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Crowd Size2806 46,120.00$
1 2829 46,580.00$2 2855 47,100.00$3 3116 52,320.00$
4 2912 48,240.00$5 2535 40,700.00$6 2823 46,460.00$7 3144
52,880.00$8 3030 50,600.00$9 3055 51,100.00$
10 3051 51,020.00$11 3131 52,620.00$12 2833 46,660.00$13 3008
50,160.00$14 2986 49,720.00$15 2905 48,100.00$16 3385 57,700.00$17
2601 42,020.00$18 2590 41,800.00$19 2792 45,840.00$20 2899
47,980.00$21 2964 49,280.00$22 3008 50,160.00$23 3143 52,860.00$24
2930 48,600.00$
25 3331 56,620.00$49,084.80$ AVERAGE
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Mean S.D.Year 1 100,000.00 10,000.00
Increase Per Year7% $0.50 5% 10%
Year Sales Volume Selling Price Unit Var Cost Fixed Cost1 86,216
10.00$ 3.00$ 200,000.00$2 92,251 10.50$ 3.15$ 220,000.00$3 98,709
11.00$ 3.31$ 242,000.00$
NPV $1,199,478.08 7% Discount Rate
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Year 186,216.23
1 107,795.13 2 103,521.75 3 103,394.60
Total Rev Total Costs Total Profit 4 91,339.84 862,162.28$
458,648.68$ 403,513.59$ 5 82,536.68 968,639.32$ 510,591.80$
458,047.52$ 6 103,244.89
1,085,798.55$ 568,479.88$ 517,318.67$ 7 113,241.59 8 90,875.40 9
89,728.94
10 91,926.26 11 96,836.02 12 117,632.93 13 86,061.39 14
102,612.43 15 106,311.65 16 92,046.60 17 87,672.81 18 107,917.18 19
94,169.54 20 105,600.66 21 101,019.05 22 99,352.06 23 94,667.70 24
92,305.22
25 91,442.50
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NPV1,199,478.08$1,644,013.55$1,555,980.01$1,553,360.61$
1,305,026.81$1,123,677.63$1,550,276.42$1,756,213.22$1,295,459.21$1,271,841.58$1,317,107.33$1,418,250.78$1,846,676.90$1,196,288.28$1,537,247.50$1,613,453.24$1,319,586.44$1,229,484.32$1,646,527.83$1,363,320.10$1,598,806.45$1,504,423.23$1,470,082.40$1,373,582.37$1,324,914.21$
1,307,141.68$1,444,909.68$ AVERAGE
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DAY PriceCurrent Price 53.00$ 0 53.00$
Mean 0.003227$ 1 54.13$S.D. 0.026154$ 2 53.56$
3 52.36$4 58.38$
5 53.45$6 58.85$7 64.83$8 57.74$9 60.27$
10 53.57$11 55.39$12 49.55$13 53.39$14 56.86$15 56.19$16
59.35$17 58.66$18 72.08$19 43.60$20 67.69$21 55.08$22 56.97$23
62.69$24 58.99$25 63.65$
26 48.99$27 64.79$28 65.50$29 54.81$30 55.08$
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
0
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Daily Price Changes
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Outsourcing Decision Model
Data
Manufactured in-houseFixed cost 50,000$
Unit variable cost 125$
Purchased from supplier Unit cost 175.00$
ModelMean Std Dev
Demand volume #NAME? 1500 500
Total manufacturing cost #NAME?Total purchased cost #NAME?
Difference #NAME?
Decision #NAME?
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Mean S.D.Revenue #NAME? 50.00$ 5.00$
Min MaxDefection Rate #NAME? 20% 40%
Frequency 6Margin 40%
Value #NAME?
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Profit Model
Data
Unit Price $40.00Min Most Likely Max
Unit Cost #NAME? 22.00$ 24.00$ 30.00$Mean S.D.
Fixed Cost #NAME? 400,000.00$ 25,000.00$Min Most Likely Max
Demand #NAME? 35,000.00 50,000.00 60,000.00
Model
Unit Price $40.00Quantity Sold #NAME?
Revenue #NAME?
Unit Cost #NAME?Quantity Produced 40000
Variable Cost #NAME?Fixed Cost #NAME?
Profit #NAME?182,221.00$ Mean (approximately)
77,072.00$ S.D.
1000 n
186,997.97$ 95% CI Upper Limit177,444.03$ 95% CI Lower Limit
Most sensitive to Unit Cost
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Moore Pharmaceuticals
Data
Market size #NAME?Unit (monthly Rx) revenue 130.00$
Unit (monthly Rx) cost 40.00$Discount rate 9%
Project CostsR&D #NAME?
Clinical Trials #NAME?Total Project Costs #NAME?
Model
Year 1 2 3 4Market growth factor 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Market size #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?Market share growth rate
20.00% 20.00% 20.00%
Market share #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?Sales #NAME? #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME?
Annual Revenue #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?Annual Costs #NAME?
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Profit #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Cumulative Net Profit #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Net Present Value #NAME?
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Newsvendor Model
DataSelling Price 18.00$
Cost 12.00$
Discount Price 9.00$
ModelDemand #NAME?
Purchase Qty 50
Qty Sold #NAME?Surplus Qty #NAME?
PROFIT #NAME?
Order Qty = 40
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Order Qty = 45
Order Qty = 50
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Number of copies 12 purchased RESULTS FOR ORDER
Purchase Cost 2.25$Sales Price 5.00$
Demand #NAME?
Number Sold #NAME?Number Left Over #NAME?
Total Cost 27.00$Total Revenue #NAME?
Total Profit #NAME?
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TY = 12
