CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH€¦ · Dr Swapna Jambhekar, Research Consultant, CPPR Dr Harisankar K. Sathyapalan, Research Fellow (International Law and Dispute Settlement),

COVID 19:A COLLECTION OF ESSAYSJUNE 15, 2020

CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH

Published in 2020 by Centre for Public PolicyResearch, Kochi Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR)First Floor, “Anitha”, Sahodaran Ayappan RoadElamkulam, Kochi, Kerala , India-682020www.cppr.in | E-mail: [email protected] Distributed by Centre for Public Policy Research,KochiCopyright © Centre for Public Policy Research,KochiAll rights reserved. This publication, or any partthereof shall not be reproduced in any formwhatsoever without permission in writing from thepublisher. Views expressed by the authors are personal andneed not reflect or represent the views of Centre forPublic Policy Research. Authors

JUNE 2020 PAGE 1

COVID 19: A COLLECTION OF ESSAYS

Image source: The Week

Dr D Dhanuraj, Chairman, CPPRDr Vijay Sakhuja, Hon. Distinguished Fellow, CPPRDr Jose Sebastian, Senior Fellow (Finance), CPPRCdr Jayakrishnan N Nair (Retd), Senior Fellow (Defence andMilitary Analysis), CPPRDr Swapna Jambhekar, Research Consultant, CPPRDr Harisankar K. Sathyapalan, Research Fellow(International Law and Dispute Settlement), CPPRRahul V Kumar, Research Fellow (Market Economics), CPPRNithin Ramakrishnan, Research Scholar, CPPRNissy Solomon, Senior Research Associate, CPPRGazi Hassan, Senior Research Associate, CPPRAiswarya Krishnan, Project Associate, CPPRAngela Cicily Joseph, Research Associate, CPPRKatyayinee Richhariya, Research Intern, CPPRNila Nair, Research Intern, CPPR Dr Rijo M John, Senior Fellow (Health Economics), CPPR

Covid Infographs

INTRODUCTION NOTE

As 196 countries reel under the

onslaught of COVID-19, our experts are

making sense of how this virus is

redefining political, economic and geo-

strategic contours in India and the

World. We are looking into its impact on

governance structures including

national, international & state-level

policies, federalism and decentralisation,

political economy, urban spaces and

public transport. We also focus on

understanding its impact on Kerala's

economy & model of development.

To read articles and infographs related

to COVID 19 published by CPPR, visit

www.cppr.in/covid19

JUNE 2020 PAGE 2

Image source: The Week


http://www.cppr.in/covid19

India possess 24,000 tonnes of gold and

account for 25 percent of the global market

demand. If we consider the per capita

possession of gold in addition to the per capita

income, India’s total wealth seems to change.

Rural India accounts for approximately 60

percent of gold, where people traditionally use

it for getting loans from moneylenders and

pawnbrokers.

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ECONOMY

Image source: World Economic Forum


Nissy Solomon

Remonetise gold to tide over the economic crisis Nissy Solomon and Dr D Dhanuraj As the COVID-19 pandemic has pushedglobal economy into an unprecedented scaleof low growth and massive employmentloss, the resource mobilisation to reviveeconomic activities is reaching a franticscale and dimension. In India, the extent ofthe damage is difficult to ascertain as therural and informal sectors play a significantrole in economic growth.The government has a herculean task ofpackaging different essentials andmonetary support, with a focus on varioussegments of society, reflecting the diversenature of the needs and requirements of thepeople.It is worth exploring the possibilitiesaround gold, which is treated as aninvestment and asset by the majority ofIndians. India’s official gold holdings, heldby the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), coupled

with the private stock of gold in Indianhouseholds form a significant resource.With 635 tonnes of official stock, India’sshare as a percentage of the total foreignreserve stands at 6.9 percent.Reports have assessed that households inIndia possess 24,000 tonnes of gold andaccount for 25 percent of the global marketdemand. If we consider the per capitapossession of gold in addition to the percapita income, India’s total wealth seems tochange. Rural India accounts forapproximately 60 percent of gold, wherepeople traditionally use it for getting loansfrom moneylenders and pawnbrokers.The appetite for gold consumption in Indiahas pushed the government to restrict itsimport. The balance of payment, at times, isstretched by the higher import of gold. Theinternal circulation of gold has been

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restricted, except for sale and exchangethrough jewellers and informal markets.Even banks have limited options for lendingloans against gold on a market transactionbasis due to RBI’s restrictive guidelines.This has also limited open and transparentinformation required for a competitivemarket. The lack of forbearance andacceptance of gold as a commodity haveresulted in bank loans, especially thosemeant for agricultural farmers, landing inthe hands of wrong beneficiaries.

Gold And Credit Schemes

In the last decade, the government woke upto the fact that the domestic possessionof gold is not leveraged or used forremonetisation. This led to theintroduction of different schemes, such asSovereign Gold Bond, Gold Coinsand Gold Monetisation Schemes (GMS).Unfortunately, none of these schemesachieved the desired results, nor areshowing any encouraging trend. The GMSwas able to garner only 16 tonnes of gold inthe last four years as these schemes are notdesigned keeping in mind the majority whohave the metal.Gold bond schemes are oriented towardsthe rich and the investors. On the otherhand, there is a poor understanding ofbonds and this accentuates the challengesto popularise the schemes. Gold coins aremeant for investors of the higher-order.The question is how to tap the marketpotential of gold in these difficult times tosupport the ailing economy.

The government should declare a liberalgold policy. As per the World Gold Council(WGC), the estimated value of gold in Indiais 40 percent of India’s Nominal GrossDomestic Product in present value terms.Thus, even if 10 percent of this gold ismonetised, it will ensure a liquidity of Rs 13lakh-crore, which is more than 10 percent ofthe total budget needed to spend toovercome the crisis.To improve liquidity in the rural market,gold in the domestic market should beallowed to be monetised. Variousmechanisms and channels should be put inplace for allowing short- to long-termdeposits to avail loans and investments byall sections of society. Those who couldaccess the nearest banks of micro finances(MFs) should be allowed to avail loanswithout a blanket restriction placed on LTV(Loan to Value).

Weighing The Risk

The obvious risk associated here isthat gold loans are exposed to fluctuationsin gold prices in the market. An increase ingold prices and a subsequent increasein gold loan borrowings involves the risk ofan asset bubble, which may burst when theprice trend reverses. This raises the fear ofNBFCs facing default. It is, therefore,pertinent to look at the historical figuresand the subsequent prudential approach bythe regulatory body.The average price of gold has shown asteady increase in the last two decades witha reversal between 2013 and 2015.

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Gold prices skyrocketed in 2011 and 2012.Gold financiers expanded their business, asmore people pledged gold for cheaper loans.To contain the risk emanating from thebusiness’ vulnerability to pricefluctuations, the RBI intervened by cappingthe LTV ratio to 60 percent.The prudential approach coincided with aglobal slump in the price of gold and thecombined factors ushered gold financiersinto a low-growth phase. The RBI has nowrevised the LTV from 60 to 75 percent. Thecap gives a certain safety margin againstthe fall in prices, creating creditworthinessin the operations. However, this has alsodiverted the borrowers from the formalsystem to the unorganised gold loan marketoperating without a LTV cap. The fall inlending yields will reduce the profitabilityof the business. Considering the fact that the fundamentalsof gold remain high and the long-termtrajectory continues to show an upward

trend, it is good to look at innovativesafeguarding practices against recklesslending by encouraging well-capitalisedNBFCs to extend credit basis depending ontheir capacity.In a liberal market, there are mechanismsto absorb the shocks in price fluctuations.The role played by different players, likebanks, NBFCs, MFs, etc. has to beredefined. What is required are moreplayers and enabling a framework for thepublic to actively participate inthe gold market. The gold loan market inIndia continues to be underpenetrated as ahuge quantity of the metal lies idle inhouseholds.The prevailing economic condition willmake gold loans more attractive for theborrowers and lenders alike. To reach theright segment and leverage the untappedmarket potential, there is a need to re-examine the policies and develop gold as anasset class now more than ever.

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India Far from Making Online Learning the NewNormal Angela Cicily Joseph With the unprecedented disruption to theacademic activities due to the lockdownfollowed by the COVID-19 pandemic, theeducation sector has been thrown into aninadvertent experiment in online learning.As the second-largest market in the world,India’s online education sector was poisedto balloon up to US$ 1.96 billion by 2021.Numerous big-ticket players like the ChanZuckerberg Initiative have profoundlyinvested in the Indian market. Though thismakes the future look bright, it isinundated with challenges like highdropout rates, absence of apt broadbandinfrastructure, lack of standardisation ofonline courses, etc.India has been plagued with the challengeto provide affordable, accessible andquality education for all. With a GrossEnrolment Ratio (GER) of merely 26.3 percent (2019) in higher education, thegovernment is left to plug the demand-supply gap in the system that abandons alarge segment of the eligible populationunable to pursue higher education.A report by KPMG on Online Education inIndia (2017) highlights that with 0.5 millionpaid users, the “reskilling and onlinecertification courses” is the largest categoryin the Indian market. This furthercorroborates Coursera’s analysis of its

database that states 48 per cent of Indianlearners are employed full time. This showsthat these online portals are an importantmedium for reskilling and upskilling. Onthe other hand, the same analysis by KPMGplaces ‘higher education’ as the smallestcategory in the Indian market with only55,000 paid subscribers.Technical modules, notably on ArtificialIntelligence, are the most in demand as perCoursera Learner Trends. Coursera Indiahas observed a huge spike in uptake with3,63,000 new learners and 700 neweducational institutions signing up duringthe lockdown. There has been a significantmonth-on-month growth in enrolments forpublic health content. Globally as well,Coursera has received increased enrolmentsfor epidemic or pandemic related modules.With 0.5 million paid users, it is hard tofathom why India has been so cautious tolet online learning flourish. In an attemptto stop fly-by-night platforms, thegovernment banned online degree coursesin 2015. While the same predicament existswithin the traditional education structure,there have been no bans, only listings by theUGC as “fake university”. Distance learningfrom recognised institutions was allowedbut only through extension campuses orlearning centres. With some terms and

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conditions, this ban was reversed in 2018but none of the 35 institutions that hadsubmitted applications for a licence gotone. Against this backdrop comes the 2020Union Budget announcement that—furtherliberalises India’s online education policy—based on the National Institute RankingFramework, the top 100 institutions will beoffering full-fledged degree courses online.

A fundamental reason for the failure of theearlier policy was the requirement to set uplearning centres in cities where theinstitution does not have a physicalpresence. This criterion failed tocomprehend the disruptive nature thatonline learning could yield, instead ittethered distance education with the brick-and-mortar system much like thetraditional arrangement. The DraftNational Education Policy (DNEP) plans toencourage Type 1 as well as Type 2institutions in facilitating online learningprogrammes. With online portals like StudyWebs of Active-Learning for Young AspiringMinds (SWAYAM), ePathshala and eBasta,the government aims to furtheraccessibility for quality education to all. Asinstitutions rush to teach online to pushahead with the academic calendar, theMinistry of Human Resource Development(MHRD) has vigorously promoted its onlinelearning initiatives to help cater to theneed. VidyaDaan 2.0, a nationalprogramme launched by the government isinviting contributors to develop e-learningcontent. Is this enough to enable theindustry to take off?

MHRD has announced that traffic to itsonline learning platforms has tripled sincethe lockdown was implemented. To cater tothe abrupt spurt in demand, broadbandoperators and services providers areproposing new plans. However, it isambiguous whether the existinginfrastructure can cope with this surge intraffic. While government interventionshave enabled momentum in the onlineeducation industry, lack of accessiblebroadband infrastructure has been apestering issue. The Network ReadinessIndex (2019) positions India at 79attributable to lacking digital bandwidth.NSSO (2015) found that merely 27 per centof Indian households have a member withInternet accessibility and only 47 per cent ofthe said households own a computingdevice. With the broadband networkscarcely connecting 600 corridors, ruralIndia is left with a dismal digital network.

The need of the hour is to increasebroadband penetration throughinterventions like ‘Digital India’ and‘BharatNet’. The creation of a national IPbackbone of this scale requires radicalshifts in regulations. Sanjay Dhotre, MoSfor Communications, Human ResourceDevelopment and Electronics & InformationTechnology, responding to a query in LokSabha, disclosed that merely 2.5 per cent ofthe goal set by BharatNet project has beenachieved (2020). Robust models of a public-private partnership must be pondered uponto create the desired broadband highway.

