Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households

Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria

Institut d”Economie Rural,

Mali

Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households to Climate Variability and Change in the West African

Sahel

Anthony NyongGeography Department, University of Jos, Nigeria

START Visiting FellowStockholm Environment Institute, Oxford, UK

Abou BerthéInstitute of Rural Economy, Mali

Second International Conference on Climate Assessment (SICCIA),June 28 – July 2, 2004,

Grainau, Germany.



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Acknowledgements

• This work is part of an AIACC supported project on Households and droughts in the West African Sahel: Effective Adaptation Measures. Research is executed by the University of Jos, Nigeria and The Institute of Rural Economy, Mali.

• Funding for AIACC (Assessment of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in Multiple Regions) was provided by GEF, USAID, CIDA and USEPA.

• AIACC is jointly administered by START (Global SysTems for Analysis, Research and Training) and TWAS (Third World Academy of Science)



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The Sahel Environment 1• A transition between the southern margin of the Sahara

desert and the savanna regions to the south. • A bio-climatic zone of mainly annual grasses with a few

shrubs and trees, that receives a mean annual rainfall of between 150 and 600mm

• A steep gradient of decreasing rainfall from south to north, with an increase in inter-annual and spatial variability.

• A zone of cultural transition where the Islamic culture from the north mingles with the traditional cultures of the south.

• North-south stratification of social systems, northerly cultures tend towards pastoralism, southerly cultures largely practice sedentary agriculture.



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A comparison of the 10-day rainfall distribution and the cumulative rainfall for 2002 with the long term average (1960-90) for various zones within the Sahel

The Sahel Environment 2



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Research Questions/Objectives• Who is vulnerable? What are the specific reasons

for their vulnerability? Where are the vulnerable? How have they come to be vulnerable? What shapes the exposure to and ability of certain groups to rebound from vulnerability?

• We also wish to know the temporal and spatial aspects of vulnerability: Will vulnerability be long or short term or is vulnerability worse at certain times of the year?

• From the spatial perspective we wish to know the extent of vulnerable areas susceptible to droughts. The most vulnerable people may not be in the most vulnerable regions.



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Key ClimaticVariables

RiskAssessment

AdaptationStrategies

Selection of Study Sites

Stakeholders

Non Climatic Variables

VulnerabilityModel

Sensitivity Analysis

Scenarios

CopingThreshold

IPCCAIACC

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Project Coverage



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Methodology 1• The Focus

– Current Vulnerability

• The Scale– Household

• The Framework– Sustainable Livelihood Systems Framework

• Stakeholder involvement and analysis– Variations in definition and perception of vulnerability



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Current Vulnerability• Quantitative assessment of the vulnerability and

adaptive capacity of various groups to past and present drought disasters will form a basis for, and contribute to understanding future Vulnerability & Adaptation to drought hazards in the Sahel.



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Household Analysis

• Project will mainly address the vulnerability of resource-poor households and groups, with a strong gender perspective.

• Continuing absence of class and gender focus in vulnerability to drought reinforces biases and presents a gap in giving a clearer picture of vulnerability, as well as in designing effective mitigation measures for them.

• Assets and entitlements are better analyzed at household level



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Why Sustainable Livelihood? Adopting a sustainable livelihoods perspective on drought vulnerability results in a fundamental shift in focus away from the resource itself to people, the impact of drought on their livelihood strategies, and resource conditions.

Will ensure that projects tackling drought mitigation and adaptation become problem-led rather than ‘discipline-led’.

Will lead to a greater understanding of the multiple dimensions of drought vulnerability. Vulnerability is explicitly a social phenomenon related to a human value system.



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Stakeholder Analysis•Stakeholders are those who would be increasingly affected by the foreseen impacts, as well as those who have a role in influencing adaptation and policy.

•Understanding role of stakeholders in the decision-making processes to cope with and adapt during climatic events is fundamental to characterizing current and possible future vulnerability.

•Stakeholder analysis will assist the implementation of adaptation policies and the formation of an “adaptation community”, that will provide the momentum to carry the process forward (APF, 2003).



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• Participatory Rural Appraisal to: – Identify major livelihood systems

Methodology 2

Farming

Fishing Non-Agric Systems

Pastoralism



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Selection of Study Communities

Zones Rainfall (mm) No of Villages

No. of households

Sahelo-Saharan < 400 4 48Sahelian 400 – 600 4 48Sudano-Sahelian 600 – 1000 3 36Sudano-Guinean > 1000 3 36Delta 400-600 2 24Total 16 192

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Nigeria

27 communities selected, 860 households interviewed, Communities selected based on livelihood systems, size of villages and willingness of the women to participate in the project.



