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7/29/2019 Change Drivers
1/19
Change Drivers in
Organization Development
http://people.cornell.edu/pages/jo24/indexfolder-2/hammer-anim.gif7/29/2019 Change Drivers
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Change Drivers environment globalism demographics technology information economics politics
complexity
Organizational Response: paradigm shift new psychological contract decentralizing downsizing telecommuting
virtual organization reengineering teamwork Learning Organization mergers/acquisitions
strategic alliances target marketing out-sourcing temps innovation
Demands timeliness (JIT) efficiency speed quality
customized rate of change
Worker Impact lifelong learning adaptability/flexibility networking
self-loyalty
Competition !
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They way it used to be
1- 4 employers 1- 2 careers 42-year working life lifetime job security
6- 10 employers 3- 5 careers 50-year working life new psychological contract
and now
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The old psychologicalcontract
Employer: I will provide secureemployment (unless you really
screw up)
Worker: I will provide consistent &loyal work
The new psychological contract
Employer: I will provide you with an opportunity to bring value to theorganization and keep you so long as you continue to bring value
Worker: I will stay so long as I am provided what I need & dont findsomething better
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Creative Destruction: slubber doffers, depaters, & toerags
Job Destruction Employment Today Employment PastRailroad (1920)
Carriage makers (1900)
Telegraph operators (1920)
Cobblers (1900)
Watchmakers (1920)
231,000
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Environmental change driverslimited resources
only .5% of worlds available water is fresh & accessible
54% of available freshwater is currently being used by
6.1 billion people
half the population lives in unsanitary conditions
since 1950, the amount of irrigated land has tripled
70% of worlds drylands have soil degradation (over cultivated, over-grazed, improperly irrigated, erosion, monoculture, deforestation)
decreased space for trash (200 million tons/day in US); 29 million T
of hazardous waste each year
ocean pollution (60 million gallons oil; Mississippi R has 4000 Sq.
miles of dead water around LA and TX; toxic bacteria levels)
70% of worlds oceans are overexploited (90% reduction in tuna)
global warming & flooding (1-3.5 C by 2100)
decrease in biodiversity (by 2040 2/3 of all species extinct EPA)
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The Technology change driver
What the takes the average person 1
day to do now, took 3 days in 1950, 1 monthin 1800, lifetime in 1600
In 1900 85% of workers were in agriculture (now 3%), in 1950 73%
were in manufacturing (15%), now service & knowledge workers
Moores Law: chip capacity double every 6 months while price stays
the same
current annual growth rate of Internet is 100%
worldwide: 500m voicemail boxes, 110m fax machines, 600 email
users, over 500 million computers worldwide
artificial intelligence is expected to affect 60-90% of jobs,augmenting, displacing or eliminating workers
in the next five years people in the industrial world will be doing jobs
differently from the past 50 years
with innovation, everything goes back to zero
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Buy American-Owned
Alka SeltzerAlpo Dogfood
Aim ToothpasteBaskin Robbins IcecreamBactine AntisepticBall Park FranksBayer AspirinPic Pens, Lighter, Razor
Burger KingCapitol RecordsCBS RecordsChesterfield CigarettesChristian Brothers wineDiamond Stick MatchesDove Soap
Dunlop TiresEverReady BatteriesEureka Vacuum CleanersFirestone TiresFour Roses WhiskyFrenchs MustardFrigidaire Appliances
Friskies & Might Dog foodGlidden Paint
Goodyear Tire & RubberGood Humor IcecreamGreen Giant VegetablesHumpty Dumpty MagazineHires Root BeerHills Brothers Coffee
Hungry Jack PancakesImperial MargerineInstant Potato MixIndian Head TextilesJenos PizzaKelvinator AppliancesKnox Gelatine
Kool CigarettesKeebler CookiesLibbys FruitsLifebuoy SoapMagnavoxMassey-Ferguson TractorsMaxell Tapes
Michelin TiresMr. Coffee
Norelco AppliancesNescafe CoffeeNew Yorker HotelOvaltine Drink MixOne-A-Day VitaminsPanasonic
