Challenges for Hawaii’s

Copyright 2021

Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE

Challenges for Hawaii’s

Post-COVID Workforce

Webinar appendixes for

Hawaii Workforce

Development Council

by Paul H. Brewbaker, Ph.D., CBE

TZ Economics, Kailua, Hawaii

August 12, 2021

1

Slide copyright 2021

[This page intentionally left blank]

Appendix 1: Hawaii’s official tourism strategy, Less Is More

2


Challenges for the 2020s: real tourism receipts didn’t grow on Oahu

after 2012, stumble after natural disasters; HTA policy of less tourism

800

700

600

500

400

900

800

700

600

500

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Aloha Airlines

shutdown

Kilauea

East Rift

eruption*

U.S. recessions

shaded gray

Total tourism

receipts

declined after

inflation

Total tourism

receipts

declined after

inflation

Monthly, million constant 2019$, s.a. (log scale)

Oahu(left scale)

Neighbor Isles(right scale)

Sources: Hawaii Tourism Authority plan: “Reduce visitor impacts by…decreasing the level of visitors” (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf), U.S. BLS CPI-U retrieved from FRED,

FRB St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL), visitor expenditure from Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/); seasonal adjustment using Census X-13 ARIMA filter by TZE.

*May-August 2018 eruption on Kilauea volcano’s East Rift (flows to Kapoho) (https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/nature/2018-eruption.htm), preceded by Kauai flooding

(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ncec/records and https://www.weather.gov/hfo/RecordKauaiandOahuRainfallAndFlooding-April2018).

Tohoku

seismic

event

https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/

https://www.nps.gov/havo/learn/nature/2018-eruption.htm

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ncec/records

https://www.weather.gov/hfo/RecordKauaiandOahuRainfallAndFlooding-April2018

3


0

20

40

60

80

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Entire net increase in Hawaii’s visitor plant inventory for last 30 years

comprised vacation rentals—strategic decision: constrain capacity

Vacation rental

Hotel, condo hotel,

timeshare, apartment hotel,

B&B, hostels, other units

Thousand lodging units

Sources: Hawaii DBEDT, 2020 Visitor Plant Inventory (https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf) and prior issues

https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf

4


0

10

20

30

40

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

10

20

30

40

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Hosting apps lower search + matching cost (demand), entry barriers

(supply), relieve de facto capacity constraint; ergo, “constrain VRs”

Sources: Hawaii DBEDT, 2020 Visitor Plant Inventory (https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf) and prior issues

VR

Hotel rooms, condo/hotel,

apt/hotel, timeshare units,

bed & breakfast, hostels

Hotel rooms, condo/hotel,

apt/hotel, timeshare units,

bed & breakfast, hostels

Vacation rentals

Thousand lodging units

Oahu Neighbor Islands combined

https://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/visitor/visitor-plant/2020VPI.pdf

5


Net of vacation rentals, Hawaii’s lodging capacity has declined for 30

years; visitor day growth enabled by VRs, yield management models

0

20

40

60

80

Thous. units

0

20

40

60

80

Mil. days

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Net of VR

SARS-CoV-2

Visitor Days (mil.)

Visitor Plant Inventory (thous.)

Gross

Days

6


0

2

4

6

8

10 million

0

5

10

15

20 billion

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Real tourism

receipts (2020$)

(right scale)

Total visitor

arrivals

(left scale)

COVID-19

$18

10.2

Hawaii’s turn of the 21st century conundrum: “more visitors, not more

dollars”—velocity is increasing, but inflow of export receipts is not

WWII

7


0

10

20

30

40

Thousand occupied jobs, n.s.a.

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gulf

War9/11 Aloha Airlines

shutdownCOVID-19

Monthly payroll employment in the accommodation industry didn’t

change materially for 25 years; pre-Covid rise could have been VRs

c. 30k (June 2021)

Sources: Hawaii DLIR, Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/); seasonal adjustment using Census X-13 filter by TZE.

http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/mei/

8


Real tourism receipts flat since 1989, conditional volatility rising:

risk-adjusted return decreasing (sitting duck for Black Swans)

.0

.1

.2

.30

5

10

15

20

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Real tourism

receipts (2020$)

(right scale)

Conditional volatility

(left scale)

Arrivals

Receipts (n.a. 2020)

Gulf

War

9/11

Aloha Airlines

shutdown

COVID-19

Pre-

war

WWII

9


Scheduled air seats to return to post-Aloha Airlines trend, but HTA* now

proposes “decreasing the level of visitors” and [hotspot] “capacity limits”

Million scheduled seats, s.a. (logs)

4.0

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2022

Sources: Hawaii Tourism Authority (https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/research/infrastructure-research/#air-seats), Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/air-seats/).

