CHAPTER 10

Case Example:Chermack’s Scenario

Planning Theory

Chapter 9 – Chermack’s Scenario Planning Theory

Chapter Outline• The Conceptualization Phase Applied• The Operationalize Phase Applied• The Confirm Phase Applied• The Apply Phase Applied• The Refine Phase Applied

The Conceptualize Phase

The Operationalize Phase

Proposition 1: If scenarios are positively associated with learning, then learning will increase as a result of participation in scenario planning.Proposition 2: If learning is positively associated with the alteration of mental models, then mental models change as a result of learning.Proposition 3: If a change in mental models alters decision-structure, then a change in mental model implies a change in the approach to decision making.Proposition 4: If changes in decision making are positively associated with firm performance, then firm performance will improve as a result of altered decision-making strategies.Proposition 5: If scenarios are positively associated with dialogue, conversation quality and engagement, then dialogue, conversation quality, and engagement will increase as a result of participation in scenario planning.

The Apply Phase

The Apply Phase

Application taking place through:Chermack Scenarios [www.thomaschermack.com]

AndThe Scenario Planning Institute [www.scenarioplanning.colostate.edu

The Refine Phase

The refine phase is underway. The theory is relatively new, and confirmation, application and refine activities are all taking place currently.

Conclusion

Chermack’s theory of scenario planning is a good example because it was developed with the phases of theory building in mind. As it is a relatively new example, it does not yet have the track record in the confirm, apply, and refine phases, but shows promise in the work currently being done.