Championing Young People’s Learning

London 14-19 Strategic Analysis

Transforming challenge into opportunity

Mike Pettifer

Championing Young People’s Learning

What is the Strategic Analysis?

Stage 1Analysis and Planning

Stage 2National and Local Commissioning Statements

Strategic Analysis

Stage 3Finalising Allocations

Stage 4Contracting and Funding

The Strategic Analysis is launched in May 2010 at the beginning of the commissioning process, which runs to August 2011. It informs

key outputs of the process including the drafting and finalising of both Local Commissioning Statements (Stages 1 and 2) and Local

Commissioning Plans (Stages 3 and 4).

Statistical basis for planning and commissioning education and training for young Londoners

Informed guide on the education, training and employment landscape for young people in London

Designed to trigger further lines of enquiry and be used in conjunction with other data resources

Championing Young People’s Learning

The London Story

• Jointly produced by YPLA and 14-19 RPG

• Format specific to London

• Regional level analysis with links to local authority and national figures

• Draft report released to local authorities in May for feedback. Formal release 24 September

• Key themes of Employer skills needs, Participation and Achievement

Championing Young People’s Learning

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Championing Young People’s Learning

London Infrastructure Overview

£915m allocated to FE and school Sixth Form provision in 2010/11 376 providers funded to deliver 16-18 provision in 2010/11 Just over two thirds of 16-18 providers are School Sixth Forms and 15% are FE institutions Over £500m invested in 67 capital projects between 2004 and 2009 35 Academies funded in 2010Over 250 schools involved in BSF since 2003

Championing Young People’s Learning

Pre-16 attainment

• GCSE attainment of 54% in 2008/09 in line with national average

• Improvement in all boroughs

• Significant variation (43% to 68%); 16 boroughs have achievement below national average

• Attainment gap a key issue…..

Attainment gap for 5 A*-C GCSE including Maths and English (2009)

010203040506070

%

2008

2009

Championing Young People’s Learning

London’s Economy Expansive economy

Approx 4.68 million workers 600,000 people self-employed

High correlation between qualifications and employability

88% employment rate for those qualified to degree, but

65% rate for those without Level 2

Employers and Young People London employers less likely to

recruit a school or college leaver and to say young people are less well prepared for work.

Poor attitude/personality or lack of motivation is a key issue

Championing Young People’s Learning

Who is in learning?

• 86% of 17 year olds in learning compared to 94% 16 year olds indicating a high dropout rate

• School censuses indicate increase in Year 12 and 13 numbers - in contrast to decrease projected by GLA and ONS

• 16-18 year olds in employment fell from 7.1% to 4.9% in December 2009

• Majority of learners on Level 3 courses

Championing Young People’s Learning

Who is not in learning?

Fourteen boroughs have NEET levels above regionalaverage of 5.3%

Significant borough by borough variation in both NEETlevels and ‘who is NEET’

Significant fall in participation at 17

• especially for maintained schools from 16 to 17

• 9% gap in London: above national av. and since 2002

• scale of fall varies across London, ranging from 13% to 2%, with over half of outer London boroughs exceeding the regional average.

• further exploration needed on reasons for why learners leave participation at 17

Championing Young People’s Learning

NEET by borough1 Barking and Dagenham

2 Barnet

3 Bexley

4 Brent

5 Bromley

6 Camden

7 City of London

8 Croydon

9 Ealing

10 Enfield

11 Greenwich

12 Hackney

13 Hammersmith and Fulham

14 Haringey

15 Harrow

16 Havering

17 Hillingdon

18 Hounslow

19 Islington

20 Kensington and Chelsea

21 Kingston upon Thames

22 Lambeth

23 Lewisham

24 Merton

25 Newham

26 Redbridge

27 Richmond upon Thames

28 Southwark

29 Sutton

30 Tower Hamlets

31 Waltham Forest

32 Wandsworth

33 Westminster

Championing Young People’s Learning

GCSE and A Level achievement

GCSE point scores below Grade C pass threshold for some L3 provision

• London average is above the Grade C GCSE pass threshold

• 68 colleges and schools had students entering with scores below this threshold

A-Level points score per candidate lowest in the country

• 691.3 points compared to 739.1 nationally

• Average points score per student did improve by approximately a third of a grade in 2008/09

• Significant variation between outer and inner London

Championing Young People’s Learning

Level 2 / Level 3 achievement by 19

• Improved year on year and now exceeds the national average

• Significant variation within London

• Progress towards reducing the attainment gap also needs to be

looked at on a borough by borough basis

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

19 in 2004 19 in 2005 19 in 2006 19 in 2007 19 in 2008

%

Level 2 at 19 England

Level 2 at 19 London

Level 3 at 19 England

Level 3 at 19 London

Championing Young People’s Learning

KEY CONCLUSIONS FOR 2011/12 COMMISSIONING STATEMENTS

Championing Young People’s Learning

Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12

Foster a system in which learners are able to make effectivedecisions about their learning journey, and ensure the provisionavailable allows them to progress successfully in it:

• Continuously improve CEIAG services through strong local authority leadership and partnerships

• Encourage providers to have effective initial assessment procedures in place

• Provide a full curriculum offer via existing and new provision

• Monitor success, retention and other VfM indicators to encourage effective places utilisation and challenge poor performance

Championing Young People’s Learning

Ensure that the needs of all learners are met:

• Avoid over-delivery of Level 3 qualifications and challenge poor quality Level 3 provision

• Ensure there is sufficient and suitable FL and Level 2 provision to support YP to progress to Level 3

Gain a better understanding of post-16 participation:

• Encourage post-16 providers to track leaver destinations

• Develop local authority level intelligence on 17 yr olds leaving learning to inform planning and CEIAG

Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12

Championing Young People’s Learning

Narrow the attainment gap of vulnerable learners:

• Continue to review and build the capacity of LLDD provision in London

• Ensure that vulnerable learners receive the correct level of support throughout their learning

• Pay specific attention to the quality of provision in deprived/disadvantaged areas of London to give the best possible chance for all young Londoners

Principles for Commissioning Statements 11/12