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    Chapter 13

    Game Theory and CompetitiveStrategy

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 2

    Topics to be Discussed

    Gaming and Strategic Decisions

    Dominant Strategies

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    Repeated Games

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 3

    Topics to be Discussed

    Sequential Games

    Threats, Commitments, and Credibility

    Entry Deterrence

    Bargaining Strategy

    Auctions

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 4

    Gaming and Strategic Decisions

    Game is any situation in whichplayers(the participants) make strategicdecisions

    Ex: firms competing with each other bysetting prices, group of consumers biddingagainst each other in an auction

    Strategic decisions result in payoffs tothe players: outcomes that generaterewards or benefits

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 5

    Gaming and Strategic Decisions

    Game theory tries to determine optimalstrategy for each player

    Strategy is a rule or plan of action forplaying the game

    Optimal strategy for a player is one thatmaximizes the expected payoff

    We consider players who are rationalthey think through their actions

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 6

    Gaming and Strategic Decisions

    If I believe that my competitors arerational and act to maximize their ownprofits, how should I take their behaviorinto account when making my own profit-maximizing decisions?(Text, p. 474)

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 7

    Noncooperative vs. Cooperative

    Games

    Cooperative Game

    Players negotiate binding contracts that allowthem to plan joint strategies

    Example: Buyer and seller negotiating the priceof a good or service or a joint venture by twofirms (i.e., Microsoft and Apple)

    Binding contracts are possible

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 8

    Noncooperative vs. Cooperative

    Games

    Noncooperative Game

    Negotiation and enforcement of bindingcontracts between players is not possible

    Example: Two competing firms, assuming theothers behavior, independently determinepricing and advertising strategy to gain marketshare

    Binding contracts are not possible

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 9

    Noncooperative vs. Cooperative

    Games

    The strategy design is based onunderstanding your opponents point ofview, and (assuming your opponent isrational) deducing how he or she is likelyto respond to your actions. (Text, p. 475)

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 10

    Gaming and Strategic Decisions

    An Example: How to buy a dollar bill1. Auction a dollar bill

    2. Highest bidder receives the dollar in return for the

    amount bid3. Second highest bidder must pay the amount he or

    she bid but gets nothing in return

    4. How much would you bid for a dollar?

    Typically bid more for the dollar when facedwith loss as second highest bidder

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 11

    Acquiring a Company

    Scenario

    Company A: The Acquirer

    Company T: The Target

    A will offer cash for all of Ts shares

    The value and viability of T depends onthe outcome of a current oil exploration

    project

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 12

    Acquiring a Company

    Project failure: Ts value = $0

    Project success: Ts value = $100/share

    All outcomes in between equally likely Ts value will be 50% greater with As

    management

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 13

    Acquiring a Company

    Scenario

    A must submit the proposal before theexploration outcome is known

    T will not choose to accept or reject untilafter the outcome is known only to T

    Company T will accept any offer that isgreater than the per share value of thecompany under current management

    How much should A offer?

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 14

    Dominant Strategies

    Dominant Strategy is one that is optimalno matter what an opponent does

    An Example

    A and B sell competing products

    They are deciding whether to undertakeadvertising campaigns

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 15

    Payoff Matrix for Advertising

    Game

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Advertise

    DontAdvertise

    Firm B

    10, 5 15, 0

    10, 26, 8

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 16

    Payoff Matrix for Advertising

    Game

    Observations

    A: regardless of B,advertising is the best

    B: regardless of A,advertising is best

    Firm A

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Firm B

    10, 5 15, 0

    10, 26, 8

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 17

    Payoff Matrix for Advertising

    Game

    Observations

    Dominant strategy forA and B is to

    advertiseDo not worry about

    the other player

    Equilibrium indominant strategy

    Firm A

    Advertise DontAdvertise

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Firm B

    10, 5 15, 0

    10, 26, 8

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 18

    Dominant Strategies

    Equilibrium in dominant strategies

    Outcome of a game in which each firm isdoing the best it can regardless of what its

    competitors are doing

    Optimal strategy is determined withoutworrying about the actions of other players

    However, not every game has adominant strategy for each player

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 19

    Dominant Strategies

    Game Without Dominant Strategy

    The optimal decision of a player without adominant strategy will depend on what the

    other player does

    Revising the payoff matrix, we can see asituation where no dominant strategy exists