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Identification Vulnerability Indicators• Identification of risks exposed to:

– Different groups in the Sahel are differentially at risk from different threats to their livelihood. Climate change is one of those threats. Such risks include: Insecurity/violence, ill-health/death of both humans and animals, rising cost of living, insufficient food for the household, crop failure

– Vulnerability varies within and between households and across communities. People’s perceptions of risk may be based not only on the objective risks that they face, such as variable rainfall, but also on their subjective assessment of risk.

– Development of indicators of vulnerability - mix of both quantitative and subjective indicators



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Table 1: Indices and Weights for Preliminary Vulnerability Assessment for Northern Nigeria

Index Value Measured/Calculated as Range Average

1 Acreage under cultivation 1 Hectares/consumer units 0.1 -2.8 0.6

2 Dependency ratio 1 Labour units/consumer units (inverted) 0.3 – 0.8 0.5

3 Livestock ownership 1 Tropical Livestock Units/consumer units 0.0 – 8.2 3.7

4 Gender of Household Head 1 Value given to sex of household head 1.0 – 2.0 1.8

5 Livelihood diversification 1 Weighted number of non-agricultural income generating activities/consumer units

0.0 - 2.4 0.7

6 Annual cash income 1 In 1000 Naira/consumer units 2.5 – 9.7 4.2

7 Drought Preparedness 1 Value given to use of drought resistant crops and livestock and receives drought related information and advise

0.0 – 2.0 1.1

8 Educational background of the household head

0.5 Value given to highest school level attained by the head of the household

0.0 -4.0 1.8

9 Land tenure situation 0.5 Value given to land tenure situation 1.0 – 3.0 2.5

10 Type of house 0.5 Value given to type of house lived in 1.0 -3.0 1.80

11 Self-sufficiency in food production

0.5 Number of years surplus foodstuffs were sold minus number of years foodstuffs were bought in the past 10 years

0.0 -20.0 11.2

12 Family and Social Networks 0.5 Value given to strength of family and social networks.

1.0 – 4.0 2.25

13 Quality of household 0.5 Number of able persons/ number of disabled and or sick persons in the household (inverted)

1.5 – 12.0 7.6

Overall Vulnerability 10 Sum of (index scores * index value) 235.1 to 833.9 472.1



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Vulnerability Ranking

Distribution of Households According to Levels of Vulnerability

Vulnerability GroupLivestock (Bunza)

Crop farming (Garin Adamu)

Fishing(Tikuikui)

Very Vulnerable 8 12 4

Vulnerable 17 10 16

Not Vulnerable 5 8 10

Total 30 30 30

• Methodology for classification– Indicators weights

• <350 Highly Vulnerable• 351 – 700 Vulnerable• >700 Not Vulnerable



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Characteristics

Highly Vulnerable

Vulnerable Not Vulnerable

No (%) No (%) No (%)

Household Size< 3

3 – 7> 12Total

8 (33.3)5( 20.8)

11 (45.9)24 (100.0)

11 (25.6)15 (34.9)17 (39.5)

43 (100.0)

5 (21.7)8 (34.8)

10 (43.5)23 (100.0)

Dependency Ratio 0.6 0.5 0.4

Sex of HH Head 1.8 1.9 1.9

Mean Age of HH Head 61 55 54

Mean Income/Consumer Unit N 3100.00 N4800.00 N6300.00

Education of HH Head 0.8 1.4 2.2

Livelihood Diversification 0.8 1.5 3.9

Quality of Household 5.4 6.8 8.2

Family/ Social Network 1.8 1.9 4.6

Food Sufficiency Past Decade 7 9 15

Table 3: Selected Household Indicators of Adaptive Capacity by Vulnerability Groups



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CharacteristicsCoefficient S.E p>│z│ odds

Household Size 0.047 0.006 0.063 1.05

Dependency Ratio -1.036 0.016 0.000 2.82

Sex of HH Head 0.018 0.050 0.071 1.02

Mean Age of HH Head -0.724 0.119 0.041 2.06

Mean HH Income/consumer unit -1.003 0.022 0.000 2.73

Education of HH Head -0.016 0.011 0.064 1.02

Livelihood Diversification -0.772 0.029 0.000 2.16

Quality of Household -0.154 0.010 0.032 1.17

Food sufficiency -0.326 0.031 0.048 1.39

Family/ Social Network -0.103 0.208 0.046 1.11

Constant -1.663 0.098 0.022

_cut1 -0.390 0.012

_cut2 -0.503 0.015

Sample size 90

Log Likelihood statistic -16441

Table 4: Multivariate Results of Household Adaptive Capacity



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What Next?• More Data Analyses to answer the Research

Questions• Development of a GIS for spatial analysis of

drought vulnerability

Concerns?• Aggregating household level indicators to

community/regional indices• Development of a Dynamic Vulnerability Model

Documents

Centre for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, University of Jos, Nigeria Institut d”Economie Rural, Mali Vulnerability of Poor Rural Households