The Cold War

Chaitanya Lokireddy

P. 6

Chapter 6: Actors

In the 1980s, powerful individuals on both sides of the Iron Curtain shaped events like never before.

By 1980, the world had seemingly settled into a set order in which MAD enforced stability. Dtente might keep the world safe forever by fostering mutual respect for the other superpowers sphere of influence, banning direct warfare, and even permitting each side to verify the others military capabilities in the interests of trust. But dtente conceded large parts of the world to authoritarianism, poverty and suffering. Many people were unwilling to continue such an existence, and the Communists found it increasingly difficult to control them and their supporters.

The centerpiece of dtente was the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I). Signed in 1972, it capped the number of ICBMs and SLBMs and forbade serious missile defense systems.

This legitimated the concept that security came from MAD. However, SALT I was an incomplete agreement:

While the number of missiles was capped, there was no restriction on the number of warheads that could be loaded onto each missile. Plane-delivered nuclear bombs were also not restricted.

Many Americans were upset that SALT I allowed the Soviets to keep more missiles than the U.S.

Short-range missiles and the nuclear arsenals of Britain and France were exempted.

A dissatisfied Congress passed a law mandating nuclear weapons parity in any future reduction agreements.

This demand, along with calls for a more open process of negotiation (Kissinger was very secretive with his dealings with the Soviets) crippled efforts at getting SALT II during Carters Presidency.

Carter also angered the Soviets with his persistent demands that they respect human rightssomething previous Presidents had avoided.

Brezhnev was in poor health and turned over much of the SALT II negotiation and nuclear policy in general to the military. They were aggressive and shortsighted, disturbing the MAD-assured balance of power by starting new civil defense programs and deploying SS20 IRBMs against Western Europe. The latter responded by asking for deployments of Pershing IRBMs.

Carter and Brezhnev signed SALT II in June, 1979. Ratification of the treaty stalled in the Senate over Carters announced presence of a Soviet brigade in Cuba (embarrassingly, this had been permitted under the secret Kennedy-Khrushchev agreement that ended the Cuban missile crisisCarter just didnt know about it), and then REALLY stalled after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December.

Nixon and Brezhnev had agreed not to interfere in each others spheres of influence and to tamp down proxy wars in the Third World. Anwar Sadat, angered by this seeming Soviet abandonment of his nation (also exemplified by Soviet inaction during the 1967 war) terminated his countrys relationship with the USSR and sought American patronage. Ignored, he waged the 1973 warwhich he expected to loseto get attention and to force America to act on his behalf rather than led Israel destroy him. Rather than let an anti-Soviet major Arab leader be humiliated, the U.S. indeed intervened by negotiating an immediate end to the war. During the 1979 Camp David Accords, Sadats plan came to fruition when he got the Sinai back along with generous American support and friendship into the indefinite future. The Soviets totally lost all influence on Egypt.

The Egypt example showed the fragility of dtente: One superpower could still be pressured by a third party to behave in ways that gained it a unilateral advantage in the Third World.

After the Vietnam War, the Soviet Union thus continued to violate dtente in places like Angola, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan. However, these places were strategically unimportant, and their Communist factions were only supported by the USSR for ideological and propaganda reasons. But this policy of supporting Communism wherever it arose was problematic because it dragged the USSR into conflicts and internal affairs within far flung countries it had no practical interest in protecting. In 1977, the Soviet client state of Somalia attacked Marxist Ethiopia. The USSR had to switch sides for ideological reasons in the pointless conflict between two impoverished countries. The U.S. gained from this by allying itself with Somalia and obtaining access to naval bases. Furthermore, the Soviet interference damaged relations with America, which were far more important than having a stake in the Somali Ethiopian War.

Coupled with USSR Cuban support for the Angolan Communists, Soviet actions gave the appearance of a major initiative against Africa.

The 1978 Marxist takeover of Afghanistan was a surprise for Moscow. But the new Afghan government was unpopular from the start, and came under assault from Islamic fundamentalism following the Iranian Revolution. The USSR became increasingly responsible for propping up the hated Afghan regime. Even though they knew the timing was incredibly bad (SALT II was pending approval, the 1980 Moscow Olympics were upcoming, nuclear tensions in Europe were high over the IRBMs), and that the international community would surely respond harshly, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan on Christmas, 1979 after the Marxist government fell and there were fears that its replacement would be pro American. Carter responded by withdrawing SALT II from Senate consideration, cutting most trade with the USSR, increasing military spending, and boycotting the 1980 Olympics.

The 1970s were certainly bad for America:The Vietnam War was lost.

Nixon resigned in disgrace and faith in the government was deeply shaken.

The oil embargos because of the 1973 War occurred.

The economy was generally very bad.

U.S. allied governments in Afghanistan, Iran, Latin America, and Africa were either replaced or came under assault by Communists.

The USSR surpassed the U.S. in the size of its nuclear arsenal.

