Chapter 3 - Criminal Profiling

7/27/2019 Chapter 3 - Criminal Profiling

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/chapter-3-criminal-profiling 1/30

Criminal Profiling



What is Criminal

Profiling?

- A technique for predicting the personality,

behavioural, and demographic characteristics of an

individual based upon an analysis of the crimes he or

she has committed.

- Typically used in low volume serious crimes such as

serial murder, serial rape, serial arson



Video –

FBI Profilers



Case

Example North London: Kilburn Area

3 Murders and 26 Rapes

1982 and 1986

Women, Early 20’s

StrangersAttacked During Night

On or Near Railway

Used Mask & Conversation

Violent Rapes

Used a Knife

Talked to victim after rape

Questioned victims about where they

lived

Varied Description of Rapist by

victims

Greeted victims as he passed andthen attacked from behind

Restrained victims by fastening

hands behind their backs

Gave victims instructions on how to

get home



Case Example

Home Location

Marital Status

Friendships

Extracurricular activities

Previous Actions Toward Women

Pornography Interest?

Occupation

Age

Lived in middle of crimes

Married, no kids, later separated

Only two male friends

Martial Arts

Violence towards wife

Collector of hard-core porn

Carpenter with British Rail

28 when arrested (Started age 24)



History of Criminal Profiling

Late 1800’s – Jack the Ripper investigation

1950s – New York Mad Bomber investigation

1970’s – Criminal Profiling program developed at

the FBI

Today - Similar programs developed

internationally (e.g., RCMP’s Behavioural

Science Section)



The Purposes of Profiling

Suspect prioritization

New lines of enquiry

Interview strategies

Predict dangerousness

Flush out offender



Types of Profiling

Inductive Profiling

Profiling an offender from what is known aboutother offenders

Deductive profiling

Profiling an offender from evidence relating to the

crime of that offender



Inductive Profiling80% of serial killers who attack people in parking lots are

white males

Our offender has attacked three people in parking lots,

therefore it is likely that our offender is a white male



Inductive Profiling Clinical

Experience & Intuition

Statistical

Base Rates & Multivariate Analysis



Deductive ProfilingBody of a female victim is found in a locked warehouse

in busy waterfront section

Offender can easily access warehouse and feels

comfortable in the area



Profile Construction

What + Why = Who

Organized – Disorganized Model

Organized Disorganized

Planned Offence Spontaneous Offence

Used Vehicle No Vehicle

High intelligence Low Intelligence

Sexually Adequate Sexually Inadequate



How often is profiling used?

> 100 profilers

FBI, 1000 profiles/year in USA

242 profiles 1981-1995 UK



“Consumer” Satisfaction

Evaluation studies (e.g., Copson, 1995 – N = 182)

83% – “operationally useful”

69% – definitely use profiling again

But……

2.7% profiling helped identify offender

14% helped solve case

16% open new lines of inquiry





Content Categories

Factual/Summary information – case info

Unsubstantiated opinion (e.g., no backing)

Unverifiable (e.g., emotions)

Ambiguous (e.g., vague – “poor skills”)

Opposing alternatives – multiple outs



Results of Content Analysis

3090 statements (Mean =147/profile)

Only 25% statements were predictions about

offender (780)

82% – unsubstantiated

55% – unverifiable

24% – ambiguous

6% – opposing alternatives

1% – fully justified (most from 1 profile)



Profiling Assumptions

Nomothetic:

Similar processes affect all individuals same way

Deterministic:

Behaviour is affected in predictable ways

Non-situational:

Behaviour remains stable across situations





Criminal Consistency Little to no support for trait theory

Situational factors impact criminal actionsacross crimes

Assumptions of profiling in doubt



Does Profiling Work?

Meta-analysis (5 studies)

Statistically combine accuracy scores

Profilers vs. Students, Psychologists, and Police

officers

Used solved cases, administered questionnaire



Does Profiling Work?

Profilers barely outperformed other groups

Low level of objective accuracy in Profilers’ predictions

Profilers don’t want to be tested!



Conclusions

Profiles offer “comfort” to officers but do not helpsolve crimes – redundant

Profiles contain few predictions about offender and

those are often ambiguous, unjustified, or unverifiable.

Profiling lacks theoretical support

“Expert” profilers can barely out-predict universitystudents!



Why is Profiling Used?

Cover all bases

Victim, public, etc.

Feel their nothing to lose

Ignore potential for harm!

Actually believe profilers can help with uncertain

investigation



Informational Mediators

Anecdotes

Exclusive Reporting of Hits

Repetition of Message “Profiling Works!”

Bogus Experts



The Mind Natural Human Reasoning

Interpreting Ambiguous Predictions

Mistaking fiction for Fact





Geographic Profiling

Geographic profiling analyzes crime scene

locations to determine the most probable area of

offender residence





Racial Profiling

Racial profiling refers to any police initiated

action that uses race to make decisions

regarding an individual

Documents

Chapter 3 - Criminal Profiling