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NOEVEMBER 2015
A FISTFUL OF COMPOSITES ...
…AND A FEW TONS MORE
Information | Analytics | Expertise
Dr. Mark Morgan, MD, IHS Chemical, EMEA
+44 (0) 1344 328341
© 2015 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
A PRESENTATION FOR THE
ADVANCED
ENGINEERING UK
EVENT 2015
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
2
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
3
© 2014 IHS
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
4
AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
100+ years’ experience delivering unrivaled news, insight and intelligence on defense and security equipment, markets, industries and risk
CHEMICAL
Over 200 leading industry authorities creating integrated views and analysis across more than 300 chemical markets and 2,000 processes for 95 industries
FINANCE Research on 200+ countries and territories with harmonized indicators from IHS analysts and economists
TECHNOLOGY
World’s largest electronics component database with more than 350 million parts
AUTOMOTIVE
The world’s largest team of automotive analysts with hundreds of experts located in 15 key markets around the world covering the entire automotive value chain
ENERGY
Extensive Oil & Gas
well information on
5.5+ million wells
worldwide dating
back as far as 1860
MARITIME
World’s largest maritime database with an information gathering heritage of 250+ years with comprehensive information on all vessels 100 GT and over
CARBON FIBRE APPLICATION
© 2014 IHS
Interconnections within IHS and Links to IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
5
Agriculture
Electronics
& Telecom
Government
Metals &
Mining Healthcare
Financial
Military
&
Security
Chemicals
Automotive
Energy
Coal
Transportation
Shipping
Aerospace
& Defense
Construction
Power &
Utilities
Energy
Oil &
Gas
Consumer
& Retail
IHS Chemical is linked
upstream into energy,
refined products and
downstream into
aerospace, automotive,
defence and consumer
industries.
© 2014 IHS
Composites
Compounds
Fabrication
Tooling
The combination of IHS Chemical & IHS AD&M covers costs in defence supply chain from raw materials to platforms
6
Refining Petrochemical
Industry
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Advanced Plastics, PEEK, etc
Carbon Fibres
Aramid/UHMWPE Fibres
Specialised Epoxy Resins
Coal (China)
Aviation Primary
& Secondary
Structures
Individual Protection
Composite AVF Armour Battlefield
Electronics
New Platform Development
Survivability Systems
IHS Chemical already provides consulting & subscription services to many chemicals that serve
the defence & aerospace industry covering the value chain as far as fabrication in some cases:
• On a global and regional basis, IHS Chemical tracks, models and forecasts markets, production costs,
technology developments, together with price and margin forecasts for multiple chemicals including
advanced materials and composites. Its client base is very broad but includes:
‒ Carbon fibre producers: Toray, Hexcel, Cytec, Mitsubishi, Dow/Akza, etc.
‒ Aramid/UHMWPE producers: Teijin, DuPont, Honeywell, DSM, etc.
‒ Specialty epoxy resin producers: Cytec, Huntsman, Momentive, etc.
‒ Advanced plastics producers: Victrex, Solvay, Sabic, BASF, Toray, etc.
‒ Composites and fabricators: Gurit, ATK, Goodrich, Tencate, etc.
• The tie-up with IHS AD&M (formerly IHS Jane’s) provides an extension of the value chain to take cost,
price and market analysis down the chain in project costs, budgets and margins for OEMS, defence
contractors through to client/principals, government agencies, etc.
