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Changing Climate: Implications, Responses and Vulnerability (People’s Perspective). Water Security in Peri -urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization Nepal Engineering College. Water Security in Peri -urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization . - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Changing Climate: Implications,
Responses and Vulnerability
(People’s Perspective)
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Nepal Engineering College
Vulnerability Concept (A Case of Lubhu, Nepal)
3
Methods: Capturing Local Perception on Changing Climate
Focus Group Discussions (FGDs)
Household Questionnaire Survey
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
FGD: A gradual increase in summer period after 1980s and large increase in the 2000s.
Summer Temper-
ature
Winter Temper-
ature
Extreme hot
summer days
Less cold winter
Cooler days
Extreme cold
winter
Hot days0
20
40
60
80
100
75.6
44.068.4
56.0
11.526.3
70.2
1.5
26.7
5.617.0
60.148.0
9.7
22.1 27.5 23.7 24.9 27.0 23.5 19.9
Increasing Decreasing Erratic Same
Perception on Changes in Attributes of Temperature
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
5
"Prior to 1980s, winter used to begin by Kartik (October/November) and the peak winter season months used to extend from November second week to mid February (Mangsir to Magh). In 2000s, winter began much later and ended earlier”
"Before 25/26 years, Thato, icy film used to form above water level on the ditches but now it has been 10-15 years, winter is not that cold"
"The maximum temperature has been rising in such a manner; I assume there won't be winter season during my grand-daughters period"
LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Findings Contd….
In 2000s, unusual changes in the pattern of rainfall, rainfall no more predictable
Changes in the rainfall pattern more stressful than the changes in the total annual rainfall
Winter Rain
Spring rain
No. of rainy
days in the
Mon-soon
Persis-tence in monsoon rainfall
Occur-rence of
dry spells
Flash floods re-sulting from
rainfall
Cloudy/fogy days in winter
Wind-stroms
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1.5 2.0 3.1 3.0
46.7
6.9 3.315.7
84.5 79.4 77.6
50.9
22.2
77.0 85.4 66.1
4.6 8.4 4.3
32.4 3.8
0.30.5
0.5
8.9 9.7 13.7 10.118.4
11.7 10.5 16.4
Increasing Decreasing Erratic Same
Perception on Changes in Attributes of Rainfall
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
7
“Persistent rainfall lasting over days and nights (Sat din sat rat jhari, Shaune jahri , Shora Shraddha Jhari, Maghe jhari) was common prior to 1980s but has been declining over with larger decline in 2000s”
“The rainfall can no more be predicted now”
"There has been decrease in the annual rainfall. The dry spells are getting longer. Had there been winter rain, it would have recharged the spring sources!"
LOCAL STATEMENTS ON CHANGES IN RAINFALL
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Implications of Changing Climate
Water SurplusIncrease in crop production
Increased migrationNegative health impacts
Change in cropping patternWater insufficiency
Changes in timing of crop planting and harvesting
Decrease in crop production
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
46
2334
5659
6576
Percentage
Con
sequ
ence
sSocial consequences of changes in climatic attributes
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
9Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Water Resources Natural spring sources adversely affected by rainfall
variability resulting decline in the yield of spring sources and stone spouts, and even complete vanishing
Decline in the number of seasonal springs that used to emerge following the monsoon season
Changes in water sources by compounded implications of climate change and urbanization
Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd...
10
Local Statements on Weeds and Pests Occurrences"Due to increase in temperature, pests have
increased. Had there been frost by now, the pests would have died due to cold! Mosquito exist for almost entire year since last 3-4 years.”
Maobadi Jhar, Navo, Madila, Tantane, Pire (Polygonum barbatum), Mothe (Cyperus difformis), Baspate, Pani ghans appeared in rice field and progressively increased in 2000s.
"The road used to be covered with earthworms but since 4-5 years it has disappeared"
Implications of Climate Changing Climate Contd...
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
11Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Responses and Adaptive Practices
Drying of water sources: Ferrying of Water from Neighbors/ Neighboring VDCs and Reliance on the Market Solutions
Increasing number of dug wells at households
Capturing Roof Top Runoff
12Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Shift towards low water demanding crop varieties (Taichin-242 and Tainan- 176 to Khumal-4)
Declining wheat, increasing pea, barley, musur, soyabean Leaving the land fallow, leasing out land during winter; Deviation away from agriculture,
Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd….
Mustard and wheat saplings covered by straw for moisture
retention
Small farm based garden based on household
groundwater sources
13Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
Technological InnovationsInitiation of charging irrigation service fee
Wastewater Irrigation
Responses and Adaptive Practices Contd….
Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment
• Based on five different capitals
• Eleven components and Fourty one sub-components/ indocators
• Calculated by Balanced Weighted Average Approach
• Each of the indicators is measured on a different scale and need to standardize each as an index.
• The value of each component is calculated by using the index value of concerned indicators.
• The range of LVI is scaled from 0 (least vulnerable) to 1 (most vulnerable).
Livelihood Vulnerability Index
Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment (Based on IPCC Concept)
Vulnerability=(Exposure –Adaptive capacity) * SensitivityThe values ranges from -1 (least vulnerable) to +1 (most vulnerable).
-0.12-0.1
-0.08-0.06-0.04-0.02
0Jhaukhel
Dadhikot
Matatirtha
Lubhu
LVI-IPCC
• Growing impression among the local people on the changing climate.
• Direct and indirect impacts of climate change noticed by the local people.
• Adaptive strategies coming up at household level and community level against the adverse impacts of changes in climatic attributes.
• Lubhu, the most vulnerable VDC among the four peri-urban sites.
Conclusion
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization
The Way Forwards• Communicate the knowledge on the climatic
uncertainty to the local level.• Exploring the local adaptation practices to
identify the strengths and weaknesses for creating climate resilient community.
• Replicating the successful measures to enhance and expand the climatic resilience of wider community.
• Local level institutions and local community can play major role and need to be capacitated.
21
THANK YOU
Water Security in Peri-urban South Asia: Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization