Chapter 1 International economy · 1 Hovedstyret desember 2002 Chapter 1 International economy Hovedstyret desember 2002 60 70 80 90 100 110 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 60 70 80 90

1

Hovedstyret desember 2002

Chapter 1International economy


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80

90

100

110

jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 0260

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90

100

110

1.1 Equity prices and long-terminterest rates in the US, and

commodity prices.Index, week 1 in 2001=100

Wilshire 5000Commodities (industrials)

Source: Norges Bank and EcoWin / The Economist and Wilshire Associates

Long-term rates(10-year)

40

60

80

100

120

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 0240

60

80

100

120

Week 1 in 1995=100

2


1.2 Growth in GDP 2003Estimates from Consensus Economics

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

North America WesternEurope

Asia/Oceania Eastern Europe Latin America Total (70countries)

2001 Estimates 2002 Feb. 02 Aug. 02 Oct. 02 Nov. 02

Source: Consensus Economics


1.3 GDP Growth in Europe in 2003Estimates from Consensus Economics

0

1

2

3

Germany France UK Sweden Trading partners

2001 Estimates 2002 Feb-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Nov-02

Source: Consensus Economics

3


1.4 Industrial productionin the US, Japan and the euro area. Percentage change on 3 months earlier.

Seasonally adjusted. 33-month moving average. Volume

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Sources: EcoWin/ Federal Reserve, Ministry of International Trade and Ind and EUR-OP/EUROSTAT

US

Japan

Euro area


1.5 Producer and consumer prices25 trading partners

Percentage change on same month previous year

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Sources: Datastream and Norges Bank

CPI

PPI

4


1.6 Key rates and expected change in selected countries

Source: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

1) Not adjusted for any term premium

nanaNone-1.000.25-1.25Switzerland

3½2¾None0.502.75Canada4¾4½None0.504.75Australia

nana-0.50-3.806.3Iceland

4 3½-0.500.003.75Sweden3 2¾-0.50-0.652.95Denmark

4 ¼3¾None0.004.00UK2¾2½-0.50-0.502.75Euro area

5¾

01 ¼

Expected level in 3 mths 12 mths 1)

5¾None1.005.75New Zealand

0None0.00Approaching zeroJapan2 -0.50-0.501.25US

Change sinceExecutiveBoard meeting30.10.02

Changesince01.01.02

Key rate


US

5


1.7 Quarterly change in GDP in the US Contribution to growth in volume, annualised. Per cent.

Seasonally adjusted

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

mar 00 sep 00 mar 01 sep 01 mar 02 sep 02

Public consumption and investmentNet exportsInventoriesPrivate investmentPrivate consumptionBNP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Norges Bank


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1.8 US labour productivityPrivate sector excluding agriculture. Rise on same quarter previous year

Source: EcoWin / FED.

6


1.9 US - Consumer confidenceIndex values. Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted.

Consumer confidence 1985=100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20020

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Source: Datastream / The Conference Board.


1.10 US – CPIMonthly figures. Seasonally adjusted

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 020

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

jan mar mai jul sep nov jan mar mai jul sep nov-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

Percentage change on same month previous year

Percentage change on previous month

Source: EcoWin \ Bureau of Labour Statistics.

7


Euro area


Source: Eurostat / EcoWin

1.11 Euro area – quarterly change in GDPContribution to volume growth, annualised. Seasonally adjusted

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Net exports Public consumptionPrivate consumption InventoriesInvestment GDP

8


1.12 Industrial productionVolume. Seasonally adjusted. Percentage growth on same month of

previous year.

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Source: EcoWin / Deutsche Bundesbank, Eurostat and INSEE.

Euro area

France

Germany


1.13 Industrial confidence in the euro area and IFO index for Germany

Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200370

80

90

100

110

Euro area(left-hand scale)

Source: EcoWin/EU Commission and IFO National Institute of Research

IFO index(right-hand scale)

9


1) According to labour force surveySource: EcoWin/Eurostat, Federal Labour Office and National Employment Office.

1.14 Unemployment 1)

Per cent. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures

7

9

11

13

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20027

9

11

13

France

Germany

Euro area


1.15 Euro area – Retail tradeVolume. Percentage change from same month of previous year. Seasonally

adjusted. Monthly figures

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: EcoWin/ECB.