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
7
© 2014 IHS
As an example , the carbon fiber value chain is complex
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
8
Carbon Fiber
Producer Filament,
Tow, Cut Tow
Pre-preg Manufacturer
Weavers, Knitters,
and Other Finishers of Dry Fibers
Filament Winders
Pultruders Others
Fabricator Molder
Original
Equipment Manufacturer
Specialty Engineering
Design Companies
End-Use Manufacturer
Aircraft, Aerospace & Military
Sports and
Recreation
Industrial Automotive
Other Commercial
IHS Chemical can model each step of the
supply chain and provide an independent
view of cost to OEMs and parties along
the chain
© 2014 IHS
Advanced plastics also serve defence, Aerospace Sectors as well as automotive for specific lightweighting solutions
9
Defence & Aerospace span Multiple Application Segments
LDPE
Amorphous Semi-Crystalline
PVC
PS
PA66
PEEK
PP
LLDPE
ABS
HDPEHIPS
HPPA
PPSPSU
PEI
PES
PC
PC/ABSPMMA
ABS/PAPOM
PPE
PC/PET
TPE
PBT
Increasing
Performance/
Price
Ultra-high performance
polymer market around
720 000 metric tons
Engineering
Thermoplastics
~12 million metric tons
Commodity Polymers
~200 million metric tons
Classification of Engineering
Plastics
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
• In aerospace, tier 2 composite producers and Tier 3 providers of fibres and pre-
pregs are looking for new and improved performance from upstream materials:
‒ Tencate offers thermoplastic pre-pregs based on PEI and PPS
‒ Cytec offers thermoplastic pre-pregs based on PEEK and PEKK
‒ Hexcel offers a range of ATP pre-pregs
• There are a limited number of advanced polymer producers:
‒ PEKK: Cytek and Solvay
‒ PEEK: Victrex, Evonik, Solvay and now Dalian Polymer
‒ PEI: Sabic Innovative Plastics
‒ LCPs: Sumitomo and Solvay
‒ PPS: Solvay and Toray
‒ PSU/PES: Solvay, BASF and Sumitomo
• In the automotive sector there is a drive to combine advanced fibres more middle
tier engineering polymers as well as thermosets like unsaturated polyesters.
10
As OEMs look for higher temperature performance there is increased focus on advanced thermoplastics
© 2014 IHS 11
Forecasting Carbon Fibre and Composite Pricing
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Acrylonitrile, 300 ktpa Carbon Fibre, 5 ktpa
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs
Depreciation SG&A TS&D
Aircraft/Aerospace
19%
Renewable Energy
17%
Other Industrial
17%
Sports Goods/Others
12%
Civil Engineering
10%
Automotive9%
PressureVessels, etc
7%
Oil and Gas7%
Marine2%
N. America32%
W. Europe35%
China18%
Japan8%
Other Asia4%
ROW3%
Carbon Fibre Production Costs
Building Block Pricing
Carbon Fibre Markets
• Most carbon fibre production is based on a
carbon fibre building block. Most CF
producers and some customers buy the
IHS Chemical program for acrylonitrile to
help understand future costs and pricing.
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
Understanding Market Dynamics, e.g., PPS
Understanding Market dynamics and Upstream Supply Chain are Key to Modelling Costs of Building Blocks and Products
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
40
80
120
160
200
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Electrical/Electronic AutomotiveMechanical/industrial Aerospace/OthersFirm Capacity Hypothetical Capacity
Ma
rke
t, 0
00
me
tric
to
ns
Ind
us
try O
pe
rati
ng
Ra
te (
%)
Recession Impact
Automotive
Demand Driver
New Toray
Capacity in Korea
Salt
Power Chloralkali
Benzene Chlorobenzenes
Caustic Soda
Chlorine
SteamCracker
Refinery
Na2S
Polymerisation
p-Dichlorobenzene
o-Dichlorobenzene
Chlorobenzene
Polyphenylene
Sulphide
Understanding the Supply Chain, e.g., PPS • Using polyphenylene sulphide (“PPS”) as
an example, IHS Chemical develops a
detailed view of market dynamics, demand
segmentation, new investment, plant
utilization, etc.
• Factors from this analysis drive techno-
economic models for PPS production.
• Understand the upstream supply chain
from crude oil, natural gas, etc., through
the production of building blocks and
intermediates also provides a key platform
for forecasting production costs and prices
by region and even by producer if
required.
