CHAPTER 29

Fiscal Policy

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Fiscal policy basics In economics, fiscal policy refers to corrective

actions taken by Congress and the executive branch. Some fiscal policy corrections are automatic, some

are specifically initiated by government. Does NOT involve the Federal Reserve – Fed controls

monetary policy and changes to the money supply.

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Fiscal Policy: Spending / Tax revenue

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Sources of Tax Revenue in theUnited States, 2015

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Government Spending in theUnited States, 2011 Social

insurance programs are government programs intended to protect families against economic hardship.

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The Government Budget and Total Spending

Fiscal policy is the use of tax policy, government transfers, or government purchases of goods and services to shift the aggregate demand curve.

C + G + I + (X-M) = GDP

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Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal PolicyExpansionary Fiscal Policy Can Close a Recessionary Gap

Expansionary fiscal policy increases aggregate demand.

Recessionary gap

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Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal PolicyContractionary Fiscal Policy Can Eliminate an Inflationary Gap

Contractionary fiscal policy decreases aggregate demand.

Inflationary gap

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Lags in Fiscal PolicyIn the case of fiscal policy, there is an important reason for caution: there are significant lag times in its use.

Realize the recessionary/inflationary gap by collecting and analyzing economic data takes timeGovernment develops an action plan takes timeImplementation of the action plan takes time

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Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier

Fiscal policy has a multiplier effect on the economy. Expansionary fiscal policy leads to an increase in real GDP larger than the initial rise in aggregate spending.Conversely, contractionary fiscal policy reduces real GDP larger than the initial reduction in aggregate spending.

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Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier

The size of the shift of the aggregate demand curve depends on the type of fiscal policy. The multiplier on changes in government purchases = 1/MPS.The multiplier on changes in taxes or transfers = MPC/MPS This is because part of any initial change in taxes or transfers is absorbed by savings. Changes in government purchases have a more powerful effect on the economy than equal-sized changes in taxes or transfers.

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How Taxes Affect the Multiplier

Rules governing taxes and some transfers act as automatic stabilizers, and automatically reduce the size of fluctuations in the business cycle. Example: Unemployment compensation

Discretionary fiscal policy arises from deliberate actions by Congress and the Executive branch rather than from the business cycle.Example: Tax stimulus rebates

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Differences in the Effect of Expansionary Fiscal Policies

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The Budget BalanceHow do surpluses and deficits fit into the analysis of fiscal policy? Are deficits ever a good thing and surpluses a bad thing?

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The Budget Balance as a Measure of Fiscal Policy:How to calculate government surplus or deficit

Gov. surplus = tax revenue - gov. spending – transfer payments

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The Budget Balance as a Measure of Fiscal PolicyExpansionary fiscal policies make a budget surplus smaller or a budget deficit bigger. Conversely, contractionary fiscal policies—smaller government purchases of goods and services, smaller government transfers, or higher taxes—increase the budget balance for that year, making a budget surplus bigger or a budget deficit smaller.

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The Business Cycle and the Cyclically Adjusted Budget BalanceSome of the fluctuations in the budget balance are due to fluctuations the business cycle. Governments estimate the cyclically adjusted budget balance, an estimate of the budget balance if the economy were at potential output (LRAS).Translation: Government budget assumes approx. 3% growth in RGDP.

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The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit and the Business CycleThe budget deficit as a percentage of GDP

tends to rise during recessions (indicated by shaded areas) and fall during expansions.

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The U.S. Federal Budget Deficit and the Unemployment Rate

There is a close relationship between the budget balance and the business cycle: A recession moves the budget balance toward deficit, but an expansion moves it toward surplus.

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The Actual Budget Deficit Versus the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Deficit

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Should the Budget Be Balanced?Most economists don’t believe the government should be forced to run a balanced budget every year because this would undermine the role of taxes and transfers as automatic stabilizers.Example: during a serious recession, government would have to raise taxes to maintain a balanced budget.Yet continued, excessive deficits make many people believe some deficit limits are necessary.

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Long-Run Implications of Fiscal PolicyU.S. government budget accounting is calculated on the basis of fiscal years. (Oct. 1 – Sept. 30) (Named for the calendar year in which they end)Persistent budget deficits have long-run consequences because they lead to an increase in public debt. Deficit = yearly imbalanceDebt = total imbalance

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Problems Posed by Rising Government Debt

This can be a problem for two reasons:Public debt may crowd out investment spending, which reduces long-run economic growth. And in extreme cases, rising debt may lead to government default, resulting in economic and financial turmoil.Ex. Argentina in 2001 – defaults on $81 billion

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Deficits and Debt in Practice

A widely used measure of fiscal health is the debt–GDP ratio. This number can remain stable or fall even in the face of moderate budget deficits if GDP rises over time.

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Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP

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U.S. Federal Deficit since 1940

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Implicit Liabilities

Implicit liabilities are spending promises made by governments that are effectively a debt, but they are not included in the usual debt statistics.

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The Implicit Liabilities of the U.S. Government

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The End of Chapter 29