2010$

2007$

2006$

2004$

2002$

2001$

1997$1995$

1992$

1990$

1989$

1986$

1981$

2014$

Ebacc$Certs$

Diploma$

BSF$

ECM$

6$Key$Skills$

AVCE$

EMA$Dearing$Review$

FEFC$

Parents$Charter$

GNVQ$

CPVE$

TVEI$

The post-16 landscape and what’s on the horizon.

Rising Costs and Reducing Funding

2015/2016 Costs will increase (non-pay inflation, employers pension contributions, employers pension contributions, incremental drift etc.) – a minimum of 4.5% in an average school? Post-16 funding likely to decrease (£450 million savings required from DfE in next round of spending reductions, much of which will be achieved from savings already made, but post-16 funding vulnerable) Pre-16 funding – no protection for inflation. Increasing numbers of pupils (population increases) to be funded, but cash limited budgets. Greater competition for post-16 students from colleges, apprenticeship/training providers, other schools?

All Change in the Curriculum Vocational

! Fewer Qualifications Offered ! Introduction of examinations/ end testing

A-levels

!  New content and new assessment phased in over three years !  13 new specifications from September 2015,10 from September

2016, 22 from September 2017

Post- 16 Maths and English

!  Condition of Funding !  Headline Performance Measure

New GCSEs

! English and Maths from September 2015 ! 17 new GCSE areas with new specification from September 2016,

15 from September 2017

Greater Accountability

New Performance Tables – Fully implemented in 2017

Student'

Progress'

A.ainment' Eng/Maths'

Progress'

Reten7on' Des7na7ons'

Value$added$ Average$Grade$$A*RC$

Improvement$in$grades

Students$retained$to$end$of$studies$

%$of$students$in$sustained$desUnaUons$

New Ofsted Inspection Framework '

! Grade for Sixth Form implemented September 2014 $

! New common inspection framework for all providers from September 2015

Economic group sizes?

Approximate figures

Average teacher cost (this includes all teaching staff, and

employers on-costs)

£46,000

How many teachers do we need to teach the lessons a post-16 student

attends (say 18)

Teachers teach on average 18 periods, so we need 1 teachers, at a cost

of £46,000

How many post-16 pupils (@ £4200) each?

11

How many post-16 pupils are needed to cover all the costs (add 44%)

20 = Economic Group size

Economic A levels or Acceptable Subsidy? Example A break-even sixth form offering 20 AS/ A level subjects needs around 240 students studying AS/ A levels, and an income of around£1,000,000. Offering 20 AS/ A level subjects, but with only 150 students studying AS/ A levels costs the same, but the income is £370,000 too low. Is a subsidy of £370,000 the right thing to do?

One$supervising$

support$assistant$

Geography$fieldwork$on$the$Coastal$Weather$topic$

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18 o

r

Num

ber o

f Sch

ools

and

Col

lege

s

Number of Students in Group

Group Sizes in State Funded Schools and Colleges in England (Drama, ICT, PE)

Drama & Theatre Studies

Information & Communications Technology

Physical Education/Sports Studies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

40 to 99

100 to

199

200 to

299

399 to

400

300 to

499

500 to

599

600 to

699

700 to

799

800 to

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900 to

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Number of AS Entries from an Institution

Percentage of institutions with positive value-added compared with the number of AS-level

entries from those institutions -National

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

30 to 74 75 to 149

150 to 224

225 to 299

300 to 374

375 to 449

450 to 524

525 to 649

650 to 999

Over 1000

Perc

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with

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itive

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dded

Number of A-level Entries from an Institution

Percentage of institutions with positive value-added compared with the number of A-level entries from those institutions -

National

Performance table data indicates that there were over 16,000 A-level groups (Yr13) of fewer than 4 students, when around 20 is the break-even group size. Performance table data indicates that there were around 900 school sixth forms with fewer than 60 students studying A Levels (Yr13) – when less than 100 students is uneconomic.

Amongst institutions with fewer than 150 A-level entries (around 50 students), students make good progress (A-level value-added) in less than 10% of institutions. Amongst institutions with fewer than 300 AS-level entries, students make good progress in less than 15% of those institutions Amongst institutions with more than 450 A-level entries, students make good progress in the majority of them. In sixth forms with fewer than 50 students in yr 13, less than 50% of students attained the minimum standard. However, in sixth forms with more than 100 students between 80% and 100% of students attained the minimum standard.

0

2

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6

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Average'Subject'Group'Sizes'in'Schools'and'Colleges'

(Yr'13)'

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 N

umbe

r of G

roup

s

Number of Students in Group

Group Sizes (from number of exam entries)

A Level AS Level

Efficiency Issues? Study programmes – student ownership? Tutors supervise ‘learning plans’ of students to ensure they are all full time, and everything that should be included, is included.

Cutting Costs – Range of choices? Class sizes? Student numbers? The curriculum offer may need to be reduced to ensure economic class sizes? Some courses may have to declared full, to prevent the need for additional classes in the same subject which reduce class sizes? Recruit more students without putting on more courses?

Enrichment and support, not delivered by teachers. Use less expensive staff? Workshops, study sessions, sports activities, work experience support and tutorial need not be delivered by teachers?

Changing curriculum, changing outcomes?

"  Number of A-level passes in England has fallen by 4% since 2011

"  2014 the percentage pass rate at A level fell (for the first time in decades)

"  Proportion of students achieving 5 A*-C at GCSE fell for the first time in decades, by 6.6% from 59.2% to 52.6%

"  record number of students accepted in to UK universities this autumn, with numbers up by 17,000 to exceed 500,000 for the first time.

