Chapter 19Global Population Projections

Predicting the Future

• Many attempts using economic forecasting, political forecasting, and forecasting using social science have been made to look ahead– Few are very accurate

• All we can do is look at the current trends and predict how they will shape the near future

• Demographic trends– Birth rate– Mortality rate– Other population trends

Frequently Asked Questions

• What are the demographic projections and what social classes are affected?

• What political groups are affected by these trends?

• What cultures are impacted?• How is the environment affected?• Can we provide for these trends in terms of

resource availability?

How Many People Will There Be?

• Currently, the world’s population is growing at a rate of 1.2%

• In 2013 the world’s population was 7.1 billion• The Population Reference Bureau estimates

total global population will be 9.7 billion by the year 2050

Where DO The People Reside?

• Currently, the top five countries in terms of population are:1. China (1.36 billion)2. India (1.28 billion)3. United States (316 million)4. Indonesia (249 million)5. Brazil (196 million)

Where WILL The People Reside?

• According to current trends, in 2050, the top five countries in terms of population will be:1. India (1.65 billion)2. China (1.31 billion) 3. Nigeria (440 million)4. United States (400 million)5. Indonesia (366 million)

By Region (Now)

Population• World: 7.1 billion• More Developed: 1.25 billion• Less Developed: 5.89 billion

• Africa: 1100 million• North America: 352 million• Latin America: 606 million• Asia: 4302 million• Europe: 740 million• Middle East: 536 million• Oceana: 38 million

By Region (2050)

Population• World: 9.7 billion• More Developed: 1.31 billion• Less Developed: 8.42 billion

• Africa: 2431 million• North America: 448 million• Latin America: 780 million• Asia: 5284 million• Europe: 820 million• Middle East: 721 million• Oceana: 58 million