Changing Climate and the Outlook for Oilseed · The majority of climate, weather and oceanological agencies • Give a 90% chance of El Niño continuing through winter and • Give

Changing Climate and the

Outlook

for Oilseed

© 2016 Evelyn Browning Garriss

Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows.

The El Niño is good for South American soybean production and bad for Asian soy and palm oil production.

Conclusions

© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media

There is a 90% chance the current El Niño will be strong and last through

February and an 85% chance that it will last until May. Often after a strong El Niño a cooling La Nina follows close behind. The combination of the strong El Niño along with the eruption of an Icelandic volcano usually creates a warm dry winter in the Northern tier of states through the Midwest. Springtime El Niños create dry planting seasons for the Eastern Corn Belt. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look negative for European canola and sunflower oil.

The timing of a potential 2016 La Niña will determine the 2016 soybean crop – if it starts in summer, it would reduce soybean oil production, if later, it creates a good harvest.

2

Historically El Niños reduce and La Niñas raise oilseed prices.

Basically the climate is determined by:

How much

solar radiation

the Earth receives

(the Sun)

Where the heat from

the solar radiation is stored

(Oceans/Urban Heat Islands)

The patterns of

where the solar radiation

falls or is reflected

(Clouds/Volcanoes)

© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media 3

As an historical climatologist,

I look at what factors are shaping the weather and use:

Historical records, coral and tree rings,

sediment layers, and glacial cores to learn how they

shaped the weather in the past.


Meet the factors shaping global

weather over

the next six months!


Clouds, the debris from large

volcanoes, and man-made aerosols

can reflect back sunlight and

change rainfall patterns.

The 2014 – 15 eruption of Iceland’s Bardarbunga volcano may affect this winter.


North Pacific volcanoes

change the jetstream

over the Pacific.

North Atlantic volcanoes

change the jetstream

over the Atlantic.

Positive NAO


Strong

Icelandic

Low

8

Iceland had 3 large eruptions

over the past century,

in 1918, 1947 – 1949

and 2012

The following winters had warm mid-winters in the Midwest and Northeast. The 1918 eruption was during an El Niño and did not interfere with the El Niño effect.

1919

1949

2012


El Niño

There are several oscillating patterns of ocean currents.

PDO

Pacific Decadal

Oscillation

50 year cycle

Oceans store and transport heat

© Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss 9

10 © Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss

The long-term Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation (AMO) turned positive

in 1995.

The Gulf stream flows faster.

The North Atlantic warms.

The Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation (AMO) 1856-2009 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg

warm Atlantic

cool Atlantic

Oceans store and transport heat


© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss 12

This year’s precipitation

is coming in the form

of extreme storms.

http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/42/75/43/9165040/3/920x920.jpg

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/waob/weather_weekly//2010s/2016/weather_weekly-01-28-2016.pdf

Jonas

Goliath


Three factors are increasing the extreme nature

of this year’s storms:

1. El Niño is creating “atmospheric rivers” which pour

tropical moisture into storms.

2. The Atlantic is extraordinarily hot, creating high humidity.

3. Debris from Iceland’s Bárðarbunga volcano is creating more

micro-droplets and thicker clouds.

This trend will continue into spring creating very severe

and damaging spring storms in North America and Europe.

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_past


One of the results of this pattern of heavy storms followed by

heat is the rapid melt of snow. This has caused heavy flooding.

The warm phase of the AMO diverts

precipitation from the Gulf, Great Plains

and Prairie Provinces.

This increases the risk of heat waves,

droughts and wildfires.

Warm AMO

Cool AMO



The majority of climate, weather

and oceanological agencies

• Give a 90% chance of El Niño

continuing through winter and

• Give a 85% chance of it lingering

into springtime

• Expect it to be strong

(more than 1.5°C / 2.7°F) all

winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Current conditions

Predicted

conditions

17

0.9ºC

1.8ºC

1.4ºC 2.1ºC

© Evelyn Browning Garriss /James Garriss

A cool MJO entering the El Niño

El Niño weather:

January, February and March temperature

& precipitation

courtesy: NOAA

STRONG El Niño Temperature Anomalies January - March


Winter Temperature Departures

from normal during 1997-98 El Niño

(departure from mean)

Winter Precipitation Departures


(percent of mean)

courtesy: NOAA

Great Lakes Region

RESULTS ‒ Less transportation disruption

(including shipping), lower energy

demands and retail sales and warmer

conditions for cattle and agriculture.


