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Chapter 13
Game Theory and CompetitiveStrategy
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 2
Topics to be Discussed
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
Dominant Strategies
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
Repeated Games
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 3
Topics to be Discussed
Sequential Games
Threats, Commitments, and Credibility
Entry Deterrence
Bargaining Strategy
Auctions
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 4
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
Game is any situation in whichplayers(the participants) make strategicdecisions
Ex: firms competing with each other bysetting prices, group of consumers biddingagainst each other in an auction
Strategic decisions result in payoffs tothe players: outcomes that generaterewards or benefits
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 5
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
Game theory tries to determine optimalstrategy for each player
Strategy is a rule or plan of action forplaying the game
Optimal strategy for a player is one thatmaximizes the expected payoff
We consider players who are rationalthey think through their actions
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 6
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
If I believe that my competitors arerational and act to maximize their ownprofits, how should I take their behaviorinto account when making my own profit-maximizing decisions?(Text, p. 474)
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 7
Noncooperative vs. Cooperative
Games
Cooperative Game
Players negotiate binding contracts that allowthem to plan joint strategies
Example: Buyer and seller negotiating the priceof a good or service or a joint venture by twofirms (i.e., Microsoft and Apple)
Binding contracts are possible
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 8
Noncooperative vs. Cooperative
Games
Noncooperative Game
Negotiation and enforcement of bindingcontracts between players is not possible
Example: Two competing firms, assuming theothers behavior, independently determinepricing and advertising strategy to gain marketshare
Binding contracts are not possible
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 9
Noncooperative vs. Cooperative
Games
The strategy design is based onunderstanding your opponents point ofview, and (assuming your opponent isrational) deducing how he or she is likelyto respond to your actions. (Text, p. 475)
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 10
Gaming and Strategic Decisions
An Example: How to buy a dollar bill1. Auction a dollar bill
2. Highest bidder receives the dollar in return for the
amount bid3. Second highest bidder must pay the amount he or
she bid but gets nothing in return
4. How much would you bid for a dollar?
Typically bid more for the dollar when facedwith loss as second highest bidder
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 11
Acquiring a Company
Scenario
Company A: The Acquirer
Company T: The Target
A will offer cash for all of Ts shares
The value and viability of T depends onthe outcome of a current oil exploration
project
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 12
Acquiring a Company
Project failure: Ts value = $0
Project success: Ts value = $100/share
All outcomes in between equally likely Ts value will be 50% greater with As
management
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 13
Acquiring a Company
Scenario
A must submit the proposal before theexploration outcome is known
T will not choose to accept or reject untilafter the outcome is known only to T
Company T will accept any offer that isgreater than the per share value of thecompany under current management
How much should A offer?
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 14
Dominant Strategies
Dominant Strategy is one that is optimalno matter what an opponent does
An Example
A and B sell competing products
They are deciding whether to undertakeadvertising campaigns
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 15
Payoff Matrix for Advertising
Game
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Advertise
DontAdvertise
Firm B
10, 5 15, 0
10, 26, 8
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 16
Payoff Matrix for Advertising
Game
Observations
A: regardless of B,advertising is the best
B: regardless of A,advertising is best
Firm A
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Firm B
10, 5 15, 0
10, 26, 8
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 17
Payoff Matrix for Advertising
Game
Observations
Dominant strategy forA and B is to
advertiseDo not worry about
the other player
Equilibrium indominant strategy
Firm A
Advertise DontAdvertise
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Firm B
10, 5 15, 0
10, 26, 8
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 18
Dominant Strategies
Equilibrium in dominant strategies
Outcome of a game in which each firm isdoing the best it can regardless of what its
competitors are doing
Optimal strategy is determined withoutworrying about the actions of other players
However, not every game has adominant strategy for each player
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 19
Dominant Strategies
Game Without Dominant Strategy
The optimal decision of a player without adominant strategy will depend on what the
other player does
Revising the payoff matrix, we can see asituation where no dominant strategy exists
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 20
10, 5 15, 0
20, 26, 8
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Advertise
DontAdvertise
Firm B
Modified Advertising Game
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 21
10, 5 15, 0
20, 26, 8
Firm A
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Advertise
Dont
Advertise
Firm B
Modified Advertising Game
Observations
A: No dominantstrategy; depends on
Bs actions
B: Dominant strategyis to advertise
Firm A determines Bs
dominant strategy andmakes its decisionaccordingly
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 22
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
A dominant strategy is stable, but inmany games one or more party does nothave a dominant strategy
A more general equilibrium concept is theNash Equilibrium introduced in Chapter12
A set of strategies (or actions) such thateach player is doing the best it can given theactions of its opponents
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 23
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
None of the players have incentive todeviate from its Nash strategy, thereforeit is stable
In the Cournot model, each firm sets its ownprice assuming the other firms outputs arefixed. Cournot equilibrium is a NashEquilibrium.