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However, private sector operators havehitherto seen little value in expandingbroadband infrastructure beyond the topcities. To enable the creation of therequired framework, policies mustforemost expand spectrum assets.Optimising its accessibility by issuingunlicensed spectrum, amending existingallocations, permitting sharing and tradingof the resource could immensely improveinfrastructure creation. With the DefenceMinistry releasing some spectrum, Indiahas taken a few steps in the right direction.Nevertheless, it still requires a progressiveand comprehensive spectrum policy.Trailing behind numerous emergingmarkets w.r.t per capita availability as wellas the cost of spectrum, policymakers mustprioritise maximising spectrum usage.With the new normal, access to the Internetis an essential requirement for all and

countries around the globe are trying totackle this. Millard School District in Delta,US has created hotspots by enablingwireless Internet routers on school buses.This enterprising ‘internet-on-wheels’system may just be the solution we arelooking for.Online learning could bring in the much-needed paradigm shift to ensure access toquality higher education. However, with thelow Internet coverage and lack ofcomputing device ownership, India isunable to ensure education to its eligiblepopulation. Although expanding spectrumassets and amending education policies arewelcome moves, these long-term strategiescannot solve the crisis at hand. Therefore,device ownership and access to the Internetmust be surmounted at the earliest, withoutwhich India cannot learn online.

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The much acclaimed Kerala model of

development should be subject to academic

discussion; kerala has more than 2.5 lakh

households not having TV sets. It reminds me

the debate on the provision of toilet

complexes in schools of #kerala decade ago.

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FOCUS KERALA

Image source: Washington post


Dr D Dhanuraj

COVID-19: How Vulnerable is ‘Kerala Model of

Development’? Dr Jose Sebastian Malayalees have been quite complacentabout the achievements of ‘Kerala Model ofDevelopment’. But the COVID-19 outbreakhas exposed our vulnerabilities. Whileacknowledging and appreciating themassive efforts of our government tominimise the damage, it is also worthwhileto do some soul-searching on the state ofour economy and society.The achievements of the ‘Kerala Model’ aretoo well known to be reiterated. Weinvested our scarce resources in humandevelopment in the 60s and 70s which paidrich dividends in the form of remittances.However, the excessive dependence onremittances has exposed Kerala economy toan economic illness called ‘Dutch disease’.This disease is manifested in the stagnationof our productive sectors. Why to wasteyour time and energy in agriculture orsmall scale industry if you can make morethan double the money by working in Gulfcountries? This is a crude way of expressingthe meaning of the concept of ‘Dutchdisease’.‘Dutch disease’ made our people and policymakers think that Kerala is best suited forthe service sector. Information Technology,Bio-Technology and Tourism Industry aretouted as the sectors where Kerala’s futurelies and the State has invested heavily inthese sectors. The neglect of agriculture

and manufacturing activity has two seriousimplications—the first being food security,and the second the incidence of life-stylediseases. Lifestyle diseases like diabetes,blood pressure and heart disease areobserved even among people in their 30s.Malayalees generally have an aversion tojobs involving physical exertion. This is oneof the reasons why the State is dependenton migrant workers estimated to 25 lakh.It may be just a coincidence that thisdevelopment model has exacerbated thevulnerabilities of Kerala to COVID-19.When we look at the people diagnosed withCOVID-19, we can find that most of themare either Non-Resident Keralites (NRKs) orforeign tourists. The State now finds itdifficult to manage the situation with somany Keralites travelling back fromcountries severely affected by thepandemic. Back home, we have more peoplewith compromised immunity to COVID-19.Heavy dependence on other states for fooditems further aggravates Kerala’svulnerability. We cannot imagine asituation wherein supplies from Tamil Naduare affected.State finances is another source ofvulnerability. Kerala has been a fiscallaggard for the last 38 years. The State hasbeen consistently running revenue deficitssince 1983–84, which indicates that revenue

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expenditures like paying salary and pensionare met out of borrowed funds. A researchby the author has shown that Kerala failedto tap the tremendous potential for publicresource mobilisation offered by externalremittances. During the last 60 years, thepotential for public resource moblisationregistered a tremendous increase, thanks toexternal remittances. But this is notreflected in the fiscal performance of theState. During the first 10 years of Kerala’sformation, i.e., 1957–58 to 1966–67, theState accounted for 4.45 per cent publicresources mobilised by all states puttogether. After 40 years, i.e., during 2007–08 to 2016–17, this figure has onlymarginally increased to 4.5 per cent (seeauthor’s article “Kerala’s Persistent FiscalStress: A Failure in Public ResourceMobilization?” Economic and PoliticalWeekly, June 1, 2019. pp. 32–39).A state which shirks the responsibility ofmobilising public resources should havecontrolled public expenditure, but that isnot Kerala’s cup of tea. High levels ofeducated unemployment which is a fall outof ‘Dutch disease’ puts pressure onsuccessive governments to accommodate asmany people as possible in the governmentsector. In 2017–18, Kerala spent 62.98 percent of the total revenue receipts for salaryand pension compared to our neighbourKarnataka which spent only 23.83 per centon this count. Only 33 per cent of theborrowed funds are used for capitalexpenditure, the rest is used for payingsalary and pension.

The Corona Package: A Damp SquibThe vulnerability of the ‘Kerala Model’ isalso reflected in the Corona packageannounced recently by the Government ofKerala. The COVID-19 outbreak has affectedall sectors of the Kerala economy.Thousands of daily wage earners have losttheir daily bread. Petty traders,agriculturists, dairy, poultry and fishfarmers have suffered heavy losses. Onewould have expected the government tocome out with a package to give an impetusto economic activities across the State. Butthe Rs. 20,000 crore package announced bythe State Government belies suchexpectations. Free distribution of rice andwheat through the public distributionsystem, the Rs. 2000 crore employmentguarantee scheme to be implemented inApril and May and Rs. 2000 crore loan toKudumbashree fall under this category.There is nothing new in the timely disbursalof welfare pensions announced as part ofthe package. The single major component ofthe package is clearing the arrearsamounting to Rs. 14,000 crore tocontractors, individuals and families,expecting that this amount will come backto the local markets in the form ofexpenditure and will have some impact onthe trade and transport sectors.The package has completely ignored theclass of people who try to take ownership oftheir life—the self-employed people in theagricultural and industrial sectors. Agovernment whose only concern is keepingthe service organisations in good shape

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cannot be expected to take drasticmeasures. What prevented the governmentfrom announcing a 20 per cent cut in salaryand pensions across the board? This wouldhave saved Rs. 10,000 crores which couldhave been used for providing support tothose in productive sectors. But agovernment having an eye on the 2021

elections cannot be expected to have thatkind of political will.To summarise, in order to save the verysame ‘Kerala Model’, we have got to have afresh look at it. The COVID-19 has providedthat rare opportunity to all well-meaningMalayalees.

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COVID 19: A Time to Rethink Kerala’s Liquor Policy Rahul V Kumar Liquor dependence is not just a problem ofthe consumers in Kerala, but a problem ofthe State government too. Each time,during a crisis, and many times evenwithout a crisis, any policy on liquor hasoften led to an exhibition of multiplewithdrawal symptoms by both theconsumers and the State. Just as the Stategovernment plans mediation and de-addiction centres for individuals, it alsoneeds to consider de-addicting itself fromexcessive dependence on liquor. Theproblem presented by Kerala is simple.Excessive dependence on liquor as a sourceof revenue by the State has led to the sectorbeing a favoured goose laying golden eggs.In addition, the State had developed acomplacency after monopolising the sectorand trying to squeeze the consumers withhigh tax rates. All this turned upside downwhen ultimately a crisis like COVID-19challenged this complacency. Time is nowripe for Kerala to develop a policy to avoidpanic responses during a crisis.At present, the State of Kerala is dealingwith the unprecedented COVID-19pandemic on a war footing. The number oftested individuals and the number of casesthat are positive in Kerala are one of thehighest in India. As of now, two deathswere reported and approximately 250 pluscases were tested positive. The numbers arebound to increase. Amidst this, Kerala is

also trying to deal with a financial crisis.The impact on the economy is likely to besevere following the current crisis,considering the additional funds requiredto wither the pandemic. Sale of liquor, oneof the major revenue sources of the State,has also been curtailed given theprohibitory sanctions and closing down ofoutlets. There are approximately 301 liquoroutlets across 14 districts controlled by theState and numerous bars and hotels andbeer parlours selling liquor. The revenuefrom the sale of liquor has been close to Rs14,000 crore for Kerala during the financialyear 2018-19. During the last four years, itwas approximately Rs 45,000 crore. Thisunsurprisingly made the governmentconsider it as an essential commodityduring the initial phase of the pandemic.The government had to revoke its stanceand consider withdrawing liquor as anessential commodity amidst protests toshut these outlets during the lockdown.However, what worried policy makers wasthat the death toll from the lack ofavailability of liquor (reportedly 9) has beenmore than the number of people who diedfrom COVID-19 in the State. Most of theliquor related deaths were suicides(although it should be noted that the Statehas been in the forefront in the reportednumber of suicides in India). Kerala MentalHealth Survey reported that approximately

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0.6 per cent of the population in Kerala isliquor dependent. This counts to nearly2,00,000 people. The suicides reportedamong the addicts in the present situationare only a very small per cent of the totalnumber of liquor dependents(approximately 0.0035 per cent). This is notmeant to reduce deaths to fractions or tomake them seem trivial. However, ithighlights that the State government’sdecision to improve liquor availabilitythrough medical certificates to dependentadults based on these numbers does not reston a firm footing. In addition, there arealso other prominent health issues faced byindividuals which remain forgotten duringthese discussions.Given these facts, three questions loomlarge. Here, an attempt is made tounderstand these questions and providepossible answers to them.First, have these sanctions during thepandemic really reduced the availability ofliquor in the State? The best hypothesiswould be based on an analogy with the Stateof Gujarat. As in the case of Gujarat, whichhas apparently been a dry state on paper forso long, the lockdown in Kerala has onlyproduced an impression of liquorunavailability. While production seemed tohave stopped, the unsold reserves indicateproduct availability and hence a blackmarket for these products. Bootlegging isalso rampant.Second, who are the individuals affected bythe lack of availability of liquor? It has beenreported that black marketers in the Statecharge exorbitant prices from the

consumers. The lockdown has affected theprice mechanism where the supplier nowdecides the price and the demander isobliged to pay. The suicides reported arelikely to be extreme cases where thedemanders were driven to such a state whentheir access to liquor was restricted byunaffordable prices.Third, do we need to prioritise public policyonly when a crisis happens or should wetake into account the effects of excessivedependence and monopolising of specificsectors by the State even before a crisisoccurs? This is a serious question which ourState government should consider. Thegovernment needs to treat its withdrawalsymptoms immediately rather than at alater stage when another crisis pops up. Itshould slowly withdraw from its overdependence on alcohol and find a bettersource of revenue. A near-term policyshould orient the State towards such anaction.The big question is who needs to free itselffrom liquor addiction: the individual or theState? If the State is serious about thisissue, it needs to create a more competitiveenvironment for business bydemonopolising the liquor industry. TheState government can do better byenforcing rules which provide affordableand quality products to the consumers in acompetitive market environment and allowthem to choose. Until this is done,consumers need to be expectant and wary offurther knee-jerk reactions from themonopolist (State) in the long-run.

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Inward remittances and the upcoming crisis Nila Nair From the time indentured labourers weresent to Britain during the colonial rule andafter the great partition, India has had along relationship with migration. Today,Indian diaspora is the largest in the world,spread over more than 110 countries. Thereare 30 million Indians overseas and Indiawas the top recipient of remittances in 2018with US$ 79 billion inward remittance.These millions of people sending billions ofdollars as remittances to their families havehelped the developing countries includingIndia as it has become an unavoidablesource of their well-being and the nationalincome.Trends in Migration and Remittances toIndiaThe leading states in India for migrationare Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, TamilNadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. Thesestates account for more than 80 per cent of

India’s total remittances, with Keralahaving the highest i.e., 19 per cent. UttarPradesh has the most number of migrantsfollowed by Bihar. The increase inmigration from these states, which has nowsurpassed other progressive states likeKerala and Karnataka, can be a result of thesudden surge in their population andincrease in the demand for work. Thecurrent population of migrants in selectcountries is given below.Undoubtedly, the UAE has the largest shareof migrants from India, followed by SaudiArabia. India’s relationship with the UAEand the Gulf countries goes long back andthe flow of migration from Kerala to thesecountries during the 1970s and 80s leadingto the “Gulf Boom” has strengthened it.Kerala’s economy is particularly dependenton foreign remittances and has been in theforefront of the State’s economic growth. In

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2003, remittances were 1.74 per cent higherthan the State revenue receipts.Remittances from abroad have proved abetter source for the poor than any foreignaids or investments as they directly receivecash for their daily expenses and provideprotection against emergencies. Before theGulf Boom, Kerala was known for itsparadoxical state of being with high humandevelopment but a low economic growth.This has changed from the 1980s as a resultof a large inflow of remittances andeconomic reforms. It is also argued that theper capita income of Kerala is much higherthan the national average mainly because ofthe remittance flow.While Indian economy as a whole is notdependent on remittances from abroad,states like Kerala and Punjab are among themost remittance-dependent economies inthe world. The migration from Punjabfocused on the developed westerncountries, especially Canada; whereasKerala was an important labour supplier tothe Middle East. Kerala and Punjab show acontradictory pattern of migration.Migration from Kerala tends to be for alimited period with high remittances;whereas for Punjab, most of the people whomigrate want to be settled abroad and theydo not send home money in the samemanner as Kerala. A permanent familymigration through the process of chainmigration, especially in the case of the JatSikhs, has traditionally been the way ofPunjab; while about 90 per cent of migrantsfrom Kerala went to the Gulf countries toprovide temporary labour.

