Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 1
Rice Markets of the Americaswas affected by Global Price
Rises in 2008 ?
Patricio MPatricio Mééndez del Villarndez del VillarCentre de CoopCentre de Coopéération Internationale en ration Internationale en
Recherche Agronomique pour le Recherche Agronomique pour le DDééveloppement (Cirad)veloppement (Cirad)
The Rice Trade Rice Americas Conference 2009Miami – United States
12-14 May 2009
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 2
Overview
1.Rise Prices 2008: A crazy year !2.Global Grain and Oil Price Trends3.Global Rice Prices and Regional Prices4.Global Rice Trade and Western Hemisphere Trade5. Production Outlook in the Americas 6. Consumption Trends7. Few considerations on prevailing issues for future
trends
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 3
1. Rise Prices in 2008: A crazy year !
OSIRIZ/InfoArroz International prices Index (IPO)base 100 = january 2000 source: Osiriz/InfoArroz
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
OctoberNovemberDecember
January 2007February
MarchApril MayJuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
January 2008February
MarchApril MayJuneJuly
AugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember
January 2009February
MarchApril
Later 2007
May 2008
Later 2008
From October 2007 to October 2008
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
jan 2005march
mayjuly
septembernovember
jan 2006march
mayjuly
septembernovember
jan 2007march
mayjuly
septembernovember
jan 2008march
mayjuly
septembernovember
jan 2009march
US Wheat US Corn Thai Rice
2. Global grain price trends
Thai Rice
US Wheat
US Corn
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 5
Rice & Oil Price trends
www.infoarroz.org/portal/es/index.php
www.wtrg.com/daily/crudeoilprice.html#Crude
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 6
3. Global price trends and regional prices
1. Global prices & regional export market pricesThai US & Mercosur
2. Global prices & domestic market pricesMercosur and others South American countries
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 7
Global rice prices & regional prices
Export rice market prices Index 100 = October 2007
5075
100125150175200225250275300325
Jan
2007 fev
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Jan
2008 fev
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Jan
2009 fev
mar apr
Usa2/4Thai100Mercosur
Global prices of rice and domestic prices Index 100 = October 2007
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
Jan 2
007
mar
may jul sep
nov
Jan 2
008
mar
may jul sep
nov
Jan 2
009
mar
Thai100Usa2/4Col PaddyArg PaddyCepea Index Bra
Thai prices : Rise 3 times
US prices : Rise 100%
Domestic prices : Rise 50-75%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 8
Rice Trade Outlook in the Americas
World imports 30 Millions tons
Americas 4.5 Mt
Imports-share15% Global trade
World exports30 Millions tons
Americas 5.5 Mt
Exports-share18% Global trade
US exports3 – 3.1 Mt
Mercosur exports1.9Mt
Central Am & Caribbean Imports
2 – 2.3Mt
South Am Imports1,1Mt
North Am Imports1.1 Mt25%
50%
25%
60%
35%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 9
Rice import trends in the Americas
Significant importsstarted in 1990’s & 2000’s (Brazil, Cuba, Mexico, Haiti, Peru, Colombia…) where production decline (low prices, high production costs and lack of credit)
In thousand tons
Rice Imports
0500
1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 000
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
AMERICAS
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 10
Main Rice Importers in the Americas
In Thousand tons
Rice Imports
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
BrazilIn Thousand tons
Rice Imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
Cuba
In Thousand tons
Rice Imports0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
MexicoIn Thousand tons
Rice Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
40019
60/19
6119
62/19
6319
64/19
6519
66/19
6719
68/19
6919
70/19
7119
72/19
7319
74/19
7519
76/19
7719
78/19
7919
80/19
8119
82/19
8319
84/19
8519
86/19
8719
88/19
8919
90/19
9119
92/19
9319
94/19
9519
96/19
9719
98/19
9920
00/20
0120
02/20
0320
04/20
0520
06/20
0720
08/20
09
Haiti
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 11
Others Rice Importers - Americas
In Thousand tons
Rice Imports
050
100150200250300350400450500
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
PeruIn Thousand tons
Rice Imports0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
Colombia
In Thousand tons
Rice Imports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
CanadaIn Thousand tons
Rice Imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
United States
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 12
Rice Imports in the Americas: recent impacts ?