Pearle Vision CenterPepsodent ToothpastePillsbury Cake MixNestle Quik Chocolate MixQuasar TelevisionRay-O-Vac BatteriesRona Barrets magazine
Seven Seas Salad DressingShell OilStandard OilStouffer Frozen FoodsTappan AppliancesValium TranquilizersZig-Zag Cigarette Papers
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US has 280 million consumers, 330 in
EC, billion in China
Of the top 50 world banks, only three
US banks hold 13-15th place
20-40% unsuccessful repatriation
Increasing workforce diversification: one
LA company conducted orientation in 17languages
African American purchasing power will
increase 55% in each of next two
decades
cultural diversity demonstrates many
ways to work and manage
Globalization the new marketplace
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Complexity the number of elements, theirinterrelationships, and degree of
change in either
Revenge effects: the best intended quicksolutions often create more or worse problems
long term
Forecasting: strategic planning based on thepast are probably useless in a turbulent and
complex future Personality: some people are more creative, tolerant of ambiguity & risk,
and adaptive to change
Butterfly effect: small changes can have large and unexpected effects
Computer simulations using systems theory are more capable of
modeling complex systems
Reengineering: increased role complexity, ambiguity, & overload,multitasking
Constant change, growth, reorganization
http://faculty.css.edu/dswenson/web/revenge.htmhttp://faculty.css.edu/dswenson/web/revenge.htm7/29/2019 Change Drivers
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Unemployment rates opportunities for relocation
1 billion workers are un- (150m) or underemployed worldwide
by 2010 Asia will account for 60% of the worlds population 1999-2050 US adds about million workers each year
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20-30% of the elite skilledworkforce changes jobs every
year 69% believe it is acceptable to
change jobs every 5 years
40% believe that for under age 30should change jobs every 2-3years
14% are proud of their company
30% remain loyal
Working Woman identifies 32desired family-friendly benefits
Increased preference for flex,family and personal time andindependence (alt scheduling by25% employers)
Southwestern Air receives 3,000
online resume a month
Institute of Personnel and Development, April 2000
The changing workforce
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DownsizingChange Drivers Mergers & Acquisitions Avoid bankruptcy
Prepare for privatization Reduce costs to remain competitive
Goals Reduce expenses (46%) Increase profits (32%)
Improve cash flow (24%) Increase productivity (22%) Increase ROI (21%) Increase competitive advantage (19%) Reduce bureaucracy (17%) Improve decision making (14%)
Increase customer satisfaction (14%) Increase sales (13%) Increase market share (12%) Improve product quality (9%) Advance technology (9%) Increase motivation (7%)
Avoid takeover (6%) Wall Street Journal, 6-6-91
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Demographic change drivers
60-70% of Boomers plans to work past age 65(and 20+ hours/week in retirement)
by 2050 18-31 million will be older than 85
25% of Americans 35-54 have saved
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Vision: its not just imagining some future
picture; its seeing and understanding thedynamic forces that shape that place and
positioning yourself for the possibilities
Current
MarketplaceEnvisioned
FutureEconomy
Technology
Demographics
Information
Globalism
Competition
Politics
Environment
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Growth of theKnowledge Worker
The weekly edition of the NY Times has more information than a personwould come across in a lifetime in 17th Century England
There has been more information produced in the last 30 years than thepreceding 5,000
It takes 3-5 years for 50% of worker skills to become obsolete
Japanese students receive 240 days/year compared with 180 US
Japanese workers get 6x the training as US workers (300 hrs/6 mo) All information doubled about every 5 years; in some fields 6 months
More Americans work in biotechnology than in the entire machine toolindustry
About 75% of a products cost is determined at the conceptual stage
Developed countries spend 28-30% of GNP on knowledge
The ability to learn faster than your competitors
may be the only sustainable competitive advantage--Arie de Geus, Head of Planning, Royal Dutch Shell