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 24
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
Dominant StrategyIm doing the best I can no matter what you
do. Youre doing the best you can no matter
what I do.Nash EquilibriumIm doing the best I can given what you are
doing. Youre doing the best you can given
what I am doing.Dominant strategy is a special case of
Nash equilibrium
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 25
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
Two cereal companies face a market in whichtwo new types of cereal can be successfullyintroduced, provided each type is introduced by
only one firm Product Choice Problem
Market for one producer of crispy cereal
Market for one producer of sweet cereal
Each firm only has the resources to introduce onecereal
Noncooperative
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 26
Product Choice Problem
Crispy Sweet
Crispy
Sweet
Firm 2
-5, -5 10, 10
-5, -510, 10
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 27
Product Choice Problem
Firm 1
Crispy Sweet
Crispy
Sweet
Firm 2
-5, -5 10, 10
-5, -510, 10
If Firm 1 hears Firm2 is introducing a
new sweet cereal, itsbest action is tomake crispy
Bottom left corner isNash equilibrium
What is other NashEquilibrium?
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 28
Beach Location Game
Scenario
Two competitors, Y and C, selling soft drinks
Beach is 200 yards long
Sunbathers are spread evenly along thebeach
Price Y = Price C
Customer will buy from the closest vendor
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 29
Beach Location Game
Where will the competitors locate (i.e.,where is the Nash equilibrium)?
Will want to all locate in center of beach
Similar to groups of gas stations, cardealerships, etc.
Ocean
0 B Beach A 200 yards
C
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 30
The Nash Equilibrium Revisited
Maximin Strategies - ScenarioTwo firms compete selling file encryption
software
They both use the same encryption standard(files encrypted by one software can be readby the other - advantage to consumers)
Firm 1 has a much larger market share than
Firm 2Both are considering investing in a new
encryption standard
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 31
Maximin Strategy
Firm1
Dont invest Invest
Firm 2
0, 0 -10, 10
20, 10-100, 0
Dontinvest
Invest
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 32
Maximin Strategy
Firm 1
Dont invest InvestFirm 2
0, 0 -10, 10
20, 10-100, 0
Dont invest
Invest
ObservationsDominant strategy
Firm 2: Invest
Firm 1 shouldexpect Firm 2 toinvest
Nash equilibrium
Firm 1: invest
Firm 2: Invest
This assumes Firm2 understands thegame and isrational
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 33
Maximin Strategy
Firm 1
Dont invest InvestFirm 2
0, 0 -10, 10
20, 10-100, 0
Dont invest
Invest
Observations IfFirm 2 does not
invest, Firm 1
incurs significantlosses
Firm 1 might playdont invest
Minimize losses
to 10 maximinstrategy
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 34
Maximin Strategy
If both are rational and informedBoth firms invest
Nash equilibrium
If Player 2 is not rational or completelyinformedFirm 1s maximin strategy is to not invest
Firm 2s maximin strategy is to invest
If 1 knows 2 is using a maximin strategy, 1would invest
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 35
Maximin Strategy
If Firm 1 is unsure about what Firm 2 willdo, it can assign probabilities to eachpossible action
Could use a strategy that maximizes itsexpected payoff
Firm 1s strategy depends critically on itsassessment of probabilities for Firm 2