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 20

    10, 5 15, 0

    20, 26, 8

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Advertise

    DontAdvertise

    Firm B

    Modified Advertising Game

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 21

    10, 5 15, 0

    20, 26, 8

    Firm A

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Advertise

    Dont

    Advertise

    Firm B

    Modified Advertising Game

    Observations

    A: No dominantstrategy; depends on

    Bs actions

    B: Dominant strategyis to advertise

    Firm A determines Bs

    dominant strategy andmakes its decisionaccordingly

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 22

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    A dominant strategy is stable, but inmany games one or more party does nothave a dominant strategy

    A more general equilibrium concept is theNash Equilibrium introduced in Chapter12

    A set of strategies (or actions) such thateach player is doing the best it can given theactions of its opponents

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 23

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    None of the players have incentive todeviate from its Nash strategy, thereforeit is stable

    In the Cournot model, each firm sets its ownprice assuming the other firms outputs arefixed. Cournot equilibrium is a NashEquilibrium.

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 24

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    Dominant StrategyIm doing the best I can no matter what you

    do. Youre doing the best you can no matter

    what I do.Nash EquilibriumIm doing the best I can given what you are

    doing. Youre doing the best you can given

    what I am doing.Dominant strategy is a special case of

    Nash equilibrium

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 25

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    Two cereal companies face a market in whichtwo new types of cereal can be successfullyintroduced, provided each type is introduced by

    only one firm Product Choice Problem

    Market for one producer of crispy cereal

    Market for one producer of sweet cereal

    Each firm only has the resources to introduce onecereal

    Noncooperative

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 26

    Product Choice Problem

    Crispy Sweet

    Crispy

    Sweet

    Firm 2

    -5, -5 10, 10

    -5, -510, 10

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 27

    Product Choice Problem

    Firm 1

    Crispy Sweet

    Crispy

    Sweet

    Firm 2

    -5, -5 10, 10

    -5, -510, 10

    If Firm 1 hears Firm2 is introducing a

    new sweet cereal, itsbest action is tomake crispy

    Bottom left corner isNash equilibrium

    What is other NashEquilibrium?

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 28

    Beach Location Game

    Scenario

    Two competitors, Y and C, selling soft drinks

    Beach is 200 yards long

    Sunbathers are spread evenly along thebeach

    Price Y = Price C

    Customer will buy from the closest vendor

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 29

    Beach Location Game

    Where will the competitors locate (i.e.,where is the Nash equilibrium)?

    Will want to all locate in center of beach

    Similar to groups of gas stations, cardealerships, etc.

    Ocean

    0 B Beach A 200 yards

    C

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 30

    The Nash Equilibrium Revisited

    Maximin Strategies - ScenarioTwo firms compete selling file encryption

    software

    They both use the same encryption standard(files encrypted by one software can be readby the other - advantage to consumers)

    Firm 1 has a much larger market share than

    Firm 2Both are considering investing in a new

    encryption standard

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 31

    Maximin Strategy

    Firm1

    Dont invest Invest

    Firm 2

    0, 0 -10, 10

    20, 10-100, 0

    Dontinvest

    Invest

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 32

    Maximin Strategy

    Firm 1

    Dont invest InvestFirm 2

    0, 0 -10, 10

    20, 10-100, 0

    Dont invest

    Invest

    ObservationsDominant strategy

    Firm 2: Invest

    Firm 1 shouldexpect Firm 2 toinvest

    Nash equilibrium

    Firm 1: invest

    Firm 2: Invest

    This assumes Firm2 understands thegame and isrational

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 33

    Maximin Strategy

    Firm 1

    Dont invest InvestFirm 2

    0, 0 -10, 10

    20, 10-100, 0

    Dont invest

    Invest

    Observations IfFirm 2 does not

    invest, Firm 1

    incurs significantlosses

    Firm 1 might playdont invest

    Minimize losses

    to 10 maximinstrategy

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 34

    Maximin Strategy

    If both are rational and informedBoth firms invest

    Nash equilibrium

    If Player 2 is not rational or completelyinformedFirm 1s maximin strategy is to not invest

