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Reliability & Risk NewsletterJune 2020 Edition
CONTENTS1. 2. 3.
4.5
6.7.8.9
10. Sample CRE QuestionsCheck out our website at:
https://my.asq.org/communities/home/182
Chair’s Note Financial Report 1st QtrASQRRD website is movingWebinar recordings and slidesWebinars RoundupQE 2018‐2019 Best Paper& Social Media updateRelyence Corp adRAMS2020 2018‐2019 ASQ‐RD Leadership Reliability Pioneer: Richard Barlow
Trevor CranneyChair, ASQ Reliability & Risk Division
CHAIR’S NOTE
Well, it’s hard to believe. But when I looked back at my message to you from just three months ago, there was no mention of Covid or masks or sheltering in place. It’s amazing how quickly things changed. Like many of you, I’ve been working from home for about three months now. Talking with others, I know that some are less busy, some more. Some like working from home more, some less. Regardless, it’s where we’re at now and we’re all making the best of it. I hope this message finds you and your family safe and healthy.As with seemingly everything else, this pandemic has had an effect on ASQ and the plan for our division activities for 2020. We are lucky that our biggest event – RAMS – occurs in January. We had plans for a presence at WCQI in May and the second year of our RMMR conference to have come in August. Both of those have been cancelled. Our division leadership made the difficult decision to cancel RMMR, but the reality of putting together a program and a successful event when not many are thinking about travel or able to be supported for travel was a reality that could not be ignored.
We are in the process now of rescheduling the RMMR conference for August in 2021 in Napa, CA, and we will soon have exact dates and details to share.While we are limited from in-person networking and learning events for the remainder of 2020, we continue to offer our webinar series led by David Auda. Remember that those who register and watch a live webinar can earn RU’s for recertification. Our webinars are also recorded and saved for viewing availability at any time. See our website (www.asqrd.org) for more information.In publications, look for a special edition on reliability in Quality Engineering to be published later this year. This willbe our third such special edition in QE. These papers, as well as those submitted to QE on a regular basis will continue to be considered for the annual Best Reliability Paper awarded annually by the division.And, finally, as we go forward, consider volunteering for the division. We will have numerous activities in 2021 and we can add more as ideas are identified and volunteers step forward. We have received some interest and with all the changes this year, we are working to make sure that everyone who is interested has a chance to contribute in a meaningful way. If you have an idea or would like to discuss opportunities in the division, please send an email to: [email protected] and we can start the conversation.
Stay safe,Trevor Craney
ASQ‐RRD Financial Summary (as of June 16, 2020):
Current Billhighway account balance: $19,023.12
• Expected Net thru 6/30/2020: ($12,972.81)
• [Note: $9,720 of expense is cancellation fee for RMMR 2020, which will be applied as a credit to the hotel master account for RMMR 2021.]
• Each category of revenue and expense for 2020 is expected to be less than $1000, and will essentially offset, implying that our mid‐year net is representative of what we expect to have as a net at year end.
Trevor Craney
Revenue $12,672.14
Expense & Fees $21,619.99
Additional Revenue expected by 6/30/2020 $9,284.40
Additional Expense & Fees expected by 6/30/2020 $13,309.36
Financial Summary/ Social Media update
Social Media Update
2
Webinar Statistics– 105,030 unique webinar registrations (Based on email addresses)
– 22690 RU’s accountable (Total visits)– Average 99 attendees (95 last report)– 222 Webinars offered end of Feb 2020
(since 2010)
Social Media Status:• 4239 Members on LinkedIn• 666 + 239 Followers on Twitter• Facebook 62 pagelikes (67 Followers)
How are people learning about ASQ RRD?
Welcome to MyASQAs announced we will move to MyASQ with all our news and information. This is part of the ASQ transformation.This means we are also “live” at ASQ’s MyASQ
https://my.asq.org/communities/home/182For the time being the website will keep on existing, but will slowly fade out.So please keep a close eye on ASQ Reliability and Risk Division on MyASQ
Webinar recordings and slides
1. Best Practices For Performing Remote Internal And External Audits http://www.asqrd.org/video‐and‐slides‐of‐the‐asq‐rrd‐series‐webinar‐best‐practices‐for‐performing‐remote‐internal‐and‐external‐audits/
2. Organizational culture change- Taking the Wakeup call
http://www.asqrd.org/video‐and‐slides‐of‐the‐webinar‐asq‐rrd‐series‐organizational‐culture‐change‐taking‐the‐wake‐up‐call/
