Chapter 11

Regime Transitions 

 

Comparative Politics: Structures and Choices 2eComparative Politics: Structures and Choices 2e

By Lowell BarringtonBy Lowell Barrington

Learning Objectives Define key concepts such as regime transition,

democratic breakdown, and democratization. Discuss why democratization can be

destabilizing for a country. Describe the characteristics of a consolidated

democracy. Summarize the major explanations that focus on

structures and choices of democratization. Outline the historical and recent experiences

with regime transition in the Topic in Countries cases.

Regime Transition

Liberalization Democratization Democratic Breakdown

Fig. 11.1 The Continuum from Authoritarian to Democratic SystemsFig. 11.1 The Continuum from Authoritarian to Democratic Systems

Regime Transition

Democratization Waves of Democratization

Democratization wave Reverse wave

Stages of Democratization The Breakdown of the Nondemocratic System Establishment of the Democratic System Consolidation of Democracy

Think and Discuss

Which of the indicators of democratic consolidation would most convincingly indicate that a democracy is consolidated? Why?

Regime Transition

Democratic Breakdown (Linz) Crisis stage Breakdown stage Reequilibration

Think and Discuss

Could democracy possibly break down Could democracy possibly break down in the United Kingdom? In the United in the United Kingdom? In the United States? How?States? How?

Structure Versus Choice and Internal Versus External

Understanding Regime Transitions

Fig. 11.3 Categorizing Structural and Choice VariablesFig. 11.3 Categorizing Structural and Choice Variables

Understanding Regime Transitions Internal Structural Explanations of

Democratization Economic Structure Political Culture Identity Structure Political Structures: The Institutional Arrangements

of the New Democracy

Understanding Regime Transitions External Structural Explanations of

Democratization The Importance of the International Polar

System Imposition Through Conquest Global Economic Structure International Organizations and Their

Membership Rules IGOs and NGOs

Demonstration Effects (“Contagion”)

Understanding Regime Transitions Internal Choice Explanations of

Democratization Leadership and Elite Choices in the

Nondemocratic System Breakdown Stage Leadership and Elite Choices in the

Establishment and Consolidation Stages Pacts

Think and Discuss

Pacts are, in many ways, undemocratic. They involve a small group of individuals deciding both the institutional arrangements of a new democracy and key economic and social policies. Is it good to build a new democracy in such an undemocratic fashion? Why?

Understanding Regime Transitions External Choice Explanations of

Democratization Role of individuals outside the country Who was most responsible for ending

Communism in Eastern Europe: Reagan, Gorbachev, or John Paul II?

Triggering Events This concept addresses the issue of timing

rather than underlying causes What is the “spark” that lights the “fuel” of

structural and choice factors?

Understanding Regime Transitions Structural and Choice Explanations of

Democratic Breakdown Some of the factors that can bring democracy to a

country can lead it to break down What makes elites and masses turn away from

democracy?

Combining Structural and Choice Arguments

Topic in Countries

The United Kingdom Gradual evolution from strong monarchy to

consolidated democracy over several hundred years

Germany Externally imposed democracy after WWII; today

a highly consolidated democracy India

Democratic system since its independence from the British

Topic in Countries

Mexico Democratization mirrored economic and social

developments; large role of external factors

Brazil Top-down management of democratization; not yet

consolidated, but has survived numerous challenges

Nigeria Currently on 4th attempt at democratization; case

highlights importance of tackling corruption

Topic in Countries

Russia Functional democracy during 1990s, with creeping Functional democracy during 1990s, with creeping

authoritarianism following the Putinauthoritarianism following the Putin’’s win in the 2000 s win in the 2000 presidential electionpresidential election

China No significant experience with democratization; No significant experience with democratization;

economic liberalization may lead to political economic liberalization may lead to political liberalization, but cannot predict whenliberalization, but cannot predict when

Iran Demographic shifts since the Revolution of 1979 favor Demographic shifts since the Revolution of 1979 favor

democratization, although hard-liners have held on to democratization, although hard-liners have held on to their significant institutional powertheir significant institutional power

Think and Discuss

What lesson can be learned from India to What lesson can be learned from India to better understand democratization? Is better understand democratization? Is this lesson applicable to other cases?this lesson applicable to other cases?