    Firm 2s maximin strategy is to invest

    If 1 knows 2 is using a maximin strategy, 1would invest

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 35

    Maximin Strategy

    If Firm 1 is unsure about what Firm 2 willdo, it can assign probabilities to eachpossible action

    Could use a strategy that maximizes itsexpected payoff

    Firm 1s strategy depends critically on itsassessment of probabilities for Firm 2

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 36

    Prisoners Dilemma

    Confess Dont Confess

    Confess

    Dont

    Confess

    Prisoner B

    -5, -5 -1, -10

    -2, -2-10, -1

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 37

    Prisoners Dilemma

    Prisoner A

    Confess Dont Confess

    Confess

    Dont

    Confess

    Prisoner B

    -5, -5 -1, -10

    -2, -2-10, -1

    What is the: Dominant strategy

    Nash equilibrium

    Maximin solution

    Dominant strategiesare also maximinstrategies

    Both confess is bothNash equilibrium and

    maximin solution

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 38

    Mixed Strategy

    Pure Strategy

    Player makes a specific choice or takes aspecific action

    Mixed Strategy

    Player makes a random choice among twoor more possible actions, based on a set of

    chosen probabilities

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 39

    Matching Pennies

    Heads Tails

    Heads

    Tails

    Player B

    1, -1 -1, 1

    1, -1-1, 1

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 40

    Matching Pennies

    Pure strategy: NoNash equilibrium

    No combination of

    head and tailsleaves both playersbetter off

    Mixed strategy:

    Random choice is aNash equilibrium

    Player A

    Heads Tails

    Heads

    Tails

    Player B

    1, -1 -1, 1

    1, -1-1, 1

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 41

    Matching Pennies

    Player A might flip coin playing headswith probability and tails with probability

    If both players follow this strategy, thereis a Nash equilibrium both players willbe doing the best they can given whattheir opponent is doing

    Although the outcome is random, theexpected payoff is 0 for each player

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 42

    Mixed Strategy

    One reason to consider mixed strategiesis when there is a game that does nothave any Nash equilibriums in pure

    strategyWhen allowing for mixed strategies,

    every game has a Nash equilibrium

    Mixed strategies are popular for gameslike poker

    A firm might not find it reasonable

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 43

    The Battle of the Sexes

    J im

    Wrestling Opera

    Wrestling

    Opera

    Joan

    2,1 0,0

    1,20,0

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 44

    The Battle of the Sexes

    Pure Strategy

    Both watch wrestling

    Both watch opera

    Mixed StrategyJim chooses

    wrestling

    Joan chooses

    wrestling

    J im

    Wrestling Opera

    Wrestling

    Opera

    Joan

    2,1 0,0

    1,20,0

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 45

    Repeated Games

    Game in which actions are taken andpayoffs are received over and over again

    Oligopolistic firms play a repeated game

    With each repetition of the PrisonersDilemma, firms can develop reputationsabout their behavior and study the

    behavior of their competitors

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 46

    Pricing Problem

    Firm 1

    Low Price High Price

    Low Price

    High Price

    Firm 2

    10, 10 100, -50

    50, 50-50, 100

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 47

    Pricing Problem

    How does a firm find a strategy thatwould work best on average against all oralmost all other strategies?

    Tit-for-tat strategy

    Repeated game strategy in which a playerresponds in kind to an opponents previous

    play, cooperating with cooperative opponentsand retaliating against uncooperative ones

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 48

    Tit-for-Tat Strategy

    What if the game is infinitely repeated?

    Competitors repeatedly set price everymonth, forever

    Tit-for-tat strategy is rational

    If competitor charges low price and undercutsfirm

    Will get high profits that month but know I will

    lower price next month Both of us will get lower profits if keep

    undercutting, so not rational to undercut

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 49

    Tit-for-Tat Strategy

    What if repeated a finite number of times?

