 2011 Cengage

Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of voting-aged people participated in elections?voting-aged people participated in elections?


VOTING VOCABULARY VOTING VOCABULARY Voting-age population (VAP) Voting-age population (VAP) – – citizens citizens

who are eligible to vote after reaching the who are eligible to vote after reaching the minimum age requirement.minimum age requirement.

Voting-eligible population (VEP) Voting-eligible population (VEP) – VAP – VAP minus felons and mentally incompetent persons. minus felons and mentally incompetent persons. (Not legally eligible to vote.)(Not legally eligible to vote.)

Registered voters Registered voters – – people who are people who are registered to vote.registered to vote.

Basic question: How should we calculate voter participation?


• If we use VAP, only 56.9% of “the people” participated in 2008 election.

• If we use VEP, 62.2% of “the people” participated in 2008 election.

• If we use registered voters, 89.6% participated in 2008 election. (National Atlas of the USA, U.S. Dept. of Interior)

• Which is the best way to measure political participation?

Source: United States Election Project, Department of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University


VEPVEP VAPVAP

2008 2008 62.2% 56.9%62.2% 56.9%(Presidential)(Presidential)

2010 2010 41.6%41.6% 37.8% 37.8%(Mid-term)(Mid-term)

20122012 58.7% 53.6% 58.7% 53.6%(Presidential)(Presidential)

Source: United States Election Project, Department of Public and International Affairs, George Mason University

Participation in mid-term congressional elections is much lower.

Figure 8.2 Voter Participation in Figure 8.2 Voter Participation in Presidential Elections, 1860-2008Presidential Elections, 1860-2008


Note: Several southern states did not participate in the 1864 and 1868 elections. Sources: For 1860–1928: Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, part 2, 1071; 1932–1944: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1992, 517; 1948–2000: Michael P. McDonald and Samuel L. Popkin, “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter,” American Political Science Review 95 (December 2001): table 1, 966; 2004 and 2008 elections, American National Election Studies (ANES).

Figure 8.3 Voter Turnout in Figure 8.3 Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections


Source: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, June 2008, Table 400.

Black/White Turnout, 2012 ElectionBlack/White Turnout, 2012 Election

For the first time, voter turnout among blacks exceeded that of whites.

Figure 8.3 Voter Turnout in Figure 8.3 Voter Turnout in Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections

Source: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, June 2008, Table 400.

Which party would benefit the most from expanding the electorate?



Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of voting-aged people participated in elections?voting-aged people participated in elections?



1.1. Is this good enough?Is this good enough?2.2. Why don’t more people vote?Why don’t more people vote?3.3. What can/should we do about it?What can/should we do about it?



When asked, registered voters who did not vote gave three reasons for not voting:

(1) Too busy oo busy (About 1/4).

(2) Family chores or obligations (12 percent).

(3) They believed their vote would not matter (12 percent).

A Closer Look at NonvotingA Closer Look at Nonvoting Voter apathy Voter apathy is is notnot the problem. A the problem. A

majority of registered voters vote on majority of registered voters vote on Election Day.Election Day.



Most observers conclude that Most observers conclude that the the cumbersome voter registration process cumbersome voter registration process is is the main problemthe main problem with getting Americans with getting Americans to the polls.to the polls.


I’ll need to see two photo IDs and your birth certificate, please.


A Closer Look at NonvotingA Closer Look at NonvotingSix causes of low voter turnout:

1.Registration process2.Frequency of elections3.Party differences (or lack thereof)4.Difficulty of absentee voting5.Large number of offices to elect6.Weekday voting

CAUSES OF NONVOTING: CAUSES OF NONVOTING: REGISTRATIONREGISTRATION

Registration began around 1900 to fight illegal voting big city political machines. (Progressive reform.)

Registration reduced illegal voting but burdened honest citizens.

In other nations, government is responsible for maintaining voter registration. In the U.S., individual is responsible.

Scholars estimate that voter turnout would increase by 10% with European-style registration.

