Centre of Criminology, Faculty of Law Africa focused. Globally engaged.

Fulcrum Institutions and Sustainability Programme

Monthly Literature Review: April 2013

News 1. Huffington Post: Droughts, Storms, Floods, Fires and the Tea Party. Download. 2. Engineering News: Adaptation Planning needed to Protect Poor from Climate Risk – Study.

Download. 3. BusinessGreen: Has Sustainability become a Risky Business. Download.

ACADEMIC ARTICLES 4. Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: Probability to Contingency (Oels, 2013). 5. Thoughts on Dealing with Climate Change…As if the Future Matters (Glantz & Kelman, 2013). 6. Risk Management and Climate Change (Kunreuther et al, 2013). 7. Translating Disaster Resilience into Spatial Planning Practice in South Africa: Challenges and

Champions (Van Niekerk, 2013). 8. Changing Social Contracts in Climate-Change Adaptation (Adger et al, 2013) 9. Encouraging Mitigation against Disasters through Private and Public Sector Initiatives

(Kunreuther et al, 2012)

OTHER SOURCES

Books 1. Imperiled Life: Revolution Against Climate Catastrophe (Sethness-Castro, 2012). 2. Cities at Risk: Living with Perils of the 21

st Century (Joffe et al, 2013)

3. Floods in a Megacity: Geospatial Techniques in Assessing Hazards, Risk and Vulnerability (Dewan, 1013)

4. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards (Rougier et al, 2013)

Industry literature 1. Climate Finance: Mobilising Private Sector Finance for Mitigation and Adaptation (Institute for Security Studies, 2013). 2. The Carbon Control Knob (Alley, 2012). 3. Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction (Tearfund, 2008). 4. Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020 – 2050: Projected Impacts and

Response to Adaptation Strategies (World Bank, 2012). 5. Point of Inflection? (Marsh, 2013). 6. 2013 Six Growing Trends in Corporate Sustainability (Ernst & Young).

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ACADEMIC ARTICLES

Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: Probability to Contingency

Abstract: In this paper, I use Foucault’s concept of governmentality to investigate changes in the risk management of climate change. In an exploratory analysis of primary and secondary sources, I demonstrate that the risk construction of climate change has shifted significantly from 1988 to 2010. Risk construction has broadened, and related policies now include mitigation, adaptation and disaster preparedness. Furthermore, I demonstrate that the meaning of ‘security’ and the related modes of risk management have shifted over time. I show that traditional science-based risk management has been dominant in mitigation and adaptation policy. The articulation of climate change as a security issue since 2003 indicates risk management through contingency. I argue that what the Copenhagen School has studied as the ‘failed securitization’ of climate change and a lack of extraordinary measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions are better understood as the ‘climatization’ of security. The governmental rationale since 2007 has been to prepare for and manage the ‘inevitable’ primary and secondary impacts of unmitigated climate change.

Oels, A., 2013. Rendering Climate Change Governable by Risk: From Probability to Contingency.

Geoforum, 45, pp. 17-29. Download.

Thoughts on Dealing with Climate Change…As if the Future Matters

Abstract: This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.

Glantz, M.H. & Kelman., 2013. Thoughts on Dealing with Climate Change…As if the Future Matters.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 4(1), pp. 1-8. Download.

Risk Management and Climate Change

Abstract: The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

Kunreuther, H., Heal, G., Allen, M., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B., & Yohe, G., 2013.

Risk Management and Climate Change. Nature Climate Change, 3, pp. 447-450. Download.

Translating Disaster Resilience into Spatial Planning Practice in South Africa: Challenges and Champions

Abstract: It is highly likely that hazards and extreme climatic events will occur more frequently in the future and will become more severe – increasing the vulnerability and risk of millions of poor urbanites in developing countries. Disaster resilience aims to reduce disaster losses by equipping cities to withstand, absorb, adapt to or recover from external shocks. This paper questions whether disaster resilience is likely to be taken up in spatial planning practices in South Africa, given its immediate developmental priorities and challenges. In South Africa, issues of development take precedence over issues of sustainability, environmental management and disaster reduction. This is illustrated by the priority given to ‘servicing’ settlements compared to the opportunities offered by ‘transforming’ spaces through post-apartheid spatial planning. The City of Durban’s quest in adapting to climate change demonstrates hypothetically that if disaster resilience were to be presented as an issue distinct from what urban planners are already doing, then planners would see it as insignificant as compared to addressing the many developmental backlogs and challenges. If, however, it is regarded as a means to secure a city’s development path whilst simultaneously addressing sustainability, then disaster resilience is more likely to be translated into spatial planning practices in South Africa.