The construction, manufacturing and retailsectors represent 85 per cent of theunskilled and semi-skilled labour migrantsfrom India, while the rest are focused onhealthcare, domestic and unclassifiedworkers. Majority of the migrants from thestates of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar andRajasthan are unskilled and work in theconstruction and retail industries. Theirjobs include masonry, carpentry, deliveryservices, retail clerks, etc. A large portionof the migrants from Andhra Pradesh,Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Keralaconstitutes semi-skilled workers employedin the healthcare, retail and manufacturingsectors. Skilled workers from states likeMaharashtra and Karnataka, on the otherhand, work in the IT sector overseas. Themass migration from India constitutedmajorly of unskilled and semi-skilledworkers for a long time until the IT sectorboom in the 1990s. Indian migration to theUnited States doubled during this time withthe use of H1-B visas. Even in Gulfcountries, a new class of highly skilledprofessional Indian workers are increasingtoday.According to the World Bank, 82 per cent ofthe households in India receivedremittances in cash, 15 per cent as chequesor draft and 2 per cent as money orders.RBI suggests that more than half of suchremittances are utilised for familymaintenance, 20 per cent as bank depositsand 7 per cent for securing land, property,securities, etc. A study conducted by GrantThornton has found that in states likeKerala and Tamil Nadu, 25 per cent of the

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From this point, private transfers andremittances became an importantconstituent of India’s Balance of Paymentsand since the 1990s, Indians workingoverseas have been the world’s topremitters consistently. Until recently,remittances to India have proven to be oneof the most stable forms of economic flowsto the country.The “Great Homecoming” and the PathForwardThe looming global financial crisis in lightof the COVID-19 pandemic has alreadyaffected the world with the start of arecession. The great lockdown adding to theeconomic crisis at hand has stranded lakhsof migrants in more than 100 countriesworldwide. The Department of Non-Resident Keralites (NoRKs) has alreadycommenced online registration for peoplestranded abroad due to the ban oninternational flights. More than 3.4 lakhhave already registered within days of itscommencement. Majority of the migrantlabourers, especially those in the unskilledand semi-skilled sector, will be rendered

remittance received is used for debtrepayment after household consumption. InOrissa, 11 per cent is used for marriagesand in the North-east states and Jammuand Kashmir, 55 per cent of the remittanceis used for the purpose of education. Goa,on the other hand, uses 39 per cent of theremittance for savings and investmentactivities. Thus, the diversity that makesthe country unite can also be seen in themigration and remittance trend of differentstates.The UAE was the top remitter to India forthe past few years followed by the USA. TheGulf countries together contribute morethan half of the remittance to the country.India experienced a surge in the flow ofremittance after the liberalisation policy of1991, widely known as India’s secondindependence. This accelerated theintegration of India into the world economyopening up vibrant opportunities and jobsabroad. The new economic policy coupledwith the establishment of the marketexchange rate in 1993 reduced the appeal ofsending money through hawala networks.

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jobless. The “great homecoming” of thesemigrants will adversely affect the economyas unemployment will increase and theeconomically vulnerable will be pushed intopoverty. The World Bank President DavidMalpass has stated that the recession willtake a severe toll on the ability of migrantsto send money home and the remittance toIndia will witness a sharp decline of 23 percent to US $ 64 billion in this year.Economies dependent on remittances likeKerala will have to face a huge drought inits income as lakhs of migrants are waitingto return home. The internal migrants inthe country might face a largerunemployment crisis as they will bereturning back to their home states. At thesame time, pessimism and uncertainty arelooming over the market and will continueto be so for quite some time.What can be done to help the situation? Themost important task at hand is to handlethe reverse migration in the country. Thereturning migrants will be more skilled interms of their work experience abroad andtherefore harnessing their potential canprove to be beneficial for the economy.Along with the registrations to return backto the country, websites can be equippedfor profiling the migrants and reviewingtheir skillsets and past jobs. This portal canbe used by private employers in the countryand also by the government to mobilisepotential job opportunities for thereturnees. Most of the unskilled and semi-skilled migrant workers will be returning to

their home states like Uttar Pradesh,Punjab, Kerala, etc. The extent of returnmigration will be different for differentstates. States like Kerala, where theinterstate migrants have dominatedunskilled and semi-skilled markets untilrecently, witnessed a mass exodus of thesemigrants to their homeland, creating ashortage of workforce in the host state. Theoverseas returnees can marginally fill thisgap. They can also be incentivised informing self-help groups (SHGs) to findjobs and pool resources. They can also beencouraged to start small-scale businessesand enterprises of their choice.In order to recover, the government mustinvest in projects that create moreemployment, such as an expansionary fiscalpolicy with increased government spending.Demand revival will be yet another crucialstep in this process and for the demand tobe improved, people should have sufficientdisposable income. Thus, easing the taxliabilities, providing unemploymentallowance for poor labourers, strengtheningpolicies like MGNREGA, providingmoratorium for repayment of loans andlending to MSMEs will be vital to rejuvenatethe economy. The history of migration andremittance to India are taking a huge turnhere. The repercussions of this economicpandemic will take a heavy toll on millionsof lives unless there is quick and effectiveactions from both the people and thegovernments.

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The real concern here is, even if the data is

secured by highly sophisticated and

centralised mechanisms, the privacy can said

to be breached if data is put to inappropriate

use. A deviation from the original intent of

data collection is a breach of privacy.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 20

DATA &TECH

Image source: computerworld.com


Dr Harisankar K Sathyapalan

Is there a trade-off between life and privacy amid a

pandemic?

Dr Harisankar K. Sathyapalan As we grapple with a global pandemic,governments across the world increasinglyrely on information technology to advancetheir fight against the virus. From contacttracing to quarantining selfies, smartphoneapplications have started determining thecourse of public health actions. Naturally,debates on the use (and misuse) ofsurveillance data have re-emerged in thepublic sphere. Unlike normal times, wherethe concerns of data privacy conflict withindividual convenience (of using a creditcard or Facebook), times of crisis bringpressing issues like national security to thefore. The present controversies relating tothe collection and processing of health datato fight coronavirus takes this issue to adifferent level. It represents a tensionbetween two fundamental rights: the rightto life and right to privacy.Though we may engage in political debateson this conundrum, a trade-off between thetwo is pointless in terms of the law. As theSupreme Court of India held in thePuttaswamy verdict, the right to privacy isa fundamental right enshrined under Art 21of the Constitution which guarantees theright to life and personal liberty. Further,in the absence of a defined hierarchy amongthe two, political arguments championingthe protection of life at the expense ofindividual privacy is problematic. Thoughgovernments hold the considerable public

authority to keep certain rights (such asfreedom of movement) under control duringan emergency, keeping a basic human rightsuch as privacy at bay is questionable. Thereal danger is the ‘emergency’ track recordof our institutions of last resort. Yes, it ischallenging to rely on a deferentialjudiciary to protect a seemingly weakerright at a time of crisis. Sadly, justices ofthe ilk of H.R Khanna is in short supplythese days.

Is a balancing act possible?

For bringing the right balance, the apparentconflict for supremacy among the tworights needs analysis through the prism ofpolitical philosophy. More specifically, a re-look at the theory of social contract – thatdescribes the relationship between society(state) and its members (individuals) – andthe reasons why individuals consent toforgo some of their freedoms as a trade-offfor living in societies will help us to analysethe debate in a structured manner. Theclaim is not that a theory in itself will settlethe conundrum; rather, the right-dutyequilibrium that the social contractenvisages will help us to resolve it.Two general aspects of the data protectionlaws reflect this right-duty framework of asocial contract. First, notwithstanding theconsent requirement – that data processingis prohibited unless the individual gives afree and informed consent – governments

JUNE 2020 PAGE 21


have a leeway to collect data in anextraordinary situation. While Europe’sGeneral Data Protection Regulation usesthe idea of ‘public interest’ to do away withindividual consent requirement, India’sforthcoming law on data protection is moregermane to the present context. Accordingto the Personal Data Protection Bill, whenState undertakes legally prescribedfunctions “to respond to any medicalemergency” or “to provide health servicesduring an epidemic,” the consent is notrequired. This power, however, is notabsolute. There is a corresponding dutyimposed on the State, which is the secondtenet of the social contract.A fiduciary duty – the higher standard ofcare set by law – binds the State here. Thisobligation is manifested in the PersonalData Protection Bill when it defines the‘entity (including the State) that determinesthe purpose and means’ of the processing ofdata pertinently as “data fiduciary”. Thus, agovernment’s right to impose restrictivemeasures and obtain health data, and thecorresponding duty of the individual tocomply, stems from a trust that individualsplace on the government. However, quiteunfortunately, we lack the necessary legalframework to ensure this trust.

In search of an ideal framework

Despite all the security measures thatgovernments put in place, privacy can stillbe said to be breached if a database is putto inappropriate use. For instance, adeviation from the original intent of datacollection is a breach of privacy, as the

mandate of Aadhar Card as a citizenidentity digressed from its primarypurpose. If the recorded history of suchdeviations, known as “function creeps”, isto be believed, a presumption that thepresent COVID-related health data analysiswill end with the pandemic is absurd. Asevidence shows, the circumstances offunction creep could be so disingenuous,even the courts of law may find ituninterpretable. Again, the lack of a robustdata protection law makes the scenario evenworse.We need a well-balanced strategy, whichcan help us create an ‘anti-virus’ nation andat the same time prevent it from becoming a‘Big Brother’. Such a strategy must envisagedata-driven public policies are capable ofensuring both healthcare and data privacy.For that, we require, not just scientists butdata scientists, particularly cyber forensicexperts, to ensure that the data is notmishandled or disseminated against thepurpose for which it is collected. A datascience-based framework will not onlystrengthen the healthcare system but alsoenable the governments to set the seal onthe privacy of health data. It is theknowledge and skill of policymakers inusing and decoding the data scientificallythat is going to play a vital role in thatframework. Thus, instead of prioritizingbetween health and privacy, we should beable to reinforce the public health system bybuilding the capacity of policymakers inunderstanding data science and engagingmore data scientists in the policy space.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 22


A Review of Personal Data Protection Bill 2019 in

the Context of Sprinklr Debate Nithin Ramakrishnan Whether the personal data of the citizens,especially the health data, can betransferred without their consent to foreigncompanies? Is there a necessity for tenderprocedures when free services are offeredto the government in emergency scenarios?These are the main questions related to lawconnecting the recent Sprinklr controversy,which will be answered within the existingframework of law, in proper forums.However, it is also important to considerthis context for reviewing the Personal DataProtection Bill 2019 (PDP Bill 2019), whichmay soon become a law in the near future.This article attempts to look at theprovisions of the proposed Bill in this light.In other words, the attempt is not to justifyany side of the issue using a draft bill,which would be redundant.The Sprinklr issue, in short, is all about theKerala Government’s sharing ofinformation of COVID suspected patientsunder surveillance with a US-basedsoftware company, in order to make senseof the data collected as a part of mitigationefforts. While the opposition parties worryabout the serious breach of privacy, thethreat of data theft and the territorialjurisdiction over the company, the standtaken by the government is that thephysical storage of data is still within

India. Also, the government contends thatas soon as the government sends notice tostop the services, Sprinklr would erase thedata it is handling and there shall be noother use of such data other than forCOVID-19 mitigation purposes by theGovernment of Kerala. Here comes thequestion, what would have been thesituation if the Centre had passed the PDPBill in 2019? This would be an interestinganalysis to get an estimate of the provisionsof the Bill and probable consequences.Firstly, whether any event of sharing of theinformation of people without their consentby the government to a private businessconcern is a breach of privacy? The answeris no. According to Section 12(1)(e) of theproposed Bill, personal data may beprocessed by the government withoutconsent to undertake any measure toprovide medical treatment or healthservices to any individual during anepidemic, outbreak of a disease or any otherthreat to public health. Further for thepurposes of the processing, the governmentmay transfer it to any third-party dataprocessor (Section 31). The only rider to thecase presented above is the question ofnecessity upon which Section 12 rests. Inother words, as per the said provisions, thegovernment can share the information in

