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Changing Demographics and Growth Patternsin Nebraska
Jerry DeichertUNO Center for Public Affairs Research
[email protected] 402-554-2134
www.unomaha.edu/cpar www.facebook.com/unocpar
Nebraska Chamber of Commerce & Industry2014 Legislative Caucus/Annual Meeting
January 30, 2014Lincoln, NE
Three Major Demographic Trends
1. Nebraska’s population is becoming more and more concentrated in its most populous counties.
2. The state’s population is getting older and will continue to age.
3. The state’s population is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse
State Population Summary
• In 2010, Nebraska had a population count of 1,826,341 persons, an increase of 115,076 or 6.7 percent from the 2000 count of 1,711,265
– Nebraska ranked 30th in percentage change (an increase from 37th in 1990s)
• Nebraska’s growth rate of 6.7 percent in the 2000s was not as strong as the 8.4 percent rise seen in the 1990s
– However, it did exceed the average decade growth rate between 1950 and 2000 (5.3 percent)
– Congressional District boundaries were redrawn by the Unicameral Legislature
• In 2013, Nebraska’s population was 1,868,516
– +2.3% since 2010 (ranks 26th)
– Compares to 2.4% national growth rate3
4
5
2000-2010 Changes for Nebraska’s Congressional Districts
District 2000 2010 Change Percent Change
NE-1st 570,421 626,092 + 55,671 + 9.8%
NE-2nd 570,421 638,871 + 68,450 + 12.0%
NE-3rd 570,421 561,378 - 9,043 - 1.6%
Average district size based on 2010 census is 608,780
District VS. average Effect of RedistrictingNE-1st +17,312 Gained territory from 2nd
district &lost
territory to 3rd district
NE-2nd +30,091 Lost territory
NE-3rd - 47,402 Gained territory
7
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
11.8
8.7
6.3
-4.5
0.7
6.5
5.25.7
0.5
8.4
6.7
Nebraska Population Change Rate by Decade: 1900s to 2000s
Decade
Po
pu
lati
on
Ch
ang
e R
ate
(as
a p
erce
nt
of
tota
l p
op
ula
tio
n a
t st
art
of
dec
ade)
Source: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census BureauPrepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO
8
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Nebraska Population and Population Change, 1925-2013
Population Change Population
1985-1987
PopulationPopulation
Change
Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
County Population Summary
• 24 Nebraska counties gained population while 69 lost population between 2000 and 2010
– Compares to 40 growing counties in the 1990s and only 10 in the 1980s
– 23 counties lost 10% or more of their population between 2000 and 2010
• Nebraska’s 3 most populous counties, Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties are among the state’s fastest growing
– Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy accounted for 52.6 percent of Nebraska’s population in 2010, up from 48.9 percent in 2000
– These 3 counties grew 14.9 percent between 2000 and 2010 while the remaining 90 counties lost 1.1 percent
9
County Population Summary (Continued)
• Metropolitan (2013 definition) counties added population, but nonmetropolitan counties lost population– Metropolitan
13.0%– Nonmetropolitan
-2.5%• Micropolitan
1.3%
• Largest city 2,500 to 9,999 persons -4.4%
• Largest city under 2,500 persons -7.7%
• Nebraska’s legislative districts also were redrawn with metro areas gaining more representation.
– Average legislative district size based on 2010 Census is 37,272 persons.
– Legislative district 49 was moved from Northwest Nebraska to Sarpy County. 10
Center for Public Affairs Research 11
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010300,000
450,000
600,000
750,000
900,000
1,050,000
1,200,000
Total Population for Nebraska Metro and Nonmetro Counties (2013 Definitions): 1890 - 2010
Metro counties (13) Nonmetro counties (80)
Dec
enni
al C
ensu
s Po
pula
tion
Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau; 2013 OMB metro definitions
Compiled and Prepared by: UNO Center for Public Affairs Research
673,123
1,153,218
681,699
377,211
12
• Impact of the 2010 Census on redistricting
Douglas 14 districts fully within its borders
Lancaster 7 fully in2 partially in
Sarpy 4 fully in1 partially in
Prior to redistricting
Douglas 11 districts fully within its borders
4 partially inLancaster 6 fully in
2 partially inSarpy 3 fully in
4 partially in
Natural Change
• Natural Change = Births - Deaths
• 2012 births were 25,939– Slight increase from 2011 which was 3rd year of
decline
– 2011 was lowest number since 2002
• 2000 to 2010– Much of the decade population growth stemmed from
about 109,500 more births than deaths
– The 2000s “natural change” rate of 6.4 percent was higher than the 1990s (5.4 percent)
– 44 counties had more deaths than births
14
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Nebraska Births, Deaths, and Natural Change: 1920-2012
Births Deaths Natural Change
Number
Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
Baby Boom1946-1964
Generation YBaby Boom Echo
Millennials 1977-1994(?)
