Central Region Collaboration Guidelines

Central Region Central Region Collaboration GuidelinesCollaboration Guidelines

Prepared by the CR IFPS Prepared by the CR IFPS Methodology Team:Methodology Team:

Kevin Darmofal (ICT)Kevin Darmofal (ICT) Steve Hentz (MKX)Steve Hentz (MKX) Andy Ervin (DVN)Andy Ervin (DVN)

Scott Reiter (DDC)Scott Reiter (DDC) Pat Murphy (UNR)Pat Murphy (UNR) Tom Hultquist (MQT)Tom Hultquist (MQT)

Tom Spriggs (LSX)Tom Spriggs (LSX) Paul Frisbie (GJT)Paul Frisbie (GJT) Jeff Manion (CRH)Jeff Manion (CRH)

Step 1-AttitudeStep 1-Attitude

• Approach collaboration with an Approach collaboration with an open open mindmind

• Be willing to Be willing to listenlisten as well as as well as shareshare ideas/thoughts. ideas/thoughts.

• The forecaster’s tone in chat (12 Planet) The forecaster’s tone in chat (12 Planet) and/or phone, should be one which and/or phone, should be one which conveys to others that you are conveys to others that you are willing willing to negotiateto negotiate..

Step 2-Use Your GridsStep 2-Use Your Grids

• Work from the idea that the Work from the idea that the inherited inherited gridsgrids are the best (collaborated) are the best (collaborated) forecastforecast

• They should be the They should be the starting or starting or reference pointreference point from which future from which future changes (if any) will be made. changes (if any) will be made.

• This allows all to start on a level This allows all to start on a level (similar) playing field.(similar) playing field.

Step 3-Share EarlyStep 3-Share Early

• After your initial look at the forecast data, After your initial look at the forecast data, express your initial thoughts in chatexpress your initial thoughts in chat. . Identify Identify offices you are talking to in messageoffices you are talking to in message

• Let others know Let others know early in the forecast processearly in the forecast process what looks good (e.g. grids that need little, if what looks good (e.g. grids that need little, if any, changes) and what changes you see any, changes) and what changes you see that may be needed in the forecast. that may be needed in the forecast.

• Be sure to Be sure to address major points and address major points and significant changessignificant changes. .

Step 3 (cont.)Step 3 (cont.)

• Example 1Example 1– DDC_long: PUB GLD ICT… latest model suites continue to DDC_long: PUB GLD ICT… latest model suites continue to

support a faster progression of arctic cold front, with front support a faster progression of arctic cold front, with front moving into my CWA on Day 4 instead of Day 5. Would like to moving into my CWA on Day 4 instead of Day 5. Would like to at least trend this way, what do you all think?at least trend this way, what do you all think?

• Example 2Example 2– MKX_long: latest analysis and model consensus continue to MKX_long: latest analysis and model consensus continue to

support the spirit of the going forecast. Prelim expectations are support the spirit of the going forecast. Prelim expectations are that little, if any changes are needed to overall grids in Days 1 that little, if any changes are needed to overall grids in Days 1 and 2. Just beginning to look at forecast for Days 3 and beyond, and 2. Just beginning to look at forecast for Days 3 and beyond, will get back with prelim thoughts shortly.will get back with prelim thoughts shortly.

Step 4-Be ThereStep 4-Be There

• Be responsive to questionsBe responsive to questions from from others. others.

• If you have no comment yet, say so. If If you have no comment yet, say so. If you are busy with something else at the you are busy with something else at the moment, say so. Let others know you moment, say so. Let others know you are there. are there.

• Saying somethingSaying something is better than not is better than not saying anything. saying anything.


• Example 3aExample 3a– EAX_short: To TOPEKA, with slower moisture return expected EAX_short: To TOPEKA, with slower moisture return expected

into eastern KS/western MO tonight, am considering lowering or into eastern KS/western MO tonight, am considering lowering or removing PoPs tonight. What are your thoughts? removing PoPs tonight. What are your thoughts?

– TOP_short: I have been delayed in looking at data, due to an TOP_short: I have been delayed in looking at data, due to an admin/computer problem in the office. Will get back to you admin/computer problem in the office. Will get back to you shortly...shortly...

