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CFO Update Fredrik Nilsson

CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

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Page 1: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

CFO Update

Fredrik Nilsson

Page 2: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

2 The Co-Development Company

Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015

Strengthen growth through:

Organic growth Customer co-development New markets

Selective acquisitions Capital efficiency

Working capital management

Page 3: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

3 The Co-Development Company

AAK’s performance from 2010 a history of success – CAGR

Operating profit improvement*

+11%

* CAGR January 2010 – December 2016 (analyst consensus, November 3, 2016)

Dividend increase*

+10%

EPS improvement*

+7%

Volume*

+5%

Page 4: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

4 The Co-Development Company

Continuous y/y improvements YTD Q3 Q2 Q1

Volume (’000 MT)

Reported +7% +11% +6% +5%

Organic +1% +4% +1% -0%

Operating profit (SEK million)

Reported +15% +15% +13% +19%

Fixed FX and comp. units +13% +15% +13% +12%

EPS (SEK) +3% -0% +2% +9%

Page 5: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

5 The Co-Development Company

Income statement Q1-3 2016

Q1-3 2015 Change %

Volumes ('000 MT) 1 442 1 342 100 +7%Sales 15 731 14 848 883 +6%Operating profit* 1 180 1 023 157 +15%Operating profit per kilo* 0,82 0,76 0,06 +8%Financial net -124 -85 -39 +46%Tax -288 -250 -38 +15%Net result 753 701 52 +7%Earnings per share 17,03 16,52 0,51 +3%

* Excluding non-recurring items and acqusition costs

All-time high operating profit

Increased financial costs due to extended borrowings in high-interest rate countries (Brazil, China and India)

Tax rate of 27.7%, 1.4% higher than last year due to increased earnings in countries with high tax rates

Page 6: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

6 The Co-Development Company

Movement vs SEK EBIT impact

USD

MXN

GBP

EUR

BRL

FX exposure

Page 7: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

7 The Co-Development Company

Revenue split by country – September YTD

20%

11%

10%

9% 5% 4% 4%

3%

3% 3% 3% 2%

23%

USA UK Mexico Sweden IndiaGermany Turkey Norway Brazil Netherlands

Page 8: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

8 The Co-Development Company

Balance sheet

Higher non-current assets due to greenfield investments and acquisitions Working capital has been negatively impacted by the substantial increase in raw material prices and tied up working capital for the greenfield investments

30.09.16 31.12.15 Change %Total non-current assets 7 027 6 388 639 +10%Working capital 4 047 3 087 960 +31%

Inventory 4 533 3 599 934 +26%Accounts receivables 3 055 2 426 629 +26%Accounts payables -2 670 -2 383 -287 +12%Other working capital items -871 -555 -316 +57%

Net debt 3 165 2 083 1 082 +52%Net debt / EBITDA, multiple 1,59 1,13 0,46 +41%Equity to assets ratio, % 44 48 -4 -8%

Higher non-current assets due to greenfield investments and acquisitions Working capital has been negatively impacted by the substantial increase in raw material prices and tied up working capital for the greenfield investments

Page 9: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

The Co-Development Company 9

Raw material prices

10 percent change in all raw material prices will effect working capital by +/- SEK 250 million Time lag of six to nine months

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

USD

/ton

Rapeseed oil and palm oilRapeseed oil Palm oil

Page 10: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

The Co-Development Company 10

Raw material prices

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

USD

/ton

Rapeseed oil and palm oilRapeseed oil Palm oil

Page 11: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

11 The Co-Development Company

Cash flow

Cash flow from working capital was negative, amounting to SEK 467 million (negative 81) The increase in working capital was mainly related to the substantially increased raw material prices during the last quarters, combined with working capital tied up for the two greenfield investments The higher raw material prices and the greenfield investments will continue to have a negative impact on working capital during 2016

Cash outflow from investing activities amounted to SEK 708 million (234). The increased outflow is mainly related to the acquisition of CalOils and the on-going greenfield projects in Brazil and China

