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Cereals market situation
Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural
Markets
28 May 2020
1
2019/2020 Marketing Year
2
EU+UK Cereals Balance Sheet
3
EU+UK
EU+UK
CEREALS SUPPLY & DEMAND (thousand metric tonnes)
2019/20 (forecast)
LAST UPDATED: 28/05/2020 Common wheat Barley Durum wheat Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others TOTAL CEREALS
Beginning stocks 11.670 5.247 2.303 25.012 204 646 217 1.103 144 46.545
Usable production 146.860 63.052 7.491 70.009 8.316 979 7.849 11.007 3.723 319.286
Area (thousand ha) 23.786 12.275 2.188 8.904 2.215 197 2.548 2.753 1.451 56.317
Yield (tonnes/ha) 6 5 3 8 4 5 3 4 3 6
Imports (from third countries) 2.100 600 1.900 20.000 10 80 4 154 24.849
Total supply 160.630 68.899 11.694 115.021 8.530 1.705 8.071 12.110 4.020 390.680
Total domestic use
Human consumption 47.147 363 8.071 4.881 3.069 156 1.152 52 23 64.913
Seed 4.868 2.172 407 433 456 42 428 542 268 9.615
Industrial uses 10.900 8.700 95 12.000 1.311 103 449 202 33.760
of which
bioethanol/biofuel 4.300 437 6.256 700 344 14 12.051
Animal feed 49.800 37.200 400 68.500 2.500 450 5.700 8.700 3.300 176.550
Losses 900 400 40 600 70 70 90 40 2.210
Exports (to third countries) 32.000 11.000 1.200 4.700 200 4 200 2 8 49.315
Total use 145.615 59.836 10.213 91.114 7.605 652 7.652 9.835 3.841 336.362
Ending stocks** 15.014 9.064 1.481 23.907 925 1.053 419 2.275 179 54.317
Change in stocks** 3.344 3.816 -822 -1.105 721 407 202 1.172 36 7.772
* Marketing year: from July to June
** At the end of the marketing year
EU+UK Cereals Balance Sheet 2019/20
4
• Production forecast : above average (319,3 million tonnes,
+ 10,2% y/y)
o Increase of total cereal area (56,3 million ha, +2,3% y/y)
o Recovery of soft wheat and barley production
o Good quality milling wheat at EU level
o Quality issues for malting barley and durum wheat
• Decrease of maize imports
• Recovery of total exports, in particular for soft wheat and barley
• Increase of total ending stocks
EU Cereals Balance Sheet
5
EU EU
CEREALS SUPPLY & DEMAND (thousand metric tonnes)
2019/20 (forecast)
last updated: 30/04/2020 Common wheat Barley Durum wheat Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others TOTAL CEREALS
Beginning stocks 6.475 3.240 2.959 24.219 174 1.372 163 321 85 39.008
Usable production 130.762 55.072 7.491 69.974 8.243 979 6.786 10.950 3.723 293.979
Area (thousand ha) 21.970 11.113 2.188 8.897 2.183 197 2.367 2.740 1.451 53.106
Yield (tonnes/ha) 6 5 3 8 4 5 3 4 3 6
Imports (from third countries) 3.000 2.400 2.100 19.400 20 50 90 0 100 27.160
Total supply 140.237 60.712 12.551 113.593 8.437 2.401 7.038 11.271 3.907 360.147
Total domestic use 98.501 43.622 9.011 83.220 7.244 639 6.480 8.762 3.785 261.266
Human consumption 40.500 361 8.071 4.698 3.000 155 989 52 23 57.848
Seed 4.600 2.131 400 402 395 29 350 500 270 9.076
Industrial uses 9.717 6.700 95 11.100 1.300 0 101 445 170 29.628
of which
bioethanol/biofuel (3 740) ( 437) ( 0) (6 164) ( 700) ( 0) ( 0) ( 344) ( 14) (11 398)
Animal feed 42.900 34.100 400 66.600 2.500 450 5.000 7.700 3.300 162.750
Losses 785 330 45 420 49 6 41 66 22 1.764
Exports (to third countries) 32.500 10.100 1.300 5.900 300 13 200 14 17 50.344
Total use 131.001 53.722 10.311 89.120 7.544 652 6.680 8.776 3.802 311.610
Ending stocks** 9.236 6.990 2.240 24.474 892 1.748 358 2.494 106 48.538
Change in stocks** 2.761 3.750 -720 254 718 377 195 2.174 21 9.530
* Marketing year: from July to June
** At the end of the marketing year
EU Cereals Balance Sheet 2019/20
6
• Production forecast : above average (294 million tonnes, + 9,3% y/y)
o Increase of total cereal area (53,1 million ha, +2,3% y/y)
o Recovery of soft wheat and barley production
o Good quality milling wheat at EU level
• Decrease of maize and soft wheat imports
• Recovery of total exports, in particular for soft wheat and barley
• Increase of total ending stocks
2020/21 Marketing Year
7
EU : Area Forecasts
8
EVOLUTION OF THE EU 27 CEREALS AREA
2019
April. Forecast May Forecast vs. 2019/2020 (%)
Soft wheat 21,3 22,0 21,4 21,5 -2,2
