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CFO Update
Fredrik Nilsson
2 The Co-Development Company
Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015
Strengthen growth through:
Organic growth Customer co-development New markets
Selective acquisitions Capital efficiency
Working capital management
3 The Co-Development Company
AAK’s performance from 2010 a history of success – CAGR
Operating profit improvement*
+11%
* CAGR January 2010 – December 2016 (analyst consensus, November 3, 2016)
Dividend increase*
+10%
EPS improvement*
+7%
Volume*
+5%
4 The Co-Development Company
Continuous y/y improvements YTD Q3 Q2 Q1
Volume (’000 MT)
Reported +7% +11% +6% +5%
Organic +1% +4% +1% -0%
Operating profit (SEK million)
Reported +15% +15% +13% +19%
Fixed FX and comp. units +13% +15% +13% +12%
EPS (SEK) +3% -0% +2% +9%
5 The Co-Development Company
Income statement Q1-3 2016
Q1-3 2015 Change %
Volumes ('000 MT) 1 442 1 342 100 +7%Sales 15 731 14 848 883 +6%Operating profit* 1 180 1 023 157 +15%Operating profit per kilo* 0,82 0,76 0,06 +8%Financial net -124 -85 -39 +46%Tax -288 -250 -38 +15%Net result 753 701 52 +7%Earnings per share 17,03 16,52 0,51 +3%
* Excluding non-recurring items and acqusition costs
All-time high operating profit
Increased financial costs due to extended borrowings in high-interest rate countries (Brazil, China and India)
Tax rate of 27.7%, 1.4% higher than last year due to increased earnings in countries with high tax rates
6 The Co-Development Company
Movement vs SEK EBIT impact
USD
MXN
GBP
EUR
BRL
FX exposure
7 The Co-Development Company
Revenue split by country – September YTD
20%
11%
10%
9% 5% 4% 4%
3%
3% 3% 3% 2%
23%
USA UK Mexico Sweden IndiaGermany Turkey Norway Brazil Netherlands
8 The Co-Development Company
Balance sheet
Higher non-current assets due to greenfield investments and acquisitions Working capital has been negatively impacted by the substantial increase in raw material prices and tied up working capital for the greenfield investments
30.09.16 31.12.15 Change %Total non-current assets 7 027 6 388 639 +10%Working capital 4 047 3 087 960 +31%
Inventory 4 533 3 599 934 +26%Accounts receivables 3 055 2 426 629 +26%Accounts payables -2 670 -2 383 -287 +12%Other working capital items -871 -555 -316 +57%
Net debt 3 165 2 083 1 082 +52%Net debt / EBITDA, multiple 1,59 1,13 0,46 +41%Equity to assets ratio, % 44 48 -4 -8%
Higher non-current assets due to greenfield investments and acquisitions Working capital has been negatively impacted by the substantial increase in raw material prices and tied up working capital for the greenfield investments
The Co-Development Company 9
Raw material prices
10 percent change in all raw material prices will effect working capital by +/- SEK 250 million Time lag of six to nine months
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
USD
/ton
Rapeseed oil and palm oilRapeseed oil Palm oil
The Co-Development Company 10
Raw material prices
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
USD
/ton
Rapeseed oil and palm oilRapeseed oil Palm oil
11 The Co-Development Company
Cash flow
Cash flow from working capital was negative, amounting to SEK 467 million (negative 81) The increase in working capital was mainly related to the substantially increased raw material prices during the last quarters, combined with working capital tied up for the two greenfield investments The higher raw material prices and the greenfield investments will continue to have a negative impact on working capital during 2016
Cash outflow from investing activities amounted to SEK 708 million (234). The increased outflow is mainly related to the acquisition of CalOils and the on-going greenfield projects in Brazil and China
SEK million Q3 2016 YTD 2016 Q3 2015 YTD 2015 FY 2015
EBITDA 530 1,505 479 1,351 1,840
Paid interest -49 -121 -28 -85 -114
Paid tax -134 -325 -84 -199 -270
Non-cash items -15 -1 -28 -80 -100
Change in working capital (WC) -467 -689 -81 88 380
Cash flow from operating activities incl. changes in WC -135 369 258 1,075 1,736
Cash flow from investments -708 -1,094 -234 -467 -1,016
Free cash flow -843 -725 24 608 720
12 The Co-Development Company
Working capital cash flow YTD 2016 350 000 MT X 145 USD
689
172
2858
431
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Org vol A/R FX Volume inventory Raw material prices &other
Cash outflow
SE
K m
illio
n
13 The Co-Development Company
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
17,5%
20,0%
22,5%
25,0%
27,5%
30,0%
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
WC days (quarterly average) WC in % of sales
Working capital
14 The Co-Development Company
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Rolling 12 months Quarter
ROCE – third quarter 2016
Quarter Q3 2016
Q4 2015
EBIT (R12M) 1,537* 1,409
Fixed assets 7,027 6,388
Working capital 4,047 3,087
ROCE 13.9* 14.9
* Excl non-recurring costs and acquisition costs, EBIT SEK 1,568 million and ROCE 14.2 percent
15 The Co-Development Company
Solid debt portfolio Maturity profile of interest-bearing debt
Average maturity of long-term loans is 5.0 years
Interest-bearing debt SEK 3,165 million as at September 2016
Average cost of debt 4.5% Main financing sources
EUR 400 million club loan Maturing in H1/2021
SEK 1 400 million multi-currency facility Maturing in H1/2019
Back-up facilities SEK 500 million, mortgage loan SEK 990 million, other facilities
0200400600800
1 0001 2001 4001 6001 800
2016 2019 2021 2032
SEK
milli
on
16 The Co-Development Company
Dividend policy Strive to pay stable dividend linked to the long-term performance – 30 to 50% of the consolidated profit after tax
SEK
milli
on
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dividend Dividend/Net profit Annual increased dividend
17 The Co-Development Company
Follow-up on the ”Management ambition”* SE
K m
illion
*As expressed at the Capital Market Day November 10, 2010 and at fixed exchange rates
1 607210
125
39130 370
603
800
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
EBIT 2010 Currency Acquisitions/Divestments
Inflation Productivity Investments inorganization
Volume andmix
AnalystConsensus
2016
18 The Co-Development Company
Investing for future growth
SE
K m
illio
n
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FC2016 FC20170
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
CAPEX Acquisitions
19 The Co-Development Company
Potential volume growth from acquisitions and greenfields
(’000
MT)
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 100
2 200
2 300
2 400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Existing business Kamani Oils Cal Oils Greenfield Brazil Greenfield China
20 The Co-Development Company
Key priorities on our agenda
Performance management
Strong balance sheet
Organic volume growth
Productivity
EBIT improvement
Selective acquisitions
Working capital management
CAPEX management
Support and challenge
Evaluate new opportunities
21 The Co-Development Company
AAK investment case highlights
1 Above the
market growth
2 Average 10% year-over-year operating profit Improvement*
3 Strong balance
sheet supporting further growth
4 Very strong
underlying growth drivers
Health Costs
Demographics Urbanization
* Excl. acquisitions and at fixed FX
www.aak.com