Change Models – Types of Changes Quality Adjustment – Do same things consistently Incremental – Slight change to improve Trend Adjustment – Adjust output to market Evolution Step – Gradual major change Revolution Step – Rapid major change Paradigm Shift – Very rapid change to something

totally different

Change Models

Help to respond to environmental change• Some change just happens• Some is planned by others

Help to anticipate and survive• Those who see change happening can respond• Those who ignore change don’t survive

To thrive you must be good at:• Responding to a Change• Anticipating a Change

• Driving the Change

Responding to a Change – Possible Responses

Remain Unaware Ignore (Hope change will reverse) Wait to see what others do & copy them Just start doing something (play by ear) Put together a detailed analysis and plan BEST: Assess basis for the change, determine

what else the change will impact, flexibly manage to maximize benefit from change.

Anticipating a Change

“You can and should shape your own future. Because, if you don’t, someone else surely will.” – Joel Barker

More difficult than responding Provides opportunity to:

• Lead and affect the change• Select what part of the change you want to influence• Get into action early

Requires continual sensing of the outside

Critical Change Analysis

Critical Change Analysis – What if Start from the Current State Analyze major factors which could change the

current state• External influences Respond• Current Shortcomings Necessitates Invention

Brainstorm the “What if’s”

Current StateCurrent StateMore or lessMore or less

DefinedDefined

Critical Change Analysis

ChangeChangeNeededNeeded

Outcome 1Outcome 1

Outcome Outcome 22

Outcome 3Outcome 3Outcome 4…..etc.Outcome 4…..etc.

LargeLargeVolumes ofVolumes ofSand - PoorSand - Poor

AccessAccess

Conventional Heavy Oil

Produce Produce thethe

ReservoirReservoir

Stir Up the Stir Up the ReservoirReservoir

Access Access Without Without CasingCasing

Enhanced In-SituEnhanced In-SituSeparationSeparation

Turn IntoTurn IntoOpportunityOpportunity

High Cost ofHigh Cost ofInjectants forInjectants for

EOREOR

Conventional Oil

Low CostLow CostInjectantInjectantSuppliesSupplies

Alternate Water Alternate Water SourcesSources

Carbon Carbon DioxideDioxide

NitrogenNitrogenAir or Air or OxygenOxygen

10-15% of Gas10-15% of Gas Used for Used for

FuelFuel

Natural Gas

ReduceReduceFuelFuel

CostsCosts

Co-generation inCo-generation inGas TreatingGas Treating

Geothermal Geothermal Co-Co-

generation generation TechnologyTechnology

Acid Gas Acid Gas InjectionInjectionGas Liquefaction Gas Liquefaction

for Pipelinesfor Pipelines

Mainly LargeMainly LargeCoal FiredCoal Fired

UtilitiesUtilities

Energy Generation Co-GenerationCo-Generation

Power fromPower fromWastesWastes

““Renewable”Renewable”SourcesSources

Geothermal Geothermal Co-Co-

generation generation TechnologyTechnology

DeregulationDeregulation& Distributed& DistributedGenerationGeneration

Driving the Change

Making things happen – Why not Overcome Resistance to a Change

Change = ((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS

• SD = Sufficient Dissatisfaction• V = Vision of what could be• FS = First Steps to get there• R = Resistance to Change must be Overcome• SS = Support System to Make it Happen

Change Model – DHOWS Case Study

How it was used and reused to assess the situation for given changes.

Initial Concept Testing philosophy Demonstration Commercialization On-going

Water Management

Minimize Minimize WaterWater

HandlingHandling

Drill Somewhere Drill Somewhere ElseElse

Plug off Plug off in the in the

ReservoiReservoirr

Coning Coning ControlControl

Downhole Downhole SeparationSeparation

High Cost ofHigh Cost ofHandlingHandling

Water ($1.2 b/yr)Water ($1.2 b/yr)

Water Management

SD Obtain water production & handling cost data

V Lower costs and increase production FS Look at Options – Feasibility Study R “We’re doing as good as everybody else”;

“We just sell off properties when they start watering out”

SS Use real applications to assess

DHOWS Initial Concept

DownholeDownholeOil/WaterOil/Water

SeparationSeparation

Sieves & Sieves & ScreensScreens

HydrocycloneHydrocyclone

MembranesMembranes

GravityGravityOther OptionsOther Options

Not VeryNot VeryPredictablePredictable

DHOWS Initial Concept

SD Need better than hit and miss V Design system to match application FS Design Initial Prototypes R “No residence time in a well”; “Maybe when

hell freezes over!” SS Build on proven systems

Testing Philosophy

MinimumMinimumTest to AnswerTest to Answer

QuestionsQuestions

Component Component TestingTesting

Lab WellLab WellSimulationSimulation

Scale Scale ModelsModels

Field Well Field Well TestsTests

DHOWS ConceptsDHOWS ConceptsSimple But Simple But UnprovenUnproven

Testing Philosophy

SD Problems with past trials V Controlled Test with Low Risk FS Select an Optimum Candidate Well R “Too much Jewelry in the hole”; “Not

measuring water quality” SS Field for initial tests well understood

Demonstration

DemonstrationDemonstrationTestingTesting

RequiredRequired

Well Simulator Well Simulator TestingTesting

C-FER C-FER Controlled Controlled

TestsTests

JIP JIP TestingTesting

Semi-Commercial Semi-Commercial TestsTests

Limits to UseLimits to UseUnknownUnknown

Demonstration

SD One success not enough V Gradual development of a new standard

required FS Get more units out there R “Costs more than just a pump”; “Why should

my business unit take the risk” SS On-going C-FER/NPEL support

Commercialization

User GuidesUser Guides& Training& Training

C-FER/NPEL C-FER/NPEL Consulting or Consulting or

JV’sJV’s

C-FER/NPEL C-FER/NPEL CoursesCourses

ProducerProducerTrainingTraining

Pump Pump Vendors Vendors Through Through

SalesSales

Few PeopleFew PeopleKnow HowKnow How

DHOWS WorksDHOWS Works

Commercialization

SD Everybody talks about it but no one uses it V Make DHOWS an industry option FS Education of the Producers R “We want to be on the leading edge, not the

bleeding edge”; “It costs too much!” SS C-FER/NPEL courses/consulting

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________

((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________

________________________________________

SS _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________

((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________

________________________________________

SS _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________

((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________

________________________________________

SS _____________________________

Topic:_____________

Topic:_____________________

((SD x V x FS) > R) x SS = C SD _____________________________ V ______________________________ FS _____________________________ R ______________________________

________________________________________

SS _____________________________