JUNE 2020 PAGE 23


such emergency situations, provided itproves that it was necessary to process thedata for the purpose. Sharing, therefore, isnot a concern at all. Now, given thesituation, being a pandemic not onlyaffecting public health but also the globaleconomy, the question of necessity may beeasily satisfied. But the glaring loophole inthe 2019 Bill, which this event reminds, isthat there is no regulation as to whom thedata may be shared by the government forprocessing. No provision in the Bill laysdown the criteria for choosing a processorfor the purposes of the government.Herecomes the second importantquestion,whether the sharing of theinformation to a foreign private concern islegal? The answer may come as a surprise—it is legal according to Sections 33 read with34, although the provision requires theCentral Government in consultation withthe proposed Data Protection Authority(DPA) to notify specific purposes andtransactions for which cross-border datatransfer can be undertaken. There is asignificant difference between Sections 12and 33. There is no question of necessitycoming into discussion in case of cross-border data transfer provided thereinSection 33. Section 33 simply says thatsubject to the conditions under sub-section(1) of section 34, the sensitive personal datamay be transferred outside India, with onecondition that such data shall continue tobe stored in India. Hence, there cannot be aquestion based on the principle of necessitywhether there was a need to involve a

‘foreign’ entity in the present case.Precisely, the question why not preferIndian firms instead is not relevant in viewof Section 33. However, it is far-fetched toclaim that there should be a specificnecessity to transfer data to a foreignprocessor within the existing proposal.Another important concern is regarding theanonymisation of the data shared amongstmultiple processors and handlers, i.e., hadthe Kerala Government anonymised the saiddata, the sharing would have been not amajor issue. However, the concern here iswhat are the provisions of the PDP Bill 2019dealing with it? Interestingly,anonymisation of data is not found withinthe identified obligations of data fiduciaryand data processor. Data Fiduciary is theentity or person who determines thepurpose and means of processing personaldata, while data processor is the one whoprocesses personal data on behalf of a datafiduciary (Section 3(13) and 3(15),respectively). In the present case, thefiduciary is Kerala Government, whereasSprinklr is the processor. It is also worthnoting, in this context, that the Bill doesnot extend statutory liabilities to all thosewho process, handle or receive personaldata. The Bill imposes liabilities only on thedata fiduciaries and not on the dataprocessors. This means the liability of theprocessor according to the proposed Bill islimited by the contract signed by theprocessor with the fiduciary. Theimplication of the present case is that anyclaims of an aggrieved person has to be

JUNE 2020 PAGE 24


primarily directed against the State. TheEuropean Union General Data ProtectionRegulations 2016 (EU GDPR) stipulates thatdata controllers (fiduciaries in our case)cannot enter into contract with processorswhich do not meet the responsibilitiesimposed by the EU GDPR on thecontrollers. Such a provision isconspicuously absent in the Indian version.It is also important to note that Section38(1)(b) in the proposed Bill states that theDPA may exempt research, archiving orstatistical purposes from the application ofany of the provisions of the Act, if satisfiedthat the purposes of processing cannot beachieved if the personal data isanonymised.The final question which rings the bell isconcerning the dispute resolution betweenthe individuals whose data is shared andthe fiduciaries who collect them. The Billrequires the data fiduciaries to appointinternal personnel as Data ProtectionOfficers (DPO) and they will be the primaryofficers in-charge of handling concerns andcomplaints filed by the individuals. The Billprovides 30 days for the DPO to take actionon any requests or complaints. Only afterexhausting this option, an aggrieved personmay approach the adjudicator to beappointed by the proposed DPA. Also, if notsatisfied with the adjudicator’s decision,the complainant may appeal to theAppellate Tribunal proposed in the Bill.However, the Bill forgets to mention theadministrative jurisdiction of theadjudicator or the geographical locations of

the benches of the Appellate Tribunal.Access to justice is, therefore, a criticalchallenge to a common man under theproposed Bill. Jurisdiction of the courts isseriously limited under Section 77. Imaginethe plight of an individual who will have totravel for hours just to reach theadjudicator’s office. Not to mention theabsence of the provisional measurespending action from the DPO, in the Bill.This suggests that while a person may beaware of a continuing compromise of herprivacy, she may not be able to stop itimmediately. Also, users who are not tech-savvy may be left without any reliable andimmediate assistance from the law orauthorities.Above all, there is a serious issue of Centre-State relations in the proposed Bill. Thepowers are concentrated at the Centre andit is doubtful whether state governmentsget a minimal say in the implementation ofthe proposed law. The Bill may also raise aconcern whether the state governmentswould have any discretion left to actpromptly and swiftly as in the present case.The states and individuals are certainlyunderrepresented in the Bill. The JointParliamentary Committee (JPC) is presentlyanalysing the Bill that was introduced in theLok Sabha on December 11, 2019 and itsreport is pending. While the businessenterprises and techies are continuing tolobby for changes in the provisions of theBill and have also successfully createdprecedents in the COVID -19 mitigation, it isimportant to discuss what a common man

JUNE 2020 PAGE 25


has in the Bill and what he can expect fromthe lawmakers. We must persuade thegovernment to expand the access to justiceat district or sub-district levels, and tointroduce provisional remedies for pendingcases with the DPO or DPA. This is theminimum we should demand. Further, weshould convince the parliamentarians toestablish statutory liabilities on all thosewho receive or handle data, to establish

guidelines on third party processing by thegovernments and for the decentralisation ofpowers to the state governments. We mustlook for guarantees for the above in theproposed legislation and must notcompromise on the position that these maybe laid down as administrative orders on alater stage. The COVID-19 mitigation andSprinklr issue are lessons to be learned.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 26


How Geographical Mapping Is Helping India In Its

Fight Against COVID-19 Nissy Solomon From contact tracing to creating bufferzones around #COVID19 clusters, India isusing mapping and location-trackingtechnology to fight the pandemic. Mapshave been used to assess and tackle diseasesat least since the 1850 cholera outbreak inLondon. IndiaSpend looks at how mappingthe disease data through geographicinformation system (GIS) can assistpolicymakers and the authorities duringoutbreaks, and what privacy concerns mustinform such mapping.GIS is a system designed to capture andanalyse data using spatial trends. In thecontext of disease surveillance andmonitoring, it integrates data such as thearea of outbreak, population health andavailable infrastructure in the area toidentify the population at risk. In recentyears, GIS has been used to study andtackle several communicable and non-communicable diseases.As of 8.00 a.m. on April 10, 2020, India hasdetected 6,412 cases of COVID-19, thedisease caused by the novel coronavirusnamed SARS-CoV-2, according toCoronavirus Monitor, a HealthCheckdatabase. While 504 (7.9%) patients havebeen discharged, 199 (3.1%) have died.Globally, 1.6 million cases have beendetected, of which more than 350,000 have

recovered and more than 95,000 have died,according to Johns Hopkins CoronavirusResource Center.How India is using location data The Centre has tested the COVID-19Quarantine Alert System (CQAS), anapplication that uses telecom data totrigger emails and text-message alerts tothe authorities if a person has jumpedquarantine, as The Hindu reported on April3, 2020. “The data collected shall be usedonly for the purpose of Health Managementin the context of COVID-19 and is strictlynot for any other purposes,” the report said,citing the standard operating procedure.“Any violation in this regard would attractpenal provisions under the relevant laws.”Earlier, the Kerala State DisasterManagement Authority and healthdepartment officials had begun collatingdisease surveillance data separately–withprimary and secondary contacts ofconfirmed patients–traced and identifiedon a live geo-map, as the news channelNDTV reported on March 12, 2020. Thisallows officials to identify high-risk zonesto activate containment measures. Further,the state is adding layers such as theavailability of laboratory facilities andisolation wards in these areas.O n M a r c h 2 7 , 2 0 2 0 , t h e G u j a r a t

JUNE 2020 PAGE 27


https://corona.health-check.in/

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-geo-fencing-app-will-be-used-to-locate-quarantine-violators/article31241055.ece?utm_source=pushnotifications&utm_campaign=pushnotifications&utm_medium=ALL_USER

https://www.ndtv.com/kerala-news/coronavirus-kerala-on-war-footing-kerala-releases-route-map-of-coronavirus-positive-cases-2193402

government launched a GIS-based mobileapplication to monitor the movement ofthose advised to be home-quarantined.Similar to the Centre’s CQAS app, it alertsauthorities if the person being monitoredleaves quarantine. The Srinagar district hadalso announced plans to undertake GISmapping of all cases including suspects,those under surveillance, quarantined andisolated, according to this March 17,2020, report.The Telangana government was alsodeploying geo-location technology to trackover 25,000 people under home-quarantineusing a COVID-19 monitoring system,according to this April 1, 2020, report inIANS, the news agency, published in themagazine Outlook. The state was alreadyusing ‘TSCop’, an app developed by theTelangana police, to geotag houses offoreign returnees, the report said. Inneighbouring Andhra Pradesh, thegovernment is using two tech toolsdeveloped by the State DisasterManagement Authority to track each personin home-quarantine, and for contact-tracing of positive cases, the report said.Punjab is also using cellphone dataincluding call records and GPS to enforcelockdown, ensure home delivery ofgroceries, and for contact-tracing, as TheIndian Express reported on April 10, 2020.Tracking in other countries Health officials in South Korea retracedpatients’ movements using security camerafootage, credit card records, and GPS datafrom their cars and cellphones, The New

York Times reported on March 23, 2020.Citizens are alerted of new cases, withwebsites and apps detailing hour-by-hourtimelines of infected people’s travel. Peoplewho believe they may have crossed pathswith a patient are urged to report to testingcenters. A separate app tracks those underquarantine.Israel has allowed its intelligence agency totrack mobile phones of confirmed orsuspected patients. “We’ll deploy measureswe’ve only previously deployed againstterrorists,” the country’s prime ministerBenjamin Netanyahu said. “Some of thesewill be invasive and infringe on the privacyof those affected. We must adopt a newroutine.”In China, entering one’s apartmentcompound or workplace requires scanning aQR code, writing down one’s name and IDnumber, temperature and recent travelhistory, as The Guardian reported in March2020. Telecom operators track people’smovements, some cities are offeringrewards for informing on sick neighbours,and Chinese companies are rolling outfacial recognition technology that candetect elevated temperatures in a crowd orflag citizens not wearing a face mask.Austria and Belgium are using anonymiseddata from telecom operators for contact-tracing and monitoring those quarantined.Healthmap–developed by Boston Children’sHospital–collates data from validated alertsfrom official sites for surveillance ofemerging disease. Data ranging from air-ticketing and online networks tracking

JUNE 2020 PAGE 28


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/gujarat-launches-coronavirus-app-to-track-home-quarantined-persons/articleshow/74848344.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/srinagar-admin-resorts-to-shutdown-to-shield-valley-from-corona/1769133

https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/telugu-states-using-technology-to-track-those-in-home-quarantine/1787926

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/chandigarh/punjab-uses-cell-phone-data-to-fence-people-in-quarantine-coronavirus-track-contacts-6355781/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-flatten-curve.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-israel-government-track-patients-quarantine-2020-3?r=US&IR=T&_ga=2.243823619.763093093.1586413254-156785099.1585540497

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/09/the-new-normal-chinas-excessive-coronavirus-public-monitoring-could-be-here-to-stay

https://www.businessinsider.in/slideshows/miscellaneous/10-countries-are-now-tracking-phone-data-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-heralds-a-massive-increase-in-surveillance/germany-is-modeling-how-people-are-moving-around/slideshow/74744851.cms

https://accelerator.childrenshospital.org/about/innovationplatforms/healthmap/

In 1854, John Snow investigated the source of a cholera outbreak in London using a hand-

drawn map. His map overlay the locations of cholera deaths with information on public

water supplies. The subsequent removal of the pump handle at a pump in central

London’s Broad Street reduced incidence.

In 2013, the African country of Cameroon had a poliovirus outbreak. The Ministry of

Public Health’s Expanded Programme on Immunisation mapped the poliovirus using GIS

to estimate the disease’s reach and determine the action required to contain further

spread. Officials mapped district boundaries and gathered data on settlements, hospitals

and population to visualise the outbreak in its geographic context.

In 1987, British geographer Stan Openshaw used GIS to analyse paediatric leukaemia

clusters in the North of England. In his paper titled ‘Investigation of leukaemia clusters

by use of a Geographic Analysis Machine’, he assessed whether living in close proximity to

a nuclear facility posed a higher risk of paediatric cancer. Using geographic information

tools alone would not be enough to identify the causes of leukaemia but the visual

patterns provide cues for policymakers to undertake further research, he warned.

GIS was also used during the Eloba and SARS outbreaks for contact-tracing and assessing

high-risk zones. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration used GIS to forecast

risk by modelling the conditions that create conducive habitats for the aedes aegypti, the

virus-carrying mosquito.