• ACCEPTABLE:ACCEPTABLE: Though Topeka cannot Though Topeka cannot answer the question yet, they explain answer the question yet, they explain why and keep the lines of why and keep the lines of communication open.communication open.


• Example 3bExample 3b– EAX_short: To TOPEKA,with slower moisture return expected EAX_short: To TOPEKA,with slower moisture return expected

into eastern KS/western MO tonight, am considering lowering or into eastern KS/western MO tonight, am considering lowering or removing PoPs tonight. What are your thoughts?removing PoPs tonight. What are your thoughts?

(No response from TOP. Grids for period in (No response from TOP. Grids for period in question are sent 3 hours later).question are sent 3 hours later).

• UNACCEPTABLE:UNACCEPTABLE: Same question posed by Same question posed by EAX, however they are left to ponder what EAX, however they are left to ponder what TOP is thinking. The communication link is TOP is thinking. The communication link is broken, with late post of grids allowing little broken, with late post of grids allowing little time to resolve any differences.time to resolve any differences.

Step 5-Show GridsStep 5-Show Grids

• ShareShare your your meteorological thoughtsmeteorological thoughts in in concert with your concert with your ISC gridsISC grids. .

• This should be done early and often This should be done early and often throughout the forecast process. Do throughout the forecast process. Do not wait to post all grids at once toward not wait to post all grids at once toward the end of the process. the end of the process.

• Save and send prelim grids (with Save and send prelim grids (with thoughts) as you work through the thoughts) as you work through the forecast day. forecast day.


• Example 4aExample 4a– OAX_short: continue to prefer the ETA solution through 72 hrs in OAX_short: continue to prefer the ETA solution through 72 hrs in

general.general. Max temps may be warmer than we currently Max temps may be warmer than we currently have for Fri. Progd 850mb temps would support temps about 5 have for Fri. Progd 850mb temps would support temps about 5 degrees warmer. Am open to thoughts and willing to degrees warmer. Am open to thoughts and willing to compromise. Will send my prelim grids for Days 1 and 2 shortly. compromise. Will send my prelim grids for Days 1 and 2 shortly.

• Example 4bExample 4b– OAX_long: the shortwave dropping through the Plains looks a OAX_long: the shortwave dropping through the Plains looks a

little more vigorous on Day 3 now. Moisture return looks better little more vigorous on Day 3 now. Moisture return looks better as well, with low level flow backed more than previously thought. as well, with low level flow backed more than previously thought. Considering low PoP now and have shown this in grids just sent Considering low PoP now and have shown this in grids just sent for Sat/Sat ngt. By no means a sure thing, and can go either for Sat/Sat ngt. By no means a sure thing, and can go either way, depending on thoughts from surrounding offices. What are way, depending on thoughts from surrounding offices. What are your thoughts GID, TOP?your thoughts GID, TOP?

Step 5 (cont.)Step 5 (cont.)• Example 4cExample 4c

– OAX_long: made minor tweaks to Days 3 grids based on OAX_long: made minor tweaks to Days 3 grids based on coordination from surrounding offices. Have sent to ISC for coordination from surrounding offices. Have sent to ISC for viewing. Am working on Day 4 to 7 grids now. Do not expect viewing. Am working on Day 4 to 7 grids now. Do not expect any major changes. Hope to have prelim thoughts and ISC grids any major changes. Hope to have prelim thoughts and ISC grids in by the top of next hour.in by the top of next hour.

• Examples 4a-4c are Examples 4a-4c are ACCEPTABLEACCEPTABLE. Sending your . Sending your thoughts and/or ISC grids in chunks, as you work thoughts and/or ISC grids in chunks, as you work through the forecast process, allows your through the forecast process, allows your neighboring offices time to see and respond to your neighboring offices time to see and respond to your thoughts earlier in the forecast process. thoughts earlier in the forecast process. Remember, Remember, they are just preliminary grids and subject to change they are just preliminary grids and subject to change through the collaboration process.through the collaboration process. Get your Get your thoughts out early and show your hand.thoughts out early and show your hand.

• This will allow more time to work out any potential This will allow more time to work out any potential discrepancies.discrepancies.


• Example 5Example 5– ICT_long: grids sent to ISC for Days 1 to 7. Comments ICT_long: grids sent to ISC for Days 1 to 7. Comments

welcome.welcome.

