Chantell Ilbury Independent Scenario Strategist Forging the Social Pact

Chantell IlburyIndependent Scenario Strategist

Forging the Social Pact

CONSTRUCTING THE FUTURE

ONE WORLD

DIVIDED WORLD

V (2014)

U (2020)

New Balls PleaseHard Times

Ultraviolet UVForked Lightning

Global Scenarios

©Copyright Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter - www.mindofafox.com

• A good quality of education

• A strong work ethic and spirit of entrepreneurship

• A high rate of savings ( and early access to capital for businesses that require it )

• Adequate infrastructure to support a high-growth economy

• Being an export-orientated global player that supplies goods and/or services to foreign markets that they can’t get elsewhere

• A dual-logic economy ( big and small business work in constructive partnership )

• Social harmony ( citizens feel they are part of one team with a common vision )

• Competitive personal and company tax rates

• An attractive environment for foreign direct investment

• Efficient government

Characteristics of a winning nation


Relegation Zone

COMPETITIVENESS +VE

COMPETITIVENESS -VE

INTERNAL HARMONY

INTERNAL CONFLICT

Premier League

(top 57 countries)

X

Second Division

Failed State

“Arab Spring”

Inclusive leadership

Pockets of excellence

Balanced economy

South African Scenarios


Bluff Royal Flush

Fold Raise

Good quality education system

Poor quality education system

Equal societyUnequal society

Private Schools

A Few Public

Schools

• Opportunities for all

• Barriers to access opportunities

Majority of Public Schools

1. Populations are ageing• US - issues around state funding of medical care and

social security• China - One-child policy and demographic cliff• Africa, South America and Indonesia still young and

growing populations• Increasing longevity goes hand in hand with rising

income levels2. More economies will return to a steady

state• Japan has led the way, with Europe about to follow suit• Facing a relatively flat economic universe driven by

static populations in more advanced economies3. We have moved from the Age of

Knowledge to the Age of Intelligence• Internet has changed access to knowledge –

differentiator is way we use it and create new knowledge

• Education about connecting dots – intelligence and cognitive skills

• Companies need intelligent strategy to survive

21st Century Megatrends


4. It’s about defending, not growing wealth• Prices and inflation high, interest rates low, retirement

age up• More difficult to make money with money• In a steady-state universe, need to be a value-driven

investor intent on stocks offering a satisfactory dividend yield and modest price-earnings ratio

5. Education out of sync with job market and changing nature of work• Worldwide, youth unemployment is an issue• Schools educating for outdated job market• Expect social unrest among young citizens

6. A second, more dangerous scramble for resources• ‘Easy’ days are over – need to access more remote

deposits• Growing scarcity of water and food• Marine mining and offshore drilling focus areas for

conflict7. Wars will continue with more

sophisticated weapons• Technology changes conventional weapons to WMDs• Ability to kill forever improving



8. Like black swans, natural disasters will come out of the blue• Natural disasters + increasing population = high death

tolls • Lagging shift in policies around super-emitters• Short-term government policies clash with long-term

climate change realities9. Dictatorial regimes will become rarer, but

not necessarily replaced by democracy• Arab spring has resulted in change…but to what?• Social media a force of change

10. Work/life balance is now even more elusive• Technological connectivity means working 24/7• Work intruding into every aspect of life, with little

time for switch off• The strain is showing



What partnerships are needed to adapt the education system to meet the realities of the job market and the changing nature of work?

The critical component to forging a social pact

1

2

34

5

6

7

8 9

10Meaning of

Winning

Context

Scope

PlayersRules of the Game

Key Uncertainties

Scenarios

S.W.O.T

Options Decisions

Playing the Game

Defining the Game

The Conversation Model


Documents

Chantell Ilbury Independent Scenario Strategist Forging the Social Pact