SEK million Q3 2016 YTD 2016 Q3 2015 YTD 2015 FY 2015

EBITDA 530 1,505 479 1,351 1,840

Paid interest -49 -121 -28 -85 -114

Paid tax -134 -325 -84 -199 -270

Non-cash items -15 -1 -28 -80 -100

Change in working capital (WC) -467 -689 -81 88 380

Cash flow from operating activities incl. changes in WC -135 369 258 1,075 1,736

Cash flow from investments -708 -1,094 -234 -467 -1,016

Free cash flow -843 -725 24 608 720

Page 12: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

12 The Co-Development Company

Working capital cash flow YTD 2016 350 000 MT X 145 USD

689

172

2858

431

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Org vol A/R FX Volume inventory Raw material prices &other

Cash outflow

SE

K m

illio

n

Page 13: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

13 The Co-Development Company

10,0%

12,5%

15,0%

17,5%

20,0%

22,5%

25,0%

27,5%

30,0%

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

WC days (quarterly average) WC in % of sales

Working capital

Page 14: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

14 The Co-Development Company

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Q312

Q412

Q113

Q213

Q313

Q413

Q114

Q214

Q314

Q414

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q116

Q216

Q316

Rolling 12 months Quarter

ROCE – third quarter 2016

Quarter Q3 2016

Q4 2015

EBIT (R12M) 1,537* 1,409

Fixed assets 7,027 6,388

Working capital 4,047 3,087

ROCE 13.9* 14.9

* Excl non-recurring costs and acquisition costs, EBIT SEK 1,568 million and ROCE 14.2 percent

Page 15: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

15 The Co-Development Company

Solid debt portfolio Maturity profile of interest-bearing debt

Average maturity of long-term loans is 5.0 years

Interest-bearing debt SEK 3,165 million as at September 2016

Average cost of debt 4.5% Main financing sources

EUR 400 million club loan Maturing in H1/2021

SEK 1 400 million multi-currency facility Maturing in H1/2019

Back-up facilities SEK 500 million, mortgage loan SEK 990 million, other facilities

0200400600800

1 0001 2001 4001 6001 800

2016 2019 2021 2032

SEK

milli

on

Page 16: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

16 The Co-Development Company

Dividend policy Strive to pay stable dividend linked to the long-term performance – 30 to 50% of the consolidated profit after tax

SEK

milli

on

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201550

100

150

200

250

300

350

Dividend Dividend/Net profit Annual increased dividend

Page 17: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

17 The Co-Development Company

Follow-up on the ”Management ambition”* SE

K m

illion

*As expressed at the Capital Market Day November 10, 2010 and at fixed exchange rates

1 607210

125

39130 370

603

800

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

EBIT 2010 Currency Acquisitions/Divestments

Inflation Productivity Investments inorganization

Volume andmix

AnalystConsensus

2016

Page 18: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

18 The Co-Development Company

Investing for future growth

SE

K m

illio

n

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FC2016 FC20170

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

CAPEX Acquisitions

Page 19: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

19 The Co-Development Company

Potential volume growth from acquisitions and greenfields

(’000

MT)

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

2 200

2 300

2 400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Existing business Kamani Oils Cal Oils Greenfield Brazil Greenfield China

Page 20: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

20 The Co-Development Company

Key priorities on our agenda

Performance management

Strong balance sheet

Organic volume growth

Productivity

EBIT improvement

Selective acquisitions

Working capital management

CAPEX management

Support and challenge

Evaluate new opportunities

Page 21: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

21 The Co-Development Company

AAK investment case highlights

1 Above the

market growth

2 Average 10% year-over-year operating profit Improvement*

3 Strong balance

sheet supporting further growth

4 Very strong

underlying growth drivers

Health Costs

Demographics Urbanization

* Excl. acquisitions and at fixed FX

Page 22: CFO Update - AAK · 2017-08-23 · CFO Update . Fredrik Nilsson . 2 The Co-Development Company . Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2015 . Strengthen growth through:

www.aak.com