Chapter 1-3 “Population & Settlement: People on the Land”According to the UN, world population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by the year 2050. What challenges do you see if this prediction proves accurate?

After Today…

Students should be able to predict future population trends.

Students will discuss consequences / challenges based upon future population trends.

Students will fully comprehend the 4 phases of the Demographic Transition Model.

Basic World Pop. Stats…

World Population Clock 2013 Pop. Map with 2050 projections

World Population Milestones Note the time it took to add each

additional billion after the first in 1827!

Basic Population terms/concepts RNI = Rate of Natural increase. It is found by

taking the number of births and subtracting the number of deaths (does not account for migration into or out of a country).

TFR = Total Fertility Rate. This is a measure of the average # of children a woman will have in her child bearing years.

Youthfulness of a population is a measure of the % of the total population that is <15 yrs. Of age…it is vital to maintaining productive stability in a nation.

Top 10 Countries (Source USA Census Bureau)

China 1.3 Billion

India 1.2 B USA 313 Million Indonesia 246 M Brazil 203 M

Pakistan187 M

Bangladesh159 M

Nigeria155 M

Russia139 M

Japan126 M

Future??? (2050 according to Population Reference Bureau)

India 1.7 Billion

China 1.3 B USA 403 Million Nigeria 390 M Indonesia 293 M

Pakistan 275 M

Brazil 223 M

Bangladesh 194 M

Philippines 155 M

Democratic Republic of the Congo 149 M

Demographic Transition Model Phase #1 – Pre Industrial High Birth Rates High Death Rates Slow Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) Usually associated with poor public

health measures like lack of sanitation.

AKA – Less Developed Countries, 3rd World Countries

Angola source CIA Factbook

Median Age – 18.1

Life expectancy at birth – 38.76

Total fertility Rate – 5.97 children / woman

Demographic Transition Model Phase #2 – Transitional High Birth Rates Death Rates Fall (Higher Life

expectancies) Rapid Rise in the RNI Associated with improved economic

and social conditions

India

Median Age – 26.5 years

Life expectancy at birth – 67.14 years

Total Fertility Rate – 2.58 children per woman

Demographic Transition Model Phase #3 – Transitional Birth Rates Begin to Fall rapidly Death Rates Fall slightly RNI begins to level off In an urbanized and industrial

society people begin to see the benefits of smaller families.

Demographic Transition Model Phase #4 – Industrial Low Birth Rates Low Death Rates RNI is relatively flat or even in slight

decline Usually associated with highly

industrialized and highly urbanized countries.

Japan

Median Age – 44.8

Life expectancy at birth – 82.25

Total fertility Rate – 1.21 children / woman

Migration – movement into or out of a country – also affects population PUSH FORCES:

drive people from their homelands.

EXAMPLES: civil war or unrest; environmental disasters; unemployment; ?

PULL FORCES: things that attract migrant populations to certain locations.

EXAMPLES: better economic opportunity; better health services; better educational opportunities; personal & political freedom; ?

Urbanization Migration of people from rural areas to

urban areas. Growth of cities.URBANIZED POPULATION = % of an

area’s total population that lives in cities. Currently about 50% of the world’s

population lives in urban areas. This number is increasing at a rapid

rate throughout the entire worldURBAN PRIMACY – a city that is

disproportionately large & dominates economic, political & cultural activities.

Overurbanization

When the urban population grows more quickly than support services such as housing, transportation, waste disposal and water supply

Fairly common in 3rd World Countries

Squatter Settlements

Illegal developments of makeshift housing on land neither owned nor rented by the inhabitants.

Fairly common in many LDC’s or 3rd World Countries