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Predicting the Markets:Chapter 6 Charts:
Predicting ConsumersYardeni Research, Inc.
November 9, 2020
Dr. Edward YardeniChief Investment Strategist
Mali QuintanaSenior Economist
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
November 9, 2020 / Chapter 6 Charts: Predicting Consumers www.yardeni.com
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Predicting Consumers 1-33
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2458
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58
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68
70
Q3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as a percent of nominal GDP)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 1.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2452
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72
Q3
Q3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as a percent of nominal GDP)
PCE / GDPTotal PCEPCE ex-Health Care
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 2.
Predicting Consumers
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1909 1914 1919 1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 20242.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2018
LIVE BIRTHS*(millions)
* Ages shown for each group are as of 2018.Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics.
Greatest Generation1910-1927
91-108 yrs old47 million
Silent Generation1928-1945
73-90 yrs old52 million
Baby Boomers1946-1964
54-72 yrs old76 million
Gen X1965-1980
38-53 yrs old55 million
Gen YMillenials1981-1996
22-37 yrs old62 million
Gen Z1997-20108-21 yrs old57 million
Gen Alpha2011-20240-7 yrs old28 million(thru 2017)
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Figure 3.
19091914
19191924
19291934
19391944
19491954
19591964
19691974
19791984
19891994
19992004
20092014
20192024
2029
40
60
80
100
120
140
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2016
2019
BIRTHS & GENERAL FERTILITY RATES
Births(millions)
GeneralFertility Rate*
* General Fertility rate measures live births per 1,000 women aged 15-44.Source: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, Birth Data.
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Figure 4.
Predicting Consumers
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1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
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2.4
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3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
2019
2020
HOUSEHOLD & FAMILY AVERAGE SIZE
Average NumberOf Persons
FamilyHousehold
Source: Current Population Reports.
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Figure 5.
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24100
200
300
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500
600
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800
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1000
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1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
100
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1100
1200
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1500
1600
Sep
SepUS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: TOTAL vs. COLLEGE COSTS(1982-84=100)
TotalCollege Tuition & Fees
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 6.
Predicting Consumers
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1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 202734
36
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50
52
34
36
38
40
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44
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50
52
Oct
THE AGE WAVE(percent of labor force16-34 years old)
1962
1980
Note: Oldest and youngest Baby Boomers turned 16 in 1962 and 1980, respectively.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 7.
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 202858
60
62
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66
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66
68
Oct
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE*(percent, sa)
* Labor force as percent of working-age population.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yard
eni.c
om
Figure 8.
Predicting Consumers
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2625
30
35
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50
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30
35
40
45
50
Oct
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE: FEMALES(as a percent of total labor force)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 9.
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 2520
22
24
26
28
30
32
20
22
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28
30
32
2018
2018
MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE(years)
MenWomen
Source: Current Population Reports.
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Figure 10.
Predicting Consumers
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65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2362
64
66
68
70
62
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66
68
70
Q3
US HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE(percent, nsa)
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 11.
71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 252
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18
20
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11/5
30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATE(percent, weekly)
Source: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation.
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Figure 12.
Predicting Consumers
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
2
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Oct
AVERAGE & MEDIAN DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT(weeks, sa)
Oct
AverageMedian
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 13.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202215
20
25
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90
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Aug
HIRES, SEPARATIONS, LAYOFFS, and QUITS(12-month sum, millions)
HiresSeparationsQuitsLayoffs
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 14.
Predicting Consumers
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440
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HOUSEHOLD & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(millions, sa, ratio scale)
Oct
Payroll EmploymentHousehold Employment
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 15.
-2000
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Oct
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-4000
-2000
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6000
-4000
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4000
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Oct
HOUSEHOLD & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(monthly change, thousands, sa)
Payroll (638.0)
Household (2243.0)
Note: Extreme values for April not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 16.
Predicting Consumers
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
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1200
Oct
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT(thousands)
12-month average
12-month sum
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-350
-250
-150
-50
50
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250
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-350
-250
-150
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Jun
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS(monthly change, thousands)
Most Recent LessFirst-Reported
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 18.
Predicting Consumers
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
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2
Jun
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT: REVISIONS(12-month sum, millions)
Most Recent LessFirst-Reported
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 19.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
Oct
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES(monthly change, thousands, sa)
PRIVATE PAYROLLS*ADPBLS
* Monthly change in nonfarm private payroll employment.Note: Extreme values for April not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP.