CAUSES OF NONVOTING: CAUSES OF NONVOTING: REGISTRATIONREGISTRATION

Registration requirements have become more difficult:• longer residency requirements• registration has to occur far in

advance of elections• Discrimination

“Motor Voter” registration (1993) has had only a small impact.

Figure 8.1 Method of RegistrationFigure 8.1 Method of Registration


Source: U.S. Bureau Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, of the Census, Current Population Current Population Survey,Survey,““Voting and Voting and Registration,” June Registration,” June 2008, Figure 6.2008, Figure 6.

A Closer Look at NonvotingA Closer Look at Nonvoting CAUSES OF NONVOTING: CAUSES OF NONVOTING: FREQUENCYFREQUENCY

The U.S. holds elections more often than other nations. American voters go to the polls 2-3 times as often as European voters.

National offices chosen in even-numbered years; most state and local offices chosen in odd-numbered years.

Primary elections used to choose nominees.

CAUSES OF NONVOTING: CAUSES OF NONVOTING:

PARTY DIFFERENCESPARTY DIFFERENCES

European democracies have multi-party systems. Parties have formed along class, ethnic, religious and social divisions. Euro-voters can usually find a ballot choice that conforms to their own views.

The two-party system requires each party to seek broad support from “the middle” by adopting similar stands on issues. This reduces voter choice, and thus This reduces voter choice, and thus motivation to vote.motivation to vote.

In most elections, party differences are not pronounced. Voters conclude that election outcome Voters conclude that election outcome will not substantially affect their future.will not substantially affect their future.


DIFFICULTY OF ABSENTEE VOTINGDIFFICULTY OF ABSENTEE VOTING

Voters can only cast ballots in their own precincts.

If a voter is going to be out of town (business trip, college) he must arrange to vote by absentee ballot.

Most states have strict absentee voting rules.

This requires an additional effort and often a personal visit to the registrar.


OTHER REASONSOTHER REASONS

Number of offices to elect – Americans are asked to vote for many officials at multiple levels. Don’t know what the offices are, who’s running for what, etc.

Weekday, non-holiday voting – Many European democracies have elections on weekends or create a holiday. In the U.S., federal law sets national Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Impact of the 2000 ElectionImpact of the 2000 Election

States run elections. Practices are inconsistent across States run elections. Practices are inconsistent across states.states.

Serious problems with Serious problems with Florida’sFlorida’s electoral process focused electoral process focused attention on the need for reform. attention on the need for reform.

Close results and complaints of voter confusion led to Close results and complaints of voter confusion led to recounts and court challenges.recounts and court challenges.


November 7, 2000 Election Day: November 7, 2000 Election Day: By 8:00 pm, all major By 8:00 pm, all major television networks declared Al Gore the winner of Florida’s 25 television networks declared Al Gore the winner of Florida’s 25 electoral votes.electoral votes.

When more results come in, networks begin changing their When more results come in, networks begin changing their projections.projections.

Al Gore concedes the election. Then, at Al Gore concedes the election. Then, at 3:00 a.m. November 3:00 a.m. November 88, he calls George W. Bush and retracts his concession., he calls George W. Bush and retracts his concession.


• November 8: Official Florida vote count shows Bush with a 1,210 vote lead out of 6 million votes cast.

• Vote tallies in some counties show an unusually large number of votes for third-party candidates.

• November 9: Gore campaign officially requests a manual recount in four Florida counties.

• November 10: Automatic recount completed showing Bush with a 327 vote lead state-wide.


• November 13: Federal district court rejects Bush request to halt manual recounts.

• November 26: Florida state officials certify Bush as the winner by 537 votes.

• November 27: Gore challenges certified results in Florida state court.

• December 1: U.S. Supreme Court hears appeal from Bush on manual recount.


• December 9: U.S. Supreme Court orders halt to manual recount that has been ongoing since November 11.

• December 11: Supreme Court hears arguments in Bush v Gore.

