Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA-CE ─ A Central European Initiative for Severe Weather Warnings and Improved Communication Strategies on a trans-national Level

39th Conference on Broadcast MeteorologyConference on Weather Warnings and Communication

Oklahoma City, OK, 22-24 June 2011

Alexander KannIngo Meirold-MautnerBenedikt BicaYong Wang

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

INCA Central EuropeIntegrated nowcasting for the Central European area

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Outline

The Central Europe (CE) Programme, co-financed by the ERDF (European Regional Development Fund)

INCA-CE: Integrated Nowcasting for the Central European area- Partnership

- Objectives

The INCA systemIntegrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis

INCA Applications Recent research on INCA

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

The Central Europe Programme

8 EU countries 1 third country

Surface:Around 1.050.000 km²

Population: Around 148 million citizens

7 (and more) languages4 Programme Priorities: Innovation Accessibility Environment Competitiveness and attractiveness of cities and regions

© JTS, www.central2013.eu

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA-CE: Some benchmarks

• 16 partners from 8 CE countries• Weather services• Research institutions• National and local authorities

• Project budget: 3.3 million € (4.7 million US$)

• 80% of overall budget is covered by EU• Project duration: Apr 2010 – Sep 2013

• http://www.inca-ce.eu

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Objectives

Reducing impact of weather-related natural disasters (e.g. windstorms, flooding, icing) by establishing a warn-on-forecast system.

Improvement of risk management standards and methodology in order to enable management authorities to issue more detailed assessments and warnings.

More precise estimation of weather-related risks and potential hazards in the private sector.

Improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of severe weather warnings.

Output

A web-based, trans-national weather information system

using a state-of-the-art nowcasting method

Crisis management

und risk prevention

Operational hydrology

Civil protection

Road managementINCA

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

The INCA Nowcasting system

Automated analyses and very-short range forecasts (first 12 hours) at very high resolution (1 km)- Operational flash flood forecasting and warning

- Additional forecasting tool in weather warnings

- Automated forecasts for road maintenance, power generation, …

Standard domain

Region: Eastern Alps

Domain size: 600 x 350 km

Elevation range: 100 - 4000 m

Resolution: horizontal: 1km, vertical: 125 - 200 m, time: 15 min - 1 h

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

The INCA Nowcasting system

→ Analyses→ Nowcasts→ Forecasts

ALADINlimited area

model

INCA System

Hydrological Services

Hydrological Forecasting

System

Observations

Radar data

Satellite data

High resolutiontopographic data

ECMWF, Reading

ECMWFglobal model

Products,Warnings, Applications...

NWP OBS

RADAR

SAT

TOPO

Météo France, Toulouse

ARPEGEglobal model

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

2-D Analyses und Forecasts• Precipitation• Precipitation type• Cloudiness• Global radiation

3-D Analyses und Forecasts• Temperature• Humidity• Wind

INCA Variables

2-D Convective Analyses Fields• CAPE• CIN• LCL• LFC• Instability Indices (LI, Showalter, ..)• Trigger-Temperature-Deficit• Equivalent Potential Temperature• Moisture convergence• Mass convergence

Other derived 2-D Fields• Snowfall line• Icing potential• Wind chill

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Some sample INCA fields

T

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MOCON

ff, dd

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA Application in AustriaAutomatic warnings for civil protection and for the general public

Gust monitor Lake Neusiedl

Severe weatherwarnings

http://www.interchalet.com

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

INCA precipitation analysis 20090723

Station measurements are interpolated onto INCA grid by inverse distance weighting Radar field is scaled with climatology and latest surface observations Combination of these two fields in order to reproduce station measurements and keep structures

of radar field in-between The better the radar view, the more weight its structures receive, and vice versa Consideration of elevation effects during interpolation

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Mou

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n pr

ecip

itatio

n

Valley precipitation

Problem: unreasonably high values for strong precipitation events

Constant amplification factor

Valley precipitationM

ount

ain

prec

ipita

tion

Problem: unreasonably low values for strong precipitation events

Dependence on intensity

Recent research on INCAParameterization of elevation effects

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Corresponds to the physics of orographic precipitation (seeder-feeder) process

Valley precipitation

Mou

ntai

n pr

ecip

itatio

n

Limited by droplet growth

Limited by condensation rate

multiplicative

additive

Improved dependence on intensity

Haiden and Pistotnik, 2009

Parameterization of elevation effects

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Effects of elevation dependence in INCA

No elevation dependence

Elevation dependence

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Comparison of modeled and observed runoffs

MAE reduction: - 61.5 %

No elevation dependence used

Elevation dependence

Red bold line: Median of simulation errors at all gauges

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Verification INCA Temperature

Error reduction due to station observations

Error reduction due to improved downscaling

INCA (dashed lines) and ALADIN (solid lines) mean absolute forecast errors(MAE) of temperature, averaged over all stations, for July 2009 (grey) and January 2010 (black).

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

MAE Winter 2008/2009 MAE Summer 2009

Error reduction due to Nowcasting

Verification INCA Precipitation

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

10th EMS / 8th ECAC13 – 17 Sept, Zürich, Switzerland

Thank you for your attention !

http://www.inca-ce.eu

Haiden, T., A. Kann, C. Wittmann, G. Pistotnik, B. Bica and C. Gruber, 2011: The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System and Its Validation over the Eastern Alpine Region. Weather and Forecasting, 26/2, pp. 166-183.