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Do We Know the Temperature of Earth? CERES Earth Radiation Budget CALIPSO IR and Earth Observing Yes Average Radiant Space Temperature ~ 254 K Average Surface Temperature ~ 287 K (~14 C) How Well Do We Know the Surface Air Temperature of Earth?

CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

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Page 1: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Do We Know the Temperature of Earth?

CERES Earth Radiation Budget

CALIPSOIR and Earth Observing

Yes

Average Radiant Space Temperature ~ 254 K

Average Surface Temperature ~ 287 K (~14 C)

How Well Do We Know the Surface Air Temperature of Earth?

Page 2: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

How Well Do We Know the Surface Air Temperature of Earth?

Land Surface Temperature Record

Thermometers, Sensors, and Measurement Error

Sea Surface Temperature Record

Ships, Buoys, and Measurement Error

How Well We Know the Surface Air Temperature of Earth.

Page 3: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

The Surface Air Temperature Anomaly Record

Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia and Hadley Centre for Climate, UK February, 2011 data set http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/temp/jonescru/global.txt

Land Surface Air Temperature Record

±0.2 C

±(0.2-0.05) C

Random instrumental errorError Due to Changes in:

•Station Siting•Measurement time•Instrumentation•Instrumental exposure

Urban Heat Islands

Published Sources of Error

P. Brohan, et al. (2006) "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850" J. Geophys,

Res. 111, D12106

But nothing about systematic sensor error

Page 4: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Instrumental Error in the Temperature Record

(including in the recent Berkeley Expert Systems Technologies (BEST) compilation)Instrumental measurement error has never been evaluated

Systematic measurement error

T Min

T Max

T dry bulb T wet bulb

“Liquid in Glass” (LiG) ThermometersBy far the most common surface air temperature measurement instrument used

globally over the entire 20th century

LiG-CRS instrument has never been field-calibrated

Butte County Fire Station #41 near Nord, CA.

Hg thermometers in Stevenson Screens (CRS)

The Ideal

Page 5: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Sensor Shield Calibration Experiment: Univ. of Nebraska, Lincoln

K. Hubbard and X. Lin (2002) Realtime data filtering models for air temperature measurements Geophys. Res. Lett. 29(10), 1425

Systematic Measurement Error

Major Impacts on Accuracy

1.Solar irradiance2.Ground albedo3.Wind speed

• Too low4.Electronic Instruments

• Self-heating• Voltage errors• Response drift

Stevenson ScreenR. M. Young aspirated probe

Standard ReferenceHMP45C platinum resistance thermometer (PRT)

Page 6: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Accuracy in Surface Air Temperature SensorsThe Hubbard and Lin Experiment:

How Effective are Radiation Screens Against the Effects of Sun and Wind?University of Nebraska, Lincoln

Screen-Induced Error Test temperature

minusR. M. Young temperature

Bias = 0.8 Cσ = ±0.3 C

Bias = 0.1 Cσ = ±0.2 C

Bias = 0.4 Cσ = ±0.4 C

Bias = 0.4 Cσ = ±0.2 C

Bias = 0.2 Cσ = ±0.2 C

Bias = 0.3 Cσ = ±0.3C

Data taken: April through August 2000Protocol:

1. Aspirated R. M. Young ref. ~(±0.1 C)

2. Experimental screens; PRT.3. Simultaneous Measurement

Page 7: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Side-by-Side Comparison of LiG/Stevenson and MMTSCarried out to obtain a “transfer function” for when the LiG instrument is replaced by the MMTS.

The “TF” scales current temp. trend to past temp. trend.

Transfer function is not a

calibration

No Published Record

Field calibration of a LiG thermometer in a

Stevenson Screen:

Page 8: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Accuracy in Surface Air Temperature SensorsHow Accurate are LiG thermometers in Stevenson screens?

T LiG = Ttrue +εsysLiG

T MMTS = Ttrue +εsysMMTS

T LiG −T MMTS = [(Ttrue +εsysLiG ) − (Ttrue +εsys

MMTS )]

= [(Ttrue −Ttrue ) + (εsysLiG −εsys

MMTS )

= εsysLiG −εsys

MMTS + εsysMMTS = εsys

LiG

Figure 3. MMTS – LIG temperature differences (Deg F) by month for the period Jan. 2002 through Dec. 2004 for Fort Collins, Colorado.

Parallel measurementsCO State Univ. Ft. Collins

Nolan J. Doeskin (2005) The National Weather Service MMTS (Maximum-Minimum Temperature System) -- 20 years after in 13th Symposium on Meteorological Observations and Instrumentation, Baker, C.B., Ed. (Amer. Meteor. Soc., Savannah, GA)

Page 9: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Accuracy in Surface Air Temperature SensorsHow Accurate are LiG thermometers in Stevenson screens?