In Thousand tons
South America
North America
Central America & Caribbean
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
Recent Import Trends
+1%
+3%
+4%
+4%
+2%
+5%
-1%
-2%
+4%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 13
Rice export trends in the Americas
First period: one main exporter (USA) Second period: two areas (USA & Mercosur countries)Recent period: various areas (USA, Uruguay, Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, Ecuador, Venezuela)
In thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
AMERICAS
2 millions tons
About 3 millions tons
5 millions tons
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 14
Main Rice Exporters in the Americas
In Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0100200300400500600700800900
1 000
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
UruguayIn Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
United States
In Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
ArgentinaIn Thousand tons
Rice Exports
050
100150200250300350400450500
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
Brazil
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 15
Other Rice Exporters in the Americas
In Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
GuyanaIn Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
Ecuador
In Thousand tons
Rice Exports0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
VenezuelaIn Thousand tons
Rice Exports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960
/1961
1962
/1963
1964
/1965
1966
/1967
1968
/1969
1970
/1971
1972
/1973
1974
/1975
1976
/1977
1978
/1979
1980
/1981
1982
/1983
1984
/1985
1986
/1987
1988
/1989
1990
/1991
1992
/1993
1994
/1995
1996
/1997
1998
/1999
2000
/2001
2002
/2003
2004
/2005
2006
/2007
2008
/2009
Suriname
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 16
Rice Exports in the Americas: recent impacts ?
In Thousand tons
MERCOSUR
USA
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010
Recent Export Trends
+1,5%
-14% +4%
15%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 17
Almost rice imports are supplied by regional exporters:
USA is a major exporter to Mexico and CanadaArgentina and Uruguay are major exporters to BrazilGuyana is a major exporter to Jamaica and Trinidad & TobagoEcuador exports Colombia & Peru
Rice Americas Trade is traditional a regional market
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 18
Rice Exports in the Americas: New trends
New destinationsAfricaMiddle EastFar EastEurope
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 19
News destinations for US Rice ?
US Exports in 2007-2008Decrease⌧ North and Central America & Caribbean
(traditional markets) but still main market (60% export-share). Future less ? 50% ?
Increase⌧ South America (Colombia, Venezuela)⌧ Middle East (Jordan, Saudi Arabia)⌧ Southeast Asia (Philippines)⌧ Sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana)⌧ Oceania (Papua New Guinea)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 20
And Mercosur Rice ?
Mercosur Exports in 2007-2009Brazil is still the traditional market for Uruguayan & Argentinean riceNews contacts in African markets, Europe and Near EastBrazil: A new export actor ? (West Africa and South Africa)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 21
6. Rice Production Outlook in the Americas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
areas
Production
Yields
10 Mt
35 Mt
6,5 Mha
5 Mha
9,5 Mha
+ 25 Millions ton from 1960’s
Yields x 2.5 times
2 ton/ha
5.2 ton/haRice is grown in all
Americas Countries.Rice Areas
decreasedYields trends rose
since 1980’s Green Revolution, irrigated areas
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 22
Rice Production in the Americas by Main Regions (2008-09)
La Plata River Basin11,65 Mtons (33%)
West Center & North
3,5 Mtons(10%)
Colombian & Venezuelian Llanos3,1 Mtons (9%)
Ecuador0,80 Mtons
Peru2,55 Mtons
Southern States7,2 Mtons (24%)
California1,9 Mtons (6%)
Chile0,13 Mtons
Argentina1,25 Mtons
Uruguay1,35 Mtons
South Brazil8,95 Mtons
Caribbean1,2 Mtons (3%)
USA 9,1Mtons (26%) Andes area (11%)
Bolivia0,4 Mtons
Guyana & Suriname
0,7Mtons (2%)
Central America1,1 Mtons (3%)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 23
Regional Production in 2009 was affected by recent price rises ?
Production increase by areasNorth and South AmericaBrazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Argentina, Mexico, USA
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 24
6. Rice Consumption Outlook
Rice consumption in the AmericasRice Consumption by RegionsRice Consumption Trends
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 25
Consumption by regions in the Americas
Average in Americas : 27kg/caputHigher consumers : Caribbean countries (45 kg/caput ) Lowers consumers : North America (10 kg/caput); Central America (12 kg/caput) South American countries (36 kg/caput),
12 kg/caput 45 kg/caput
10 kg/caput
36 kg/caput
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 26
Rice Consumption Change by Regions in the Americas
2008/092007/082006/07
-468+295
+8+97
+743-132+26+78
%Consumption change (1000 t)
3%+479South America7%+375North America-2%-23Central America-3%-62Caribbean
Source : Fas-USDA, 2009
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 27
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Consumption
Consumption caput
Rice Consumption Trends in the Americas
Million tons Kg caput
15 kg/caput
27 kg/caput
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 28
7. Considerations for Future Trends
While significant improvement in rice production in LAC, regional demand still surpasses production
All most Caribbean countries have a little potential of domestic production ; they will continue to be rice importers
In several LAC countries production remains below the national potential
Most reasons : low yields in irrigated rice sector ; in many this countries the yield gap is large ; an opportunity of additional production
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 29
Patricio MPatricio Mééndez del Villarndez del Villar
[email protected]@cirad.fr
Thanks you very much!Thanks you very much!