3. Too late to Prevent- the Navigate through it?
http://www.asqrd.org/video‐of‐the‐webinar‐asq‐rrd‐series‐webinar‐too‐late‐to‐prevent‐then‐plan‐to‐navigate‐through‐it/
4. Integrating FMEAs, FMEDAs and Fault trees For Functional Safety
http://www.asqrd.org/video-of-the-webinar-asq-rrd-series-integrating-fmeas-fmedas-and-fault-trees-for-functional-safety/
5. Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing (GD&T)
http://www.asqrd.org/slides-and-video-of-the-webinar-asq-rrd-series-geometric-dimensioning-and-tolerancing-gdt/
6. Design FMEA Ratings – Deepening the Understanding
http://www.asqrd.org/video-of-the-webinar-asq-rrd-series-design-fmea-ratings-deepening-the-understanding/
7. Process FMEA Ratings – Deepening the Understanding
http://www.asqrd.org/video-of-the-webinar-asq-rrd-series-process-fmea-ratings-deepening-the-understanding/
8. Introduction to Fractional Failure and Its Application in Reliability Engineering & Risk Assessment
http://www.asqrd.org/slides-and-video-of-the-webinar-asq-rrd-series-introduction-to-fractional-failure-and-its-application-in-reliability-engineering-risk-assessment/
ASQRRD website moving to MYASQ
Webinar Roundup!!
4
Upcoming ASQ RRD Webinars
1. Date: Thursday July 9, noon EDTTopic: Weibull – When being Normal is not good enoughBY: Wes FultonLink: http://www.asqrd.org/asq‐rrd‐series‐webinar‐weibull‐when‐being‐normal‐is‐not‐good‐enough2. Date: Tue, Jul 7, 12:15 AM CESTTopic: Aplicación integral de Técnicas de Auditorías y Benchmarking en los Procesos de Mantenimiento y ConfiabilidadBY: Carlos ParraLink: TBA2. Date: Thursday August 13, noon EDTTopic: Capability Maturity Model Integrated (CMMI)BY: Jeff DaltonLink: TBA3. Date: Thursday October 8, noon EDTTopic: Overview of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs)BY: TBDLink: TBA
Calling all Webinar Authors!!Dave Auda ([email protected])
We would like to extend an invitation on behalf of the ASQ Risk and Reliability Division (ASQRRD). If you would be interested in being a presenter of an ASQRRD webinar, contact Dave Auda. Webinars run every 2nd Thursday of the month at noon EDT for 1 hour,. The content should be something that the attendees can use, Reliability‐related knowledge and/or skill. Why present? A large potential audience that we invite, an additional entry to your
resume demonstrating competence, refine your skills, AND earn recertification points. If you have need of support in developing, preparing and/or presenting at such an
event, we can support. Become a recognized subject matter expert!
Quality Engineering: Special Issue on Reliability Engineering
QE 2020 Special Issue / Tech Spot
How to Reduce Test TimeHow to Reduce Test TimeLeonard G. Johnson (General Motors Research) in his book “The Statistical Treatment of Fatigue Experiments” suggested three ways to reduce test time:1. Run (simultaneously) more test samples than you intend to failure.Suppose you have funding for testing 20 samples, put them all on test at the same time and stop after 10 have failed (saving test time on the remaining 10). This allows you to produce a 10 point Weibull with 10 right censored (unfailed) points. For a β=1 the median time required for failing 10 out of 20 is 24% of the median time required to fail 10 out of 10.For a β=3 the median time required for failing 10 out of 20 is 62% of the median time required to fail 10 out of 10.2. Sudden Death Testing In Sudden Death Testing the total sample to be tested (from a recommended as few as nine units to more than 15 units… depending on cost) is divided into groups of three or more. All groups being of equal size. All units in each group are (preferably) tested simultaneously. When the first unit in a group fails, the group has failed (weakest link) and testing is stopped on the remaining units in the group. Hence the name “Sudden Death” testing. Sudden Death testing has reduced bearing test times by 60 to 75%; saving experimental test time, and just as important, has saved calendar time.3. Sequential Testing Sequential testing is a method of experimental testing (and statistical analysis) whose characteristic feature is that the number of observations required by the procedure is not determined in advance of the experiment. Essentially this approach let’s one design a large scale experiment in successive stages, where the next stage depends on what occurred in the previous stage. Specifically, the decision to terminate or continue the experiment depends, at each stage, on the results of the observations previously made. A merit of the sequential method, as applied to reliability testing, is that test procedures can be constructed which require, on the average, a substantially smaller number of observations than equally reliable test procedures based on a predetermined number of observations.
Reliability & Quality Software
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• Integrated suite
• Stand-alone tools
• FMEA, FMECA
• FRACAS, CAPA
• Fault Tree
• Reliability PredicCon
• Reliability Block Diagram
• RCM, Maintainability
• Weibull
• ALT
• Browser-based
• On-premise or cloud-based
• Training and implementaCon
• Knowledgeable tech support
• Free, no install trial
Relyence® offers a complete solu2on for all your reliability and quality so8ware needs. Along with our so8ware tools, we offer top-notch technical support, implementa2on services, and training.