Durum wheat 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,2 -0,5
Barley 11,1 11,1 11,4 11,4 3,0
Maize 8,3 8,9 8,6 8,8 -0,7
Rye 1,9 2,2 2,3 2,3 4,8
Oats 2,6 2,4 2,5 2,5 5,9
Total 51,9 53,1 52,6 52,8 -0,6Source: DG AGRI - G4
2020
(million ha)
2018
EU : Production Forecasts
9
EVOLUTION OF THE EU 27 CEREALS USABLE PRODUCTION
(million tonnes)
2019/20
April. Forecast May Forecast vs. 2019/2020 (%)
Soft wheat 114,8 130,8 125,8 121,5 -7,1
Durum wheat 8,7 7,5 7,6 7,3 -2,7
Barley 49,5 55,1 56,1 56,2 2,0
Maize 69,0 70,0 69,5 71,4 2,0
Rye 6,0 8,2 8,7 8,7 6,1
Oats 7,7 6,8 7,2 7,2 5,9
Total 269,0 294,0 289,6 287,0 -2,4Source: DG AGRI -G4
2018/19 2020/21
10
EU production: 287 million tonnes - difference to 5 year trimmed average: +1.9%
Total cereals production - 2020 projection (million tonnes)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
63,7
15,1
43,7
1,4
3,4
0,0
7,6
1,9
2,9
2,99,3
20,6
2,6
9,8
5,9
29,3
1,0
15,428,9
0,2
1,7
5,0
0,6
4,2
3,8
6,1
EU area: 52.8 million hectares - difference to 5 year trimmed average: -0.2%
Total cereals area - 2020 projection (million hectares)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
9,2
2,9
6,2
0,3
0,5
0,0
1,3
0,2
0,8
0,71,4
6,0
0,3
1,8
1,5
7,7
0,2
2,55,4
0,2
0,8
0,1
0,8
1,0
1,0
11
EU area: 21 482 thousand hectares - difference to 5 year trimmed average: -2,3%
Soft wheat area - 2020 projection (thousand hectares)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
4.643
536
2.900
168
139
3,8
800
31,9
108
488566
1.656
204
1.138
984
2.482
21,9
9782.135
13,8
147
263
30,7
369
200
478
EU production: 121,5 million tonnes - difference to 5 year trimmed average: -3,5%
Soft wheat production - 2020 projection (million tonnes)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
32,0
2,8
21,9
0,7
0,8
0,0
4,6
0,3
0,3
2,24,4
5,4
1,7
5,8
4,5
11,1
0,1
4,89,1
0,1
1,3
1,4
0,2
1,8
0,8
3,5
12
EU area: 11 444 thousand hectares - difference to 5 year trimmed average: +2,9%
Barley area - 2020 projection (thousand hectares)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
1.999
248
1.705
127
61,9
18,0
338
164
129
97,9640
2.706
46,6
130
195
979
17,6
275455
6,6
33,1
154
19,9
130
450
319
EU production: 56,2 million tonnes - difference to 5 year trimmed average: +6,6%
Barley production - 2020 projection (million tonnes)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
12,9
1,0
11,5
0,5
0,3
0,0
1,9
1,4
0,3
0,33,6
8,2
0,4
0,6
0,7
3,6
1,62,1
0,2
0,9
0,1
0,7
1,7
1,5
13
EU area: 8 834 thousand hectares - difference to 5 year trimmed average: +3%
Maize area - 2020 projection (thousand hectares)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
1.674
646
460
252
82,6
128
5,8
351
51,7
450
12,3
633
86,2
1.0092.545
0,1
13,9
205
37,7
188
1,4
EU production: 71,4 million tonnes - difference to 5 year trimmed average: +9%
Maize production - 2020 projection (million tonnes)
Difference to 5 year trimmed average
< -10 %
Between - 10 % and - 5 %
Between - 5 % and + 5 %
Between + 5 % and + 10 %
> + 10 %
14,8
6,6
4,1
2,2
0,6
1,34,2
0,5
3,3
0,1
3,9
0,8
8,316,8
0,1
2,0
0,3
1,4
EU 2020/21 Usable Production
14
EU 27 Usable production, 2020/21
(million tonnes)
28-May 14-May 30-April 16-March
Soft Wheat 121,5 123,1 123,7 125,6
Durum Wheat 7,3 7,8 7,6 7,4
Barley 56,2 54,5 54,1 54,1
Maize 71,4 65,9 64,2 64,9
Rye 8,7 7,8 8,4 8,5
Total Cereals 287,0 283,1 278,6 282,5
COCERALEC
DG AGRI
Stratégie
GrainADM
Production 2020/21 Forecast Year/Year Variation
15
France -9,9%
Germany -0,7%
Poland 3,0%
Italy 3,9%
Spain 7,6%
Hungary -0,7%
Romania -3,0%
*: 75% of the EU production
Source: DG AGRI -G4
(most important producers*)
16
EU market prices for milling wheat – (€/tonne)
Source: International Grains Council
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
RO - Constanta - 205
FR - Rouen - 201
DE - Hamburg - 208
17
EU market prices for feed barley – (€/tonne)
Source: International Grains Council
120
140
160
180
200
220
120
140
160
180
200
220
DE - Hamburg - 179
FR - Rouen - 166
18
EU market prices for maize – (€/tonne)
Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
120
140
160
180
200
220
HU - Great Plain - 135
RO - Constanta - 167
NL - Rotterdam - 183
FR - Bordeaux - n.q.