    If both firms are rational, they will charge high pricesuntil the last month

    After the last month, there is no retaliation possibleBut in the month before last month, knowing that will

    charge low price in last month, will charge low price inmonth before

    Keep going and see that only rational outcome is for

    both firms to charge low price every month

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 50

    Tit-for-Tat Strategy

    If firms dont believe their competitors arerational or think perhaps they arent,cooperative behavior is a good strategy

    Most managers dont know how long theywill be competing with their rivals

    In a repeated game, prisoners dilemma

    can have cooperative outcome

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 51

    Repeated Games

    Conclusion

    Cooperation is difficult at best since thesefactors may change in the long run

    Need a small number of firms

    Need stable demand and cost conditions

    This could lead to price wars if dont have them

    Oli li ti C ti

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 52

    Oligopolistic Cooperation

    in the Water Meter Industry

    Characteristics of the Market

    Four producers of water meters

    Rockwell International

    Badger Meter

    Neptune Water Meter Company

    Hersey Products

    Rockwell has about 35% of market share

    Badger, Neptune, and Hersey combined haveabout a 50 to 55% share

    Oli li ti C ti

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 53

    Oligopolistic Cooperation

    in the Water Meter Industry

    Most buyers are municipal water utilities

    Very inelastic demandNot a significant part of the budget for

    providing waterDemand is stableDemand grows steadily with population

    Utilities have long-standing relationshipswith suppliersReluctant to switch

    Oli li ti C ti

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 54

    Oligopolistic Cooperation

    in the Water Meter Industry

    Significant economies of scale

    Both long term relationship andeconomies of scale represent barriers to

    entryHard for new firms to enter market

    If firms were to cooperate, could earnsignificant monopoly profits

    If compete aggressively to gain marketshare, profits will fall to competitive levels

    Oli li ti C ti

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 55

    Oligopolistic Cooperation

    in the Water Meter Industry

    This is a Prisoners Dilemma whatshould the firms do?

    Lower price to a competitive level

    Cooperate

    Companies have been playing repeatedgame for decades

    Cooperation has prevailed given marketcharacteristics

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 56

    Sequential Games

    Players move in turn, responding to eachothers actions and reactions

    Ex: Stackelberg model (ch. 12)

    Responding to a competitors ad campaign

    Entry decisions

    Responding to regulatory policy

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 57

    Sequential Games

    Going back to the product choiceproblem

    Two new (sweet, crispy) cereals

    Successful only if each firm produces onecereal

    Sweet will sell better

    Both still profitable with only one producer

    M difi d P d t Ch i

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 58

    Modified Product Choice

    Problem

    If firms both announce their decisionsindependently and simultaneously, theywill both pick sweet cereal and both will

    lose money

    What if Firm 1 sped up production andintroduced new cereal first?

    Now there is a sequential gameFirm 1 will think about what Firm 2 will do

    M difi d P d t Ch i

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 59

    Modified Product Choice

    Problem

    Crispy Sweet

    Crispy

    Sweet

    Firm 2

    -5, -5 10, 20

    -5, -520, 10

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 60

    Extensive Form of a Game

    Extensive Form of a Game

    Representation of possible moves in agame in the form of a decision tree

    Allows one to work backward from the bestoutcome for Firm 1

    Prod ct Choice Game in

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 61

    Product Choice Game in

    Extensive Form

    Crispy

    Sweet

    Crispy

    Sweet

    -5, -5

    10, 20

    20, 10

    -5, -5

    Firm 1

    Crispy

    Sweet

    Firm 2

    Firm 2

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 62

    Sequential Games

    The Advantage of Moving First

    In this product-choice game, there is a clearadvantage to moving first

    The first firm can choose a large level ofoutput, thereby forcing second firm to choosea small level

    Can show the firms mover advantage by

    revising the Stackelberg model andcomparing to Cournot

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 63

    First Mover Advantage

    Assume: Duopoly

    Firmand

    ProductionTotal

    /1001010:

    0

    30

    21

    21

    PQQCournot

    MC

    QQQ

    QP

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 64

    First Mover Advantage

    Duopoly

    25.5650.112

    50.7and5.715

    rg)(StackelbeFirstMovesFirm

    Firm/50.11215and5.7

    CollusionWith

    21

    21

    21

    PQQ

    PQQ

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 65

    Choosing Output

    Firm1

    7.5

    Firm 2

    112.50, 112.50 56.25, 112.50

    0, 0112.50, 56.25

    125, 93.75 50, 75

    93.75, 125

    75, 50

    100, 100

    10 15

    7.5

    10

    15

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 66

    Choosing Output

    This payoff matrixillustrates variousoutcomes

    Move together, bothproduce 10

    If Firm 1 moves first(Q=15), best Firm 2

    can do is 7.5

    Firm 1

    7.5

    Firm 2

    112.50, 112.50 56.25, 112.50

    0, 0112.50, 56.25

    125, 93.75 50, 75

    93.75, 125

    75, 50

    100, 100

    10 15

    7.5

    10

    15

    Threats Commitments and

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 67

    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    Strategic Moves

    What actions can a firm take to gainadvantage in the marketplace?