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
13
High Performance Thermoplastics – Key Markets
Industry Key Growth Drivers
Electronics Continuing drive for miniaturization
Higher temperature generation and greater stresses
Desire for higher quality and reliability
Growing market concern over flame retardants
More extreme processing conditions
Lower systems costs
Greater concerns over electromagnetic and radio frequency interference (EMI/RFI) shielding
Greater automation with emphasis on cost reduction
Automotive Continuing replacement of metals with plastics to light-weight parts
Greater use of electrical or hybrid vehicles
More stringent OEM requirements
Lower systems costs
Greater environmental considerations
Aircraft/Aerospace Greater use of thermoplastic parts and composites for light weighting
Medical Devices Continuing replacement of metals
Use of more aggressive cleaners and disinfectants
Demand for more comfortable instruments and tools by practitioners
Materials that show some product differentiation through visual effects
More efficient processing procedures including inventory tracking
© 2014 IHS
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
14
High Performance Thermoplastics – Key Players with Solvay Emerging as Multiple Product Supplier
Thermo-
Aromatic High Sulfone plastic
Polyketones Performance PAs LCPs PAR PCT PPS Polymers Polyimides
United States
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LP X
Cytec Engineered Materials Inc. X
DuPont X X
Eastman Chemical X
Fortron Industriesb X
MGC Advanced Polymers X
SABIC Innovative Plastics X
Solvay Advanced Polymers, Inc. X X X X X
Ticona LLCb X X
Western Europe
BASF Aktiengesellschaft X X
DSM NV X
EMS-GRIVORY X
Solvay Advanced Polymers GmbH X
Victrex plc X
Overview of Producers of High Performance Thermoplastics a
a. Includes only resin production; excludes regional compounding and distribution activities.
b. Fortron Industries is a 50/50 joint venture of Ticona and Kureha Chemical Industry. The joint venture manufactures PPS; Ticona is responsible for
compounding and marketing the product in the United States.
X
CP Chem Sells PPS
to Solvay in Q4/2014
Solvay acquires
Cytek, Aug 215
© 2014 IHS
Wider Established and Emerging Applications for Composites
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
15
Source: Toray
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
16
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical has developed process models for each step of the composites chain
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
17
These cost models in conjunction with
forecasts of feedstocks, energy, market
dynamics can be used to develop price
forecasts for different carbon fibre
products.
Raw Materials
Precursor Carbon Fibre Pre-preg Producer
Compounder Moulder Fabricator OEM Client/
Principal
Acrylonitrile Methyl acrylate Methacrylic acid Mesophase pitch Cellulose Additives
Rayon Fibre Acrylic Fibre Pitch Fibres Oxidized Fibres
Variable Modulus Carbon Fibres Graphite Fibres Sized/Unsized Additives
Carbon Fibres Graphite Fibres Epoxies Advanced ETPS Advanced Fibres
© 2014 IHS
BMW/SGL Carbon is leading the way in structural carbon fibre use in the automotive industry for affordable platforms
18
IHS Chemical has looked at different
approaches to carbon fibre pre-preg use in
the automotive industry:
• For many years carbon fibre composite use
for the construction industry was limited to
“super” cars like the Lamboughini Aventador
with short series lengths of 200+ units per
year.
• Longer series lengths, lower cost carbon
fibre and improved automobile design,
together with a continued effort in “Light-
Weighting”, has lead to the developments in
automobile with structural carbon fibre use.
• Reducing carbon footprint too is a major
drive through hybrid EV developments and a
wider range of commercial EVs.
• While the BMW i8 remains in the high
performance sports car sector, the BMW i3
represents a more mainstream affordable
electric car platform with an estimated 300
kg of carbon fibre per vehicle.
• SLGL/BMW operates an extended supply
chain from Japan through the U.S to
Germany across multiple process stages of
fibre, composite and automobile fabrication.
CF Precursor From
MRC-SGL Japan
Fibre SGL Carbon Moses Lake
WN, USA
CF Fabric SGL-BMW
Wackersdorf, Germany
CFRP SGL-BMW Landshut, Germany
Assembly BMW
Leipzig, Germany
Photo Source: carandriver.com
i3
i8
Alfa Romeo 4C Diseno, 885 kg
Lamboughini, Aventador, 1625 kg Unladed Weight, 1490 kg
Unladed Weight, 1270 kg
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
In automotive CF-Pre-pregs are in common use in performance cars, e.g. products from Plasan in the U.S.