LiG minus MMTS (Doesken, 2005) MMTS Systematic Error (Hubbard & Lin, 2002)

+

Systematic Error:LiG Thermometer in a

Stevenson Screen

Mean bias = +0.26 CSys. Error = ±0.39 C=

Mean bias = +0.25 CSys. Error = ±0.31 C

Systematic Error:PRT in a Stevenson

Screen

Page 10: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

The Huwald, et al. ExperimentNon-aspirated R. M. Young Sensor vs. sonic anemometer

Accuracy in Surface Air Temperature Sensors

5 February through 10 April 2007; Plaine Morte Glacier, Switzerland

Bias = 2.0 Cσ = ±1.3 C

Bias = 0.03 Cσ = ±0.3 C

Bias = 0.7 Cσ = ±0.9 C

H. Huwald, C. W. Higgins, M.-O. Boldi, E. Bou-Zeid, M. Lehning, and M. B. Parlange (2009) Albedo effect on radiative errors in air temperature measurements Wat. Resour. Res. 45, W08431

Page 11: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

What About Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs)?World Ocean = ~70% of the Global Surface

= ~70% of Global Temperature In situ SST Measurements

•Prior to ~1970: mostly bucket-dipped thermometers•~1970 to ~1990: mostly ship engine intake thermometers•After ~1990 : floating buoys and ship engine intakes

Charles Franklin Brooks

Prof. Of Meteorology, Harvard University(1931-1958), principal founder and first secretary (1919-1954) of the American Meteorological Society.

SST Calibration ExperimentFebruary-March 1924

RMS Empress of Britain

This 1926 study is the only comprehensive calibration of shipboard bucket SST measurementsever published

Page 12: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Fuess surface thermometer ~1900

Traditional Sea Surface TemperaturesCanvas Bucket

~1880-1970

Wooden Bucket19th century

35°

30°

25°

20°

15°

Canvas Bucket Errors

C.F. BrooksRMS EoB

Caribbean

Lt. Cmdr. E.H. Smith

Int’l Ice Patrol Modoc & Tampa

Grand Banks

Page 13: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Mid-Twentieth Century Sea Surface TemperaturesShip Intakes

Twelve US military ships, 2½ years, 6825 measurements, Eastern and Western Pacific Ocean

(1963) J. Applied Meteorology 2, 417-425

Precision (±0.1 C) insulated bucket

thermometer

Fuess Thermometer

No other comprehensive study of measurement error in ship SSTs

C.F. Brooks RMS EoB 1926Measurement Error: Engine Intake Temperature

n=56

One trip of a Military Sea Transport Ship,June-July 1959

n = 48

All trips, All ships

Avg. bias: 0.33 C; avg. σ=±0.89 C; “without improved quality control, the sea temperature data reported currently and in the past are for the most part adequate only for general climatological studies.”

Page 14: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Annual average standard deviation:

±0.16 C

Buoy separation: < 5 km

Figure 5: Buoy minus buoy SST difference as a function of separation distance (March 1996)

Since 1979: Satellite infrared SST measurements are calibrated to floating buoys

Late-Twentieth Century Sea Surface TemperaturesShip Intake and Buoys

Ship separation: < 5 km

Figure 11: Ship minus ship SST difference as a function of separation distance (March 1996)

Annual average standard deviation:

±0.54 C

Emery, W. J., Baldwin, D. J., Schlossel, P., and Reynolds, R. W. (2001) Accuracy of in situ sea surface temperatures used to calibrate infrared satellite measurements J. Geophys. Res. 106(C2), 2385-2405.

William J. Emery, et al., investigated the temperature difference between paired ships or paired buoys at 0-50 km separation distance

For d < 10 km, SST measurements are considered replicates.

Page 15: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

SST Measurement Methods 1850-2010

E. C. Kent, et al., (2005) “Effects of instrumentation changes on sea surface temperature measured in situ” WIREs Climate Change 1, 718-728

1850 through 1980: ship sea surface temperatures

•1850-1880: wooden buckets

•1880-1940: canvas buckets

•1940-1970: canvas buckets and engine intakes

•1970-1980: engine intakes and canvas buckets

•1980-2010: buoys and engine intakes

Figure 3a: Number of SST observations and measurement methods excluding drifters and buoys

Figure 2b Annual number of SST observations per year by platform type expressed as a fraction of the total.