    Deter entry Induce competitors to reduce output, leave,

    raise price

    Implicit agreements that benefit one firm

    Threats Commitments and

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 68

    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    Strategic Move

    Action that gives a player an advantage byconstraining his behavior

    Firm 1 must constrain his behavior to theextent Firm 2 is convinced that he iscommitted

    Threats Commitments and

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 69

    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    How to Make the First MoveDemonstrate Commitment

    Firm 1 must do more than announce they will

    produce sweet cereal Invest in expensive advertising campaign

    Buy large order of sugar and send invoice toFirm 2

    Commitment must be enough to induce Firm2 to make the decision Firm 1 wants it tomake

    Threats Commitments and

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 70

    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    Empty Threats

    If a firm will be worse off if it charges a lowprice, the threat of a low price is not credible

    in the eyes of the competitorsWhen firms know the payoffs of each others

    actions, firms cannot make threats the otherfirm knows they will not follow

    In our example, Firm 1 will always chargehigh price and Firm 2 knows it

    Pricing of Computers and Word

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 71

    Pricing of Computers and Word

    Processors

    Firm 1

    High Price Low Price

    High Price

    Low Price

    Firm 2

    100, 80 80, 100

    10, 2020, 0

    Threats Commitments and

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 72

    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    Sometimes firms can make crediblethreats

    Scenario

    Race Car Motors, Inc. (RCM) produces cars

    Far Out Engines (FOE) produces specialtycar engines and sells most of them to RCM

    Sequential game with RCM as the leaderFOE has no power to threaten to build big

    engines since RCM controls output

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    2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 73

    Production Choice Problem

    Far Out Engines

    Small cars Big cars

    Small

    engines

    Bigengines

    Race Car Moto rs

    3, 6 3, 0

    8, 31, 1

    Threats Commitments and

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    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    RCM does best by producing small cars

    Knows that Far Out will then producesmall engines

    Far Out prefers to make big engines

    Can Far Out induce Race Car to producebig cars instead?

    Threats Commitments and

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    Threats, Commitments, and

    Credibility

    Suppose Far Out threatens to producebig engines no matter what RCM does?

    Not credible since once RCM announces

    they are producing small cars, FOE will nothave incentive to carry out threat

    Can make threat credible by altering pay offmatrix by constraining its own choices

    Shutting down or destroying some small engineproduction capacity

    Modified Production Choice

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    Modified Production Choice

    Problem

    0, 6 0, 0

    8, 31, 1

    Far Ou t Engin es

    Small cars Big cars

    Small

    engines

    Big

    engines

    Race Car Motor s

    Modified Production Choice

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    Modified Production Choice

    Problem

    Strategic commitments can be effectivebut not without risk

    Rely heavily on accurate knowledge of payoff

    matrix and industryMay have competitors out there that they

    dont know about and lose sales

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    Role of Reputation

    If Far Out gets the reputation of beingirrationalThey threaten to produce large engines no

    matter what Race Car does Threat might be credible because

    irrational people dont always make profitmaximizing decisions

    A party thought to be crazy can lead to asignificant advantage

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Bargaining situation can depend onability to affect relative bargainingposition

    Consider two firms introducing one of twocomplementary goods:

    Firm 1 has cost advantage in Good A

    Firm 2 has cost advantage in Good B

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Firm 1

    Produce A Produce B

    Produce A

    Produce B

    Firm 2

    40, 5 50, 50

    5, 4560, 40

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    Bargaining Strategy

    With collusion:

    Firm 1 Produces Aand Firm 2 producesB (50,50)

    Without collusion:

    Firm 1 produces Aand Firm 2 producesB (50,50)

    Nash equilibrium

    Firm 1

    Produce A Produce B

    Produce A

    Produce B

    Firm 2

    40, 5 50, 50

    5, 4560, 40

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Suppose each firm is also bargaining onthe decision to join in a researchconsortium with a third firm