Aloha Airlines

shutdown

COVID-19

U.S. recessions shaded

*Hawaii Tourism Authority (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf)

https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/research/infrastructure-research/#air-seats

http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/air-seats/


10


Just to be clear about the first action proposed in the HTA Oahu

Destination Management Plan*: passenger arrivals should decrease

Monthly, thousand Hawaii arriving air passengers, s.a. (log scale)

1,000

700

500

300

200

100

70

50

30

20

102009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

COVID-19

*Hawaii Tourism Authority first action priority is to “Reduce visitor impacts by improving infrastructure, actively managing sites, and decreasing the level of visitors

[emphasis added].” (https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf)

Sources: Airports Division, Hawaii DOT, Hawaii DBEDT (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily-passenger-counts/ and http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/special/daily-pax-update.xls), monthly totals of daily

data through July 31, 2021, seasonally-adjusted by TZE using Census X-13 filter through December 2019, remaining monthly data not seasonally-adjusted through July 2021 .



http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/visitor/daily-passenger-counts/

http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/special/daily-pax-update.xls

11


Challenge to 2020s workforce development strategy: Less Is Not More

Policy of less tourism* implies lower exports, lower output, less employment, income reduction

• No growth tourism 1989-2019 did not mitigate risk (denominator of risk-adjusted returns)

• Negative growth is negative (numerator of risk-adjusted returns)

• Negative externalities remain unattended: congestion, resource degradation, cultural erosion

• De-industrialization policy posture (HTA) mixes messages

• Alternative industries—biotech since 1967 (maize genetics), astronomy since 1965 (TMT)—were

not previously pre-empted by growth of tourism, why are they all being cancelled now?

• One answer, dominant coalition: Politics of NIMBY, eco-pious denialism, global lodging brands

(protectionism), latent bigotry and xenophobia (“it changes the character of the neighborhood”)

*Hawaii Tourism Authority draft Oahu Destination Management Plan, first bullet point on its list of priority action items: “Reduce visitor impacts by…decreasing the level of visitors”

(https://hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/7150/oahu-dmap-sc-draft-actions.pdf).


12



Appendix 2: demographic trends

13


Oahu net domestic migration has been negative for decades: more

residents leaving from than moving to Oahu; “voting with their feet”

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Hawaii DBEDT (May 2021) Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

and Their Geographic Components: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx).

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Change in persons per year

Net change

Net int’l

migration

Births

Deaths

Net

domestic

11,190 10,785 8,199 1,508 3,753 1,289 −6,071 −5,897 −7,585 −9,665

https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx

14


Neighbor Island 2010s population change: more net out-migration,

save on Big Island, lower fertility, aging; slow to no population growth

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Change in persons

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Change in persons

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Change in persons

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Int’l

Dom

Births

Deaths

KilaueaBig Island

Maui

Kauai

• Net domestic migration negative on Maui for since 2015;

Kauai in 2019-2020; on Big Island after volcanic eruption

• Kauai population decline in 2019 and 2020 (−440)

• July 2010 – July 2020 cumulative percent changes:

9.7% Big Island (17,979 persons)

4.6% Kauai (4,643 persons)

8.3% Maui (12,877 persons)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Hawaii DBEDT (May 2021) Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas

and Their Geographic Components: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx).

https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/cbsa-est2020-alldata.xlsx

15


Thousand residents (log scale)

500

400

300

200

100

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

346

993964443Oahu (right scale)

Neighbor Isles (left scale)

130

Oahu’s population has declined by almost 30,000 2016-2020, N. Isle

population flat since 2018; fluke or future? 10,000 surplus houses?

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx), Hawaii DBEDT (http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx

http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate

16


Thousand persons, log scale

50

40

30

20

15

10

5

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

71.85kU.S.-Hawaii

Free Trade AgreementHawaii

Statehood

+2𝜎

−2𝜎

Iniki


Those who forget the past are condemned to retweet it: pre-Covid

Kauai population decline suggests possible repeat of mid-20th century



17



200

100

80

60

40

30

20

10

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

203.3k

U.S.-Hawaii


Statehood

+2𝜎

−2𝜎


Big Island population stagnation after 1930 (mechanization, Honolulu

urbanization) is a reminder that room to grow is not the determinant



18



100

80

60

40

30

20

10

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

U.S.-Hawaii


Statehood

+2𝜎

−2𝜎


167.9k

Maui’s population grew steadily with sugarcane, pineapple after

reciprocity, Statehood after mechanization, stagnated in late-2010s



19


Thousand persons (log scale)

1,500

1,450

1,400

1,350

1,300

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Hawaii statewide population estimates including 2020 and official State

projection (2018): 20,000 surplus housing units? more remote workers?

