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CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO

CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

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Page 1: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

CFO Update

Fredrik Nilsson, CFO

Page 2: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

2 The Co-Development Company

Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2014

Strengthen growth through:

Organic growth Customer co-development New markets

Selective acquisitions Capital efficiency

Working capital management

Page 3: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

3 The Co-Development Company

AAK’s Performance from January 2010 a history of success

Market capitalization multiplied by

3.2x

Operating profit improvement*

+10%

* Average January 2010 – December 2015 (analyst consensus, 8 November 2015)

Dividend increase*

~ +9%

EPS improvement*

+15%

Page 4: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

4 The Co-Development Company

Q1-3 2015

Q1-3 2014 Change %

Income statementVolumes ('000 MT) 1 342 1 241 101 +8%Sales 14 848 12 958 1 890 +15%Operating profit* 1 023 899 124 +14%Operating profit per kilo* 0,76 0,72 0,04 +5%Earnings per share 16,52 14,03 2,49 +18%

Financial positionEquity ratio 50% 42% 8% -Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%Net interest-bearing debt 2 035 2 886 -851 -29%Net debt / EBITDA 1,12 1,79 -0,67 -37%

Cash flowCash flow from operating activities 1 075 197 878 +446%Cash flow from investing activities -467 -661 194 -29%Free cash flow 608 -464 1 072 -

Key financial disclosures

* Excl non-recurring items

Page 5: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

5 The Co-Development Company

Continuous y/y improvements YTD Q3 Q2 Q1

Volume (’000 MT)

Reported +8% +2% +12% +11%

Organic +4% +3% +4% +3%

Operating profit (SEK million)

Reported +14% +14% +16% +12%

Fixed FX and comp. units +4% +7% +4% +1%

EPS (SEK) +18% +12% +30% +12%

Page 6: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

6 The Co-Development Company

Net debt has decreased due to strong operating cash flow SE

K m

illion

2 035

1 439 69

85 199

467

284

2 508

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Net debt12/2014

EBITDA pluschange in

working capital

Paid interest Paid tax Capex net Dividend Other items Net debt9/2015

Page 7: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

7 The Co-Development Company

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

17,5%

20,0%

22,5%

25,0%

27,5%

30,0%

Q12011

Q22011

Q32011

Q42011

Q12012

Q22012

Q32012

Q42012

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

Q22014

Q32014

Q42014

Q12015

Q22015

Q32015

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

WC days (rolling 3 months) WC in % of sales

Working capital days* – rolling 3 months

28 days in improvement or

SEK 1,200 million

* Inventory + Accounts receivables - Accounts payables

Page 8: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

The Co-Development Company 8

Raw material prices

10 percent change in all raw material prices will effect working capital by +/- SEK 250 million Time lag of six to nine months

Page 9: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

9 The Co-Development Company

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Rolling 12 months Quarter

Quarter

Q3 2015

Q4 2014

EBIT (R12M) 1,395 1,262

Fixed assets 5,596 5,428

Working capital 3,310 3,301

ROCE 15.7 14.5

ROCE

Page 10: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

10 The Co-Development Company

Strong financial foundation supports strategy execution

Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Sep 201520%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Equity ratio

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

Q1

10Q

2 10

Q3

10Q

4 10

Q1

11Q

2 11

Q3

11Q

4 11

Q1

12Q

2 12

Q3

12Q

4 12

Q1

13Q

2 13

Q3

13Q

4 13

Q1

14Q

2 14

Q3

14Q

4 14

Q1

15Q

2 15

Q3

15

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA

Equity ratio Net Debt and Net Debt/EBITDA

SE

K m

illio

n

Page 11: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

11 The Co-Development Company

Structure of loans and borrowings Net debt end of September SEK 2,035 million

0250500750

1 0001 2501 5001 7502 000

Uncommitted 2018 2019 2020 >2020

Maturity profile of interest-bearing debt (SEK million)

SE

K m

illio

n

Average maturity of long-term loans is 4.6 years

Main financing sources EUR 400 million club loan

Maturing in H1/2020 + 1Y SEK 1 400 million multi currency facility

Maturing in H1/2018 + 1Y

Other facilities SEK 500 million, mortgage loan SEK 350 million, other facilities

Page 12: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

12 The Co-Development Company

Dividend policy Strive to pay stable dividend linked to the long term performance – 30 to 50% of the consolidated profit after tax

SEK

milli

on

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010 2011 2012 2013 201450

100

150

200

250

300

Dividend Dividend/Net profit Annual increased dividend

Page 13: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

13 The Co-Development Company

EPS and DPS evolution

2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

25

EPS DPS

SEK

+11% +14% +13%

Page 14: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

14 The Co-Development Company

Geographical profit generation

Europe

41% Asia/Africa

11% North and

South America

47%

Page 15: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

15 The Co-Development Company

Follow up on the ”Management ambition”* SE

K m

illion

*As expressed at the Capital Market Day November 10, 2010 and at fixed exchange rates ** November 8, 2015, excl. estimated acquisition costs in Q4 2015: SEK 12-15 million

**

Page 16: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

16 The Co-Development Company

Investing for future growth

SE

K m

illio

n

Page 17: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

17 The Co-Development Company

Possible volume growth from acquisitions and greenfields

(’000

MT)

Page 18: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

18 The Co-Development Company

Key topics on the CFO’s agenda

Performance management

Strong balance sheet

Organic volume growth

EBIT improvement

Selective acquisitions

Working capital management

CAPEX management

Support and challenge

Evaluate new opportunities

Page 19: CFO Update - AAK€¦ · CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson, CFO . 2 The Co-Development Company ... Financial position Equity ratio 50% 42% 8% - Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%

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