Van Niekerk, W., 2013. Translating Disaster Resilience into Spatial Planning Practice in South Africa: Challenges and

Champions. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 5(1), pp. 1-6. Download.

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Changing Social Contracts in Climate-Change Adaptation

Abstract: Risks from extreme weather events are mediated through state, civil society and individual action. We propose evolving social contracts as a primary mechanism by which adaptation to climate change proceeds. We use a natural experiment of policy and social contexts of the UK and Ireland affected by the same meteorological event and resultant flooding in November 2009. We analyse data from policy documents and from household surveys of 356 residents in western Ireland and northwest England. We find significant differences between perceptions of individual responsibility for protection across the jurisdictions and between perceptions of future risk from populations directly affected by flooding events. These explain differences in stated willingness to take individual adaptive actions when state support retrenches. We therefore show that expectations for state protection are critical in mediating impacts and promoting longer-term adaptation. We argue that making social contracts explicit may smooth pathways to effective and legitimate adaptation.

Adger, W.N., Quinn, T., Lorenzoni, I., Murphy, C., & Sweeney, J., 2013. Changing Social Contracts in

Climate-Change Adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 3, pp. 330-333. Download.

Encouraging Mitigation against Disasters through Private and Public Sector Initiatives

Key Points and Recommendations: Many people do not invest in loss reduction measures against natural disasters for

behavioural reasons such as underestimation of the risk, difficulty in computing cost-benefit tradeoffs, under‐weighting the future and learning failures. They are also reluctant to incur the relatively high upfront costs of some of these measures due to budget constraints. Insurance can encourage the adoption of cost‐effective mitigation measures if it is guided by the following three principles: Principle 1: Premium reflecting risk. Insurance premiums should reflect risk to signal to individuals how safe they are and what preventive or protective measures they can undertake to reduce their vulnerability to property losses. Principle 2: Dealing with equity and affordability issues. Any special treatment given to consumers at risk currently residing in hazard-prone areas should be in the form of a means-tested insurance voucher. Principle 3: Multi-year insurance. To encourage investment in preventive and protective measures, insurers should design multi-year contracts with fixed annual premiums reflecting risk. We propose focusing on the National Flood Insurance Program as a starting point for utilizing these principles. The Flood Insurance Reform Act of July 2012 renewed the NFIP for five years notes the importance of Principles 1 and 2 in redesigning the program. Other complementary measures include:

Using economic incentives to encourage investment in mitigation measures

Reframing the problem of risk

Well-enforced building codes

Providing mitigation seals of approval

Providing local, state and federal tax incentives

Encouraging or mandating better zoning.

Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E.O. & Pauly, M.V., 2012. Encouraging Mitigation against Disasters

through Private and Public Sector Initiatives. Working Paper 2012-17. The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, pp. 1-18. Download.

OTHER SOURCES: BOOKS

Imperiled Life: Revolution against Climate Catastrophe

Imperiled Life theorizes an exit from the potentially terminal consequences of capital-induced climate change. It is a collection of reflections on the phenomenon of catastrophe—climatological, political, social—as well as on the possibilities of overcoming disaster. The fourth title in our Anarchist Intervention Series, co-published with the Institute for Anarchist Studies! Javier Sethness-Castro presents the grim news from contemporary climatologists while providing a reconstructive vision inspired by anarchist intellectual traditions and promoting critical thought as a means of changing our historical trajectory.

Sethness-Castro, J., 2012. Imperiled Life: Revolution against Climate Catastrophe. AK Press. Download.

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Cities at Risk: Living with Perils in the 21st Century

With the major growth of the world’s population over the past century, as well as rapid urbanisation, people increasingly live in crowded cities. This trend is often accompanied by proliferation of poorly built housing, uncontrolled use of land, occupation of unsafe environments and overstretched services. When a natural hazard strikes such a city many people are vulnerable to loss of life and property. This book explores what these people think and feel about the threats that they face. How do they live with perils ranging from earthquakes to monsoons, from floods to hurricanes, in the 21

st century?

The authors are drawn from a large range of disciplines: Psychology, Engineering, Geography, Anthropology and Urban Planning. They also reflect on how perils are represented in multiple cultures: the United States, Japan, Turkey, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. The book therefore not only brings to light the ways that different cultures represent natural hazards but also the different ways in which various disciplines write about living with perils in the 21st century. The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with risk management and risk mitigation.

