Chapter 3: PopulationChapter 3: Population

Key Issue 4:Key Issue 4:

Why might the world face an Why might the world face an overpopulation problem?overpopulation problem?

MalthusMalthus Thomas Malthus (1766-Thomas Malthus (1766-

1834)1834) Essay on the Principle of Essay on the Principle of

Population Population 17981798

Population Growth vs Food Population Growth vs Food SupplySupply Population growing too fast for Population growing too fast for

food supplyfood supply Pop grows geometrically while Pop grows geometrically while

population growths population growths arithmeticallyarithmetically

Example:Example: Today- 1 person, 1 unit of foodToday- 1 person, 1 unit of food 25 years- 2 people, 2 u.o.f.25 years- 2 people, 2 u.o.f. 50 years- 4 people, 3 u.o.f.50 years- 4 people, 3 u.o.f. 75 years- 8 people, 4 u.o.f75 years- 8 people, 4 u.o.f

Consequences:Consequences: Population growth would Population growth would

press against available press against available resourcesresources

Disease, famine, war Disease, famine, war would ensuewould ensue

Neo-Malthusians

Two problems even Two problems even worse than in worse than in Malthus’ timeMalthus’ time Malthus failed to Malthus failed to

anticipate that poor anticipate that poor countries would have countries would have rapid pop growthrapid pop growth

Resource gap wider Resource gap wider than Malthus assumedthan Malthus assumed

World pop is World pop is outstripping resourcesoutstripping resources

Not just food productionNot just food production

Malthus’s CriticsMalthus’s Critics Unrealistically pessimisticUnrealistically pessimistic

Malthus based theory on Malthus based theory on idea that supply of idea that supply of resources is fixed, not resources is fixed, not expandingexpanding

Larger pop can stimulate Larger pop can stimulate economic growtheconomic growth

Malthus’s arithmetic – Malthus’s arithmetic – capitalism (Engels’ capitalism (Engels’ Theory)Theory) Too few people can retard Too few people can retard

the economy just as too the economy just as too manymany

Resources should be Resources should be shared equallyshared equally

Economic developmentEconomic development Poverty, hunger, etc. Poverty, hunger, etc.

caused by lack of economic caused by lack of economic development with unjust development with unjust social and economic social and economic institutions NOT population institutions NOT population growthgrowth

More people = more More people = more power?power? Political leaders in AfricaPolitical leaders in Africa More pop = more men in More pop = more men in

armyarmy

RealityReality

Conditions last half-Conditions last half-century do not century do not support Malthus support Malthus theorytheory

Food production has Food production has increased dramaticallyincreased dramatically Green revolutionGreen revolution Wheat production X2Wheat production X2 Slowed recently?Slowed recently?

Declining Birth RatesDeclining Birth Rates

Food production increased Food production increased more than Malthus more than Malthus predictedpredicted

Malthus’s model expected Malthus’s model expected that the pop would that the pop would quadruple but it didn’tquadruple but it didn’t

Rate of Natural Increase is Rate of Natural Increase is decreasingdecreasing More deaths or less birthsMore deaths or less births Exception LDCsException LDCs

Reasons for declining birth Reasons for declining birth raterate

Economic Economic Development:Development: lowering birth rates lowering birth rates

improve economic improve economic conditionsconditions

women more likely to women more likely to attend schoolattend school

increased knowledge increased knowledge of family planningof family planning

better health care better health care programsprograms

Distribution of Distribution of ContraceptivesContraceptives

World can’t wait for World can’t wait for economic improvementeconomic improvement

LDC’s demand is greater LDC’s demand is greater than supplythan supply Still is occurringStill is occurring

Bangladesh, Colombia, Bangladesh, Colombia, Morocco, ThailandMorocco, Thailand

Has not spread to AfricaHas not spread to Africa Reflects the status of Reflects the status of

womenwomen Contraceptives a religious Contraceptives a religious

issue and political issueissue and political issue

IndiaIndia Became independent Became independent

19471947 Began a population Began a population

planning program in planning program in 1950’s1950’s

Census in 1960’s Census in 1960’s reveals extreme growthreveals extreme growth

During the 1970’s the During the 1970’s the Indian government Indian government began a policy of began a policy of forced sterilization of forced sterilization of any man with three or any man with three or more children.more children.