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 36
Prisoners Dilemma
Confess Dont Confess
Confess
Dont
Confess
Prisoner B
-5, -5 -1, -10
-2, -2-10, -1
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 37
Prisoners Dilemma
Prisoner A
Confess Dont Confess
Confess
Dont
Confess
Prisoner B
-5, -5 -1, -10
-2, -2-10, -1
What is the: Dominant strategy
Nash equilibrium
Maximin solution
Dominant strategiesare also maximinstrategies
Both confess is bothNash equilibrium and
maximin solution
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 38
Mixed Strategy
Pure Strategy
Player makes a specific choice or takes aspecific action
Mixed Strategy
Player makes a random choice among twoor more possible actions, based on a set of
chosen probabilities
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 39
Matching Pennies
Heads Tails
Heads
Tails
Player B
1, -1 -1, 1
1, -1-1, 1
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 40
Matching Pennies
Pure strategy: NoNash equilibrium
No combination of
head and tailsleaves both playersbetter off
Mixed strategy:
Random choice is aNash equilibrium
Player A
Heads Tails
Heads
Tails
Player B
1, -1 -1, 1
1, -1-1, 1
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 41
Matching Pennies
Player A might flip coin playing headswith probability and tails with probability
If both players follow this strategy, thereis a Nash equilibrium both players willbe doing the best they can given whattheir opponent is doing
Although the outcome is random, theexpected payoff is 0 for each player
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 42
Mixed Strategy
One reason to consider mixed strategiesis when there is a game that does nothave any Nash equilibriums in pure
strategyWhen allowing for mixed strategies,
every game has a Nash equilibrium
Mixed strategies are popular for gameslike poker
A firm might not find it reasonable
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 43
The Battle of the Sexes
J im
Wrestling Opera
Wrestling
Opera
Joan
2,1 0,0
1,20,0
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 44
The Battle of the Sexes
Pure Strategy
Both watch wrestling
Both watch opera
Mixed StrategyJim chooses
wrestling
Joan chooses
wrestling
J im
Wrestling Opera
Wrestling
Opera
Joan
2,1 0,0
1,20,0
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 45
Repeated Games
Game in which actions are taken andpayoffs are received over and over again
Oligopolistic firms play a repeated game
With each repetition of the PrisonersDilemma, firms can develop reputationsabout their behavior and study the
behavior of their competitors
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 46
Pricing Problem
Firm 1
Low Price High Price
Low Price
High Price
Firm 2
10, 10 100, -50
50, 50-50, 100
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 47
Pricing Problem
How does a firm find a strategy thatwould work best on average against all oralmost all other strategies?
Tit-for-tat strategy
Repeated game strategy in which a playerresponds in kind to an opponents previous
play, cooperating with cooperative opponentsand retaliating against uncooperative ones
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 48
Tit-for-Tat Strategy
What if the game is infinitely repeated?
Competitors repeatedly set price everymonth, forever
Tit-for-tat strategy is rational
If competitor charges low price and undercutsfirm
Will get high profits that month but know I will
lower price next month Both of us will get lower profits if keep
undercutting, so not rational to undercut
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 49
Tit-for-Tat Strategy
What if repeated a finite number of times?