Ship SST Measurements

Page 16: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Weighted Systematic Measurement Error Algorithm

1850-18990.3×LiG-CRS + 0.7×wooden (canvas) bucket

1900-19390.3×LiG-CRS + 0.7×canvas bucket

1940-19690.3×LiG-CRS+0.7×(0.5×canvas bucket + 0.5×Engine intake)

1970-19790.3×LiG-CRS +0.7×(0.25×canvas bucket + 0.75×Engine intake)

1980-19900.3×LiG-CRS+.7×(0.75×Engine intake +0.25×buoy)

1991-20000.3×(0.75×LiG-CRS +0.25×MMTS)+0.7×(0.25×Engine intake+0.75×buoy)

2001-20110.3×(0.5×LiG-CRS+0.5×MMTS)+0.7×(0.1×Engine intake+0.9×buoy)

Progress in Accuracy

1850-1899: ±0.73 C

1900-1939: ±0.73 C

1940-1969: ±0.65 C

1970-1979: ±0.60 C

1980-1990: ±0.50 C

1991-2000: ±0.36 C

2001-2011: ±0.29 C

Page 17: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Accuracy in the 130-Year Surface Air Temperature Trend131-year anomaly Record

Average Systematic Error (∆C)Official 0.8±0.11Corrected 0.8±0.64

We literally do not know the shape of the true temperature trend line within the limits of the systematic error bounds

Official RecordCorrected Record

These systematic error bars reflect a lower limit of physical uncertainty

Page 18: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

At the End of the Journey

Large systematic physical errors in GCMs make predictions of future Earth climate...

Large systematic measurement errors make claims of an unprecedented increase in surface air temperature since 1850 …

It is clear that:

…entirely unreliable.

Systematic errors have been systematically neglected by the AGW guild of climate scientists

…entirely unreliable

No scientific case establishing a human cause for recent global air temperature change

Page 19: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Acknowledgements

Under the Table Oil Company Slush Funds

None

Pat Frank’$ Deep Pocket$

The whole ball of wax

Thank-you for your kind interest and attention

Funding Agencies

None

Foundational Grants

None

Business Contracts

None

$upportFor Reviewing parts of this work

Prof. David Legates University of Delaware

Dr. David StockwellUniversity of California San Diego

Prof. Demetris KoutsoyiannisNational Technical University of Athens

Page 20: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Bias = 2.0 Cσ = ±1.3 C

Bias = 0.03 Cσ = ±0.3 C

Bias = 0.7 Cσ = ±0.9 C

5 February through 10 April 2007.

Bias = 0.2 Cσ = ±0.6 C

Bias = 3.1 Cσ = ±1.2 C

H. Huwald, C. W. Higgins, M.-O. Boldi, E. Bou-Zeid, M. Lehning, and M. B. Parlange (2009) Albedo effect on radiative errors in air temperature measurements Wat. Resour. Res. 45, W08431

Page 21: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

What is the IPCC actually communicating about future global average temperature?

What do we finally know about the future of Earth climate?

Nothing

(Almost) Nothing

What is the IPCC able to say about recent global average air temperature changes?

Very Little

The Scientific View of Recent and Future Climate( as opposed to the political view)

Page 22: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Amanda Staudt, Nancy Huddleston, Sandi Rudenstein, Michele de la Menardiere

http://dels.nas.edu/basc/

p. 2: “In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere”

p. 3: “However, much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than naturally occur—mostly from burning fossil fuels—are trapping excess heat in the atmosphere and are warming Earth’s surface faster than at any time in recorded history.”

p. 5: ““changes in [global-average surface temperature] observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities”...”

From the U.S. National Academy of Sciences

Page 23: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Figure 4. Simulations of past temperature more closely match observed temperature when both natural and human causes are included in the models. The gray lines indicate model results. The red lines indicate observed temperatures. Source: [IPCC}.

US National Academy of Sciences “Understanding Climate Change”

How NAS/IPCC Figure 4, Panel 3 might have looked if the NAS or the IPCC had decided to include the propagated temperature uncertainty from a 2.8 W m–2 cloud forcing error.

It makes little sense to claim an explanatory fit is impossible without man-made causes, when in fact an explanatory fit is impossible, period.

Page 24: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

The Global Thermohaline Conveyor Belt

“The global conveyor belt thermohaline circulation is driven primarily by the formation and sinking of deep water (from around 1500m to the Antarctic bottom water overlying the bottom of the ocean) in the Norwegian Sea.”

IPCC 2AR, 1996: http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/32.htm

Off the coast of Brazil at 2000-3000 m, a cool dense thermohaline current is flowing south

Page 25: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

As adapted in C. Wunsch Ocean observations and the Climate Forecast Problem In: Meteorology at the Millennium, R. P. Pearce, ed., London:Academic Press, 2002, pp. 233-245, Figure 5

800 Days of Laminar North Atlantic Deep Water Thermohaline FlowN. G. Hogg and W. B. Owens (1999) Direct measurement of the deep circulation within the Brazil Basin

Deep-Sea Research II 46 (1999) 335–353

“[I]t seems clear that our existing ideas of how the subthermocline regions work will have to be rethought. For example, the expectation that the deep flow might conform to simple Stommel-Arons dynamics with associated poleward interior flow seems unrealistic. Instead flows are more zonal than meridional and no consistent polewardcomponent emerges … at either the NADW or AABW levels.”