"  Almost seven per cent of all school leavers in England got into university holding BTEC qualifications this year, with overall numbers soaring by 20 per cent in a year and more than doubling since 2006

" Getting easier to secure HE place

"  Controls limiting the number of students that each university can recruit are abolished for the first time

1985

1990

1984

When did they do their A-levels?

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Perc

enta

ge p

ass

rate

Year

A Level Pass Rates from 1951

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001

Num

ber

Year

A-level passes AS passes

Changes in A level Entry Numbers from 2009 to 2014

Entries in 2009

Entries in 2014 Change

General Studies 52484 24101 -54%

Physical Education 21609 13198 -39%

Law 14759 10351 -30%

German 5119 3716 -27%

French 12231 9078 -26%

Accounting and Finance 3658 2748 -25%

ICT 9111 6935 -24%

Design and Technology 15445 11832 -23%

Drama 15298 11806 -23%

Media/Film/Television Studies 25056 19666 -22%

Music 9019 7184 -20%

Changes in A level Entry Numbers from 2009 to 2014

Entries in 2009

Entries in 2014 Change

Further Mathematics 9443 13031 38%

Economics 17696 22884 29%

Chemistry 37141 47144 27%

Physics 25620 32226 26%

Mathematics 64517 79036 23%

Biological Sciences 47978 55847 16%

Other modern languages 6090 7066 16%

Religious Studies 17488 19838 13%

Spanish 6089 6617 9%

History 42841 46003 7%

A level Entry numbers in 2014 compared with AS Entry numbers in 2013

Other social studies 37%

General Studies 38%

Accounting and Finance 46%

Computing 48% ICT 54% Law 55% Other Science 57% Psychology 58% Sociology 60%

Home Economics 61%

Physics 62%

Physical Education 62%

Design and Technology 63%

All Subjects 66%

A level Entry numbers in 2014 compared with AS Entry numbers in 2013

Other modern languages 150%

Further Mathematics 88%

Classical Studies 82%

Drama 76%

History 76%

English 74%

Government and Politics 73%

Mathematics 72%

Religious Studies 72%

Geography 72%

Economics 71%

Spanish 70%

All Subjects 66%

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Number of A level Subjects in Schools and Colleges

“We estimate that the cost to the exchequer of post-16 learning aims that were started but not successfully completed to be approximately £814 million in 2012/13. This represented around 12% of the funding allocated to provision for 16-18 year olds.”

Achievement and retention in post 16 education A report for the Local Government Association February 2015

Students who did not achieve grades A*-C in GCSE at the end of KS4, and continued to study Maths and/or English at

College or in the sixth form

English Attainment

Entered A*-C in GCSE

Higher level of learning

Same level of learning

Lower level of learning

52% 6.5% 15.8% 9.2% 27.4%

Maths Attainment

Entered A*-C in GCSE

Higher level of learning

Same level of learning

Lower level of learning

53% 7.0% 15.0% 9.9% 27.8%

Accountability'–'Reten7on'

(retain(the(student,(and(as(full(0mer!)(

Academic Core aim - an AS, or an A2 or a GCSE…………….

Vocational Core aim – a vocational course or work experience

Ofsted – from September 2015

“grade descriptors below reflect those in the further education and skills handbook”

“Good” Progress on level 3 qualifications in terms of value added is above average or improving across most subjects. Leaders plan and manage individualised study programmes

! Study programmes

! Progress

! 16-19 minimum standards

Planned$hours$are$those$that$are$Umetabled,$organised$and/or$supervised$by$the$insUtuUon,$and$take$place$in$line$with$the$insUtuUon’s$normal$working$pa]ern$to$deliver$the$study$programme$during$the$funding$year$2015/16,$and$can$include$the$following.$$! planned$tutor$led$acUvity$on$qualificaUon$bearing$courses$

for$the$student$$! planned$hours$of$tutorials,$work$experience$or$supported$

internship,$and$planned$hours$on$other(acUviUes$that$are$organised$and$provided$by$the$insUtuUon,$such$as$sport$or$volunteering.$

Argument for Retaining an Independent Sixth Form

Argument for Collaborating in a Joint Sixth Form Centre

Teacher recruitment is easier if post-16 teaching is on offer.

Teachers can be better paid in more economically sound provision and thus more easily recruited.

Sixth formers can act as “ambassadors” in school. Year 11 students have something to aspire to.

Year 11 students can show greater maturity as the eldest in school. The interactions between pre-16 and post-16 students are not always positive!

Having sixth formers in school can inspire year 11.

The opportunity to go to “college” can be motivating.

Teachers benefit from the challenge of having some teaching of more academically challenging material

Teachers become more specialised and thus more expert rather than thinly stretched.

Teachers can be motivated to get better results in year 11 to boost sixth form numbers

The most able staff may be teaching sixth formers, to the detriment of year 11.

A school with a sixth form is more attractive for recruitment to year 7

A school with guaranteed places in a strong collaborative sixth form will be more attractive

The pastoral care of students is better informed from their previous years in school

Students benefit from a ‘fresh start’ and the ability to leave behind earlier aspects of their childhood and be more “grown up”

The ethos of the school is improved by having sixth formers present

Students become more mature and self-reliant in a “college” environment

The post-16 landscape and what’s on the horizon.