If both firms are rational, they will charge high pricesuntil the last month
After the last month, there is no retaliation possibleBut in the month before last month, knowing that will
charge low price in last month, will charge low price inmonth before
Keep going and see that only rational outcome is for
both firms to charge low price every month
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 50
Tit-for-Tat Strategy
If firms dont believe their competitors arerational or think perhaps they arent,cooperative behavior is a good strategy
Most managers dont know how long theywill be competing with their rivals
In a repeated game, prisoners dilemma
can have cooperative outcome
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 51
Repeated Games
Conclusion
Cooperation is difficult at best since thesefactors may change in the long run
Need a small number of firms
Need stable demand and cost conditions
This could lead to price wars if dont have them
Oli li ti C ti
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 52
Oligopolistic Cooperation
in the Water Meter Industry
Characteristics of the Market
Four producers of water meters
Rockwell International
Badger Meter
Neptune Water Meter Company
Hersey Products
Rockwell has about 35% of market share
Badger, Neptune, and Hersey combined haveabout a 50 to 55% share
Oli li ti C ti
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 53
Oligopolistic Cooperation
in the Water Meter Industry
Most buyers are municipal water utilities
Very inelastic demandNot a significant part of the budget for
providing waterDemand is stableDemand grows steadily with population
Utilities have long-standing relationshipswith suppliersReluctant to switch
Oli li ti C ti
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 54
Oligopolistic Cooperation
in the Water Meter Industry
Significant economies of scale
Both long term relationship andeconomies of scale represent barriers to
entryHard for new firms to enter market
If firms were to cooperate, could earnsignificant monopoly profits
If compete aggressively to gain marketshare, profits will fall to competitive levels
Oli li ti C ti
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 55
Oligopolistic Cooperation
in the Water Meter Industry
This is a Prisoners Dilemma whatshould the firms do?
Lower price to a competitive level
Cooperate
Companies have been playing repeatedgame for decades
Cooperation has prevailed given marketcharacteristics
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 56
Sequential Games
Players move in turn, responding to eachothers actions and reactions
Ex: Stackelberg model (ch. 12)
Responding to a competitors ad campaign
Entry decisions
Responding to regulatory policy
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 57
Sequential Games
Going back to the product choiceproblem
Two new (sweet, crispy) cereals
Successful only if each firm produces onecereal
Sweet will sell better
Both still profitable with only one producer
M difi d P d t Ch i
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 58
Modified Product Choice
Problem
If firms both announce their decisionsindependently and simultaneously, theywill both pick sweet cereal and both will
lose money
What if Firm 1 sped up production andintroduced new cereal first?
Now there is a sequential gameFirm 1 will think about what Firm 2 will do
M difi d P d t Ch i
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 59
Modified Product Choice
Problem
Crispy Sweet
Crispy
Sweet
Firm 2
-5, -5 10, 20
-5, -520, 10
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 60
Extensive Form of a Game
Extensive Form of a Game
Representation of possible moves in agame in the form of a decision tree
Allows one to work backward from the bestoutcome for Firm 1
Prod ct Choice Game in
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 61
Product Choice Game in
Extensive Form
Crispy
Sweet
Crispy
Sweet
-5, -5
10, 20
20, 10
-5, -5
Firm 1
Crispy
Sweet
Firm 2
Firm 2
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 62
Sequential Games
The Advantage of Moving First
In this product-choice game, there is a clearadvantage to moving first
The first firm can choose a large level ofoutput, thereby forcing second firm to choosea small level
Can show the firms mover advantage by
revising the Stackelberg model andcomparing to Cournot
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 63
First Mover Advantage
Assume: Duopoly
Firmand
ProductionTotal
/1001010:
0
30
21
21
PQQCournot
MC
QQQ
QP
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 64
First Mover Advantage
Duopoly
25.5650.112
50.7and5.715
rg)(StackelbeFirstMovesFirm
Firm/50.11215and5.7
CollusionWith
21
21
21
PQQ
PQQ
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 65
Choosing Output
Firm1
7.5
Firm 2
112.50, 112.50 56.25, 112.50
0, 0112.50, 56.25
125, 93.75 50, 75
93.75, 125
75, 50
100, 100
10 15
7.5
10
15
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 66
Choosing Output
This payoff matrixillustrates variousoutcomes
Move together, bothproduce 10
If Firm 1 moves first(Q=15), best Firm 2
can do is 7.5
Firm 1
7.5
Firm 2
112.50, 112.50 56.25, 112.50
0, 0112.50, 56.25
125, 93.75 50, 75
93.75, 125
75, 50
100, 100
10 15
7.5
10
15
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 67
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
Strategic Moves
What actions can a firm take to gainadvantage in the marketplace?