    Dominant strategy is for both firms toenter consortium

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Firm 1

    Work alone Enter consortium

    Work alone

    Enterconsortium

    Firm 2

    10, 10 10, 20

    40, 4020, 10

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Linking the Bargaining Problem

    Firm 1 announces it will join the consortiumonly if Firm 2 agrees to produce A and Firm 1

    will produce BFirm 2s best interest is to produce A with

    Firm 1 producing B

    Firm 1s profit increases from 50 to 60

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    Bargaining Strategy

    Strategic moves can be used inbargaining

    Combining issues in bargaining can

    benefit one side at others expense

    Wal-Mart Stores Preemptive

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    Wal Mart Stores Preemptive

    Investment Strategy

    How did Wal-Mart become the largestretailer in the U.S. when manyestablished retail chains were closing

    their doors?Gained monopoly power by opening in small

    towns with no threat of other discountcompetition

    Preemptive game with Nash equilibrium

    The Discount Store Preemption

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    The Discount Store Preemption

    Game

    Wal-Mart

    Enter Dont enter

    Enter

    Dont enter

    Company X

    -10, -10 20, 0

    0, 00, 20

    The Discount Store Preemption

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    The Discount Store Preemption

    Game

    Two Nash equilibrium

    Low left

    Upper right

    Must be preemptiveto win

    Wal-Mart

    Enter Dont enter

    Enter

    Dont enter

    Company X

    -10, -10 20, 0

    0, 00, 20

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    Entry Deterrence

    Barriers to entry important for monopolypower

    Economies of scale, patents and licenses,

    access to critical inputsFirms can also deter entry

    To deter entry, the incumbent firm must

    convince any potential competitor thatentry will be unprofitable

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    Entry Possibilities

    Incum bent (I)

    Enter Stay out

    High price(accommodation)

    Low Price(warfare)

    Potent ial Ent rant (X)($80 fixed cos ts)

    100, 20 200, 0

    130, 070, -10

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    Entry Deterrence

    Scenario

    If X does not enter, I makes a profit of $200million

    If X enters and charges a high price, I earnsa profit of $100 million and X earns $20million

    If X enters and charges a low price, I earns a

    profit of $70 million and X earns $-10 million

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    Entry Deterrence

    Could threaten X with warfare if entersmarket

    Not credible because once X has entered, it

    is in your best interest to accommodate andmaintain high price

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    Entry Deterrence

    What if firm I makes an investment beforeentry to increase capacity?

    Irrevocable commitment

    Gives new payoff matrix since profits willbe reduced by investment

    Threat is completely credible

    Rational for Firm X to stay out of market

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    Entry Deterrence

    Inc umbent (I)

    Enter Stay out

    High price(accommodation)

    Low price(warfare)

    Potent ial Entr ant (X)

    50, 20 150, 0

    130, 070, -10

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    Entry Deterrence

    If incumbent has reputation of pricecutting competitors even at loss, thenthreat will be credible

    Short run losses may be offset by longrun gains as monopolist

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    Entry Deterrence

    Production of commercial airlines exhibitsignificant economies of scale

    Airbus and Boeing considering new

    aircraft

    Suppose it is not economical for bothfirms to produce the new aircraft

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    Development of a New Aircraft

    Boeing

    Produce Dont produceAirbus

    -10, -10 100, 0

    0, 00, 120

    Produce

    Dont produce

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    Development of a New Aircraft

    Boeing has headstart

    Boeing will produce

    Airbus will notproduce

    Boeing

    Produce Dont produce

    Airbus

    -10, -10 100, 0

    0, 00, 120

    Produce

    Dont produce

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    Development of a New Aircraft

    Governments can change outcome ofgame

    European government agrees to

    subsidize Airbus before Boeing decidesto produce

    With Airbus being subsidized, the payoff

    matrix for the two firms would differsignificantly

    Development of an Aircraft

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    After European Subsidy

    Boeing

    Produce Dont produceAirbus

    -10, 10 100, 0

    0, 00, 120

    Produce

    Dont produce

    Development of an Aircraft

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    Boeing

    Produce Dont produce

    Airbus

    -10, 10 100, 0

    0, 00, 120

    Produce

    Dont produce

    After European Subsidy

    Airbus will produce

    Boeing will notproduce

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    Diaper Wars

    Even though there are only two majorfirms, competition is intense

    The competition occurs mostly in the

    form of cost-reducing innovation

    Small cost savings can lead to capturingof market share

    Both firms spend significantly on R&D

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    Competing Through R & D

    P&G

    R&D No R&D

    R&D

    No R&D

    Kimberly-Clark

    40, 20 80, -20

    60, 40-20, 60

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    Competing Through R & D

    Both spend on R&D

    Dominant strategy

    Why not cooperate?