• December 12: Supreme Court rules 5-4 that the Florida recount must stop.

• December 13: Al Gore concedes the election.


The infamous Florida “butterfly ballot”The infamous Florida “butterfly ballot”


Several Florida districts recounted votes Several Florida districts recounted votes by hand.by hand.

In December 2000, in the case of In December 2000, in the case of Bush v. GoreBush v. Gore, the U.S. , the U.S. Supreme Court declared George W. Bush to be the Supreme Court declared George W. Bush to be the winner of the 2000 election.winner of the 2000 election.

Impact of the 2000 ElectionImpact of the 2000 Election George W. Bush was “confirmed” as the new president by the George W. Bush was “confirmed” as the new president by the

U.S. Supreme Court.U.S. Supreme Court.

The debacle led to a national discussion on voting procedures The debacle led to a national discussion on voting procedures and technology.and technology.

Congress passed the Congress passed the Help America Vote Act Help America Vote Act in in 20022002 to to provide funding to states to update election equipment and provide funding to states to update election equipment and procedural standards.procedural standards.

History of the American ElectorateHistory of the American Electorate

History of the American ElectorateHistory of the American Electorate• In the early 1800s, only white,

male, property-owners could vote.

• By 1840, all states had dropped the property requirement. (universal male suffrageuniversal male suffrage)

• Fifteenth Amendment (1870) Fifteenth Amendment (1870) expanded suffrage to black males.

• States quickly moved to block voting rights for blacks.


• Jim Crow laws quickly eroded black voting rights.

• Literacy tests, poll taxes and grandfather clauses used to disenfranchise black men.

History of the American ElectorateHistory of the American Electorate• Women’s suffrage movement began Women’s suffrage movement began

before Civil War.before Civil War.• Nineteenth Amendment Nineteenth Amendment extended right to

vote to women in 1920.• Size of electorate doubled, but women

slow to begin voting.

History of the American ElectorateHistory of the American Electorate• 2424thth Amendment Amendment (1964) (1964)

outlawed poll taxes.outlawed poll taxes.

• Voting Rights Act (1965Voting Rights Act (1965) ) outlawed literacy tests and outlawed literacy tests and gave federal government gave federal government more control over state more control over state electoral practices.electoral practices.

• Net effect: Expansion of the Net effect: Expansion of the electorate as more blacks electorate as more blacks than ever are eligible to than ever are eligible to vote.vote.


• 1960s – period of increased 1960s – period of increased political activism on college political activism on college campuses.campuses.

• Vietnam War was catalyst.Vietnam War was catalyst.

• 2626thth Amendment (1971) Amendment (1971) lowered voting age from 21 lowered voting age from 21 to 18.to 18.

• Low voter turnout among Low voter turnout among 18-20 year-olds from the 18-20 year-olds from the beginning.beginning.


Source: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, June 2008, Table 400.Source: Adapted from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, June 2008, Table 400.

187015th

Amendment(black men)

192019th

Amendment(women)

1896Progressive Movement

(voter registration)

197126th Amendment(18-20 year olds)

2004 & 2008Intense GOTV drives by both

parties.

1964 & 1965•24th Amendment

(no poll tax)• Voting Rights Act(no literacy tests)

Forms of Political ParticipationForms of Political Participation(Verba & Nie) (Verba & Nie)

Inactives (22%): Inactives (22%): Rarely vote, contribute to Rarely vote, contribute to political organizations, or discuss politics (little political organizations, or discuss politics (little education, low income, young, many blacks.)education, low income, young, many blacks.)

Voting specialists: Voting specialists: Vote but do little else; not Vote but do little else; not much education or income, older.much education or income, older.

Campaigners: Campaigners: Vote and get involved in Vote and get involved in campaign activities; Very interested in politics; campaign activities; Very interested in politics; identify with a party. More educated.identify with a party. More educated.


Forms of ParticipationForms of Participation(Verba & Nie) (Verba & Nie)

Communalists: Communalists: Nonpartisan community activists Nonpartisan community activists with a local focus.with a local focus.