Many analysts believed that this marked the start of Americas decline vis--vis the Soviet Union. However, the Eastern Bloc was experiencing even more serious problems that it was trying desperately to cover up:

All of their economies and living standards had stagnated and even started declining by the 1960s. Making matters worse was the fact that the Com bloc economies were much smaller than their Western counterparts.

Discontent with Communism was widespread and growing in the Eastern Bloc.

The Soviet Union was forced to permit extension of Western credits and trade into Eastern Europe to stave off economic collapseSoviet aid was no longer sufficient.

The Soviets had to spend three times as great a percentage of their GDP on defense as the U.S. just to keep up.

Much of the Soviet economic/military power of the 1970s and 80s stemmed from revenues off of high oil prices. Cyclical variations in the price of oil meant their cashflow would inevitably decline.

On balance then, the Eastern Bloc was declining in power relative to the West during the 1970s. The Soviets also lacked any cohesive, longterm foreign policy strategy:

They had become economically dependent upon the West, yet continually offended it with provocative actions.

They knew their economy was heading for disaster in the long term, yet did nothing to correct it. They had promised to respect human rights, but refused to follow through.

Deng Xiaoping Was sent into exile twice by Mao during the 1970s.

Mao died in 1976, and Deng consolidated power by 1978.

Like Khrushchev after Stalin, Deng proclaimed that Mao had done both good and bad things as leader: Building up the nations military, keeping the Communist monopoly on power, and opening relations with the U.S. were good, while Maos administration of the economy had been bad.

Deng allowed experimentation with Capitalism at regional levels, which in turn lead to an explosion in the size of the Chinese economy and greatly improved living standards. This contrasted with the Soviet economy (which shrank during the 1980s) and lent popular support to the Chinese Communist Party, allowing it to survive the end of the Cold War.

Margaret Thatcher Throughout her career as Prime Minister, she dismantled various aspects of the Social welfare state: Taxes were cut, stateowned industries were reformed or privatized, labor unions were opposed, and regulations were cut.

Her popularity and the success of her policies showed that Capitalism was still a very valid system.

Thatcher publicly opposed the Soviets and was a critic of dtente.

Ronald Reagan Already famous as a film actor, and consistently underestimated as a result of this: Reagan was in fact a brilliant politician and a master strategist.

He could balance the simple and the complex. Dtente was designed to prolong the Cold War. Ending the Cold War therefore required ending dtente.

Communism is a temporary aberration which will one day disappear from the earth because it is contrary to human nature. 1975 Reagans view: Democratic capitalism will triumph over communism in the long run, unless and nuclear war first destroys the human race.

Lech Walesa In 1980, he organized the first independent, selfgoverning union (of shipyard workers) in the Communist world.

His move was wildly popular among fellow Poles, and immediately gained public support from the Pope.

In 1981, Bulgarian intelligencealmost certainly at the behest of the Soviet leadershiphired Turk Mehmet Ali Agca to kill Walesa and the Pope. He wounded the Pope and was captured. There were concerns that Poland was slipping out of Soviet control.

Though the Soviets pressured Poland to shut down Solidarity, the Polish government continued to tolerate its existence. There were fears this would inspire other labor movements and popular resistance elsewhere in the Soviet sphere. The Soviets could not simply invade Poland as they had done to Czechoslovakia in 1968:

Their military was bogged down in Afghanistan, and a second occupation wasnt affordable.

If Carter responded harshly to the Afghan invasion, Reagan was be even worse in response to a Polish invasion.

This shift in Soviet strategy marked the end of their willingness to use force to preserve their sphere of influence per the Brezhnev Doctrine. Solidarity also showed to the world that Communism had utterly failed to advance workers rights.

On December 13th, 1981, the President of Poland imprisoned Solidaritys leaders out of fear the USSR was about to invade.

Reagan understood that the Soviet advantage was largely psychological, and that, through words and symbolic actions, he could call attention to their weaknesses and bring them down. While previous leaders had emphasized perpetual, peaceful coexistence with the Soviets, Reagan espoused the message that Communism was bound to collapse and had failed its citizens. Brezhnev died in 1982, and his successor, Andropov, died in 1983. This symbolized the ailing health of the entire Soviet system. Reagan began invoking religion against the USSR: The West was bound by God to fight evil. The Soviets were evil because they held the state supreme over all, including human rights, and because they openly pursued world domination.

Reagan held that the Soviet regime was morally illegitimate, and therefore unrespectable in some degree.

In spite of a growing antinuclear movement in the U.S. and Europe, Reagan put Pershing II IRBMs in Europe to counter Soviet SS20s. He also began development of the SDI, in defiance of MAD. In part, this was done because he knew the Soviets were woefully behind with respect to computer technologies required for missile defense.

Reagans commitment to SDIwhich would have rendered nukes obsoletehis proposal for START I, and many of his public statements show he actually wanted to abolish nuclear weapons.

Reagan knew that missile defenses were decades away, but the Soviets didnt know how advanced our technology was, so they bought into Reagans SDI bluff: SDI became a bargaining chip Reagan could use as leverage against the Soviets. Andropov was intimidated by Reagans military buildup and firm rhetoric, and was convinced the U.S. might attempt a first strike.