Mapping in past outbreaks

disease outbreaks in animals are used totrack any unusual events and possibleoutbreaks. For COVID-19, Healthmap offersan interactive map, which includes afeature to show “outbreaks near me”–informing users about the diseasetransmission in their vicinity.Privacy concerns “The use of surveillance technologies,although necessary during the ongoingpandemic, has again started the long-standing debates on balancing privacy andsecurity,” said Kazim Rizvi, foundingdirector of The Dialogue, a think-tankworking in the intersection of technologyand public policy. “It is important that thesurveillance technologies should observethe tests laid down by the Apex Court in the

Puttaswamy judgment (2017).”The judgment permits surveillance providedthat it is authorised by law, and its use isnecessary and proportionate to the harmexpected, he said, adding that acomprehensive surveillance law must keepprivacy at the heart.The use of spatial technologies andmapping for surveillance requires dataclassified as personally identifiableinformation. Concepts such as consent andpersonal data, for instance, are not definedin the Information Technology Act, 2000,rules framed under which (the InformationTechnology (Reasonable Security Practicesand Procedures and Sensitive Personal Dataor Information) Rules of 2011) regulate dataprotection in the country.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 29


https://www.wired.com/2009/09/0908london-cholera-pump/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5853277/

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2893085

https://www.esri.com/about/newsroom/blog/maps-that-mitigate-epidemics/

https://thedialogue.co/

https://www.indiaspend.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Justice_K.S.PuttaswamyRetd_..._vs_Union_Of_India_And_Ors._on_24_August_2017.pdf

https://meity.gov.in/writereaddata/files/itbill2000.pdf

https://www.wipo.int/edocs/lexdocs/laws/en/in/in098en.pdf

To rectify this, the Personal Data ProtectionBill was introduced in the Lok Sabha (lowerhouse of parliament) on December 11, 2019.It has been referred to a joint parliamentarycommittee for examination, but falls shortin addressing privacy and accountability,Rizvi said. The Bill does not provide for anindependent data protection authority that

could look into the privacy concerns, headded.“Authorising unregulated surveillancemight lead to data discrimination in whichmarginalised community (sic) could befurther excluded due to non-transparentalgorithmic processes,” Rizvi said.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 30


https://meity.gov.in/writereaddata/files/Personal_Data_Protection_Bill,2018.pdf

As the number of #COVID19 cases nearing 2

lakhs & growth around 4.6%, it is important

to see how stressed healthcare infrastructure

in each state would be in terms of number

of hospitals & beds (pvt+public). 10K+ daily

numbers will be here in less than a week

time.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 31

HEALTHSYSTEMS

Image source: Economics Times


Dr Rijo M John

India’s Healthcare System and Response to

COVID-19 Dr Swapna Jambhekar The situation has never been so fluid. Thenumber of COVID-19 cases is constantlychanging and as new data is collected,responses to the pandemic are evolving. Itis still too early to comment on or analyseeither the numbers or where this will allend. However, it is certainly a ripe time tolook at India’s healthcare system as itreveals itself today in the face of thecoronavirus emergency.A TEDx talk by Bill Gates of 2015 is makingthe rounds on social media. In his talk,Gates describes how health systems need togear up for future epidemics in aninterconnected world. This would be anagile health system which works withmilitary discipline and reaches out to eventhe most remote corners. The ongoingCOVID-19 pandemic has brought into sharpfocus the health systems around the worldand our health system is no exception.What is a health system or healthcaresystem? A health system or healthcaresystem includes the organisation, financingand provision of healthcare services to apopulation. This encompasses all thepersonnel, institutions and resources thatare necessary to achieve the desired healthoutcomes for that population.Supplementary to these are the policies,regulations and laws that enable and govern

the functioning of different components ofthe system. All countries design anddevelop health systems that suit theircontext and available resources.In India, the health system evolved from theBhore Committee Report, 1946. The right tolife is enshrined in the Constitution ofIndia. It places an obligation on theGovernment to provide health care to itscitizens. It places health in the State list ofsubjects with the onus on States, but theCentre also spends on health throughcentrally-funded schemes like the NationalHealth Mission (NHM).The local self-government institutions arealso involved. We have a three-tier publichealth system for providing primary (firstpoint of contact for the patient), secondary(provided by a specialist on referral fromprimary care provider) and tertiary (highlyspecialised medical care) care. Themanifestations of this are the sub-centres,primary health centres, community healthcentres, first referral units, sub-districthospitals, district hospitals and medicalcolleges.Private practitioners and hospitals are alsoa part of the health system and are said toprovide 80 per cent outpatient and 60 percent of inpatient care. This also includesprivate labs, pharmacies, diagnostic

JUNE 2020 PAGE 32


https://international.commonwealthfund.org/countries/india/

centres, blood banks, ambulance services,etc. Confounding policies, lack ofregulation or overregulation andoverlapping authorities have resulted inskewed distribution of healthcare facilitiesacross and within the states, with a shift offocus from primary to tertiary and more.The rural-urban divide is never morepronounced than in healthcare availability,quality and costs. This provides thebackground for the analysis of India’sresponse to the pandemic.The initial reported cases were those whohad come back after visiting countrieswhere the infection was already assumingepidemic proportions. Naturally, thesecases were identified in metro/tier 1 citieswherein multi-speciality hospitals (bothpublic and private) are located, well-supplied by advanced technology includingtesting facilities, critical care units,ventilators and trained personnel. Contacttracing led to identification of more caseswhich were still treated in these hospitalswhere isolation wards were created.Even in a situation as this, there wassignificant concern over the lack of hazmatsuits or Personal Protective Equipment(PPE) for medical and ancillary personneldealing with such cases, number of criticalcare beds, number of ventilators,availability of pulmonologists andtreatment modalities. These are genuinerequirements that would prove critical indeciding the outcome of the pandemic.As the number of cases increase,community transmission is an impending

threat. If some experts are to be believed, itis no longer just a threat but a reality. Thisalso includes geographical spread from Tier1 cities to districts, blocks and villages. Andherein lies the acid test of our healthcaresystem. As hundreds of migrant workers arein transit to return to their villages, the riskof spread of infection multiplies further.The focus now, therefore, has to bedefinitely on preparing the foot-soldiers.Are the sub-centres, primary health centresand community health centres equipped tohandle such cases? How well are thepersonnel deployed at these institutionstrained to identify, diagnose, isolate andtreat such cases?Preparation at the grassroots A discussion with a colleague who workswith a local grassroot NGO in the villages ofBeed district of Maharashtra is revealing.Traditional and mass media have createdawareness about the pandemic here, butalong with information, misconceptionsalso prevail. There are no trained personnelto dispel the misinformation. The localcommunities are resisting migrant workerswho are coming back from different partsfor fear of infection.Severe summers, prevailing drought-likeconditions and hence poor nutrition havebeen adversely affecting health. COVID-19is an additional infection. So the NGOroped in willing local private practitionersto inform people and other NGO workers onthe precautions to be taken when COVID-19cases are suspected. Testing and treatmentfacilities require suspected cases to travel—

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a hazard in times of a lockdown.Any system is only as strong as its weakestlink and right now the primary healthcaresystem (in urban and rural areas) seems tobe the most vulnerable. An epidemic of suchproportions curtails the possibility ofshifting resources including manpower tothese centres. Telemedicine has itslimitations in terms of outreach andproviding treatment modalities. How readyare the foot-soldiers of our health system—the first point of contact between patientsand institutional care?Identifying and empowering the footsoldiers The ASHA (Accredited Social HealthActivist), anganwadi workers and ANM(Auxiliary Nurse Midwife) are the backboneof our health system. Their role in maternaland child health and promotinginstitutional deliveries is one among theirmany achievements. And in such a crisis,the independent allopathic and non-allopathic registered practitioners, the localfamily doctors for most rural and urbanpoor, could also be counted in the ranks.Though they may not be able to provideadvanced treatment support, their role inidentification of cases, contact tracing,quarantine and isolation monitoring, andreferrals would prove significant. Theirpreparedness would depend on their

training about the infection and itsidentification, transmission, diagnosticsand treatment support.The preparedness and efficiency of theseworkers also depends on the availability ofPPE they receive and how effectively theyuse it. Such training would also help themto design isolation units from the availablefacilities to ensure that patients/suspectedcases need not travel.Preparedness of ambulance services incases of emergency is also important as it isestimated from preliminary data that about5% of the patients may require criticalsupport And all this will have to be donewhile managing existing cases of non-communicable diseases like diabetes,hypertension, heart ailments, routine ante-natal care, accidents, among others.The services provided by doctors, nurses,technicians and other hospital-based staffhave received justifiable praise. But as theepidemic spreads, more tests are carriedout and as cases increase, it will test themettle of the community-level healthworkers and individual practitioners. WHOhas already released its guidelines forhealth workers to be followed. Closer home,the Facilitator Guide–COVID-19 released bythe Ministry of Health and Family Welfareis a step in the right direction.

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The WHO’s Failures Are a Red Herring. A 2005

Pact Is the Real Problem Nithin Ramakrishnan

The WHO is overtly China-centric and istaking a softer approach towards China’sdelay in acting on the new coronavirusepidemicIt has failed to coordinate theprocurement of personal protectionequipment, diagnostic kits and othermedical productsIt has been reluctant to recommend aban on international travel and trade,while passively supporting ‘stay at home’It didn’t declare that the virus’s spreadwas a ‘public health emergency ofinternational concern’ soon enough.

The WHO has come under widespreadscrutiny for a few valid and many invalidreasons. The major criticisms that havebeen levelled against the organisation are:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Scholars have also expressed doubts aboutthe WHO’s ability to coordinate its membernations, and US President Donald Trumphas since decided to freeze his country’sfunds for the WHO.However, where there is a legitimateconcern with the WHO, the organisationitself may not be to blame as much asthe International Health Regulations (IHR)2005. Specifically, the WHO’s memberstates should take responsibility fordiluting the purpose of IHR 2005 and thusweakening the WHO itself.

Throughout its history, the WHO has usedits powers in matured fashion, givingimportance to science over diplomacy.Article 2 of the WHO’s constitution lists 22functions, the last of which empowers theWHO to take “all necessary actions” toattain objectives, which is the highestpossible level of healthcare. Article 2 alsorequires the WHO “to stimulate andadvance work to eradicate epidemic,endemic and other diseases”. Not manyinternational institutions have such anopen mandate from their member states.The WHO’s operative mandate on epidemicdisease outbreaks like COVID-19 comesfrom the IHR 2005. Born of globalconsensus after the SARS outbreak in 2003,the IHR 2005 is a legally bindinginstrument under Article 22 of the WHO’sconstitution. It replaced the IHR 1969 andestablished a new set of rules that requiremember states to improve surveillance andreporting mechanisms for public healthemergencies and regulate theimplementation of health measures. TheIHR 2005 also authorises the WHO’sdirector-general to declare a ‘public healthemergency of international concern’(PHEIC) after consulting with theEmergency Committee and state parties inwhich the event is occurring.