Joffe, H., Rossetto, T., & Adams, J., 2013. Cities at Risk: Living with Perils in the 21

st Century.

Springer. Download. Floods in a Megacity: Geospatial Techniques in Assessing Hazards, Risk and Vulnerability

Flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world. Available records suggest that both flood frequency and severity are on the rise and this is likely to worsen in the context of climate change. As population, infrastructure and poverty grow rapidly in developing countries, particularly in urban agglomerations of 10 million people or more, floods could cause widespread devastation, economic damage and loss of life. Assessment of vulnerability and risk from naturally occurring phenomena is therefore imperative in order to achieve urban sustainability. This book uses geospatial techniques to evaluate hazards, risk and vulnerability at a metropolitan scale in a data-scarce country. An empirical study was performed using remote sensing, GIS and census data. This research offers a new approach to mapping population, infrastructures and communities at risk which can greatly contribute to the deeper understanding of flood disasters in a rapidly expanding megacity. Examples shown in this book are from Dhaka Megacity, however, the techniques and methods can easily be implemented in medium to large cities of similar characteristics. The book is essential reading for hazard researchers, geospatial scientists, disaster management professionals, geographers, urban planners, and social scientists. Ashraf M. Dewan is currently a Lecturer in the

Department of Spatial Sciences at Curtin University, Western Australia (on leave from his substantive position as Associate Professor in the Geography & Environment Department at the University of Dhaka, Bangladesh).

Dewan, A., 2013., Floods in a Megacity: Geospatial Techniques in Assessing Hazards, Risk and Vulnerability. Springer. Download.

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Rougier, J., 2013. Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards. Cambridge University Press. Download.

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INDUSTRY LITERATURE

Institute for Security Studies: Climate Finance: Mobilising Private Sector Finance for Mitigation and Adaptation

Abstract: Despite the uncertainties surrounding the risks associated with climate change, it is indisputably one of the greatest challenges of our time. Climate finance supports various climate change mitigation and adaptation activities, as well as efforts to enable the transition towards low-carbon, climate-resilient development. This report focuses on private sector financing and how it can be more effectively mobilised, especially in developing countries. Political instability and financial flaws create barriers for private investors, and it is crucial to overcome these barriers to encourage an enabling environment for private investment. The report investigates the regulatory framework and the role of private sector financing; examines investment barriers; and makes policy recommendations aimed at greater climate resilience. Financial instruments to leverage private investment are outlined, with a focus on the Green Climate Fund.

Ruppel, O.C. & Luedemann, C., 2013. Climate Finance: Mobilising Private Sector Finance for Mitigation

and Adaptation. Institute for Security Studies. Download.

The National Climate Seminar Series: The Carbon Control Knob

Introduction: On November 2, 2011, Richard Alley participated in The National Climate Seminar, a series of webinars sponsored by Bard College’s Center for Environmental Policy. The online seminars provide a forum for leading scientists, writers, and other experts to talk about critical issues regarding climate change. The series also opens a public conversation, inviting participants to ask questions and contribute their own thoughts. Dr. Alley conducts research on the paleoclimatic record at Pennsylvania State University in order to understand the history, and perhaps the future, of climate change. In his lecture, Alley gave a concise overview of why we know what we know about climate change, and what that evidence can tell us about today’s warming planet. Alley not only provides an accessible science lesson, but also reveals his own greatest concerns about climate change and offers advice to those who want to stop debating the subtleties of climate science and act now. What follows is an edited version of Alley’s talk and the subsequent question and answer session. While some material has been cut and some language modified for clarity, the intention was to retain the substance of the original discussion.

Alley, R., 2012. The Carbon Control Knob. The National Climate Seminar Series.

Island Press. Download.

Tearfund: Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk

Executive Summary: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (DRR) have similar aims and mutual benefits. However, to date the climate change and disaster risk management communities have operated largely in isolation from each other – for a number of reasons. This situation must change as a matter of urgency. Adaptation and DRR policy makers, experts and practitioners must communicate and collaborate with each other effectively to ensure a comprehensive risk management approach to development at local, national and international levels of government. This could result in the following benefits:

1. Reduction of climate-related losses through more widespread implementation of DRR measures linked with adaptation.

2. More efficient use of financial, human and natural resources. 3. Increased effectiveness and sustainability of both adaptation and DRR approaches.