El Niño Winter

Winter Temperature Departures


(departure from mean)

Winter Precipitation Departures


(percent of mean)

courtesy: Midwestern Regional Climate Center


Spring March / April / May

Moderate El Niño

Temperature Anomalies Precipitation Anomalies


+ A moderate Russian volcanic

eruption will make this region colder

*If El Niño conditions continue.

+


+ + + +

+ +

* * *

El Niño year Strength Time until La Niña conditions

Month La Niña started

2015-2016 2.3 ? ?

1997-98 2.3 2 months July

1982-83 2.1 4 months October

1972-73 2.0 3 months June

1965-66 1.8 20 months December

1957-58 1.7 5 years May

1991-92 1.6 6 years August

There is a strong chance of a La Niña

starting this year.

© Evelyn Browning Garriss / James Garriss

23


La Niña Precipitation Anomalies

August / September / October

La Niña Temperature Anomalies

August / September / October

If La Niña conditions develop,

Kansas, the Eastern Corn Belt and South would have dry conditions

and more heat.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/lanina.aso.temp.gif

Though rainfall is strongly stagnated,

South American crops will in the end

have a higher yield overall.

Major crops in

South America

Average % Soil Moisture February 11-20, 2016

25 © Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/

Gouveia, Célia, Trigo, Ricardo M., DaCamara, Carlos C., Libonati, Renata,"The North Atlantic Oscillation and European vegetation dynamics"International Journal of Climatology Vol. 28, #14John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.



Percent of Normal Precipitation February 11-20, 2016

The Historical Impact of El Niño on Asia’s Spring Precipitation

Asia

USDA/FAS/OGA


Percent of Normal Precipitation February 11-20, 2016

Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation

Southeast Asia

USDA/FAS/OGA

There is a new paradigm in the Pacific –

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation tipped from a positive

to a negative trend in 2006.

Positive (warm phase) PDO

1976-1998

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Each phase lasts 20-30 years

Negative (cool phase) PDO

2006-present


The Atlantic AMO changed in 1995.

The Pacific Dedacal Oscillation is less stable but from the mid 1970s to the late 1990s the US & Canada enjoyed the most benign combination of the PDO and AMO.

Since 2006, the two oceans have

combined to create dry weather in the West and Great Plains.

during some

El Niños As the east Pacific changes from cool to

warm and back again, drought hits much of the nation for months, even years at a time.


© Stockcube Research Ltd

The impact on agriculture Wheat 1960-

2011

Soybeans 1962-2011

Corn 1960-2011


The impact on Food Prices

Food prices jump*: cool PDO + cool La Niña

warm PDO + warm El Niño

*jump is more extreme at the beginning of the cycle

Courtesy FAO

Food prices drop: cool PDO + warm El Niño warm PDO + cool La Niña


Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows.

The El Niño is good for South American soybean production and bad for Asian soy and palm oil production.

Conclusions

© Evelyn Browning Garriss / Browning Media

There is a 90% chance the current El Niño will be strong and last through

February and an 85% chance that it will last until May. Often after a strong El Niño a cooling La Nina follows close behind. The combination of the strong El Niño along with the eruption of an Icelandic volcano usually creates a warm dry winter in the Northern tier of states through the Midwest. Springtime El Niños create dry planting seasons for the Eastern Corn Belt. Meanwhile conditions in the Atlantic look negative for European canola and sunflower oil.

The timing of a potential 2016 La Niña will determine the 2016 soybean crop – if it starts in summer, it would reduce soybean oil production, if later, it creates a good harvest.

33

Historically El Niños reduce and La Niñas raise oilseed prices.

Is a Browning Media, LLC publication

For more information or complimentary issue:

[email protected]

1-844-857-8694

BrowningClimate.com

Documents

Changing Climate and the Outlook for Oilseed · The majority of climate, weather and oceanological agencies • Give a 90% chance of El Niño continuing through winter and • Give