Deter entry Induce competitors to reduce output, leave,
raise price
Implicit agreements that benefit one firm
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 68
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
Strategic Move
Action that gives a player an advantage byconstraining his behavior
Firm 1 must constrain his behavior to theextent Firm 2 is convinced that he iscommitted
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 69
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
How to Make the First MoveDemonstrate Commitment
Firm 1 must do more than announce they will
produce sweet cereal Invest in expensive advertising campaign
Buy large order of sugar and send invoice toFirm 2
Commitment must be enough to induce Firm2 to make the decision Firm 1 wants it tomake
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 70
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
Empty Threats
If a firm will be worse off if it charges a lowprice, the threat of a low price is not credible
in the eyes of the competitorsWhen firms know the payoffs of each others
actions, firms cannot make threats the otherfirm knows they will not follow
In our example, Firm 1 will always chargehigh price and Firm 2 knows it
Pricing of Computers and Word
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 71
Pricing of Computers and Word
Processors
Firm 1
High Price Low Price
High Price
Low Price
Firm 2
100, 80 80, 100
10, 2020, 0
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 72
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
Sometimes firms can make crediblethreats
Scenario
Race Car Motors, Inc. (RCM) produces cars
Far Out Engines (FOE) produces specialtycar engines and sells most of them to RCM
Sequential game with RCM as the leaderFOE has no power to threaten to build big
engines since RCM controls output
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 73
Production Choice Problem
Far Out Engines
Small cars Big cars
Small
engines
Bigengines
Race Car Moto rs
3, 6 3, 0
8, 31, 1
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 74
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
RCM does best by producing small cars
Knows that Far Out will then producesmall engines
Far Out prefers to make big engines
Can Far Out induce Race Car to producebig cars instead?
Threats Commitments and
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 75
Threats, Commitments, and
Credibility
Suppose Far Out threatens to producebig engines no matter what RCM does?
Not credible since once RCM announces
they are producing small cars, FOE will nothave incentive to carry out threat
Can make threat credible by altering pay offmatrix by constraining its own choices
Shutting down or destroying some small engineproduction capacity
Modified Production Choice
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 76
Modified Production Choice
Problem
0, 6 0, 0
8, 31, 1
Far Ou t Engin es
Small cars Big cars
Small
engines
Big
engines
Race Car Motor s
Modified Production Choice
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 77
Modified Production Choice
Problem
Strategic commitments can be effectivebut not without risk
Rely heavily on accurate knowledge of payoff
matrix and industryMay have competitors out there that they
dont know about and lose sales
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 78
Role of Reputation
If Far Out gets the reputation of beingirrationalThey threaten to produce large engines no
matter what Race Car does Threat might be credible because
irrational people dont always make profitmaximizing decisions
A party thought to be crazy can lead to asignificant advantage
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 79
Bargaining Strategy
Bargaining situation can depend onability to affect relative bargainingposition
Consider two firms introducing one of twocomplementary goods:
Firm 1 has cost advantage in Good A
Firm 2 has cost advantage in Good B
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 80
Bargaining Strategy
Firm 1
Produce A Produce B
Produce A
Produce B
Firm 2
40, 5 50, 50
5, 4560, 40
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 81
Bargaining Strategy
With collusion:
Firm 1 Produces Aand Firm 2 producesB (50,50)
Without collusion:
Firm 1 produces Aand Firm 2 producesB (50,50)
Nash equilibrium
Firm 1
Produce A Produce B
Produce A
Produce B
Firm 2
40, 5 50, 50
5, 4560, 40
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 82
Bargaining Strategy
Suppose each firm is also bargaining onthe decision to join in a researchconsortium with a third firm
Dominant strategy is for both firms toenter consortium
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 83
Bargaining Strategy
Firm 1
Work alone Enter consortium
Work alone
Enterconsortium
Firm 2
10, 10 10, 20
40, 4020, 10
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 84
Bargaining Strategy
Linking the Bargaining Problem
Firm 1 announces it will join the consortiumonly if Firm 2 agrees to produce A and Firm 1
