CHAPTER 8CHAPTER 8

Elections & CampaignsElections & Campaigns

Running for Federal OfficeRunning for Federal Office

• • Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Over 90% re-election rate in the House and Senate.Senate.

• • House races are less contested than Senate races.House races are less contested than Senate races.

• • Senators run in a statewide election, House run in Senators run in a statewide election, House run in Districts.Districts.

• • Senators run every six years, Congressmen run Senators run every six years, Congressmen run every two years but have unlimited terms.every two years but have unlimited terms.

• • Coattail effect – when the president is strong, Coattail effect – when the president is strong, members of his party are voted for.members of his party are voted for.

••More frequently in Congress and in Senate races More frequently in Congress and in Senate races (stronger in presidential election years)(stronger in presidential election years)

WHY INCUMBENTS WIN?WHY INCUMBENTS WIN?

Name recognitionName recognition Constituent serviceConstituent service Easier to raise moneyEasier to raise money Assignments on committees that serve Assignments on committees that serve

their constituentstheir constituents Free PressFree Press Take credit for anything positive that has Take credit for anything positive that has

happened. Blame Washington (or prez) happened. Blame Washington (or prez) for anything bad that has occurred.for anything bad that has occurred.

FRANKING PRIVILEGEFRANKING PRIVILEGE

CAMPAIGNSCAMPAIGNS

Campaigns are extremely expensive. Campaigns are extremely expensive. Most campaigns are now Most campaigns are now

concentrated on the media.concentrated on the media.Negative ads work, that’s why they Negative ads work, that’s why they

use them.use them.

CAMPAIGNSCAMPAIGNS

Incumbents are rarely challenged in Incumbents are rarely challenged in a primary election.a primary election.

A primary election is an election to A primary election is an election to nominate a candidate for office, has nominate a candidate for office, has a low voter turnout.a low voter turnout.

Types of PrimariesTypes of Primaries

Closed primaries are most common, Closed primaries are most common, you must belong to a party to you must belong to a party to participate in primary.participate in primary.

Open primaries allow any registered Open primaries allow any registered voter to participate.voter to participate.

Blanket primaries allow all Blanket primaries allow all candidates, no matter what party, on candidates, no matter what party, on one ballot, recently ruled one ballot, recently ruled unconstitutional.unconstitutional.

Most important thing to campaign is Most important thing to campaign is name recognition, most get known to name recognition, most get known to be chosen.be chosen.

Open seat is an election where there Open seat is an election where there is no incumbent. Parties stay out of is no incumbent. Parties stay out of primary until a winner is chosen, primary until a winner is chosen, then they put their support fully then they put their support fully behind the nominee.behind the nominee.

MIDTERM ELECTIONSMIDTERM ELECTIONS

Presidential races are much more Presidential races are much more competitive than House races, the competitive than House races, the winning margins are more narrow.winning margins are more narrow.

Midterm Election is an election that Midterm Election is an election that occurs every two years in a non-occurs every two years in a non-presidential election year.presidential election year. Turnout much lowerTurnout much lower All Congressmen up for reelection (435 seats)All Congressmen up for reelection (435 seats) 1/3 of Senators up for reelection1/3 of Senators up for reelection President coattails not as greatPresident coattails not as great

Congressional BreakdownCongressional Breakdown

Each state has 2 SenatorsEach state has 2 SenatorsHouse seats set at 435House seats set at 435

Number per state determined by populationNumber per state determined by population Dispersion changes every 10 years with Dispersion changes every 10 years with

National Census.National Census.

Florida has enjoyed the greatest Florida has enjoyed the greatest jump in representation due to the jump in representation due to the last 2 counts.last 2 counts.

DRAWING DISTRICTSDRAWING DISTRICTS

The State Legislature is responsible for The State Legislature is responsible for redrawing the district lines if the census redrawing the district lines if the census causes a state to gain or lose a seat in the causes a state to gain or lose a seat in the House.House.

Gerrymandering – boundaries drawn to Gerrymandering – boundaries drawn to favor one party rather than another favor one party rather than another resulting in odd-shaped districts. This is resulting in odd-shaped districts. This is unconstitutional.unconstitutional.

Malapportionment- districts are drawn w/ Malapportionment- districts are drawn w/ very different populations. Illegal. Baker v very different populations. Illegal. Baker v Carr (1962) Carr (1962)

Nominating a PresidentNominating a President

11stst Iowa Caucus – Party leaders meet Iowa Caucus – Party leaders meet to select candidateto select candidate

Caucus may pick more ideological Caucus may pick more ideological candidates.candidates.

22ndnd New Hampshire Primary – Voters New Hampshire Primary – Voters choose favorite candidatechoose favorite candidate

Almost all states have primariesAlmost all states have primaries

PARTY CONVENTIONPARTY CONVENTION

Party convention is where the candidate is Party convention is where the candidate is officially nominated as presidential officially nominated as presidential candidate for party.candidate for party.

Every 4 years receive delegates to make it Every 4 years receive delegates to make it official.official.

National chair- controls party convention.National chair- controls party convention. Each convention sets party platform for Each convention sets party platform for

upcoming four years. upcoming four years.

CampaignsCampaigns

Campaign is dominated by television. Campaign is dominated by television. Debates really don’t make a Debates really don’t make a

difference unless a candidate really difference unless a candidate really screws up.screws up.

This is referred to as the gaffe This is referred to as the gaffe problemproblem

Electoral CollegeElectoral College

Winner take all in each state – you receive Winner take all in each state – you receive more votes in a state, you win all the more votes in a state, you win all the electoral votes for that state.electoral votes for that state.

