CGCM 3.1 Current climatic range 1971-2000 A2 scenario …pcomeau/mixedwoods2012/Presentations... · Outline Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen

What of climate change for the boreal

mixedwoods of Canada?

David Price and Dan McKenney

Boreal Mixedwood Conference, Edmonton: 19 June 2012

A2 scenario 2071-2100 Current climatic range 1971-2000

CGCM 3.1

What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?

Acknowledgements Slide 2

Kathy Campbell

Marty Siltanen

Pia Papadopol

Kevin Lawrence

John Pedlar (all the above are with CFS-GLFC)

Mike Hutchinson (Australian National University, Canberra)

Linda Joyce (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO)

Dave Coulson (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO)

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and

Analysis (CCCMA)

US National Center for Atmospheric

Research (NCAR)

G. Strand (UCAR)

Australia: Commonwealth Scientific and

Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

M. Collier, M. Dix, and T. Hirst

(CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric

Research Division)

Japan: Center for Climate System Research,

University of Tokyo, National Institute for

Environmental Studies, Frontier Research

Center for Global Change

Many reviewers in Canada and the USA of

two reports published in 2011.


Outline

Causes of climate change and reasons

why we cannot be sure what will happen

Climate scenarios for Canada

Impacts of climate change on Canada’s

boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)

Modelling range shifts of key boreal

mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 3


Outline







mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 4


Why is climate change Uncertain? Slide 5

“Human feedbacks”

Natural feedbacks

Adapted from NRTEE (2011), originally from Menne and Ebi (2006).


Outline







mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 6


Selected GCM Scenarios

Projection data generated by GCMs from CCCma (Canada), CSIRO

(Australia), NCAR (USA) and NIES (Japan). [Data also available

from IPCC 3rd Assessment (TAR, 2001) (CCCma, CSIRO, Hadley

Centre (UK) and NCAR.]

SRES A2: increasing population, little technological change, greater

deforestation, pollution and CO2 emissions

SRES B1: as A2, but rapid global shift towards resource-efficient technologies

and reduced GHG emissions

SRES B2: as B1, but more local efforts to increase resource efficiency and

reduce emissions

SRES A1B: higher population growth than A2, with balance of energy from fossil

and renewable sources

Monthly time series extending from 1961 to 2100, gridded to 5

arcminute (1/12 degree lat/lon) resolution – about 10 km.

20 data sets in total. Lots of ways to use these data!

Nakićenović et al. 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.

Slide 7


Slide 8

Correcting for GCM “bias”

Step 1: Determine mean of

observations for reference period.

Step 2: Determine mean of GCM

projection for reference period.

Step 3: Calculate delta values by

subtracting (or dividing by) the

GCM mean from Step 2

Step 4: Calculate corrected GCM

data by adding (or multiplying

by) the observed mean from Step 1


Changes in annual means

(SRES A2, 2080s)

Slide 9

Temperature Increase (°C) Precipitation Change (ratio)

CGCM3.1 - Canada

CSIRO Mk 3.5 - Australia

MIROC3.2 - Japan

NCAR CCSM3 - USA


Analysis by Canadian ecozones Slide 10


Canadian mixedwood ecozones Slide 11


Slide 12 Annual Mean Daily Tmin

Prairies subhumid ecozone (Parkland)

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

(Historical data

~45 years)


Slide 13 Fall (SON) Total Precipitation

Mixedwood Plains ecozone

To

tal P

recip

itati

on

(m

m)


Slide 14 Winter (DJF) Mean Daily Solar Radiation

Boreal Shield West ecozone

10-year moving averages

Irra

dia

nce (

MJ m

-2 d

ay

-1)


Which GCM scenarios are best for

regional analysis? It depends….

Slide 15

2050s

2090s


Boreal Shield E

Annual Mean Daily Tmin (°C)

Projected climate for the Boreal

Plains Ecozone—1960 to 2100

Slide 16

Annual Precipitation (mm)

Historical data are 10-year moving averages, spatially averaged for ecozone from

10 km interpolated data. Future projections are 10-year moving averages of four

GCMs, forced by one IPCC SRES GHG emissions scenario. Ranges are ±1 S.D.


Outline







mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 17


Climate zones shift northward (~10x rate of natural colonization)

Maladaptation of species/genotypes that remain in situ

Increased CO2 may stimulate faster growth, due to synergistic effects

of temperature increase on physiology and soil organic matter

decomposition

Natural disturbances (fire, insect outbreaks) likely to become more

severe (with regional variations); possibilities for interactions

Forest disease organisms and their potential responses are largely

unknown

Increased drought, particularly in south and west (Ted Hogg)

Degradation of permafrost on a potentially huge scale (with significant

likelihood of further large-scale GHG releases)

Potential for ecosystem “tipping points” to be reached and exceeded

Slide 18 Effects of climate change

on Canadian boreal forests


Outline







mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 19


Species climate envelope (CE)

modelling (McKenney et al. 2007)

Most species distributions characterized by several thousand “occurrence locations” within the published range

CEs based on temperature and precipitation regimes

“Climate profile” generated at each species occurrence location (based on 6 climate variates)

Maximum and minimum values of each climate variable determine “full climate” CEs (brown); 5% to 95% percentiles used to generate “core” CEs (green).

Slide 20


Current climatic range 1971-2000

CGCM31 B1 2041-2070

Little’s Range

CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100

Projected shifts in climate zones:

Populus tremuloides

Slide 21



Betula papyrifera

Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range

CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100

Slide 22



Picea glauca



Slide 23



Picea mariana



Slide 24



Abies balsamea



Slide 25



Pinus banksiana



Slide 26


Outline







mixedwood species

Concluding remarks

Slide 27


Conclusions - 1

We can be certain that climate change will

have some major impacts on the boreal

mixedwood region of Canada

We are less certain about the timing and

spatial distribution of these impacts

Some effects are likely already in progress (but we lack some long-term monitoring capacity to be

sure)…..

Slide 28


Conclusions - 2

Optimal climate zones for most BMW

species will shift northwards, causing

management challenges, particularly in the

south; significant shifts are very likely

within 30-40 yr. N.B. These are not projections of where species will be

(slow colonization, poor soils, geographic barriers, etc.)

Uncertainty should not deter managers

from making decisions today which take

climate change into account! (Some options, such as assisted migration, are now

being investigated seriously in some Provinces.)

Slide 29


Further reading…. Slide 30

http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=32971

http://www.ccfm.org/pdf/TreeSpecies_web_e.pdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02413.x/full

http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=32971

http://www.ccfm.org/pdf/TreeSpecies_web_e.pdf






Populus balsamifera



Slide 31

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CGCM 3.1 Current climatic range 1971-2000 A2 scenario …pcomeau/mixedwoods2012/Presentations... · Outline Causes of climate change and reasons why we cannot be sure what will happen