Parochial participants: Parochial participants: Don’t vote or participate Don’t vote or participate in campaigns or political organizations, but contact in campaigns or political organizations, but contact politicians about specific problems. politicians about specific problems. (parochial: narrowly restricted in scope or outlook.)(parochial: narrowly restricted in scope or outlook.)

Activists (11%): Activists (11%): Participate in all forms of politics Participate in all forms of politics (highly educated, high income, middle aged.)(highly educated, high income, middle aged.)


Who Participates? Who Participates? Education/IncomeEducation/Income

Education: the single most important indicator the single most important indicator of political activity. of political activity.

The more education a person has, the more The more education a person has, the more likely he/she is to vote.likely he/she is to vote.

College educated College educated oror higher income people higher income people more more than twice as likely to votethan twice as likely to vote than high school than high school educated educated oror lower income. lower income.

Possible reason: the well-educated better Possible reason: the well-educated better understand complex societal issues.understand complex societal issues.

Or, they better understand the importance of Or, they better understand the importance of civic responsibility.civic responsibility.

““Religion increases political participation” Religion increases political participation” is too is too sweeping a statementsweeping a statement. . “Certain types of religious “Certain types of religious expression” expression” can sometimes increase political participation.can sometimes increase political participation.

Regular churchgoers are more likely to vote than those who Regular churchgoers are more likely to vote than those who do not attend.do not attend.

Regardless of religious tradition, those whose form of religious Regardless of religious tradition, those whose form of religious expression involves high levels of both public and private expression involves high levels of both public and private service are more likely to join voluntary associations.service are more likely to join voluntary associations.

Religion is a significant factor in determining who votes but no Religion is a significant factor in determining who votes but no more than education or income.more than education or income.

Who Participates? Who Participates? ReligionReligion

Who Participates? Who Participates? Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity

Whites have higher voting rates than blacks or Whites have higher voting rates than blacks or Latinos when Latinos when onlyonly race is considered. race is considered.

When studies control for income and education, When studies control for income and education, blacks and Hispanics vote at a higher rate than blacks and Hispanics vote at a higher rate than whites.whites.

Turnout rates (% of VEP who voted) Turnout rates (% of VEP who voted)

20042004 20082008 20122012• White: 67.2 66.1 66.1White: 67.2 66.1 66.1• Black: 60.0 64.7 65.2Black: 60.0 64.7 65.2• Hispanic: 47.2 49.9 50.0Hispanic: 47.2 49.9 50.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Who Participates? Who Participates? AgeAge

Voting levels for 18-24 year olds is lowest for any Voting levels for 18-24 year olds is lowest for any age category.age category.

Highest levels are for people over 45.Highest levels are for people over 45.

Many young voters were attracted to the Many young voters were attracted to the younger, charismatic Barack Obama, but....younger, charismatic Barack Obama, but....

....in 2008 young voters were an estimated 18% ....in 2008 young voters were an estimated 18% of the electorate compared to 17% in 2004. of the electorate compared to 17% in 2004.

Who Participates? Who Participates? AgeAge

Who Participates? GenderWho Participates? Gender

Since 1980, voter turnout among women has Since 1980, voter turnout among women has been higher than that among men.been higher than that among men.

2012 election: Women 53% of actual voters, 2012 election: Women 53% of actual voters, men 47% men 47%

This is a new trend following decades of This is a new trend following decades of lower participation.lower participation.

Safest generalization: Safest generalization: Women and men vote at Women and men vote at about the same rates.about the same rates.

Source: American National Election Source: American National Election StudiesStudies

Ticket-splittingTicket-splittingDefinition: Voting for candidates from different parties on the same ballot.

Antonym: Voting a “straight ticket.”

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Chapter 8 Political Participation. A Closer Look at Nonvoting Copyright © 2011 Cengage Would it be a good thing if nearly 100% of voting-aged people participated