• UNACCEPTABLE.UNACCEPTABLE. Waiting to show your Waiting to show your hand all at once (i.e. sending all preliminary hand all at once (i.e. sending all preliminary grid elements for Days 1 to 7), should be grid elements for Days 1 to 7), should be avoided, especially if done late in the avoided, especially if done late in the forecast process. forecast process.

• This is more along the lines of “notification” This is more along the lines of “notification” and shows less willingness to negotiate, and shows less willingness to negotiate, share thoughts, and is detrimental to the share thoughts, and is detrimental to the collaboration process. collaboration process.

Step 6-Don’t Go AloneStep 6-Don’t Go Alone

• Significant changes must be collaborated!Significant changes must be collaborated! • Express your meteorological thoughts/reasons Express your meteorological thoughts/reasons

before you make too many changes in the gridsbefore you make too many changes in the grids. . • Negotiate and compromise with your Negotiate and compromise with your

neighboring offices. neighboring offices. • When a minority view still exists, then When a minority view still exists, then

consensus should take precedence.consensus should take precedence. • If you can’t get “buy-in” from the majority, then If you can’t get “buy-in” from the majority, then

you should not make the proposed change if it you should not make the proposed change if it will put the grids out of meteorological will put the grids out of meteorological tolerance. tolerance.

• As a general rule, As a general rule, going it alone should be going it alone should be avoidedavoided..


• There may be times when a meteorological There may be times when a meteorological event is imminent (in the short term; event is imminent (in the short term; generally in the 0 to 24 hour period) that will generally in the 0 to 24 hour period) that will mainly affect your CWA, or area of concern.mainly affect your CWA, or area of concern.

• An attempt to collaborate should be made. An attempt to collaborate should be made. • If differences cannot be resolved to within If differences cannot be resolved to within

tolerance, then the expected meteorological tolerance, then the expected meteorological event should be represented in the grids as event should be represented in the grids as the forecaster deems appropriate, to best the forecaster deems appropriate, to best serve his/her local users in the affected serve his/her local users in the affected CWA.CWA.

Step 7-High Impact Step 7-High Impact LeadersLeaders

• Complex weather situationsComplex weather situations (such as winter (such as winter storms or those that require headlines, etc.) storms or those that require headlines, etc.) will likely test the collaboration processwill likely test the collaboration process. .

• If the affected If the affected offices offices can reasonably agree can reasonably agree on the CWA(s) that will be on the CWA(s) that will be impacted the impacted the greatestgreatest by the storm, then these offices by the storm, then these offices should take the lead in setting the should take the lead in setting the meteorological tone for the eventmeteorological tone for the event, with , with adjacent offices becoming willing partners to adjacent offices becoming willing partners to blend in. This should be discussed in chat blend in. This should be discussed in chat early in the forecast process. early in the forecast process.


• If meteorological differences of opinion If meteorological differences of opinion cannot be worked out, then it is cannot be worked out, then it is suggested that the HPC be used as a suggested that the HPC be used as a tie-breaker as to which area will be tie-breaker as to which area will be impacted the greatest (if reasonably impacted the greatest (if reasonably possible to determine). possible to determine).

• This should be discussed among the This should be discussed among the affected WFO’s and the HPC in the chat affected WFO’s and the HPC in the chat room.room.

Step 8-DocumentStep 8-Document

• Document collaboration successes and Document collaboration successes and breakdowns. breakdowns. We learn through our successes We learn through our successes and failures. If the process breaks down or and failures. If the process breaks down or problems were noted during the collaboration problems were noted during the collaboration process, report it to supervisor. process, report it to supervisor.

• Offices need to develop effective QC or Offices need to develop effective QC or verification methods to ascertain and improve verification methods to ascertain and improve forecast skill. forecast skill.

• Document, through local case studies, when Document, through local case studies, when significant differences arise in meteorological significant differences arise in meteorological expectations, and share what was learned by expectations, and share what was learned by the outcome of such events.the outcome of such events.

Final Step!!Final Step!!

If you are communicating in chat,If you are communicating in chat,

with a willingness to negotiate,with a willingness to negotiate,

doing so early and often,doing so early and often,

then you should end up with a well-then you should end up with a well-collaborated forecast, that is as collaborated forecast, that is as seamless as the science allows. seamless as the science allows.

Documents

Central Region Collaboration Guidelines