The Relyence SoluCon. Providing seamless integra0on between FMEA (including Process Flow Diagrams and Control Plans), FRACAS, Fault Tree, Reliability Predic0on, RBD, RCM, Maintainability, Weibull, and ALT analyses, the Relyence tool suite empowers you to effec0vely manage your products throughout their lifecycle. You can use each module stand-alone, or combine the tools you need in our Relyence Studio integrated plaLorm.
Power & InnovaCon. Relyence tools offer an impressive list of features. Just a few of the highlights include: customizable cross-module dashboards; user-interface customiza0on; flexible report genera0on; data impor0ng and expor0ng; API func0onality; device libraries; workflow, approvals, and no0fica0ons; user and group roles and permissions; and Relyence innova0ons such always-in-syncTM technology, smart-layout, Knowledge BanksTM for lessons learned reusability, FMEA-Fault Tree link-syncTM, and Intelligent Part MappingTM for device decoding.
Flexibility & CollaboraCon. All Relyence tools can be accessed from any computer, PC, Mac, laptop, tablet, or smartphone for ul0mate flexibility and team collabora0on. You can use Relyence either as an on-premise installa0on on individual computers or a network, or as a zero-client, browser-based plaLorm with your data hosted in the MicrosoV cloud or in your own private cloud. The choice is yours!
Rely on Excellence. In conjunc0on with our soVware tools, we provide world-class services to help ensure your success. Our Implementa0on and Training teams can get you up to speed quickly, and our Technical Support team consistently provides support that is unparalleled in the industry.
relyence.com · 724.832.1900Relyence® is a registered trademark of Relyence Corpora6on. Other brand and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respec6ve holders.
TRY FOR FREE
FMEA・FRACAS・Fault Tree・Reliability Prediction RBD・RCM・Maintainability・Weibull・ALT
67th Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium
The 67th Annual Reliability & Maintainability Symposium (RAMS®) will be held at the Rosen Plaza Hotel, Orlando FL during the week of January 25‐28, 2021. The theme for RAMS® 2021 is “RAM in the Era of Big Data”.
With the advent and emergence of significant data availability for fielded equipment, reliability assessments can now be accomplished through the collection and timely analysis of equipment‐specific field data and health monitoring systems. Engaging advanced techniques, such as machine learning and other advanced analytics, with these data sets enable the state‐of‐the‐art to evolve to a much more proactive, effective, and cost‐efficient reliability management approach.
With this in mind, we invite you to share your theoretical or practical findings of your research, engineering case studies, success stories, lessons learned, R&M based analyses and simulations, or R&M discoveries at RAMS® 2021 Orlando. Tell us how you are designing, optimizing, and supporting systems (both hardware and software) through the execution of RAMS disciplines.
RAMS 2021 VenueRosen Plaza Hotel, Orlando
A standout among Orlando’sfinest meeting, conventionand vacation hotels, RosenPlaza Hotel is famous for itshigh standard of excellence.Impressive Orlando meetingspace, impeccable in‐housestaff and grandaccommodations assure aseamless meeting experiencefor groups ranging from 10 to2,800.
2020‐2021 ASQ‐RRD LEADERSHIP POSITIONS
Webinar Outreach
Executive Producer & Speaker Manager: David Auda ([email protected])Chinese Host: Frank Sun ([email protected])English Hosts: David Auda, Arun Gowtham SampathkumarSpanish Host: Norma Antunano ([email protected])Data Analysts: Rachel Stanford ([email protected]), Tim Gaens Video Editor: Tim Gaens ([email protected] )
Appointed Positions
Membership ChairTim [email protected]
Nominating ChairJim [email protected]
QE Best Paper Award ChairRong [email protected]
Newsletter Editors:Jim [email protected] Pourgol‐[email protected]
Social Media:Tim [email protected]
Webmaster:Tim [email protected]
MarketingAngleat [email protected]
Elected Positions
ChairTrevor [email protected]
Chair‐ElectTim [email protected]
SecretaryRong [email protected]
Contact Trevor ([email protected] ) to volunteer with us today!
• Richard Barlow is an American mathematician and mathematical statistician, who, with Frank Proschan, as the founders of modern reliability theory. He was a professor at the University of California, Berkeley from 1963 until his retirement in 1999.
• He introduced the concept of "Total Time on Test" processes in reliability theory. He and Proschanco‐wrote the book Mathematical Theory of Reliability, plus a number of additional papers and books.
• Barlow received his bachelor's degree in mathematics from Knox College in 1953 and his master's degree from the University of Oregon in 1955. In 1961 he received his doctorate in mathematical statistics from Stanford University under Samuel Karlin. His dissertation was titled Applications of Semi‐Markov Processes to Counter and Reliability Problems. After graduation, he worked at the Institute for Defense Analyses for a year. He was from 1963 until his retirement in 1999 a professor at UC Berkeley. During that same time: He was a guest scientist at the Boeing Laboratories in 1966 and at Florida State University in 1975 and 1976 (with Frank Proschan). From 1963 to 1969 he was an advisor to the Rand Corporation.