will produce BFirm 2s best interest is to produce A with
Firm 1 producing B
Firm 1s profit increases from 50 to 60
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 85
Bargaining Strategy
Strategic moves can be used inbargaining
Combining issues in bargaining can
benefit one side at others expense
Wal-Mart Stores Preemptive
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 86
Wal Mart Stores Preemptive
Investment Strategy
How did Wal-Mart become the largestretailer in the U.S. when manyestablished retail chains were closing
their doors?Gained monopoly power by opening in small
towns with no threat of other discountcompetition
Preemptive game with Nash equilibrium
The Discount Store Preemption
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 87
The Discount Store Preemption
Game
Wal-Mart
Enter Dont enter
Enter
Dont enter
Company X
-10, -10 20, 0
0, 00, 20
The Discount Store Preemption
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 88
The Discount Store Preemption
Game
Two Nash equilibrium
Low left
Upper right
Must be preemptiveto win
Wal-Mart
Enter Dont enter
Enter
Dont enter
Company X
-10, -10 20, 0
0, 00, 20
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 89
Entry Deterrence
Barriers to entry important for monopolypower
Economies of scale, patents and licenses,
access to critical inputsFirms can also deter entry
To deter entry, the incumbent firm must
convince any potential competitor thatentry will be unprofitable
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 90
Entry Possibilities
Incum bent (I)
Enter Stay out
High price(accommodation)
Low Price(warfare)
Potent ial Ent rant (X)($80 fixed cos ts)
100, 20 200, 0
130, 070, -10
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 91
Entry Deterrence
Scenario
If X does not enter, I makes a profit of $200million
If X enters and charges a high price, I earnsa profit of $100 million and X earns $20million
If X enters and charges a low price, I earns a
profit of $70 million and X earns $-10 million
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 92
Entry Deterrence
Could threaten X with warfare if entersmarket
Not credible because once X has entered, it
is in your best interest to accommodate andmaintain high price
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 93
Entry Deterrence
What if firm I makes an investment beforeentry to increase capacity?
Irrevocable commitment
Gives new payoff matrix since profits willbe reduced by investment
Threat is completely credible
Rational for Firm X to stay out of market
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 94
Entry Deterrence
Inc umbent (I)
Enter Stay out
High price(accommodation)
Low price(warfare)
Potent ial Entr ant (X)
50, 20 150, 0
130, 070, -10
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 95
Entry Deterrence
If incumbent has reputation of pricecutting competitors even at loss, thenthreat will be credible
Short run losses may be offset by longrun gains as monopolist
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 96
Entry Deterrence
Production of commercial airlines exhibitsignificant economies of scale
Airbus and Boeing considering new
aircraft
Suppose it is not economical for bothfirms to produce the new aircraft
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 97
Development of a New Aircraft
Boeing
Produce Dont produceAirbus
-10, -10 100, 0
0, 00, 120
Produce
Dont produce
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 98
Development of a New Aircraft
Boeing has headstart
Boeing will produce
Airbus will notproduce
Boeing
Produce Dont produce
Airbus
-10, -10 100, 0
0, 00, 120
Produce
Dont produce
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 99
Development of a New Aircraft
Governments can change outcome ofgame
European government agrees to
subsidize Airbus before Boeing decidesto produce
With Airbus being subsidized, the payoff
matrix for the two firms would differsignificantly
Development of an Aircraft
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 100
After European Subsidy
Boeing
Produce Dont produceAirbus
-10, 10 100, 0
0, 00, 120
Produce
Dont produce
Development of an Aircraft
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 101
Boeing
Produce Dont produce
Airbus
-10, 10 100, 0
0, 00, 120
Produce
Dont produce
After European Subsidy
Airbus will produce
Boeing will notproduce
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 102
Diaper Wars
Even though there are only two majorfirms, competition is intense
The competition occurs mostly in the
form of cost-reducing innovation
Small cost savings can lead to capturingof market share
Both firms spend significantly on R&D
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 103
Competing Through R & D
P&G
R&D No R&D
R&D
No R&D
Kimberly-Clark
40, 20 80, -20
60, 40-20, 60
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 104
Competing Through R & D
Both spend on R&D
Dominant strategy
Why not cooperate?