6-month moving average

10


1.16 Euro area - harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) Percentage change on same month of previous year. Monthly figures

0

1

2

3

1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

Source: EcoWin/Eurostat.

HICP

HICP excl energy and food


1.17a Euro area – key rateShort -term and long -term interest rates. Daily figures

0

2

4

6

1999 2000 2001 20020

2

4

6

Source: EcoWin/Hanson & Partners AB.

Key rate

Long-term rate

Short-term rate

11


1.17b Comparison of various European countries

53.81.45.01.71.7Sweden

....3.01.2-0.2Switzerland

38.5-1.15.3 (Sep)1.41.5UK

69.6-2.38.42.30.8Euro area

44.02.04.72.71.5Denmark

42.43.69.11.71.6Finland

..12.43.9 (Sep)1.32.0Norway

Public debt2002

Gov’t budgetbalance

2002

UnemplOct 2002

Growth in HICP

Oct 2002

Growth in GDP2002

The highest and lowest values appear in bold to illustrate the spread.

Sources: OECD, Eurostat, EU Commission, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway


42.43.69.11.71.6Finland105.6-0.1 6.91.30.7Belgium63.2-1.8 4.11.80.7Austria55.00.0 11.73.93.6Greece35.3-1.0 4.44.43.6Ireland57.4-3.44.94.10.4Portugal105.81.4 5.04.01.8Spain51.0-0.8 2.4 3.60.1Netherlands110.3-2.4 ..2.80.3Italy58.6-2.7 8.81.91.0France60.9-3.88.31.30.4Germany69.6 -2.38.4 2.30.8Euro area

Public debt2002

Gov’t budget balance

2002

Unempl. Oct 2002

Growth in HICP

Oct 2002

GDP growth in 2002

1.17c Comparison of various European countries

12


United Kingdom


1.18 United Kingdom – GDP growthAverage quarterly growth – annualised rate

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 - 2000 2000 - 2002 Q3

Services GDP Manufacturing

Source: Office for National Statistics

13


1.19 United Kingdom - GDP Percentage change on same quarter previous year

- 0.1

- 1.6

- 5.6

4.6

4.1

1.4

Q2

1.5Imports

0Exports

- 6.7Private investment

3.2Public demand

3.8Private consumption

1.8GDP

Q3



80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 200280

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1.20 United Kingdom - Nominal effective exchange rate

A rise in value denotes appreciationJanuary 1990 = 100


95

96

97

98

99

100

101

jan mar mai jul sep nov

1. January 2002 = 100

14


1.21 United Kingdom - RPIXPercentage change on same month previous year

-2

0

2

4

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-2

0

2

4

6


Services

Goods

RPIX


1.22 United Kingdom - Unemployment

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

2

4

6

8

10


Labour force survey (ILO)

Registeredunemployed

15


1.23 United Kingdom – House pricesPercentage change on same month previous year

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-10

0

10

20

30

40

Source: Office for National Statistics/Halifax

Nation-wide

Halifax


1.24 United Kingdom – lending to individualsPercentage change on same month previous year

8

10

12

14

16

Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 028

10

12

14

16

Source: Bank of England

Total

Secured on dwellings

Consumer credit

16


-2

0

2

4

6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: Bank of England

MEW -as percentage of post-tax income

2nd quarter 2002 (in billions)

Net secured borrowing : £18.6 Not invested in housing stock : £10.6

Distributed by:* Purchase of securities* Repayment of loans without collateral* Consumption

1.25 United Kingom – Mortgage equity withdrawal(MEW)


1.26 United Kingdom – current account balancePercentage of GDP

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Source: OECD EO 72

17


1.27 United Kingdom – wage growth in economy as a wholePercentage change on same month previous year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

4

5

6

7



Sweden, Denmark and Finland

18


1.28 Industrial productionPercentage change from same month previous year.

Seasonally adjusted. 3 month moving average

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1997 1999 2001-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Sources: SCB / Statistics Finland / Statistics Denmark

Sweden

DenmarkFinland (incl. power plants)


1.29 Retail tradeVolume. Percentage change on same month previous year.

Seasonally adjusted. 3 month moving average

-3

0

3

6

9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002-3

0

3

6

9


Sweden

Denmark

Finland

19


1.30 Consumer price indexPercentage change on same month previous year

0

1

2

3

4

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

1

2

3

4


Denmark, HICPSweden, UND1X

Finland, HICP


1.31 Key rates Daily figures

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

2

4

6

8

10

Sources: EcoWin/Hanson & Partners AB.

