TOWARDS A NEW TRANSITION VIA

SUPPORTING POLICY DIALOGUE

Assessing the ProgressStrengthened State, Stabilized economy, Structural reforms

• Creating basic institutions of an independent state

• Introducing basic institutions and principles of market based economy

• National currency• Prices liberalization• Direct government support of

real sector enterprises• SME privatization • Creating a new system of social

protection• …

1991 - 1995

Overcoming Economic Recession

1996 - 2003

Recovering Growth and Launching Structural Reforms

2004 - 2012

Стабилизация экономики и умеренный рост

Deepening Structural reforms and Accelerating Growth

• Achievement of grain and energy independence

• Expanding privatization process, including large enterprises involving strategic investors

• Creation of new large industrial enterprises

• Localization programs in the industrial sector

• Reforming the management system of the economy sectors

• Launching the National Training Programme

• …

• Creating incentives for export• Improving conditions for

development of small business and entrepreneurship

• Sectoral modernization programs

• Stimulating industrial cooperation

• Creating free economic zones, transport and logistics hubs

• Wide use of ICT in different areas

• …

Assessing the Progress Quality of Human Capital

67.4

70.973.5

75.4

60

63

66

69

72

75

78

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Life expectancy, years

Мужчины Женщины

500

550

600

650

700

750

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Maternal and Infant Mortality

родившихся (тыс.чел), правая шкала

младенческая смертность (на 1000 живорожденных)

материнская смертность (на 100 000 живорожденных)

Achievements:• High level of expenditures for social

purposes• Significant decrease in maternal and

infant mortality• Increase in life expectancy

Male Female

Birth (thousands), right scale

Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births)

Maternal mortality (per 100,000 live births)

49.0 48.5 49.0 49.3 49.9 56.5 58.5 59.4 60.2 61.2 58.2

100 104 108 113121

130139

153166

180195

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

40

80

120

160

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Expenditures for Social Sphereand Social Security

Доля расходов на социальную сферу и социальную защиту (в % к расходам госбюджета)Динамика роста ВВП (2000=100)

Государственные расходы на образование (в % к ВВП), правая шкала

Share of expenditures on social sphere and security (% to total state budget expenditures) Dynamics of GDP growth (2000=100)

Education expenditures, public (% of GDP)

Looking ForwardTransformed Economy and State

for the prosperous development, harmonious society and secure future

Sustaining peace and security

Changing the pattern of growth

and the structure of national economy

Building effective Institutions to

drive the accelerated

transformation

Creating human capital for the

changing economy, state

and society

Building harmonious

society, united on its way forward

• Improved regulatory framework and reduced transaction costs for businesses

• Favorable conditions for formation of large business groups

• Encourage savings, and their transformation into investment

• …

• Attraction of high technologies, increase the share of high-tech industries in production and export structure

• Creating favorable conditions for expansion of private funding of modernization processes

• ….

• Expanding production of goods and services with high added value

• Transition to a knowledge-based economy

• Promote Uzbekistan’s geo-economic interests

• …

2012 - 2015 2020 - 20302016 - 2020

Modernizing basic sectors Developing processing industry Foreign trade and integration to the global economy

Shift to a new stage

• Access to finance • Access to new technologies • Access to new markets • New environment & institutions

• Infrastructure • Basic industries • Domestic demand

Economic Transformation

Social Transformation

Spatial Transformation (Development)

Political (Institutional ) Transformation

Where 2 Go: CER Mid-Term Research Agenda

Convergence, Timing and Sequencing

• Quality of social sectors• Social safety nets • Consumer behavior • …

• Allocation of production forces

• Demography & labor market • Local governments • …

• Industrial policy and structural reforms

• Private sector development • Competitive markets • …

• Distribution of powers• Quality of regulation • ICT and Governance • …

A New Transition AheadThere is a need for:

• Strengthening broad policy dialogue at national, sub-national, regional and local levelso Decision process is internalized? – Not so much!

o Some sensitive issues remain as taboo? – No, there are ways!

o Information is not available? – There is no information at all!

• Building capacities for participatory policy processes o National capacities are weak? – Yes!

o Are there possibilities to build capacities? – Yes!

• Linking pilots and demonstration to policy analysis and formulationo Do we have success stories? – Yes!

o Do we have a demand from the government? – Yes!

Questions for discussion

• Are there any dimensions, critical issues which were missed, should get considered in more detail?

• How could we make the policy dialogue more effective and participatory, aligned with the country priorities? Suggested formats and models.

• Are there windows for synergies?

Please, send your comments:

- on “Looking Beyond the Horizon” to vision@cer.uz

- on “Inflation and Prices” Bulletin to index@cer.uz

Thank you!