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https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/10/world-health-organization-who-v-coronavirus-why-it-cant-handle-pandemic

https://www.who.int/ihr/publications/9789241580496/en/

https://www.who.int/governance/eb/who_constitution_en.pdf

https://www.who.int/csr/ihr/ihr1969.pdf

Once a PHEIC has been declared, the WHOcan issue time-limited health measures astemporary recommendations under Article15 of IHR 2005, and which the memberstates are bound to follow.Response to COVID-19Now, the major criticisms against the WHO– about the delay in announcing a PHEICand the inconsistency between the ‘stay athome’ measures and the reluctance toimpose a travel ban – are both due to a lackof normative clarity in the IHR 2005.The definition of a PHEIC in Article 1 of theregulations identifies only twocharacteristic features: internationalspread of the disease and need for aninternationally coordinated response.However, Article 12 and Annex 2 of the IHRaccount for the risk of interference withinternational traffic as an important part ofdetermining a PHEIC. So the centralconcern is what has to be taken intoconsideration while designing suitablehealth measures.Article 12 of the IHR requires the director-general to consider the informationprovided by the state, to apply scientificprinciples in assessing the availableevidence, to assess the risk to human healthand of international spread of the disease,and the risk of interference withinternational traffic – before announcing aPHEIC. In this process, the director-general is required to use the decisioninstrument contained in Annex 2 and alsoconsult the Emergency Committee.So the issue has three important factors:

the Emergency Committee’s role, theadequacy of evidence, and the finalanalysis. The committee constituted forCOVID-19 has 15 members. All but twostates have only one representative;Singapore and Thailand have two each. Butthe point is that no one nation can exercisedisproportionate influence over thecommittee’s decision.Their consultative process is also among themore dynamic ones at the WHO,transforming a scientific exercise into apolitical one. And even if an affected stateand the committee denies a PHEIC status,the director-general is empowered tooverrule them under Articles 12 and 49 ofthe IHR.But in the case of COVID-19, the director-general and the Emergency Committee werein agreement. And since the committee wasconsidering the matter, the director-general would have been reluctant to takean independent call. Note that the WHOtook an additional 30 days from the day ofintimation to declare the novel coronavirusoutbreak a PHEIC.On the question of adequacy of evidence:the Emergency Committee can’t makeprecautionary decisions. Instead, they needto be based on evidence submitted byaffected member states and from someother sources. According to the committee,China shared sufficient data and relevantinformation. The WHO officials even notedin a media briefing, “China’s cooperation isat unprecedented levels in the history ofPHEIC responses.” But to quench all

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https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---10-april-2020

https://www.who.int/news-room/articles-detail/updated-who-recommendations-for-international-traffic-in-relation-to-covid-19-outbreak

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46fb8RX-Pnc

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19

criticism, the committee should share theminutes of its meeting.The third factor is the risk to public health,international spread of disease andinterference with traffic, especially the lastone. In the statement in which the WHOannounced a PHEIC, the committee’smembers expressed wariness about memberstates taking additional non-recommendedmeasures, thus disturbing internationaltrade and traffic. The committee’schairperson said that a PHEIC declarationallows the WHO to question its memberstates about such measures, in line with thePHEIC’s principal policy objectiveaccording to the IHR 2005: to be “avoidingunnecessary interference with internationaltrade and traffic”.This also means the WHO will not declare aPHEIC if such declarations may needlesslyinterfere with international traffic andtrade, despite the fact that the diseasespreads internationally and aninternationally coordinated response isnecessary. The director-general and theEmergency Committee may believe that aPHEIC declaration can trigger panic anddisturb the global economy, and hold back.Such a thing happened with the Ebolaoutbreak.Article 2 of the IHR 2005, which explainsthe purpose and scope of the IHR, validates

this approach. While the predecessors toIHR 2005 – ISR 1951 and IHR 1969 – werealso concerned with minimisinginterference with international traffic, theyhad limited presence in the text itself; theword ‘trade’ itself was used only once inboth documents combined. The IHR 2005reversed this: Articles 15 and 16 deal withtemporary measures and standingrecommendations respectively, and Article17 discusses factors to be considered beforeadopting these recommendations, andmandates the director-general once againto avoid unnecessary interference withtraffic and trade.Article 43, which deals with member-states’capacity to adopt measures beyond theWHO’s recommendations, is also limited bya similar clause.The International Health Regulations 2005is a classic example of cementing the globalrule of transnational capital in the name ofpublic healthcare.The WHO can’t officially move away fromthe mandate of its member states, which inturn has placed trade interests beforepublic health concerns. The only way outnow is to clarify the normative intent andempower the WHO to make evidence-baseddecisions free from political interference.That is, instead of attacking the WHO, weshould focus on revamping the IHR 2005.

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https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

https://www.vox.com/2019/7/17/20697944/ebola-emergency-pheic-drc

https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/85636/Official_record37_eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

https://www.who.int/csr/ihr/ihr1969.pdf

https://www.jnu.ac.in/sites/default/files/Third%20World%20Manifesto%20BSChimni.pdf

Tackling COVID: A Comparison of Healthcare

Systems Katyayinee Richhariya They say that no man is rich enough to buyhis past and indeed every action of todayhas its roots in yesterday, which even themightiest of all are unable to change. Thelosses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic oftoday can be traced back to the existinghealthcare systems of various countries.Even the mightiest bastions of healthcaresystems fell apart. The article comparesvarious healthcare systems around theglobe.Italy is the second and third most affectedcountry with a death toll of more than23,000 and more than 1,75,000 confirmedcases, respectively. Italian government hadrecognised the right to Human Dignity inthe form of Italian National Health serviceway back in 1978. This is one of the mostrobust governmental schemes of Italy.According to a 2014 data, the governmentfunds almost 76 per cent of the healthcareexpenditure, with private hospitalscontributing only 1 per cent. However,states have been given the option of raisingtheir own funds independently whichexplains the inter-state disparities in thehealthcare system. The most importantlesson for Italy could be rethinking thehighly decentralised healthcare system,although not to transform it into theemployer-based, privatised system thatexisted prior to 1970.

Spain is the second most affected countryin the world with 1,95,000 confirmed casesand more than 20,000 deaths. Its per capitahealth expenditure is lesser than the rest ofthe OECD (Organisation for EconomicCooperation and Development) countries.The economic downturn of 2008–2009forced the Spanish government to cut theexpenditure on the healthcare system by 0.9points, but after 2015 an increase wasobserved which now stands at 8.9 per centof the total GDP. Spain’s capacity of dealingwith an emergency crisis was limitedbecause initially the number of beds perperson was less than that of the OECDcountries—3 per 1000 people as comparedto the average of 4.7 per 1000 in the OECDcountries. The ICU beds stood at 4545 whilethe number of critical patients reached5288. Country’s expedited response to thisled to the doubling of the ICU capacitywithin a span of a week, an increase of 75per cent. There were attempts of creatingmakeshift hospitals in the worst-affectedregions of Madrid, Barcelona, Cataloniabecause the capacities were gettingsaturated too quickly and to deal with thesituation, large football stadiums were alsoused to accommodate more people. Spanishgovernment also lacked the initial capacityof testing and was capable of testing only30,000 until mid- march, which was

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substantially increased to testing 15,000–20,000 tests a day and reached 3,55,000 onMarch 22. The government also allowedRapid Antibody testing for which theMinistry of Health purchased 6,40,000testing kits and 4 robots for detectingantibodies which resist coronavirus.The United States of America is the worstaffected country in the world with morethan 7,38,000 cases and 39,000 deathsreported so far. A critical patient, whilebeing transferred to a ventilator inMinnesota, uttered his last words—“Who’sgoing to pay for it?” A patient in a countrywith the largest healthcare expenditure inthe world worrying about the cost oftreatment rather than life seemsparadoxical. The US spends about 17 percent of its GDP on healthcare but it isexcessively privatised costing US$ 5000 peryear on health insurance for an ordinaryindividual. According to an Americanagency Gallup, 30 per cent of the Americansdeliberately try and postpone their medicaltreatment and only prefer to go to thehospitals only when it is extremely urgent.With unemployment reaching a record highand 16 million Americans stripped off theirjobs, the conditions become even worse as27.9 million people do not have thenecessary health insurance and hence thenumber is bound to increase. The privatehealthcare has led to the frontline doctorsbeing the most vulnerable precisely becauseof two reasons—one they are devoid of theearlier facilities like paid work hours;second, they work amidst the threat of

infections. The US represents the epitomeof healthcare expenditure and the Trumpadministration has provided an additionalUS$ 100 billion.France's health expenditure is coveredmainly by public finance. It spends about 12per cent of its GDP on healthcare, out ofwhich 76 per cent is government sponsored.The government also manages thebudgetary allocation of healthcareexpenditure to various provinces in France.One of the major drawbacks of the Frenchhealthcare system is it being extremelyhospital-centric with negligible focus onprimary care and telemedicine. There wereabout 2000 doctors practicing remoteconsultation up to the end of 2019. But withan increasing risk of the pandemicthroughout France, almost 40,000 remoteconsultations took place in a span of asingle week because under the NationalHealth insurance scheme all remoteconsultations were made completelyreimbursable, as opposed to the earlier 70per cent reimbursement. The uniquemethod of de-stressing the healthcaresystems of the most affected provinces likeAlsace included creating medicated trainsto transport patients to the lesser stressedprovinces, creating military hospitals andairlifting of the patients by the militaryhelicopters. France seems to deal with thecrisis through cooperation between variousprovinces and organs of government alongwith newer methods of decongestion.The United Kingdom (UK) is also strugglingto contain the viral outbreak. The UK

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spends 9.9 per cent of its GDP towardshealthcare with a major contribution of 79per cent from the NHS (National HealthService). There was an initial delay in thenumber of testing, where only 100,000people were tested in a month which wouldideally have been tested in 7-10 days. TheUK parliament holds the power to makeamendments to the existing NHS along withthe Secretary of Health and Department ofHealth. The Department of Healthoverlooks the overall health system of theUK, but the day-today responsibility ofhealthcare lies with NHS England. Anamendment to the NHS bill was passed bythe UK Parliament on March 26, whichcalled for directing the medical care tothose who urgently needed it by obviatingthe social security clause of the NHS andalso allowing the police for detention ofsymptomatic people. Despite such a robustnetwork of NHS volunteers, the governmentdata reveals that 7,50,000 NHS volunteerswere assigned near to 20,000 tasks, whichpoints out to the serious lapses in theimplementation of this scheme. Theconditions still remain bleak with DomincRaab extending the lockdown for anotherthree weeks.China, which was the epicentre of the viraloutbreak, spends 5.6 per cent of its GDP onhealthcare (2014), majorly financed by thepublic sector and public health insurances,which was increased by 14 times during theSARS and MERS outbreak in 2012 and 2018,respectively. According to a report of theWHO and World Bank in 2019, the

healthcare system in China is excessivelydependent on hospitals. After the SARSoutbreak in 2012, a 1000-bed hospital gotready in just 10 days which also indicatesthe resilience of Chinese healthcare system.More than the robustness of the healthcaresystem, the integration of technology intothe medical system was the highlight ofChinese reaction to COVID-19 where appslike Health Code were used to makequarantine decisions.South Korea’s healthcare system was rankedthe best among the OECD countries in 2015.The healthcare system of South Korea is thequintessential amalgamation of Private andPublic contribution. Although the majorityof the hospitals of South Korea are privatelyowned, 97 per cent of the population iscovered under the compulsory nationalhealthcare insurance scheme. A series oftransitions from dictatorship anddemocracy through mass participation waslargely responsible for diverting the focusfrom rapid industrial growth to publicservices which vouched for publicinvestments in healthcare. The country putto practice the golden strategies ofaggressive testing— about 80,000 peoplewere tested during the initial weeks, thethen highest in the world—coupled withstrict social distancing measures andcomplete closure of churches and schools.However, the rate of infections stood at 2.5per cent which resulted in a large number ofcases. Recently, South Korea has managedto curtail the number of infections gettingadded per day into single digits which

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speaks for the level of treatment thepatients were provided. It is worth notingthat South Korea began testing individualsbefore the first confirmed case and hasmanaged to flatten the curve within 20–25days.India, with a population density of 500living in an area of a square kilometre,spends 6 per cent of the GDP on healthcarewhich is lower than the other low-incomecountries, with 69 per cent paid by thehouseholds. The largest state-sponsoredhealthcare scheme Aayushman Bharat waslaunched in 2018 which provides insurancecover to BPL (below poverty line) familiesfor primary health services. The recoveryrate in India remains very high (27.52 percent). As Health is on the State list, variousstate governments have seized severalprivate hospitals and hotels for providingquarantine facilities.The State of Kerala, where the first cases ofCOVID were detected, applied its decadesof public investment on healthcare andlessons from the Nipah Virus outbreak of

2018 to flatten the curve. Similarly, districtBhilwara in Rajasthan, where there werehigh chances of community transmissionwith multiple members of the same familygetting infected, was reported to controlthe emergence of new cases. The doctors ofSawai Man Singh Hospital in Jaipur werethe first to use a combination of drugs likechloroquine and hydroxychloroquine tocure a couple from Italy. The Governmenthas created platforms for online training ofdoctors where they can also provide realtime consultation to the patients. TheCentral Government has pledged aninsurance of 50 lakh rupees for thehealthcare workers.What this crisis has taught the worldunequivocally is that any unforeseen crisiscan only be tackled by strengtheninginstitutions. And how much resources acountry can afford to invest judiciously indeploying them and adapting according tothe nature of the pandemic is the key to sailwith minimum losses in the unchartedterritory of the current times.

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STRATEGICSTUDIES

Image source: news.psu.edu


The effects of deadly COVID-19 outbreak on

the geopolitics of one of the most volatile

regions has potential to change the nature

of the power balance when regional power

such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel

continue to strive for regional dominance.

Gazi Hassan

COVID-19: Cruise Industry and its Future Dr Vijay Sakhuja In the wake of COVID-19, the US Centersfor Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)has extended its March 14 No SailOrder (NSO) for cruise ships operating inwaters under the jurisdiction of the UnitedStates. The NSO makes note of the healthand safety of passengers and crew employedonboard cruise vessels and providesdetailed guidance for cruise lineroperations.In Europe, the European Union hasissued guidelines for cruise ship operatorswho have temporarily ceased theiroperations. Elsewhere too, in Japan, India,Taiwan and the UAE, the governments haveinstructed local port authorities to eitherrestrict or ban cruise liner arrivals amid thecoronavirus pandemic. During the lastthree months, the cruise liner industry hasbeen in the crosshairs of the COVID-19pandemic and nearly three dozen cruiseships have been hit.Some common issues confronted by thecruise liners since the outbreak of thepandemic merit mention. Many vesselswere prevented from berthing at ports andpassengers were disallowed to disembarkfor repatriation amid fear of importing thevirus through infected passengers andcrew. Furthermore, crew change could nottake place due to the disembarkationrestrictions/lockdown at the ports and theyremained stranded on virus-stricken ships.