Closer collaboration on these issues is particularly critical as governments negotiate on the adaptation pillar of the post-2012 framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). DRR must be a key component of the post-2012 framework if an effective, sustainable approach to adaptation is to be achieved. The recommendations within this report are focused on improving communication and collaboration between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk management communities. Some are relevant to both communities, while others are more specifically directed at one or the other.

Venton, P., & La Trobe, S., 2008.Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster

Risk Reduction. Tearfund. Download.

World Bank: Climate Change and Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050: Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies

Abstract: The impacts of climate change on agriculture are projected to be significant in coming decades, so response strategies, and their likely costs, should be evaluated now. That is why this study produced an open-access, crop-climate-economic impact modeling platform for Latin America and the Caribbean, that can be extended to other regions, then modified and improved by users as new crop, climate, and economic datasets become available. The new platform projects the likely impacts of agroclimatic factors on crop productivity, on the basis of climate projections from two general circulation models, and

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couples it with an economic model to derive and evaluate a range of climate-change scenarios and likely agricultural productivity and economic impacts over the next several decades.

Fernandes, E.C. M., Soliman, A., Confalonieri, R., Donatelli, M., & Tubiello, F., 2012.Climate Change and

Agriculture in Latin America, 2020-2050: Projected Impacts and Response to Adaptation Strategies. World Bank, Washington DC. Download.

Marsh: Points of Inflection?

The last two years have seen momentous changes with catastrophic events and changes within the energy industry driving energy insurance market trends. The unprecedented string of natural catastrophes over the last two years – the New Zealand earthquakes, the Australian Floods, the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami, the Thai floods, and the recent Superstorm Sandy in the US – all point to the need for a fundamental rethink of catastrophe models and the need to review supply chain risks, leading to greater scrutiny from the insurance markets of natural catastrophe (NAT CAT) limits and contingent business interruption (CBI) limits. But the last two years have also seen massive changes in the energy world itself. The dramatic fallout following the Deepwater Horizon blowout has changed, once and for all, the way energy underwriters and buyers look at liability and control of well limits. The Elgin Franklin situation in the North Sea last year also identified a new set of potential challenges for more mature fields. New technology, new frontiers, and the shale gas revolution, are also all changing exposures and how they are calculated. The development of larger and larger floating storage regasification units (FSRU) and floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels is challenging capacity through the development of single floating structures with massive values. The sheer scale of some of the larger projects is changing the landscape for construction risks and already some very large structures are coming to operational stage with the limits of capacity available in the commercial market being stretched. The increase in project costs is also being reflected in the revaluation of older assets as many have recently experienced in the North Sea; once again, creating a new pressure on capacity. All of the above is leading to changing risk transfer needs and requirements for energy assureds, in addition to new pressures for reinsurance and portfolio management for energy underwriters. So are we at the critical point of inflection for the markets? There seems a compelling case for it. Certainly many underwriters hope so, some even believe it. Sentiment has certainly changed in many corners of the energy market. The analysis from our various specialists contained in this review would however tend to point to “business as usual”. Although a disappointment for wishful thinkers, overall it is good news for energy insurance buyers looking for a more stable environment.

Marsh., 2013. Point of Inflection? Energy Market Monitor. Download.

Ernst & Young: 2013 Six Growing Trends in Corporate Sustainability

Introduction: This report summarizes results based primarily on a survey of the GreenBiz Intelligence Panel, consisting of executives and thought leaders in the area of corporate environmental strategy and performance. Panel members participate in brief monthly surveys to provide their expertise and perspective on corporate initiatives, laws and regulations, and scientific advances that are shaping the green agenda. Data were collected during fall 2012. The survey was conducted online, and an email link was sent to the panel’s 3,630 members inviting them to participate anonymously in the survey. For the purposes of this report, we analyzed the results from 282 respondents who represented 17 sectors and are employed by companies with annual revenue greater than US$1 billion. Approximately 85% of these respondents are based in the United States. It is important to note that the quantitative data in the report may skew higher than if the panel was representative of a broader demographic — that is, executives and managers not necessarily focused on their company’s environmental corporate sustainability efforts. However, the responding companies represent a broad diversity of corporate sustainability experience: those just beginning to engage in corporate sustainability as well as those that have been engaged for years.

Ernst & Young., 2013. Six Growing Trends in Corporate Sustainability.

Ernst & Young. Download.