3.7 million were 3.7 million were sterilized sterilized

Public outcry and Public outcry and oppositionopposition

Today sterilization is Today sterilization is making a comebackmaking a comeback

Propaganda now Propaganda now encouraging “small” encouraging “small” familiesfamilies

• India gendercideIndia gendercide• China’s One Child China’s One Child

PolicyPolicy• Forced abortionForced abortion

World Health ThreatsWorld Health Threats

Epidemiologic Epidemiologic transition:transition: focuses on distinctive focuses on distinctive

causes of death in each causes of death in each stage of the stage of the demographic transitiondemographic transition

Epidemiology:Epidemiology: Branch of medical Branch of medical

science concerned with science concerned with the incidence, the incidence, distribution, and control distribution, and control of diseases that affect of diseases that affect large numbers of peoplelarge numbers of people

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1 & Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1 & 22

Stage 1: Pestilence Stage 1: Pestilence and famineand famine Infectious and parasitic Infectious and parasitic

diseases were diseases were principal causes of principal causes of human deathhuman death

Malthus called these Malthus called these “natural checks”“natural checks”

Example:Example: Black PlagueBlack Plague

Stage 2: Receding Stage 2: Receding PandemicsPandemics Pandemic is a disease Pandemic is a disease

that occurs over a that occurs over a wide and affects a wide and affects a very high proportion very high proportion of the populationof the population

Industrial revolution Industrial revolution helped slow spread of helped slow spread of diseasedisease

Not immediately Not immediately Example:Example:

CholeraCholera

Black PlagueBlack Plague Bubonic plagueBubonic plague

Worst stage 1 caseWorst stage 1 case From Kyrgyzstan From Kyrgyzstan

brought by Tatar armybrought by Tatar army Spread from urban Spread from urban

areas to rural areasareas to rural areas Western Europe 1348Western Europe 1348 Northern Europe 1349Northern Europe 1349

Wiped out entire Wiped out entire villages and familiesvillages and families

United States- 25 million United States- 25 million dieddied

China – 13 million diedChina – 13 million died

CholeraCholera Stage 2Stage 2

Pandemic: disease occurs Pandemic: disease occurs over a wide geographic areaover a wide geographic area

Poor people crowded into Poor people crowded into industrial citiesindustrial cities

½ million in NYC died in 1832½ million in NYC died in 1832 1/81/8thth population of Cairo 1831 population of Cairo 1831

Geographic Models the key to Geographic Models the key to understandingunderstanding

Edwin Chadwick (1800-1890)Edwin Chadwick (1800-1890) Residents in poorer Residents in poorer

neighborhoods had higher neighborhoods had higher incidences of Choleraincidences of Cholera

Dr. John Snow (1813-1858)Dr. John Snow (1813-1858) Mapped distribution of Mapped distribution of

deaths in Londondeaths in London Not a cause of sinful Not a cause of sinful

behaviorbehavior Water pumps the causeWater pumps the cause

Stages 3 & 4Stages 3 & 4 Stage 3: Degenerative and Stage 3: Degenerative and

human-created diseaseshuman-created diseases characterized by a decrease characterized by a decrease

in deaths from infectious in deaths from infectious deaths and chronic disorders deaths and chronic disorders associated with agingassociated with aging

Cardiovascular diseaseCardiovascular disease cancercancer

Decline in infectious Decline in infectious diseases has been sharp diseases has been sharp in stage 3 countriesin stage 3 countries Recently LDCs recently Recently LDCs recently

moved from stage 2 to stage moved from stage 2 to stage 33

Effective vaccinesEffective vaccines

Stage 4: delayed Stage 4: delayed degenerative diseasesdegenerative diseases Cardiovascular disease and Cardiovascular disease and

cancer still linger but life cancer still linger but life expectancy extendedexpectancy extended

Improved healthcareImproved healthcare Improving behaviors as wellImproving behaviors as well

Better dietBetter diet Reduced use of tobacco, Reduced use of tobacco,

alcohol, and exercisealcohol, and exercise

Stage 5 ????Stage 5 ???? Stage of reemergence Stage of reemergence

of infectious diseases of infectious diseases and parasitic diseaseand parasitic disease Old and new have Old and new have

emergedemerged Three reasons:Three reasons:

EvolutionEvolution Microbes evolved, Microbes evolved,

changed = resistantchanged = resistant Example: MalariaExample: Malaria

PovertyPoverty TB in LDCsTB in LDCs Long, expensive Long, expensive

treatmenttreatment Improved travelImproved travel

H1N1H1N1