In fact, they continue to be on voyageadding to mental stress and deeppsychological impacts.Besides, there are other major limitationsonboard a cruise vessel such as inadequatefacilities to manage large scale infections,and quarantining passengers is difficultdue space constraints. Perhaps moreworrisome is that some cruise linecompanies have been slapped with classaction lawsuits by passengers over lack oftransparency of infections and poormanagement of onboard medicalemergencies.Meanwhile, the World Health Organization(WHO) has issued guidelines for ships tomanage/contain corona outbreak onboardships. Similarly, the InternationalTransport Workers’ Federation (ITF), theInternational Labour Organization (ILO)and the International MaritimeOrganization (IMO) have also issuedguidance and advisory to cruise liners andtheir companies.It is true that the cruise liner industry is inthe midst of an unprecedented crisis arisingfrom COVID-19 and to be fair was caughtunawares. There are 272 cruise shipsworldwide which host nearly 30 millionpassengers annually. The cruise linerindustry is the fastest-growing category inthe leisure travel market and is valued atabout US$ 45 billion.

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The industry is now experiencing anadverse impact of COVID-19 on itsoperations and the financial condition ofthe sector is marked by widespread losses.The Carnival announced that it needed toraise US$ 6 billion (US$ 3 billion in three-year secured bonds, U$1.75 billion of bondsthat can convert into shares and US$ 1.25billion in newly issued stock) to remainafloat and conduct its future operations.Further, the stock value of at least threepublicly traded cruise line companies hasplummeted during February and March2020, i.e., the Carnival stocks may have lostas much as 60 per cent, and the NorwegianCruise Line and the Royal Caribbean lossesare estimated to be over 70 per cent of theirvalue.The impact of COVID-19 is also being felt bya number of other stakeholders and thereare fears that the pandemic couldpotentially result in job losses andrevenues, and sink the industry. Inparticular, people in small islandnations are highly dependent on the cruiseliner industry for livelihoods and jobswhich provide them with a variety ofhospitality services, and ready cashobtained from the tourists and visitorsmakes small business remain afloat. Forinstance, the cruise industry contributesannually nearly US$ 2 billion to theCaribbean nations. In the case of St Kittsand Nevis, the cruise industry contributes

nearly 5.9 per cent to their GDP.Many cruise lines are witnessing hugefinancial losses and may not be able tosustain their operations at least in the shortterm. Significantly, a few of them havestopped taking reservations for itinerariesover the next nine months; likewise, somepassengers have chosen to cancel thereservations. However, according toa report, cruise bookings for 2021 are on therise and the cruise booking siteCruiseCompete.com has seen a “40%increase in its bookings for 2021 over its2019 bookings” in the past 45 days.Similarly, Swiss bank USB has reported 9per cent more cruises booked for 2021 ascompared to the same period in2019 suggesting “surprising resilience indesire to book a cruise” by people. This isfurther reinforced by an online poll of morethan 4600 people and put out onCruiseCritic.com which notes that “75% offormer passengers would continue sailingthe same amount or more frequently”.A cruise industry operator is confidentabout the resilience of the industry and hasargued that it has weathered many suchpandemics and health scares includingpolitical unrest and wars. It is notsurprising that the cruise industry is upbeatabout its ability to bounce back while manyother sectors of the global economy take ahit, the effects of which will continue in2021.

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How can India Survive on a Low Defence Budget in

COVID times? Cdr Jayakrishnan N Nair (Retd) Introduction The defence budget of India has seen a hikeof 6 per cent, from Rs 3.18 lakh crore fromthe year 2019 to Rs 3.37 lakh crore in 2020.Armed forces are less enthusiastic as alwayssince the major chunk of this budget outlaycaters to the revenue expenses rather thancapital acquisitions. In addition, theGovernment of India (GOI) has stalled manyimportant acquisitions in view of theongoing pandemic which would affect thebattle readiness of the Force. The Ministryof Finance always targets defence budgetwhenever an economic crisis arises. Armedforces are now busy redoing their defencepreparedness aligning with the new budgetoutlay. The article tries to explore a fewunconventional steps whereby the nationcan cope up with a depleted defence budgetduring the ongoing pandemic.A Comparison Since India perceives China as the mainadversary in defence preparedness, it wouldbe prudent to draw a parallel with theChinese. Though India’s defence budget hasbeen increasing every year, the outlay is notenough for it to catch-up with China whichspends on defence more than triple theamount being spent by India. Beijing’sdefence budget was US$ 249.9 bn in 2019,while India was at US$ 62 bn. But in terms

of GDP, India spends 2.5 per cent of theGDP on defence whereas China spends only1.9 per cent of its GDP. China’s steadyramping up of defence budget outlay overthe years is a concern for India. As Chinaconsiders the US as its main adversary, itmay continue to pump more money fordefence preparedness in the coming years.Underlying TrendThe gap between India and China’s militaryspending is widening year after year. Amere comparison with China shows theinadequacy of our defence budget over theyears. The imbalance is severe and needs tobe attended to avoid a possible militarythreat from China.Surviving on a Low Defence Budget It is a tough call for the armed forces tomanage the battle resources with a lowbudget, where-in the salary for men inuniform cannot be compromised. Inaddition, armed forces need to extend thelife of old weapons and platforms andcontinue using them till the replacementarrives. Mig 21 of IAF is a classic example ofprocrastination costing lives of 200 pilotstill date. Delay in defence acquisition wouldnot only affect the fighting capability butalso the planning behind the recruitment,training and allocation of skilledmanpower. While the challenge and

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Force. Henceforth, the expansion of armedforces will be done without increasing themanpower proportionately. Technology willremain as the biggest enabler for thegrowth of armed forces and the trend willcontinue in the future.3. Reducing Arms Imports Currently, a large amount of weapons,platforms and systems are imported to keepthe force battle-ready. A large chunk ofbudget allocation goes for acquisitions fromabroad. Our indigenous defence productionis steadily going up. Delaying procurementplans and sourcing indigenous vendorswould be a ‘win-win’ situation for theGovernment and domestic manufactures infuture. Reduction of arms import can save ahuge forex.4. Tasking CDS for Full-scale Integration Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) has assumedoffice and the Department of MilitaryAffairs (DMA) has come into existenceunder the Ministry of Defence (MoD). CDScan integrate the operations of the IndianArmy, Air Force and Navy by cooperating in

responsibility of maintaining battlereadiness remains with the armed forces,certain other factors can act as a relief tothe economic crisis followed by thepandemic.1. Keeping Threat Perception Low The possibility of a confrontation withimmediate neighbours has become veryremote in view of the present geopoliticalmilieu of South Asia. Pakistan’s economyhas touched bottom. There is a slowdown inChina which has been aggravated by thecorona pandemic. Hegemony enjoyed byIndia in the sub-continent will continueunabated in the coming years. As long asthere is peace, armed forces can delay theiracquisition plans.2. Embracing Technology The Government of India has given animpetus to the up-gradation of technologyand systems along with the replacement ofold weapon systems with new ones. Themanpower requirement has been trimmedby deploying more automated systemsacross the board in Army, Navy and Air-

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Graph 1: India vs China: Budget Allocation over the Years.


facilitate interoperability with the USforces and NATO during combat. Visit ofthe American President Donald Trump toIndia in February 2020 has cemented astrategic military partnership betweenIndia and the US.7. Re-focus on Subcontinent and IOR India should always keep its militaryambition within the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) and the subcontinent as our forcecannot handle engagements beyond the IORwith the present constraints. As a policy,Indian should focus on using its forces todefend the nation and its interests withinthe geographical limits.8. Austerity by Armed Forces The suggestion for a self-imposed austeritymay not augur well with the armed forces.But there is a vast scope for muting someexpenditure from the revenue outlay. Graph2 shows the increasing revenue componentover the years. If trimming the revenueexpenditure is done judiciously, a moderateamount can be recovered and reallocated tocapital budget.

operation, logistics, transport, training,support services, communications, repairsand maintenance. This would ensureoptimal utilisation of infrastructure andrationalise resources and force deployment,thus help in bringing the militaryexpenditure down.5. Global Slowdown The global economic slowdown postCOVID-19 will certainly bring down thearms race across the world. China’sslowdown is a blessing in disguise and a cutin Chinese defence expenditure can beexpected in the coming years.6. Keeping Close Ties with the US Though the pandemic has taken a huge tollon the United States, it still enjoys thenumber one position as a military might.The country still remains as a watchdog offreedom and sovereignty across the globe. Avery close relationship with the US wouldcertainly help India survive in theunbalanced unipolar world. Besides,frequent military exercises with the USwould help India in the long run. Recentmilitary acquisitions from the US would

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Graph 2: Defence Budget Revenue vs Capital Outlay.


hit globally. Most of the militaryacquisitions and associated spending arebeing aborted by nations due to the paucityof funds. Hence, India can also balancewith the potential enemies by managingwith a low budget.12. Deferring New RecruitmentA major chunk of the defence budget isallocated for the revenue expenditure of thearmed forces, of which salary is the majorsub-component. By reducing the annualintake of soldiers, a good amount of salaryand cost to company (CTC) can be reduced.This is a delicate exercise which needsutmost proficiency to carry out withoutdamaging the potency of the fighting force.Conclusion Protecting the nation with a depletingdefence budget is a challenging task. Inorder to minimise the spending, there is aneed to look for out of the box solutions.While doing this, the requirements ofarmed forces—critical for the nation’ssecurity—should never be undermined. TheGovernment will have to exploreunconventional practises with the consentof the armed forces to help the defencesector survive during COVID times.

9. Networking with New Friendly NationsIndia has been very successful inestablishing a strategic relationship withfriendly nations across the Indian Ocean.This would facilitate getting access to theirsea ports and air stripes. The policy ofnetworking with more Foreign FriendlyNations (FFN) from across the Gulf, EastAfrica and the South East Asian archipelagoshould continue. The Ministry of ForeignAffairs can work in conjunction with thearmed forces towards achieving this goal. 10. Delegating and Subcontracting TasksDelegating and contracting a few fringetasks and responsibilities by the armedforces can help in cost cutting. Armedforces can also explore areas where they candeploy or utilise contracted personnel.Tasks that do not have any directimplications on combat operations can bedelegated to them. Training and logisticsare the potential areas where a haircut canbe introduced.11. COVID-19 and Military Spending The COVID-19 pandemic seems to havereduced the enmity between many nations.The military spending across the world hastaken a back seat since the pandemic has

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Will COVID-19 Shift the Power Balance in the

Middle East? Gazi Hassan The coronavirus, relentlessly spreading andrampaging across the globe, will have anenormous impact on the region of theMiddle East which is already embroiled inmultiple problems including a series ofconflicts, sectarian violence, economiccrises, refugee problem and widespreadpolitical unrest. The latest figures ofCOVID-19, as we speak, has already reachedmore than 1,00,000 confirmed cases, withover 6500 deaths in the region. Iran is theworst affected of all the countries in theregion with more than 70,000 confirmedcases and over 4500 deaths. Even the healthfacilities in many of the countries in theregion are not ready to cope with a largeinflux of patients as either they are at war(in case of Syria and Yemen) or bankrupt(Lebanon and Iran) or unstable (Iraq).The pandemic will drastically impacteconomies across the globe, but the effecton the Middle East will be huge and as aresult the countries depending upon theremittances from the region will alsosuffer. The GDP of the region which standsat US$ 3.5 trillion is expected to declinesignificantly in 2020. This figure could behigher if the compounding effect of low oilprices and the slowdown of economies dueto the closure of various public institutionsand private sector enterprises do not getthe required stimulus from their respectivegovernments.