19
EU market prices for durum wheat – (€/tonne)
Italy
(Bologna)
Spain
(Sevilla)
Greece
(Serres)
France
(La Pallice)
Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290IT - Bologna - 278
ES - Sevilla - n.q.
FR - La Pallice - n.q.
GR - Serres - n.q.
EU market prices
20
• Milling wheat: Fob Rouen around 200 EUR/tonne (stable m/m and + 5% y/y)
• Feed barley : Delivered Rouen 166 EUR/tonne - (stable m/m and – 10% y/y)
• Maize: 167 EUR/tonne Fob Constanta (- 4% m/m and + 4% y/y)
• Durum wheat: 278 EUR/tonne delivered Bologna (-2% m/m and + 30 % y/y)
EU Cereals Balance Sheet
21
EU EU
CEREALS SUPPLY & DEMAND (thousand metric tonnes)
2020/21 (projection)
last updated: 30/04/2020 Common wheat Barley Durum wheat Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others TOTAL CEREALS
Beginning stocks 9.236 6.990 2.240 24.474 892 1.748 358 2.494 106 48.538
Usable production 121.503 56.187 7.294 71.440 8.694 744 7.198 10.372 3.538 286.970
Area (thousand ha) 21.482 11.444 2.177 8.834 2.287 142 2.507 2.550 1.387 52.809
Yield (tonnes/ha) 6 5 3 8 4 5 3 4 3 5
Imports (from third countries) 4.055 1.377 1.853 16.595 46 233 55 0 146 24.360
Total supply 134.794 64.554 11.386 112.508 9.633 2.725 7.611 12.867 3.790 359.867
Total domestic use 98.407 43.710 9.022 83.135 7.113 638 6.486 8.759 3.784 261.055
Human consumption 40.561 363 8.083 4.705 2.961 155 992 52 23 57.894
Seed 4.600 2.131 400 402 300 29 350 500 270 8.981
Industrial uses 9.717 6.780 95 11.100 1.300 0 101 445 170 29.708
of which
bioethanol/biofuel (3 740) ( 437) ( 0) (6 164) ( 700) ( 0) ( 0) ( 344) ( 14) (11 398)
Animal feed 42.800 34.100 400 66.500 2.500 450 5.000 7.700 3.300 162.750
Losses 729 337 44 429 52 4 43 62 21 1.722
Exports (to third countries) 26.500 10.800 1.269 3.528 169 13 194 3 18 42.493
Total use 124.907 54.510 10.291 86.663 7.282 652 6.680 8.762 3.801 303.548
Ending stocks** 9.887 10.044 1.095 25.845 2.351 2.074 931 4.105 -12 56.319
Change in stocks** 651 3.054 -1.145 1.371 1.458 325 573 1.611 -117 7.781
* Marketing year: from July to June
** At the end of the marketing year
EU Cereals Balance Sheet 2020/21
22
• Production forecast above average (287 million tonnes, - 2,4% y/y)
o Areas communicated by Member States
o Yield trends as regards maize
o Decrease of total cereal area (52,8 million ha, -0,6% y/y)
o Decrease of soft wheat production and
o Recovery of barley production
• Decrease of total imports, in particular for maize imports
• Decrease of total exports, in particular for soft wheat
• Increase of total ending stocks
Thank you
© European Union 2020
Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are
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The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however where it is deemed relevant (e.g. for
comparison purposes) an EU+UK aggregate are still displayed