Figure 20.
Predicting Consumers
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
-20
-10
0
10
Oct
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES(yearly change, millions)
Private Payrolls*
BLSADP
* Monthly change in nonfarm private payroll employment.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and ADP.
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Figure 21.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
30
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70
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ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE(millions, sa)
Company Size (by employees)Small (1-49)Medium (50-499)Large (over 500)
Source: ADP.
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Figure 22.
Predicting Consumers
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202220
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60
Oct
ADP NONFARM PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT BY COMPANY SIZE*(as a percent of total ADP payrolls)
Company Size (by employees)SmallMediumLarge
* Company size by employees: Small (1-49), Medium (50-499), and Large (over 500).Source: ADP.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
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35
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MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS SMALL BUSINESSES FACE(percent, 6-ma)
Sep
Poor SalesTaxesGovernment RegulationFinancial &Interest Rates
Source: National Federation of Independent Business.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
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Figure 24.
Predicting Consumers
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
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25
30
35
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16.5
Oct
NFIB "POOR SALES" & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(percent)
Small Business Owners:Percent Reporting Poor Sales (6-ma)
Unemployment Rate
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 25.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
35
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25
20
15
10
5
Sep
NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & POOR SALES(percent, 12-ma)
NFIB: Earnings Higher Minus LowerPast 3 Months
Percent Reporting Poor Sales(inverted scale)
Source: National Federation of Independent Business.
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Figure 26.
Predicting Consumers
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74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 245
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NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Oct
NFIB: Small Businesswith Job Openings*(percent, 3-month average)
Unemployment Rate(percent)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.
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Figure 27.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2640
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Oct
OctLABOR FORCE & NOT IN LABOR FORCE(millions, sa, ratio scale)
Not In Labor ForceLabor Force
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 28.
Predicting Consumers
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260
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0
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100
120
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NOT IN LABOR FORCE*(millions, nsa)
Not In Labor ForceTotal16-24 Year Olds
65 Years & Older25-54 Years Old
* Working-age population data are not seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-14
-12
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YRI EARNED INCOME PROXY vs. PRIVATE WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME(yearly percent change)
YRI Earned Income Proxy*Private Wages & Salaries
* Aggregate weekly hours times average hourly earnings of total private industries times 52.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
Predicting Consumers
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2432
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AVERAGE WORKWEEK(hours, sa)
Oct
Oct
Private Industry WorkweekManufacturing Workers
All WorkersProduction & Nonsupervisory Employees
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2465
70
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85
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70
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80
85
Oct
Oct
PRODUCTION & NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
Percent of:
Total PayrollEmployment
Total PrivatePayroll Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 32.
Predicting Consumers
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64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2414
16
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Sep
REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGSPRODUCTION & NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES*(2012 dollars per hour, ratio scale)
* Average hourly earnings deflated by personal consumption expenditures deflator.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics.
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Figure 33.
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 240
10
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Q3
PERSONAL INCOME COMPONENTS*(as percent of Personal Income)
Proprietor’s IncomeRental Income
Wages, Salaries & SupplementsWages & Salaries
* Pre-tax.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 34.
Predicting Consumers
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23.0
.5
1.0
1.5
.0
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1.0
1.5Q3
Q3
SUPPLEMENTS TO WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME(trillion dollars, saar)
Employer ContributionsEmployee Pension and Insurance FundsGovernment Social Insurance
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 35.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 255
7
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Q3
SUPPLEMENTS TO WAGES & SALARIES IN PERSONAL INCOME(as a percent of Wages & Salaries plus Supplements)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 36.
Predicting Consumers
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47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2520
420
820
1220
1620
202024202820
20
420
820
1220
1620
202024202820
PRE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS &PROPRIETORS’ INCOME
(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)Q2
* Pre-tax corporate profits from current production and proprietors’ income both include Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital ConsumptionAdjustment, which are used to restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the currentcost measures used in GDP.
Corporate Profits* (1826.1)Proprietors’ Income* (1810.8)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
RATIO PROPRIETORS’ INCOME TO PRE-TAX CORPORATE PROFITS*
Q2
* Pre-tax corporate profits from current production and proprietors’ income both include Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital ConsumptionAdjustment, which are used to restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the currentcost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 38.