    StrengtheningBargaining Power

    Credibility

    Reducing flexibilityP&G

    R&D No R&D

    R&D

    No R&D

    Kimberly-Clark

    40, 20 80, -20

    60, 40-20, 60

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    Auctions

    Markets in which products are bought andsold through formal bidding processes

    Encourages competition that increases

    sellers revenueLow cost of transactions

    Useful for unique items or those withfluctuating value

    Tokyo fish market

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    Auction Formats

    1. Traditional English (oral)

    Seller actively solicits progressively higherbids from a group of potential buyers

    Buyers are always aware of highest bid Stops when no one passes highest bid

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    Auction Formats

    2. Dutch auction

    Seller begins by offering item at relativelyhigh price, then reduces it by fixed amounts

    until item is sold First buyer accepting offered price can buy

    item at that price

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    Auction Formats

    3. Sealed-bid

    All bids are made simultaneously in sealedenvelopes, where winning bid is the one

    who submitted highest bidA. First price

    Sales price equals highest bid

    B. Second price

    Sales price equals second highest bid

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    Valuation and Information

    How to choose an auction format

    1. Private-value auction bidder knowsindividual valuations of object, but

    valuations differ from bidder to bidder Signed baseball

    2. Common-value auction: bidders uncertainwhat the value is

    Offshore oil reserve

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    Price-Value Auctions

    Each bidder must choose biddingstrategy

    Payoff for winning is reservation price

    minus price paid

    Payoff for losing is zero

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    Private Value Auction

    English oral auction and secondpricesealed bid auctions

    Bidding truthfully is dominant strategy

    Pay based on value of second highest bidderso no incentive not to bid reservation price

    Risk to bidding higher than reservation price

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    Private Value Auctions

    English auction

    Continue bidding until second person isunwilling to make bid

    Sealed-bid auctionWinning bid approximately equal to the

    second highest bidders reservation price

    Both yield the same revenue

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    Common Value Auctions

    Winners Curse

    The winner is worse off because theyoverestimated the value of the item and

    thereby overbidMust reduce bid by amount equal to the

    expected error of the winning bidder

    If a lot of variation in other bidders, then

    estimates are fairly imprecise

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    Maximizing Auction Revenue

    1. Private Value Auction

    Encourages many bidders to increaseexpected bid of winner

    2. Common Value Auction Uses open rather than sealed bid

    Generates greater revenue

    Reveals information about true value,reducing concern of winners curse

    M i i i A ti R

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    Maximizing Auction Revenue

    3. Private value auction

    Sets min bid equal to or higher than valueto you of keeping good for future sale

    Protects against loss if bidders are unawareof value

    Increases size of bids by letting biddersthink item is valuable

    No sale could make bidders think item islow quality

    Biddi d C ll i

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    Bidding and Collusion

    Buyers can allow benefit from collusion

    Can be done legally through buying groups

    Can be done illegally through collusive

    agreements that violate antitrust lawsCollusion is not easy because of large

    incentive to cheat

    Repeated auctions allow for penalizing

    participants that break agreement

    Biddi d C ll i

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    Bidding and Collusion

    Examples

    1. Collusion among baseball owners tolimit their bidding for free agent players

    in the 1980s2. Two of the worlds most successful

    auction houses were found guilty of

    agreeing to fix prices of commissions Sothebys and Christies

    I t t A ti

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    Internet Auctions

    Popularity of auctions has skyrocketedwith growth of internet

    Most popular site is eBay

    Dominates online person-person auctionindustry

    Subject to large network externalities

    Choose auction site with largest number ofpotential bidders

    I t t A ti

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    Internet Auctions

    eBay auctions are somewhat differentfrom types discussed

    A few caveats:

    No quality control function

    Poor seller feedback

    Bid manipulation may occur