19
SRT Viper
Hood: 17.2 kg
Roof Assembly: 5.4 kg
Light gate 4.1 kg
Total: 26.7 kg/vehicle
Corvette Stingray
Rocker: 0.5 kg
Hood: 5.4 kg
Fender 1.8 kg
Roof Assembly: 5.9 kg
Roof Bow Cover: 1.4 kg
Splitter 0.6 kg
Total: 15.6 kg/vehicle
Shelby Mustang
GT500KR
Splitter 0.6 kg
Total: 0.6 kg/vehicle
IHS Chemical has looked at different
approaches to carbon fibre pre-preg use in
the automotive industry:
• In the United States as an example, the
major carbon fibre and pre-preg producer
Toray Americas, Inc., has formed a joint
venture with Plasan Americas, call Plasan
Carbon Composites making body parts for
high performance vehicles.
• Combining IHS Automotive production
forecasts and IHS Chemical processing
knowledge, by the end of the decade
Around 948 metric tons of composites will
be used in platforms like those shown
opposite.
• In many automotive companies carbon
fibre use is still embryonic with ongoing
concerns over costs and safety in a
generally conservative industry.
• In the U.S., however, platforms like the
Tesla Roadster will increasingly look to
carbon fibre light-weighting solutions. This
could push carbon fibre pre-preg demand
beyond the 1650 metric ton level by 2020.
Source: Plasan Carbon Composites
Source: Plasan Carbon Composites
Source: Plasan Carbon Composites
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
Further Innovations in Automotive Design to Incorporate Composites – Advances from Toray
20
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS
Any forecast regarding future technology and material adoption needs to take into account the “boundary conditions”
21
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
• Global emission standards are all edging towards greater restrictions on pollutants as
discrepancies between requirements between different regions of the world are getting
smaller and smaller
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
US (FTP75/US06)
Europe (NEDC)
Japan (JC08)
China (NEDC)
S.Korea (NEDC)
CO
2 (
g/k
m)
No
rma
lize
d to
NE
DC
Te
st C
ycle
93
g/k
m
30
g/k
m
172 g/km
107 g/km
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US T II B8 Tier II Bin 5 Tier II Bin 4
Europe Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
Japan Japan ‘05 Japan ’09
S. Korea Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
China (Beijing)
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5
21
© 2014 IHS
Composite is one of many Approaches being Considered by OEMs to meet the Legislation Targets of the Future
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
22
There are multiple approaches to reach the target as follows:
Technology Gain
• Tire Rolling Resistance: 1-3%
• Parasitic Loss Reduction 1-3%
• Aerodynamics 1-2%
• Reducing Power <10%
• Weight (Primary)
• “Right-sizing”
~20-25%
“Nanotechnology in Tyres”
“Anti-friction Coatings on
Moving Parts”
“Advanced Plastics in Load-
Bearing Parts”
“Improved Aerodynamic
Design, e.g. Wiper Blades”
“Enlightened
Design, e.g. Nissan”
There are Abundant Examples Today
“Ever- Plastic-Intense
Electronic Components” “Shale Gas and NGVs”
© 2014 IHS
IHS Automotive provides parts analysis for multiple light vehicle platforms
PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014
23
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
24
© 2014 IHS 25
Emerging Bio-Based Chemical Building Blocks
In addition to a well-established industry of
natural oil conversion into alcohols, nylon
feedstocks, etc., access to competitive sugar
sources in part drives the development of
novel bio-chemical building blocks
C2
C5
C4
C3
C6+
Ethylene Ethylene Glycol
Propylene Glycol 1,3-Propanediol
1,4-Butanediol Isobutanol
Isoprene
Adipic Acid para-Xylene
Braskem Greencol, India Glycols
ADM, Oleon DuPont Tate & Lyle
Genomatica/Novamont Butamax, Gevo
DuPont/Goodyear Ajinomoto/Bridgestone
Rennovia, Verdezyne Gevo, Virent Energy
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS 26
Durable Bio-Based Polymers
IHS Chemical has undertaken major
consulting projects in bio-based durable
polymers, especially given the cost-effective
bio-butanediol is now available