The Soviets were also scared when a NATO military exercise (Able Archer) involved higher leadership than normal and seemed to simulate an invasion of the USSR.

Andropovs successor, Chernenko, was a borderline senile geriatric who died in 1985.

Mikhail Gorbachev was elected by the Politburo to next head to USSR. He was of a different character from past Soviet leaders: He was universityeducated to be a lawyer, openly admitted the faults of Communism, and was warm towards foreign leaders. Gorbachev was also only 54the youngest leader since Stalin.

Gorbachev wanted to change the Soviet Union, but lacked the strength of personality and vision of Reagan, and so was often pushed around by the latter.

Gorbachev, unlike Andropov, trusted that the U.S. would not attack him.

The 1986 Chernobyl meltdown and the subsequent investigation showed that Soviet society was a faade where slipshod work, unprofessionalism, internal criticism (however constructive), and inferior technology had formed the rotten core of an outwardly stable system. Resulting from the disaster, Gorbachev instituted glasnost (publicity) and perestroika (restructuring). At Reykjavik in 1987, Gorbachev and Reagan met to discuss nuclear arms control. Both were willing to remove all IRBMs from Europe and to make drastic cuts in ICBMs, but the two differed over SDI. The meeting broke up when Reagan refused to give up SDI.

Later in 1987, the two agreed to destroy all IRBMs in Europe.

Gorbachev was also strongly influenced by Secretary of State Shultza former Stanford economics professorwho repeatedly went to Moscow to lecture Gorbachev and his top advisors about the need for greater Soviet openness and Capitalist reforms, lest they completely fall behind the curve economically and technologically.

Gorbachev realized that Communism had to be moderated and blended with Capitalism to succeed, but he was unwilling to make the same scale of changes that Deng Xiaopeng had.

The state cannot influence efficient labor anywhere near as well as markets.

In the late 1980s, the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan and cancelled support for worldwide Communist movements. In private, the Soviet leadership had also relinquished any real claim on Eastern Europe and was unwilling to use military force against them, yet it preserved the faade of domination, which the West believed.

Gorbachevs 1988 speech to the UN General Assembly that the Soviet forces in Eastern Europe would be cut by 500,000 men openly signaled the USSRs concession of power over the region. Postwar: A History of Europe Since 1945The State of Europe Individual rights were thrust into the realm of politics as a result of the retreat of Marxism with the Conference of Security and Cooperation Helsinki (Helsinki Accords).

Marx dismissed individual rights as egoistic and borgeois.

A lot of socialist, liberalist parties floundered helplessly.

Havel insisted that peace was not an option for countries where the state was constantly at war with society and reform.

The west paid very little attention to the domestic affairs of the USSR.

Instead, the west, including the United States, had begun to assume that the USSR was here to stay, based on their economic projections and on the way that they handled social uprisings such as Prague Spring.

France It was common to find speeches and writings unrestrainedly invoking human rights and personal liberties.

French critics and writers had a lot to say about the way that leftist nations were treating their societies.

Czechoslovakia A Czech reformer wrote an Open Letter to the Communists and Socialists of Europe, which basically shut down the illusions of reform Communism.

A lot of professionals and thinkers found work as stokers and boilermen.

Most soviet-bloc constitutions expressed a lot about individual rights, and this provided a target for western critics.

The Party was forced onto the defensive by these critics. A lot of the rules were embarrassed and harassed by western critics.

Vclav Havel was a reformed that was very active before 1968. He became a political figure, although he preached that the point wasnt to argue with those in power, but rather, to tell the truth.

Pollution ran rampant in the streets and it was the society that was affected. 4/5ths of the well water was unsafe for drinking. In 1977, a group of Czechoslovakian citizens signed a declaration criticizing its government for its failure to implement the human rights in the constitution.

Havel was to become the leader of Charter 77 as it was called.

One goal of the charter was to overcome the ignorance of public affairs by their fellow citizens.

Hungary

Intelligentsia was finally differentiated completely from the public population due to their executions by the state.

Self-censorship was a major deal. In order to access certain audiences, writers had to censor some of the things they would normally say. Due to this rampant censorship, many of the reputations of Eastern European thinkers took a hit.Poland As a result of the individual rights granted by communist states, people were free to form associations such as KOR or ROPCiO. These associations helped to publicize assaults on workers, etc.

The intellectual leaders of the KOR would end up writing the Charter of Workers Rights.

The Catholic Church provided a sort of semi-protected space in which a degree of literature and intellectual freedom could be practiced, albeit cautiously.Bohemia Had some of the worst air pollution. Due to Bohemian pollution, Czechoslovakian forests and rivers were dying.

Romania Romania remained silent as it had for three decades throughout this whole solidarity and Charter 77 movement

Even if such a movement had arisen, it is unlikely that Romania would have gotten western support.PAGE 1