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx): Hawaii DBEDT Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2045

(June 2018) (http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/2045-long-range-forecast/2045-long-range-forecast-appendices.xlsx and http://census.hawaii.gov/home/population-estimate).

Why not?

Actual data

State projections (2018) @ 0.6% p.a.

60kU.S. recessions shaded

Like a miracle


http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/2045-long-range-forecast/2045-long-range-forecast-appendices.xlsx


20


Population losers and gainers 2019→2020: no clear pattern (e.g. coal,

petroleum states in mid-2010s), but remote work probably one factor

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census July 1, 2020 Estimates of Population and Housing Units (December 29, 2020) (https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html) and

accompanying data (https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx).

% changes Persons

0.9469 North Carolina 99,439

0.9769 Montana 10,454

1.0383 Delaware 10,141

1.0453 Washington 79,588

1.1225 Florida 241,256

1.1699 South Carolina 60,338

1.2901 Texas 373,965

1.4515 Utah 46,496

1.5364 Nevada 47,488

1.7768 Arizona 129,558

2.1158 Idaho 37,853

% changes Persons

-0.6492 .New York -126,355

-0.6275 .Illinois -79,487

.

-0.5835 .West Virginia -10,476

-0.3842 .Mississippi -11,441

-0.3333 .Alaska -2,445

-0.2784 .Louisiana -12,967

-0.2528 .Connecticut -9,016

-0.1827 .Michigan -18,240

-0.1763 .California -69,532

-0.1221 .Pennsylvania -15,629

-0.1120 .Vermont -699

-0.1000 .New Jersey -8,887

-0.0976 .Rhode Island -1,033

-0.0281 .Ohio -3,290

-0.0190 .Massachusetts -1,309

-0.6081 Hawaii -8,609

Population losers Population gainers

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/estimates-population-housing-units.html


21


Appendix 3: Post-Covid monetary policy

▪ Monetary policy builds on Bernanke quantitative easing

1. Stabilize financial markets immediately with liquidity injection (confidence = liquidity)

2. Forward guidance so nobody can fake like they didn’t know the plan

3. Treasury yields confirm that recovery began last fall, front-run to interim term structure

▪ Inflation Mansplaining

1. Inversion of term structure of implied inflation expectations implies that it is transitory

2. Evolution of inflation targeting

a) Mishkin, Bernanke et al publish textbook Inflation Targeting (1999)

b) Ned Gramlich (in Honolulu): “you’d have to be living in a cave not to know…” (2005)

c) FRBSF Prez Janet Yellen (at BOH luncheon): “our non-target target for inflation” (2007)

d) Fed Chair Bernanke publishes a target target: 2 percent PCE deflator (Jan 2012)

e) Fed Chair Powell’s AIT elaboration: 2 percent on average over time (Aug 2020)

22


The FOMC forecast for inflation this year increased by 1 percentage

point between March and June 2021, but is expected to revert to 2%

Source: Federal Open Market Committee, Federal Reserve Board (June 16, 2021) Summary of Economic Projections (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210616.pdf)

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20210616.pdf

23


-8

-4

0

4

8

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

$0.59 tr.

Trillion $, monthly averages)

Sources: Monthly averages of weekly averages, Federal Reserve Board (Statistical Release H.4.1), compiled through week of June 30, 2021 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/default.htm)

Assets

Liabilities and capital

U.S. Treasury securities

Mortgage-backed securities

Credit, liquidity facilities

Federal Reserve notes in circulation

Reserve deposits of depository institutions

Reverse repurchase agreements

Lehman Brothers fails

Agency debt

$5.14 tr.

$2.18 tr.

$3.84 tr.

$0.85 tr.

$0.73 tr.

$0.42 tr.

$2.29 tr.

U.S. Treasury general account

SARS-CoV-2

Monetary stabilization, accommodation of liquidity preference, fiscal

stimuli expanded Federal Reserve asset purchases, balance sheet

Other

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/default.htm

24


0

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Nominal U.S. Treasury yields: overnight rates at zero lower bound, as

of June 16, 2021 FOMC projected low, inching upward through 2023

Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (June 16, 2022)

(https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210616.htm).