You need a majority of electoral votes to You need a majority of electoral votes to win the presidency.win the presidency.

Total electoral votes is 538, but 270 would Total electoral votes is 538, but 270 would be the majority.be the majority.

The electoral college vote makes the The electoral college vote makes the margin of victory seem larger than it really margin of victory seem larger than it really is.is.

No Electoral WinnerNo Electoral Winner

1212thth Amendment – creates separate Amendment – creates separate elections for the president and vice elections for the president and vice president.president.

If no candidate wins 270 votesIf no candidate wins 270 votes Presidential race goes to House, each state Presidential race goes to House, each state

gets a vote, 26 votes wins.gets a vote, 26 votes wins. Vice President races goes to Senate, each Vice President races goes to Senate, each

senator gets a vote, 51 votes wins.senator gets a vote, 51 votes wins.

Money in Electoral Money in Electoral CampaignsCampaigns

President gets money from private President gets money from private and public funds.and public funds.

Congress gets private money.Congress gets private money.Federal restrictions:Federal restrictions:

$2000 limit for individual contributions$2000 limit for individual contributions $5000 limit for PACs$5000 limit for PACs

Political Action Committees Political Action Committees (PACS)(PACS)

PAC RequirementsPAC Requirements1) At least 50 voluntary members1) At least 50 voluntary members2) Give to at least 5 federal 2) Give to at least 5 federal

candidatescandidates3) limited to $5000 per election per 3) limited to $5000 per election per

candidate.candidate.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORMCAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM

1974 FECA set limits on donations by 1974 FECA set limits on donations by individuals and groupsindividuals and groups

PACs were created to circumvent this actPACs were created to circumvent this act 2000 Bipartisan campaign Reform Act2000 Bipartisan campaign Reform Act

Banned soft moneyBanned soft money

*unlimited amounts of money that can be given to a *unlimited amounts of money that can be given to a political party so long as that candidate is not named.political party so long as that candidate is not named.

Sharply restricted independent expenditures- corporations, Sharply restricted independent expenditures- corporations, unions and other groups can’t advertise referring to a unions and other groups can’t advertise referring to a candidate by name 30 days before a primary and 60 candidate by name 30 days before a primary and 60 days before a general election.days before a general election.

WHO WINS AND WHYWHO WINS AND WHY

• The most recognized with the most The most recognized with the most money raised and is an incumbent wins.money raised and is an incumbent wins.

• Party affiliation still #1 reason why you Party affiliation still #1 reason why you vote for someone.vote for someone.

• Democrats have larger numbers, should Democrats have larger numbers, should win, but Republicans have higher win, but Republicans have higher turnout and get more independent turnout and get more independent voters.voters.

Who Wins and Why?Who Wins and Why?

PartyPartyState of the EconomyState of the EconomyCandidate characterCandidate character IncumbencyIncumbency

WHO DECIDES ELECTIONS?WHO DECIDES ELECTIONS?

Party ID still #1Party ID still #1Democrats have more registered Democrats have more registered

votersvotersRepublicans have higher turnout.Republicans have higher turnout.GOP does better among GOP does better among

independentsindependentsPeople change parties when their People change parties when their

interests change.interests change.

Prospective VotingProspective Voting

prospective voters- used by very few prospective voters- used by very few votersvoters

These voters know the issues and These voters know the issues and vote accordingly.vote accordingly.

Most common among activists and Most common among activists and special interest groups.special interest groups.

Retrospective VotingRetrospective Voting

Practiced by most voters.Practiced by most voters.Decides most elections.Decides most elections. Judge the incumbent’s performance Judge the incumbent’s performance

and vote accordingly.and vote accordingly.Usually helps the incumbent…unless Usually helps the incumbent…unless

economy has gotten worse.economy has gotten worse.Midterm elections: voters turn Midterm elections: voters turn

against president’s party.against president’s party.

The campaignThe campaign

Campaigns do make a difference.Campaigns do make a difference.They let voters see how candidates They let voters see how candidates

handle and apply pressure.handle and apply pressure.They let voters judge candidates’ They let voters judge candidates’

character and core values.character and core values.Campaigns emphasize themes over Campaigns emphasize themes over

details.details.

Finding a winning coalitionFinding a winning coalition

Candidate/Party goal is to appeal to Candidate/Party goal is to appeal to as many citizens as possible.as many citizens as possible.

Then you must get those voters to Then you must get those voters to turnout and be loyal to you and your turnout and be loyal to you and your party.party.

Democratic CoalitionDemocratic Coalition

Blacks most loyal.Blacks most loyal. Jews slipping in recent years.Jews slipping in recent years.Hispanics are mixed between parties.Hispanics are mixed between parties.Catholics, southerners, and union Catholics, southerners, and union

members are wavering with their members are wavering with their loyalty.loyalty.

Republican CoalitionRepublican Coalition

Party of business and professional Party of business and professional people who are very loyal.people who are very loyal.

Farmers are often Republican, but Farmers are often Republican, but are changeable.are changeable.

What decides elections?What decides elections?

1) strength of economy.1) strength of economy.2) popularity of candidate.2) popularity of candidate.3) party loyalty and ideology.3) party loyalty and ideology.

In Congressional campaigns:In Congressional campaigns:District lines and who is included and District lines and who is included and

excluded in the district.excluded in the district.

Do elections really make a Do elections really make a difference?difference?

Policies do change as a result of Policies do change as a result of electoral outcomes.electoral outcomes.

However, separation of powers and However, separation of powers and checks-and-balances limits the checks-and-balances limits the impact of any single office or impact of any single office or election.election.