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What of climate change for the boreal
mixedwoods of Canada?
David Price and Dan McKenney
Boreal Mixedwood Conference, Edmonton: 19 June 2012
A2 scenario 2071-2100 Current climatic range 1971-2000
CGCM 3.1
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Acknowledgements Slide 2
Kathy Campbell
Marty Siltanen
Pia Papadopol
Kevin Lawrence
John Pedlar (all the above are with CFS-GLFC)
Mike Hutchinson (Australian National University, Canberra)
Linda Joyce (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO)
Dave Coulson (USDA Forest Service, Ft Collins CO)
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis (CCCMA)
US National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR)
G. Strand (UCAR)
Australia: Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
M. Collier, M. Dix, and T. Hirst
(CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research Division)
Japan: Center for Climate System Research,
University of Tokyo, National Institute for
Environmental Studies, Frontier Research
Center for Global Change
Many reviewers in Canada and the USA of
two reports published in 2011.
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 3
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 4
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Why is climate change Uncertain? Slide 5
“Human feedbacks”
Natural feedbacks
Adapted from NRTEE (2011), originally from Menne and Ebi (2006).
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 6
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Selected GCM Scenarios
Projection data generated by GCMs from CCCma (Canada), CSIRO
(Australia), NCAR (USA) and NIES (Japan). [Data also available
from IPCC 3rd Assessment (TAR, 2001) (CCCma, CSIRO, Hadley
Centre (UK) and NCAR.]
SRES A2: increasing population, little technological change, greater
deforestation, pollution and CO2 emissions
SRES B1: as A2, but rapid global shift towards resource-efficient technologies
and reduced GHG emissions
SRES B2: as B1, but more local efforts to increase resource efficiency and
reduce emissions
SRES A1B: higher population growth than A2, with balance of energy from fossil
and renewable sources
Monthly time series extending from 1961 to 2100, gridded to 5
arcminute (1/12 degree lat/lon) resolution – about 10 km.
20 data sets in total. Lots of ways to use these data!
Nakićenović et al. 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.
Slide 7
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Slide 8
Correcting for GCM “bias”
Step 1: Determine mean of
observations for reference period.
Step 2: Determine mean of GCM
projection for reference period.
Step 3: Calculate delta values by
subtracting (or dividing by) the
GCM mean from Step 2
Step 4: Calculate corrected GCM
data by adding (or multiplying
by) the observed mean from Step 1
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Changes in annual means
(SRES A2, 2080s)
Slide 9
Temperature Increase (°C) Precipitation Change (ratio)
CGCM3.1 - Canada
CSIRO Mk 3.5 - Australia
MIROC3.2 - Japan
NCAR CCSM3 - USA
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Analysis by Canadian ecozones Slide 10
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Canadian mixedwood ecozones Slide 11
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Slide 12 Annual Mean Daily Tmin
Prairies subhumid ecozone (Parkland)
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
(Historical data
~45 years)
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Slide 13 Fall (SON) Total Precipitation
Mixedwood Plains ecozone
To
tal P
recip
itati
on
(m
m)
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Slide 14 Winter (DJF) Mean Daily Solar Radiation
Boreal Shield West ecozone
10-year moving averages
Irra
dia
nce (
MJ m
-2 d
ay
-1)
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Which GCM scenarios are best for
regional analysis? It depends….
Slide 15
2050s
2090s
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Boreal Shield E
Annual Mean Daily Tmin (°C)
Projected climate for the Boreal
Plains Ecozone—1960 to 2100
Slide 16
Annual Precipitation (mm)
Historical data are 10-year moving averages, spatially averaged for ecozone from
10 km interpolated data. Future projections are 10-year moving averages of four
GCMs, forced by one IPCC SRES GHG emissions scenario. Ranges are ±1 S.D.
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 17
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Climate zones shift northward (~10x rate of natural colonization)
Maladaptation of species/genotypes that remain in situ
Increased CO2 may stimulate faster growth, due to synergistic effects
of temperature increase on physiology and soil organic matter
decomposition
Natural disturbances (fire, insect outbreaks) likely to become more
severe (with regional variations); possibilities for interactions
Forest disease organisms and their potential responses are largely
unknown
Increased drought, particularly in south and west (Ted Hogg)
Degradation of permafrost on a potentially huge scale (with significant
likelihood of further large-scale GHG releases)
Potential for ecosystem “tipping points” to be reached and exceeded
Slide 18 Effects of climate change
on Canadian boreal forests
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 19
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Species climate envelope (CE)
modelling (McKenney et al. 2007)
Most species distributions characterized by several thousand “occurrence locations” within the published range
CEs based on temperature and precipitation regimes
“Climate profile” generated at each species occurrence location (based on 6 climate variates)
Maximum and minimum values of each climate variable determine “full climate” CEs (brown); 5% to 95% percentiles used to generate “core” CEs (green).
Slide 20
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Current climatic range 1971-2000
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070
Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Populus tremuloides
Slide 21
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Betula papyrifera
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 22
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Picea glauca
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 23
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Picea mariana
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 24
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Abies balsamea
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 25
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Pinus banksiana
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 26
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Outline
Causes of climate change and reasons
why we cannot be sure what will happen
Climate scenarios for Canada
Impacts of climate change on Canada’s
boreal (what’s more-or-less certain?)
Modelling range shifts of key boreal
mixedwood species
Concluding remarks
Slide 27
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Conclusions - 1
We can be certain that climate change will
have some major impacts on the boreal
mixedwood region of Canada
We are less certain about the timing and
spatial distribution of these impacts
Some effects are likely already in progress (but we lack some long-term monitoring capacity to be
sure)…..
Slide 28
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Conclusions - 2
Optimal climate zones for most BMW
species will shift northwards, causing
management challenges, particularly in the
south; significant shifts are very likely
within 30-40 yr. N.B. These are not projections of where species will be
(slow colonization, poor soils, geographic barriers, etc.)
Uncertainty should not deter managers
from making decisions today which take
climate change into account! (Some options, such as assisted migration, are now
being investigated seriously in some Provinces.)
Slide 29
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Further reading…. Slide 30
http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=32971
http://www.ccfm.org/pdf/TreeSpecies_web_e.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02413.x/full
What of climate change for Canada’s boreal mixedwoods?
Projected shifts in climate zones:
Populus balsamifera
Current climatic range 1971-2000 Little’s Range
CGCM31 B1 2041-2070 CGCM31 B1 2071-2100 CGCM31 A2 2071-2100
Slide 31