The COVID-19 crisis has led to a significantdecline in oil prices which has cost theregion nearly US$ 11 billion in net oilrevenues between January and mid-March2020. During this time, the region’sbusinesses have lost a massive US$ 420billion of market capital, i.e., about 8 percent of the total market capital in theregion. On the other hand, the tourismsector is also predicting a significant loss asit contributes a major part to the economyof countries like Egypt, Iran, Turkey,Palestine and Israel.The pandemic is also affecting various keyjob-rich sectors in the region. For instance,tourist cancellations have reached 80 percent in many of the countries, while thesectors such as hospitality and retail havealso been adversely affected. As thepandemic ravages economies andbusinesses, the crisis could cause job loss ofmore than 1.7 million people in the regionat an alarming pace with unemployment tospike above 1.2 per cent. With a largenumber of people employed in the servicesector, there is a fear of an increase inunemployment due to lay-offs. Thissituation is particularly perilous for low-income migrant labourers who could be leftimpoverished without any governmentalsupport. Although the charities havestepped in to fill the gap, the prospect ofjob losses will also affect other economies

JUNE 2020 PAGE 49


as they contribute billions of dollars inremittances. The amount of money senthome by migrant workers is as high as US$70 billion to US$ 75 billion and in manyestimates double of the official number.This forms a major part of the economy invarious South Asian and South East Asiancountries.According to the International MonetaryFund (IMF), the economic outlook for theGulf States this year looks bleak. The GCCis expected to post deficits in 2020 and willpossibly slide into recession. The fiscaldeficits of GCC is projected to reach 10-12per cent of GDP in 2020, implying anadditional financing stimulus of aroundUS$ 150 billion to US$ 170 billion.Unless the GCC nations choose tointervene, the crisis will lead to the collapseof small and medium enterprises (SMEs) inthe region where they constitute a criticalcomponent of the economic future. SaudiArabia and the UAE have started followingthe Chinese model in setting up stimuluspackages for their SMEs, but manycountries like Egypt, Jordan and Lebanonhave much difficulty in providing thesebusinesses with the support they need toweather the crisis.The aggregate economic impact is likely tobe very large, with the most recent datasuggesting the global economic impact willbe comparable to the 2008–2009 recession,in which GDP was reduced by more than 2per cent worldwide and in the Middle Eastby more than 11 per cent. The comparisonwith the recession of 2008 gainsimportance because despite the dramatic

economic slowdown, the Middle Easteconomies performed well and did a decentjob of weathering that crisis. Thecombination of a looming recession coupledwith an unprecedented health crisis in thesecountries, given the terrible state of theirhealth systems, will be a disaster.The consequences as a result of collapse incrude oil price could stretch well beyond theeconomic fallout and have the potential toundermine the stability of systems wherethe political and the social consensus relydirectly on the redistribution of revenuegenerated by the oil exports. While it ishard to predict the political, economic andsocial ramifications of this pandemic, froma geopolitical perspective it will lead to ashift in the regional balance of power, withChina playing a major role. Beijing hasreplaced the US in providing timelyassistance to the countries in the region. Ithas been proactively lending support togovernments across the region from Algeriato Tunisia and from the PalestinianNational Authority to Iran supplyingnecessary medical equipment and sharingscientific knowledge and medical expertise.With its mask diplomacy, Beijing hasdonated more than 2,50,000 masks to Iranand other countries in the region.Therefore, the effects of this deadlyoutbreak on the geopolitics of one of themost volatile regions in the world areplaying out on various levels. While theregional power struggles between Iran,Saudi Arabia and Israel continue to evolve,the question arises how COVID-19 is goingto change the nature of the power balance.

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The existing public transport sector is

facing serious threats due to the

pandemic, like the fear among the users

to travel in public vehicles, poor financial

situation of the operators etc. This when

combined with the mobility needs of the

people can result in a surge in the use of

private vehicles—a nightmare to a

sustainable vision for transport.

JUNE 2020 PAGE 51

CITIES &INFRASTRUCTURE



Praseeda Mukundan

Transfer powers of DMs to mayors to solve urban

issues Dr D Dhanuraj One of the conditions laid down by theCentre for the state governments toincrease their borrowing limit is to ‘bringin reforms to streamline the revenue ofurban local bodies (ULBs)’. Though this hasbeen in the discussion since the 74thamendment, nothing has changed for themajority of the ULBs. Now, this has beentaken up by the Centre and there is a hueand cry about the imposition andinfringement of the federal principles bymandating reforms.It is worth exploring the role of the ULBs inthe investment strategies of both the Stateand the Centre, especially when we aregoing through the toughest times for theeconomy, mostly due to the COVID-19pandemic.The ULBs still remain one of the weakestlinks in the administrative and politicaleconomy in India, though we have beentrying to implement decentralisation, andthus impart more power to the ULBsthrough various initiatives in the past fewdecades. While our urbanisation has beenin an upward trend for the last two decades,the capacity building and power transferhave been ad-hoc and limited to theschemes announced by the Centre fromtime to time.

Lame Duck ULBsGlobally, mayors and councils are glorifiedas the panacea for the urban challengesfaced in the 21st century; however, in India,they lack autonomy, authority and thepowers to solve the most basic local issues,which still remain under the Centre and theState. The administrative wing of the ULBslack upgrading, up-skilling and one-upmanship. The ULBs depend on the Stateor the Centre for funds, and approvals fortheir decisions.The discussion doing the rounds now, in thetimes of COVID-19, is about thepossibilities of attracting companiesoperating from China to shift to India. Forthis, the Centre has talked about specialeconomic zones, industrial corridors, parksand townships, and clusters. How can theCentre expect that by setting up a largepiece of the land made available andmanaged by the state bureaucracy,investors would be happy to invest? Thecompanies will still have to deal with thechallenges faced at the local level(panchayat or municipal), in addition toliaison with state and central governments.The ecosystem that is expected to supportand facilitate investment in urban areas isnot with the ULBs, but it is under the

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control of the state. The confusion couldincrease if the big-ticket investment comesstraight from the Centre to the urban area.China’s Empowered MayorsOne of the major attractions for investmentin China is the power enjoyed by the localadministration, especially the mayor, indeciding on various factors related to theopportunities available. A mayor in Chinahas more say in setting up or ensuring thelocal support system — which, sadly, is notthe case with mayors in India. Theinvestments in Indian cities are primarilydriven by the proximity to the powercentres in the state, such as capital cities,so that the Chief Minister or thedepartments concerned can oversee thedevelopments from close quarters. Theother set of cities, which have attractedinvestments in India, are those developedas industrial towns in the past. Thereagain, the state or Centre plays asignificant role. In the ease of doingbusiness lexicon, the role of a mayor or citycouncil is forgotten.Indian cities are not always known forconducting ‘vibrant city summits’. Rather,they are infamous for filthy drainagesystems and poor air quality compoundedwith traffic snarls and frequent poweroutages.It is often witnessed that states oppose the

diktats from the Centre—but, what aboutcities opposing diktats from the statebureaucracy or the Centre? Why aren’tcities allowed to compete for investments orpublish reports on their health?The CEO MayorMost of the urban issues can be solved if thepower is transferred to the ULBs. There isalso a need to transfer the decision-makingpowers over land and labour to the citycouncils based on the Centre or stateguidelines. The mayor should enjoy CEOstatus and should be directly elected by thelocals. The mayor’s election manifesto canalso include the kind of investments andhealth she envisages for the city.A huge change can be expected if the powersenjoyed by the district magistrates duringthe lockdown are transferred to the mayors.A composite index of the cities, in turn,would encourage the towns to improve theservices and conditions at the local level notonly for the benefits of the investors butalso for its citizens. The set of objectives forthe 74th amendment shall be amended againto suit the present day requirements such asinvestments, and GST at the localgovernment level. It is time for us to thinkabout the city-state economies rather thanthe nation-state economies, keeping thefederal spirit intact.

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What the Kerala government can do to revive inter-

state bus service sector Aiswarya Krishnan For many people, bus travel is the go-tooption for last minute inter-state travel.But with the spread of coronavirusresulting in the national lockdown, theinter-state bus service sector is caughtbetween a rock and hard place.There is no specific definition for ‘inter-state’ buses in the Motor Vehicles (MV) Act,1988. As per Section 66 of the Act, a stagecarriage permit/contract carriage permit ismandatory to operate any bus service. Astage carriage permit allows buses to pickup and drop off passengers at variousstages of the journey between the originand destination, whereas a contractcarriage permit allows passengers to bepicked up from the origin and dropped offonly at the destination point withoutstopping to pick up or drop off passengersanywhere in between.The Kerala State Road TransportCorporation (Kerala SRTC) runs 566 stagecarriages while more than 600 private-runcontract carriages operate as inter-stateservices. Only Kerala SRTC is issued stagecarriage permits to provide inter-stateservices on the basis of the inter-stateagreements formed between the Keralagovernment and other neighbouring stategovernments. The private buses operate oncontract carriage/all India permit forproviding inter-state services.Recently, the Central government had

issued a notification to amend Section 66 ofthe MV Act, exempting the AC deluxe luxurybuses (with body code AIS-052 havingcarrying capacity of more than 22passengers) from taking permits to provideservices. This means that buses operated byprivate players complying with the specifiedbody code can operate without any permit.If the notification gets implemented, it willimprove the ease of doing business whichwill benefit private players and thus moreservices could be operated, therebyincreasing the revenue for the stategovernment in terms of tax.In spite of this fact, the state governmenthas opposed the notification foreseeing apossibility of the road transport sector,which was earlier monopolised by KeralaSRTC, to be overtaken by the private entity.Section 66 also mentions: “Provided that astage carriage permit shall, subject to anyconditions that may be specified in thepermit, authorise the use of the vehicle as acontract carriage.” Hence, buses with stagecarriage permits can operate as contractcarriage and not vice versa.Earlier, heavy fines were imposed onprivate operators by the Motor Vehiclesdepartment for permit violations, but as perthe current amendment there is ambiguityon how the department would exercise its powers in regulating the inter-stateservices provided by private players. The

JUNE 2020 PAGE 54


reasons for permit violations could be lowpatronage or insufficient revenuegeneration to sustain the business. If thenotification gets implemented, inter-statebuses run by private players too can operateas stage carriage services.However, considering the current COVID-19 situation, Kerala SRTC has estimatedthat its fleet can ply only 5.5 lakh km perday in the post-lockdown period against itsusual coverage of 16.5 lakh km per day.With the practice of physical distancing andthe possibility of the virus spreading inpublic transport, one of the majorstrategies followed by other countries islimiting the number of passengers onboard.Considering the number of daily inter-state/inter-district commuters in Keralaand the existing number of operationalservices, there is a need for well-thought-out policy changes in the sector based ondata. As working from home is becomingthe new normal, there is a need forconducting surveys in collaboration withonline bus booking platforms havingtraveller data for forecasting the number ofcommuters who will use public buses and todetermine the fleet size. These surveys canbe used to assess the confidence level in thepublic in using public buses over privatevehicles in the future. The revival of thesector needs measures that favour both theplayers. The implementation of the inter-state agreements as well as the provisionfor nationalisation of routes shall benullified considering the coronavirusoutbreak, so that both the players canoperate services as required on all routes.

The state government, instead of favouringthe loss-making Kerala SRTC, has to adoptmeasures to encourage business andcompetition in the sector. Whenconsidering the economic loss due toinvestments in the sector, it is the privateoperators who have to bear the brunt thanKerala SRTC, which has the hand-holding ofthe state transport department.Kerala SRTC has been exempted from singlepoint tax payment till 2021 by the stategovernment. On the other hand, to provideinter-state services private operators haveto pay heavy double tax based on the taxrates per seat charged in different states.After the Kallada issue and ‘OperationNightriders’, it was reported that there wasa considerable decline in the number ofservices run by private players due to lackof revenue. Considering the present crisis,there is the possibility of a large number ofoperators withdrawing from the businesseven after the lockdown is lifted. This is dueto the requirement of heavy investment inthe operation and maintenance as well asdisinfection of buses to continue services.As an immediate strategy, in a bid to revivethe sector, the Kerala government canconsider exempting or subsidising the taxrate for private players for a certain period.The government can also consider waivingoff loan payments by private bus operatorstaking into account their investment loss.In the long run, in order to improve thesafety of public buses, a strategy ofrestructuring the bus infrastructure couldbe adopted, but that too will be possibleonly with funding support from the stategovernment.

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Created by Dr Rijo M John, Senior Fellow

(Health Economics), CPPR

JUNE 2020 PAGE 56

COVIDINFOGRAPHICS



To view all the infographs on COVID visitwww.cppr.in/covid19

JUNE 2020 PAGE 57


COVID-19: Percent of Cummulative tests turning positive over 5-days

intervals on June 12, 2020

Trends in actual and predicted COVID cases in India as on June 9, 2020

JUNE 2020 PAGE 58


Trends in Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Mortality Rate (MR) from

COVID-19 as on June 9, 2020

Trends in daily new COVID-19 cases and deaths in countries with 2

Lakhs+ cases as on June 9, 2020

JUNE 2020 PAGE 59


Trends in daily COVID-19 deaths in countries with 1.5 Lakhs+ cases as

on June 5, 2020

Progression of COVID-19 cases in India as on May 30, 2020

Documents

CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH€¦ · Dr Swapna Jambhekar, Research Consultant, CPPR Dr Harisankar K. Sathyapalan, Research Fellow (International Law and Dispute Settlement),