Denmark

Sweden

20


Oil


1.32 Oil price, Brent BlendUSD per barrel. Daily figures

0

10

20

30

40

0

10

20

30

40

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Sources: Norges Bank, Telerate and IPE

Futures prices6. December 2002

IR 3/2002

21


1.33 Iraq’s oil productionIn million barrels per day

0

1

2

3

4

jan 00 jul 00 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 020

1

2

3

4

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Source: Energy Information Agency

Annual figures

Monthly figures


1.34a OPEC 10 output and quotas and expected call on OPEC 10

Million barrels per day

20

22

24

26

28

30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200320

22

24

26

28

30

Sources: Bloomberg, IEA and Norges Bank

November report

October report (EIA)

OPEC's quota

OPEC output

Expected callon OPEC 10

22


1.34b Global oil productionOctober 2002

Source: International Energy Agency

US 10%Mexico 5%

Norway 4%

Russia 10%

China 4%

Other 28 %OPEC 39%

Saudi Arabia 25.6%Iran 12,8%

Iraq 7.7%

UAE 7.7%

Venezuela 7.7%Other 38.5%


1.34c Production and net export of oil(incl. NGL/condensate)

2001. Millions of barrel per day

0 2 4 6 8 10

Saudi Arabia

US

Russia

Iran

Mexico

Norway

China

Venezuela

Canada

UAE

Source: Petroleum Economics Ltd

0 2 4 6 8

Saudi Arabia

Russia

Norway

Iran

Venezuela

UAE

Nigeria

Iraq

Kuwait

Mexico

Production Net exports

23


1.35 Non-commercial participants’ net positions in thefutures market for WTI* so far in 2002

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

jan. feb. mar. apr. mai. jun. jul. aug. sep. okt. nov.15

20

25

30Oil price (right hand scale)

Net longpositions

Net short positions

Sources: Energy Information Administration, NYMEX * = West Texas Intermediate

USD/barrelNumber of contracts


Source: U.S. Department of Energy

1.36 US crude oil stocks Million barrels. Monthly figures

260

280

300

320

340

360

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des260

280

300

320

340

360

2002Highest and lowest values in the last five years

24


Source: International Energy Agency

1.37 OECD total crude oil stocks Million barrels. Monthly figures

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep okt nov des750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

2002Highest and lowest values in the last five years


1.38a Probability for the oil price in March 2003 at 6 December 2002USD per barrel - West Texas Intermediate

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60USD

Sources: Norges Bank and New York Mercantile Exchange

67 % 33 %

Prob

abilit

ype

r USD

Assumptions in IR 3/2002 adjusted for the differential between WTI and Brent Blend

25


1.38b Probability for the oil price inJune 2003 at 6 December 2002

USD per barrel - West Texas Intermediate

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60USD


64 % 36 %

Prob

abilit

ype

r USD

Assumptions in IR 3/2002 adjusted for the differential between WTI and Brent Blend


1.38c Probability for the oil price in December 2004 at 6 December 2002

USD per barrel - West Texas Intermediate

0

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60USD


35 % 65 %

Prob

abilit

ype

r USD Assumptions in IR 3/2002

adjusted for the differential between WTI and Brent Blend

26


1.39 Oil price and average price ofexported Norwegian natural gas

Quarterly figures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

Brent Blend(left-hand scale)

Natural gas

USD/barrel Kr/Sm3

Sources: Statstics Norway and Norges Bank


1.40 Oil price and natural gas price in the UK, Monthly figures

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20020,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

Natural gas

Brent Blend (left-hand scale)

USD/barrel

Sources: International Petroleum Exchange, Norges Bank

GBP/Therm

Documents

Chapter 1 International economy · 1 Hovedstyret desember 2002 Chapter 1 International economy Hovedstyret desember 2002 60 70 80 90 100 110 jan 01 jul 01 jan 02 jul 02 60 70 80 90