• In addition to reliability theory, he dealt with probabilistic modeling in Bayesian statistics and statistical data analysis.
• In 1991 he was awarded the John von Neumann Theory Prize with Frank Proschan. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, the American Statistical Association, and the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences.
Selected Publications
• Barlow R. E., Marshall A. W. & Proschan, F. (1963) Properties of probability distributions with monotone hazard rate. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 34(2): 375‐389.
• Barlow R. E. & Proschan F. (1965)Mathematical Theory of Reliability. John Wiley & Sons: New York.
• Barlow R. E., Bartholomew D. J., Bremner J. M., & Brunk H. D. (1972) Statistical inference under order restrictions: the theory and application of isotonic regression. Wiley & Sons: New York.
• Barlow R. E. & Proschan F. (1975) Statistical Theory of Reliability and Life Testing: Probability Models. Holt, Rinehart and Winston: New York.
• Barlow R. E. & Proschan F. (1975) Importance of system components and fault tree events. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 3(2): 153‐173.
• Barlow R. E. & Wu A. S. (1978) Coherent systems with multi‐state components.Mathematics of Operations Research, 3(4): 275‐281.
• Agrawal A. & Barlow R. E. (1984) A survey of network reliability and domination theory. Operations Research, 32(3): 478‐492.
• Barlow R. E. & Mendel M. B. (1992) De Finetti‐type representations for life distributions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(420): 1116‐1122.
• Barlow R. E. (1998) Engineering Reliability. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics: Philadelphia, PA.
• Barlow R. E., Lai C. D., & Xie M. (2006) Stochastic Ageing and Dependence for Reliability. Springer Science & Business: New York.
Jim Breneman
ASQ Senior Member and SAE Fellow‐ Reliability
Pioneers of Reliability SeriesRichard BarlowJanuary 12, 1931–
1. The lifetime of a mechanical lifter is normally distributed with a mean of 100 hours and a standard deviation of 3 hours. What is the reliability of the lifter at 106 hours ? A. 0.0228 B. 0.0570 C. 0.9430 D, 0.97722. A full factorial design of experiments has four factors. The first factor has two levels, the secondfactor has three levels, the third factor has two levels, and the final factor has four levels. How manyruns are required for this analysis ?A. 16 B. 48 C. 192 D. 2563. On the basis of the fault tree to the right, what is the likelihood of the top event occurring?A. 0.0050 B. 0.2600 C. 0.3000 D. 0.52004. Assuming perfect switching and perfect starting, which of the following systems
has the longest mean life if each system consists of n units with identical reliability ?A. A series system. B. A parallel system. C. A k out of n system. D. A cold standby system.5. Which of the following is an appropriate use for experimental design ?A. Establishing product requirements. B. Developing a fault-tree analysis.C. Ensuring the robust design of a product. D. Analyzing customer complaint reports.6. The primary aim of sequential-life testing is to determine:
A. The probability density function of failures.B. The mean time between failures (MTBF).C. Whether a lot meets the reliability goal.D. Whether the stress-level variation is significant7. A small sample from a product population is subjected to multiple levels of elevated stress. Which of the following could be used to model the life of the product ?A. Poisson process. B. Pascal expansion.C. Pareto rule. D. Inverse power law.8. A component fails on the average of once every 4 years with 75% of the failures observed to occur during stormy weather. If there are 12 hours of stormy weather to every 240 hours of good weather, what are the failure rates for stormy and good weather, respectively ?A. λ(Stormy) = 3.939 failure/yr, λ(Good) = 0.0656 failure/yr.B. λ(Stormy) = 4.202 failure/yr, λ(Good) = 0.0525 failure/yr.C. λ(Stormy) = 6.594 failure/yr, λ(Good) = 0.0458 failure/yr.D. λ(Stormy) = 20.16 failure/yr, λ(Good) = 0.0403 failure/yr.9. Given a reliability growth test in progress having accumulated 4 failures during 5000 test hours.Assume a growth rate of 0.3, what is the expected MTBF at 25,000 hours ?A. 1250 hrs B. 1895 hrs C. 2026 hrs D. 3856 hrs10. In a certain application, two identical transducers are used to measure the vacuum in a system. The system is considered to have failed if either of the vacuums read by the transducers varies from the standard by more than 10mm Hg. Which of the following is the correct reliability logic block diagram for the transducer assembly ?
TECH SPOT: SAMPLE CRE QUESTIONS (Part 10)
Answers will appear on ASQRRD blog by March 31