• Bio-based nylons like 6-12, 6-10, 11,
etc., are also examples of bio-based
polymers with monomers based on
sugars and also natural oil derivatives
like sebacic acid
• IHS Chemical has worked on the
development of many polymers in this
class:
Polytrimethylene terephthalate for carpet
yarns
Isosorbide polycarbonate
for touch screens
Bio-based nylon resins
for auto parts
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
© 2014 IHS 27
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Polycarbonate
Polyesters Polyacetal Analoges
Unsaturated
Polyesters
Epoxy
Resins
Polyamide
Analoges
Succinates/
Adipates
Thermoplastic
Polyurethanes
PEEK
Analoges
Pyrrolidone
Analoges
Phenoxy Copolymers
PPS Analoges
Copolyesters Adipates
O
OH
OH
O
O
Polyaramid Analoges
New Monomers = New Opportunities - FDCA
© 2014 IHS 28
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
ISOSORBIDE
POLYCARBONATE
POLYMETHYL
METHACRYLATE
POLYSTYRENE
CYCLIC OLEFIN
COPOLYMERS
CORN
WHEAT
SUGARCANE GREEN
POLYCARBONATE
New Monomers = New Opportunities
© 2014 IHS 29
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Routes to Green Polycarbonate
Sugars Sorbitol
Melt-Phase
Polycarbonate
Personal care
Food/Confectionary
Polyether Polyols
Surfactants, Pharma, Vitamin C, etc.
Cyclohexane
Dimethanol
Dimethyl
Terephthalate
Diphenyl
Carbonate Phenol
Ethylene oxide
CO2
Methanol
DURABIO™
Specialty Polyesters
Isosorbide
Specialty Polyesters
Polyurethanes
Epoxy Resins, etc.
© 2014 IHS 30
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Cost of Green Polycarbonate – More Work to Do
U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton
Note: All plants at 200 000 metric tons per year capacity with technoeconomics for average 2019, USGC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Interfacial Average Melt Process Average Bio-Based
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs
Depreciation Low Range High Range
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
31
© 2014 IHS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nanotube Fibre 2 ktpaNet Raw Materials Utilities
Fixed Costs Depreciation
SG&A TS&D
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
32
Looking to the Future – Nano-Carbon Fibre for Composites
$US per kilo
Applications – Defence, Aerospace, Mars Mission, Smart Fabrics, Automotive, Architectural Solutions, etc.
Plant Gate
Cost
Post
Production
Costs
Projected Potential Fibre Price End Markets C60,
C90, C120 Fullerenes
© 2014 IHS
IHS Chemical
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
Themes Covered
IHS and the Chemical Value Chain
Issues Arising in Advanced Plastics
and Composites
The Automotive Challenge
The Role of Renewables on
Composites for Automotive
Next Generation Composites
Conclusions
33
© 2014 IHS
In conclusion
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
34
• Composites have a tremendous growth trajectory across multiple industries, aerospace, automotive, energy, etc. The Asia-Pacific region is also developing its composite business rapidly from a small base.
• There is increased interest in thermoplastic based systems as well as thermosets leading to combining more conventional engineering polymers as well as the advanced polymers known for these applications.
• Value chains are complex and a detailed understanding of cost structure important to position composites for an industry like automotive that is renowned for its cost sensitivity. Supply chain security is also vital.
• Composites are just one of many lines of development automotive OEMs are using to meet emissions targets today and in the future.
• Renewables with access to new materials with potential for composites use can combine greener manufacturing with an effective price-performance trade-off.
• Over the medium term more exciting materials are on the horizon, but their cost, at least initially, is probably not affordable for automotive OEMs, save supercars and Formula 1®.
• Materials and manufacturing techniques need to continue their evolution to meet the performance challenges of the future.
© 2014 IHS
ADVANCED ENGINEERING UK NOV 2015
35
Thanks for Listening