Neutrally buoyant floats measured current flow at 2500 m (North Atlantic Deep Water) and 4000 m (Antarctic Bottom Water).

Page 26: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

p. 244: "Examples [of important phenomena neglected in oceanography until actually observed include] temperature and velocity micro-structure, the intricate current regime near the equator, the dominance of high-latitude barotropic fluctuation, and the recent realization that the ocean probably mixes primarily at its boundaries -- in flagrant conflict with almost all GCMs."

p. 245: “In general, ocean models are not numerically converged, and questions about the meaning of nonnumerically converged models are typically swept aside on the basis that the circulations of the coarse resolution models “look” reasonable.”

Carl Wunsch

In: Ocean observations and the Climate Forecast Problem In: Meteorology at the Millennium, R. P. Pearce, ed., London:Academic Press, 2002, pp. 233-245

“The conveyor belt picture is a wonderful cocktail party metaphor for nonscientists.”*

* p. 236

Page 27: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Global Average CloudinessAR4 page 601, FAQ 8.1: “Significant uncertainties, in particular, are associated with the representation of clouds, and in the resulting cloud responses to climate change. Consequently, models continue to display a substantial range of global temperature change in response to specified greenhouse gas forcing.”

What is the average cloud error in GCMs? What is its effect on projected global average temperature?

W. L. Gates, et al. (1999) An Overview of the Results of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP I) Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80, 29-55.

Observed: 1983-1990; Predicted: 1979-1988

Page 28: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Cloud Error Estimation1. Integrate the global average cloudiness retrodicted by each GCM.2. Integrate the observed global average cloudiness across the identical

latitude ranges.3. Calculate the r.m.s. average error.

Ob s e rve d and GCM Re trod ic ted Gl o bal Ave rage Clou di ne s s Inte gr atedOve r the S am e Pair-W ise Latit udi na l Rang e s .

GCM GCMAver ag e

Clou di nes s

Ob s e rve dAver ag e

Clou di nes s

Abs o lut eFraction al

Error

Lag-1 ErrorAuto corr el ati on

[R]LMD 10629 9648 0 .1017 0 .9631DERF 10389 10291 0 .009516 0 .9595BMRC 90501 10346 0 .1252 0 .9881CNRM 10659 10306 0 .03422 0 .9766NRL 11710 10329 0 .1337 0 .9850MPI 11353 10313 0 .1008 0 .9767MRI 11709 10435 0 .1221 0 .9639DNM 10389 10291 0 .009516 0 .9595SUNGEN 10322 10268 0 .005232 0 .9411YONU 11972 10436 0 .1471 0 .9704

Average r.m.s. error = ±10.1%

Global net cloud forcing (satellite): = –27.6 W m-2.

Global average r.m.s. cloud error = ± 2.8 W m-2.

Global average r.m.s. cloud error = ±100% of the extra forcing due to all human-produced GHG’s.

Page 29: CERES CALIPSO Earth Radiation Budget Temperature ~ 254 K ...€¦ · MMTS)] =[(Ttrue −Ttrue)+(εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS) =εsys LiG −ε sys MMTS+ ε sys MMTS = ε sys LiG Figure

Cloud error in GCMs is not random but systematic

The Structure of GCM Global Cloudiness Error III

It is inherent in the GCMs and almost certainly reflects theory-bias

How does theory-bias error propagate in a time-wise projection?

T. S. Saitoh and S. Wakashima Energy Conversion Engineering Conference and Exhibit, 2000. (IECEC) 35th Intersociety , vol.2,, pp.1026-1031

In a time-wise climate projection every year Yn-1 provides the initial conditions for every year Yn.

C0F,T T1

T2-e T2

T2+eT2

T1-eT1

T1+e T1

T2

T2h+e T2hT2h

T2h-e T2h

T2l

T2l+eT2l

T2l-e T2l

And produces an increasing uncertainty in predictions of future global average temperature.

Theory-bias error does not cancel but accumulates

T0

Tn+et(Tn)

Tn-et(Tn)

Tn(m)

time

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Uncertainty Propagation in Time-wise Projections of Global Average Surface Temperature III

Figure SPM-5 when ±2.8 W m-2 propagated uncertainty is included and plotted at full scale

SRES AB1: 2.8 ±109 CSRES B1: 1.8 ± 95 CSRES CCC: 0.54±105 C

SRES A2: 3.7 ±111 CAt Year 2100

SRES A2

Figure 5 from the IPCC 4AR Summary for

Policy-Makers