StrengtheningBargaining Power
Credibility
Reducing flexibilityP&G
R&D No R&D
R&D
No R&D
Kimberly-Clark
40, 20 80, -20
60, 40-20, 60
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 105
Auctions
Markets in which products are bought andsold through formal bidding processes
Encourages competition that increases
sellers revenueLow cost of transactions
Useful for unique items or those withfluctuating value
Tokyo fish market
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 106
Auction Formats
1. Traditional English (oral)
Seller actively solicits progressively higherbids from a group of potential buyers
Buyers are always aware of highest bid Stops when no one passes highest bid
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 107
Auction Formats
2. Dutch auction
Seller begins by offering item at relativelyhigh price, then reduces it by fixed amounts
until item is sold First buyer accepting offered price can buy
item at that price
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 108
Auction Formats
3. Sealed-bid
All bids are made simultaneously in sealedenvelopes, where winning bid is the one
who submitted highest bidA. First price
Sales price equals highest bid
B. Second price
Sales price equals second highest bid
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 109
Valuation and Information
How to choose an auction format
1. Private-value auction bidder knowsindividual valuations of object, but
valuations differ from bidder to bidder Signed baseball
2. Common-value auction: bidders uncertainwhat the value is
Offshore oil reserve
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 110
Price-Value Auctions
Each bidder must choose biddingstrategy
Payoff for winning is reservation price
minus price paid
Payoff for losing is zero
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 111
Private Value Auction
English oral auction and secondpricesealed bid auctions
Bidding truthfully is dominant strategy
Pay based on value of second highest bidderso no incentive not to bid reservation price
Risk to bidding higher than reservation price
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 112
Private Value Auctions
English auction
Continue bidding until second person isunwilling to make bid
Sealed-bid auctionWinning bid approximately equal to the
second highest bidders reservation price
Both yield the same revenue
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 113
Common Value Auctions
Winners Curse
The winner is worse off because theyoverestimated the value of the item and
thereby overbidMust reduce bid by amount equal to the
expected error of the winning bidder
If a lot of variation in other bidders, then
estimates are fairly imprecise
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 114
Maximizing Auction Revenue
1. Private Value Auction
Encourages many bidders to increaseexpected bid of winner
2. Common Value Auction Uses open rather than sealed bid
Generates greater revenue
Reveals information about true value,reducing concern of winners curse
M i i i A ti R
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 115
Maximizing Auction Revenue
3. Private value auction
Sets min bid equal to or higher than valueto you of keeping good for future sale
Protects against loss if bidders are unawareof value
Increases size of bids by letting biddersthink item is valuable
No sale could make bidders think item islow quality
Biddi d C ll i
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 116
Bidding and Collusion
Buyers can allow benefit from collusion
Can be done legally through buying groups
Can be done illegally through collusive
agreements that violate antitrust lawsCollusion is not easy because of large
incentive to cheat
Repeated auctions allow for penalizing
participants that break agreement
Biddi d C ll i
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2005 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 13 117
Bidding and Collusion
Examples
1. Collusion among baseball owners tolimit their bidding for free agent players
in the 1980s2. Two of the worlds most successful
auction houses were found guilty of
agreeing to fix prices of commissions Sothebys and Christies
I t t A ti
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Internet Auctions
Popularity of auctions has skyrocketedwith growth of internet
Most popular site is eBay
Dominates online person-person auctionindustry
Subject to large network externalities
Choose auction site with largest number ofpotential bidders
I t t A ti
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Internet Auctions
eBay auctions are somewhat differentfrom types discussed
A few caveats:
No quality control function
Poor seller feedback
Bid manipulation may occur