Generation ZInternet Generation
1995(?)+
Number
Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
Generation XBaby Bust1965-1976
Silent Generation1925-1945
16
Net Migration
• 2010 to 2013 inmigration was 7,322– International 10,357
– Domestic -3,035
• 2000 to 2010
– The state experienced a net inmigration of about 5,600 persons
– The 2000s net migration rate of 0.3 percent was below a 3.1 percent inmigration in the 1990s
– The 1990s and 2000s are the only decades since 1930 to have net inmigration
– Only 14 counties had net inmigration
• 1990 to 2000
– Added about 48,000 persons during the decade (3.1 percent)
– 42 counties had net inmigration or no net outmigration17
18
1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
-6.6
-12.7
-9.8
-8.7
-5.2
-0.9
-6.4
3.1
0.3
Nebraska Net Migration Rate by Decade: 1920s to 2000s
Decade
Mig
rati
on
Rat
e (a
s a
per
cen
t o
f to
tal
po
pu
lati
on
at
star
t o
f d
ecad
e)
Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau; Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human ServicesPrepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO
1925
1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
1941
1943
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Nebraska Components of Population Change, 1930-2013
Net Migration Natural Change
Per
son
s
1991-1999
Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census BureauVital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
20
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
2010 Nebraska Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group
Percent of Total Population
FemaleMale
Age Group
Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census BureauGreen lines depict the depression cohort; red checker shows the "baby boom"; pink represents the "baby boom echo"; pink crosshatch shows the "3rd wave"
21
All ages
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
6.7
12.7
4.4
-4.8
-4.4
7.4
15.2
4.4
-15.1
-17.4
4.7
26.4
51.7
49.3
15.9
-3.6
-3.2
9.4
15.8
Percentage Change for 5-Year Age Groups in Nebraska: 2000 to 2010
Percent ChangeSources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO
Age Group
22
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
300
400
500
600
406
500 507
447429
450 459472
483501
515
Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged Under 18 Years: 1950 to 2050
Num
ber o
f per
sons
in th
ousa
nds
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
789747
792
917 926
1029
11201143 1153
12051255
Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged 18 to 64 Years: 1950 to 2050
Num
ber o
f per
sons
in th
ousa
nds
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
130
164184
206223
232247
325
419
448
471
Population and Population Projections for the Nebraska Popu-lation Aged 65 Years or Older: 1950 to 2050
Num
ber o
f per
sons
in th
ousa
nds
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1950 to 2010 Decennial Censuses; Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013
Total population
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years
70 to 74 years
75 to 79 years
80 to 84 years
85 years and over
-30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0
6.2
1.2
-0.8
7.1
2.8
-0.7
2.2
9.7
13.6
2.6
-15.5
-16.8
5.3
28.6
55.2
51.3
18.2
0.5
9.1
Percentage Change in Nebraska Population by 5-year Age Group: 2010-20
Percent
Age
grou
p
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Decennial Censuses;Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2013
Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin
• Nebraska’s population growth is predominately in minority racial and ethnic groups
– Hispanic or Latino (of any race) grew by 77 percent
• Accounted for nearly two-thirds of state’s overall growth
– The White, non Hispanic population barely increased (0.4%)
• In 2010, Minority population was 17.9 percent of total
– Up from 12.7 in 2000 and 7.4 percent in 1990
• Minority population is much younger
– Relatively more under 40
– Relatively fewer 40+ 27
Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Change 2000-2010
• Total population 6.7 percent• Not Hispanic/Latino Origin 2.6 percent
– White alone 0.4 percent– African American or Black alone 19.9 percent– American Indian & Alaska Native alone 9.9 percent– Asian alone 47.2 percent– Nat. Hawaiian, Pac. Islander alone 49.3 percent– Some other race alone 59.5 percent– Two or more races 60.6 percent
• Hispanic/Latino Origin 77.3 percent• Minority 50.7 percent
28
29
Hispanic or Latino; 9.2%
White NH alone; 82.1%
Black or African American NH alone; 4.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native NH alone; 0.8%
Asian NH alone; 1.7%Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander NH alone;
0.1%Some Other Race NH alone;
0.1%Two or More Races NH; 1.6%
Nebraska Population by Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin as a Per-centage of Total Population: 2010
Note: NH is Not Hispanic or LatinoSource: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
2010 Nebraska Population by Five-Year Age Group:Non-White or Hispanic/Latino (Minority Population) as a Percent of State Total
17.9
30.8
28.2
25.6
23.3
21.9
21.9
20.7
13.3
11.0
9.2
8.0
7.0
6.3
5.2
4.0
3.0
17.9
22.1
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Total
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85+
Percent of Total Population
Age Group
Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau, AFF tables P12 and P12I
Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO
`
30