Predicting Consumers
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2310
210
410
610
810
101012101410
10
210
410
610
810
101012101410
RENTAL INCOME OF PERSONS IN PERSONAL INCOME*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q3
* For tenant-occupied property, rental income of persons is the income of the landlord from current production less the related expenses,such as depreciation,maintenance and repairs, property taxes, and mortgage interest. For owner-occupied property, rental income of persons is the imputed net income of the owner.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2310
410
810
1210
16102010
10
410
810
1210
16102010
TENANT & OWNER-OCCUPIED RENTIN PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q3
Q3
Tenant RentOwner-Occupied Space Rent
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 40.
Predicting Consumers
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 245
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Q3
US GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS IN PERSONAL INCOME(percent of personal income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 256
8
10
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10
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PERSONAL CURRENT TAXES* IN PERSONAL INCOME(as a percent of Personal Income)
Q3
* Consists mostly of individual income taxes. Does not include payroll taxes.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
Predicting Consumers
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47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 251
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REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME vs.REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(trillion 2012 dollars, saar ratio scale)Q3
Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresReal Disposable Personal Income
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 43.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25-20
-10
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REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME vs.REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(yearly percent change)
Q3
Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresReal Disposable Personal Income
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 44.
Predicting Consumers
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47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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PERSONAL SAVING RATE(percent)
Q3
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 45.
56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 243
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REAL PERSONAL SAVING PER HOUSEHOLD*(thousand 2012 dollars, saar)
Q3
* 12-month sum in personal saving.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 46.
Predicting Consumers
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2430
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REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER HOUSEHOLD(thousand 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Q3
Real Disposable Personal IncomeReal Personal Consumption Expenditures
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 47.
55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER HOUSEHOLD(thousand dollars, saar)
Durable GoodsNondurable GoodsServices
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 48.
Predicting Consumers
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES(as percent of Disposable Personal Income)
Durable + Nondurable GoodsServices
Personal Saving Rate
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 49.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 253
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: HEALTH CARE SERVICES(as percent of nominal Disposable Personal Income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 50.
Predicting Consumers
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2515
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: NONDURABLE GOODS(as percent of Disposable Personal Income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 51.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: FOOD & CLOTHING(as percent of nominal Disposable Personal Income)
Food & Beverage Purchased forOn and Off Premise ConsumptionClothing & Footwear
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 52.
Predicting Consumers
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47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 256
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: DURABLE GOODS(as percent of Disposable Personal Income)
Q3
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 53.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 232
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PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: MOTOR VEHICLE & PARTS(as a percent of Disposable Personal Income)
Q3
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
yardeni.com
Figure 54.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
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CONSUMER SURVEYS: OVERALL INDEXES
Oct
Consumer Sentiment Index**(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index*(1985=100, sa)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.** Quarterly from 1953 through 1977, then monthly data begins in January 1978. Not seasonally adjusted.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
yardeni.com
Figure 55.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
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CONSUMER SURVEYS:CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEXES
Oct
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
Figure 56.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
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CONSUMER SURVEYS:EXPECTATIONS INDEXES
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
yardeni.com
Figure 57.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2320
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CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Oct
TotalPresentExpectations
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
yardeni.com
Figure 58.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: AVAILABLITY OF JOBS*(percent saying so, sa)
Oct
Jobs HardTo Get
Jobs Plentiful
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 59.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 2330
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JOBS AVAILABLE*(percent saying so)
Oct
* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 60.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 230
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Plentiful MinusJobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
Current Conditions Index
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 61.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS AVAILABILITY(percent)
Oct
Oct
Small Business with Job Openings* (3-ma)Consumer Confidence Survey:Jobs Plentiful**
Source: National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
** Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly.
yardeni.com
Figure 62.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(sa)
Unemployment Rate(percent)}
Oct
Jobs Hard to Get*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 63.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(sa)
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, 4-week ma)
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
Oct
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 64.
Predicting Consumers
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250
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AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL
OctOct
Average Hourly Earnings*(yearly percent change)
Consumer Confidence Survey:Jobs Plentiful**
* Production & nonsupervisory workers.** Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
yardeni.com
Figure 65.
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 241.0
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Q3
ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
ECI: Wages & SalariesPrivate Industry(yearly percent change)
Jobs Plentiful*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board.
yardeni.com
Figure 66.
Predicting Consumers
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