COVID-19

10-yr

30-yr

2-yr

2.5%

P T P T*

Lehman

Brothers

Taper

Tantrum

Normalization

10-yr

30-yr

U.S. recessions

shaded gray

FOMC median fed funds

target rate projection

Fed

funds

*Unofficial (https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions)

https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20210616.htm

https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions

25


Talk is cheap? If “everybody” is concerned about reviving 1980s

inflation, then why don’t mortgage rates reflect the concern?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 Percent

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

10-year U.S. Treasury Note yield

30-year fixed rate mortgage rate

3.0%

1.6%

Sources: Federal Reserve Board (data download https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/), Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of

St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US).

Test for “Granger Causality:”

T-Note yield causes mortgage rate (F = 11.7660)

Mortgage rate causes T-Note yield (F = 6.2032)


https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

26


Confidence is liquidity: Covid raised precautionary demand. Q: Why

was boosting M2 money stock not inflationary? A: Velocity collapsed

Sources: Federal Reserve Board Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), M2 Money Stock [WM2NS], Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], both retrieved from FRED,

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS), July 5, 2021.

Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2)

balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail

MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

$20 tril.

$16

$12

$8

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

M2 money stock, n.s.a. (trillion $)

(right scale, logs)

M2 velocity, s.a. (left scale)

Lehman

Brothers COVID-19


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS

27



Appendix 4: whatchumean you not vaccinated, you bucks-for-lolo?

28


Source: Johns Hopkins University (https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv), daily data through

August 9, 2021.

Daily incidence would make Louisiana the worst country worldwide

for COVID*; Florida only reports weekly to obscure rising morbidity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

New daily COVID-19 cases per million persons (7-day moving averages)

3/20 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 1/21 3/21 5/21 7/21 9/21

Louisiana

Florida

Arkansas

Hawaii

*Highest incidence Aug. 9: (1) Louisiana (US) (1,153); (2) Georgia (EU) (1,009); (3) Botswana (950), (4) Florida (US) (889, last Friday); (5) Cuba (797); (6) Mississippi (795); (7) Arkansas (758)

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv

29


Now the State is doing something about the Delta variant?* Only

about one month too late, eh? (MIA: City & County of Honolulu)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Oahu new COVID-19 cases/million persons

3/1/20 5/1/20 7/1/20 9/1/20 11/1/20 1/1/21 3/1/21 5/1/21 7/1/21 9/1/21

Jul. 4Jul. 4

Sources: Hawaii DOH (https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdisease2019/), Hawaii DBEDT (https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/co-est2020-alldata.xlsx); all calculations by TZE

7-day MA

August 10

(Sunday tests)

*State of Hawaii Office of the Governor (August 10, 2021) EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 21-05 (Statewide Limits for Social Gatherings, Restaurants, Bars, and Social Establishments)

(https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2108048-ATG_Executive-Order-No.-21-05-distribution-signed.pdf)

https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdisease2019/

https://census.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/co-est2020-alldata.xlsx

https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/2108048-ATG_Executive-Order-No.-21-05-distribution-signed.pdf

30


-.2

-.1

.0

.1

.2

.3

2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3

Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—time spent at home

relative to pre-Covid: remote work plus people act before government

Sources: Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Nathaniel Hendren, Michael Stepner, and the Opportunity Insights Team (November 2020) “The Economic Impacts of COVID-19: Evidence from a New Public Database Built Using

Private Sector Data” (https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf, data at

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/main/data/Google%20Mobility%20-%20State%20-%20Daily.csv)

Aug. 2State City

lockdown

Daily dwell time relative to January 2020

https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/main/data/Google%20Mobility%20-%20State%20-%20Daily.csv

31


Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—“park use”: public

behavior turning points lead non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)

-.8

-.6

-.4

-.2

.0

.2


2020:Q1 2020:Q2 2020:Q3 2020:Q4 2021:Q1 2021:Q2 2021:Q3




Aug. 2

State City

lockdown



32


-.30

-.25

-.20

-.15

-.10

-.05

.00


2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3

Google GPS mobility data for Hawaii (residents)—“time spent away

from home” (workplace, shopping, recreation, etc.) getting Delta-ed




Aug. 2

State City

lockdown



33


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Deaths per thousand Hawaii residents

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Pearl

Harbor

Spinal

meningitis

Influenza

Bubonic

plague

Measles8.6

Those who forget history are condemned to retweet it: Hawaii’s worst

year during the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic was 1920; death rates

Sources: Robert C. Schmitt (1977) Historical Statistics of Hawaii, University of Hawaii Press, DBEDT (various) State of Hawaii Data Book (http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/databook/).

http://dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/databook/

34



Pau

Documents

Challenges for Hawaii’s