Center of Excellence COMPLEX EMERGENCIES Characteristics / Realities / Threats Col (Ret) Peter Leentjes Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and

Center of Excellence

COMPLEX EMERGENCIESCOMPLEX EMERGENCIES

Characteristics / Realities / ThreatsCharacteristics / Realities / Threats

Col (Ret) Peter LeentjesCenter of Excellence inDisaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance


COMPLEX EMERGENCIES

Describe current modelsDescribe current models Establish the Establish the

EnvironmentEnvironment Discuss Features & Discuss Features &

ProcessProcess ThreatsThreats


Twelve Top Indicators

Mounting Demographic PressuresMounting Demographic Pressures Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally

Displaced Persons creating Complex Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian EmergenciesHumanitarian Emergencies

Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group ParanoiaGrievance or Group Paranoia

Chronic and sustained Human FlightChronic and sustained Human Flight Uneven Economic Development along Group Uneven Economic Development along Group

LinesLines Sharp or Severe Economic DeclineSharp or Severe Economic DeclinePauline Baker & Angeli Weller


Twelve Top Indicators (Cont’d)

Criminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the StateCriminalization and/or Delegitimizing of the State Progressive Deterioration of Public servicesProgressive Deterioration of Public services Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of

Law and Widespread Violation of Human RightsLaw and Widespread Violation of Human Rights Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a

State”State” Rise of fictionalized ÉlitesRise of fictionalized Élites Intervention of Other States or External Political Intervention of Other States or External Political

ActorsActors

Pauline Baker & Angeli Weller

The Complex Emergency Model


Definition

“A complex emergency is a humanitarian crisis in a country, region or society where there is a dramatic disruption in the

political, economic and social situation, resulting from internal or external conflict or natural disaster, seriously disrupting the population’s capacity to survive and the national authorities’

capacity to respond, and which requires a consolidated multi-sectoral international response”

IASC of the United Nations


ModernComplex Emergencies

DisasterResponse

HumanitarianAssistance

PeaceOperations


DisasterResponse


PeaceOperations

Range of Military Activity

Support

Combat

Security ComplianceOperations

Support Security



DisasterResponse


PeaceOperations

Range of Civilian Activity

Support

CM

Humanitar

ianMitig

ation




DisasterManagement


PeaceOperations

Civil - Military Coordination


What Is Driving This New Model?


Notion of State Security

Shift from military security to human security Shift from military security to human security Individual rights are predominateIndividual rights are predominate State is shrinking - smaller governments, State is shrinking - smaller governments,

larger larger demands Threats to national and trans-national securityThreats to national and trans-national security National security is now linked to regional National security is now linked to regional

security - trans-border threatssecurity - trans-border threats Globalization & privatization are reducing Globalization & privatization are reducing

nation’s reach and ability to control many nation’s reach and ability to control many aspects impacting on the nationaspects impacting on the nation


ECONOMIC SHIFT

Changing expectations – Changing expectations – individual basedindividual based

Emboldened populationsEmboldened populations Increased economic disparityIncreased economic disparity Increased poverty – challenge to Increased poverty – challenge to

stabilitystability Economic diversion of resourcesEconomic diversion of resources


SHIFT FROM INTERSTATE TO INTRASTATE CONFLICT

Incidence of violence within states Incidence of violence within states increasingincreasing

Compromises the prosperity / Compromises the prosperity / stability / survival of the statestability / survival of the state

Internal conflict provides the Internal conflict provides the breeding ground for Terrorism and breeding ground for Terrorism and Infectious DiseaseInfectious Disease

Internal conflict cannot be Internal conflict cannot be contained within borderscontained within borders


SOVEREIGNTY

No longer exclusive domain of the No longer exclusive domain of the statestate

State legitimacy is erodingState legitimacy is eroding Human rightsHuman rights Globalization of resource movementGlobalization of resource movement International accordsInternational accords Pluralism – ethnicityPluralism – ethnicity Movement of populationsMovement of populations

Features of Complex Emergencies


Disrespect for Humanitarian Norms Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the Civilian Casualties are not incidental but the

outcome of political strategiesoutcome of political strategies Civilians targets have become the objectiveCivilians targets have become the objective 90% of Casualties are civilian90% of Casualties are civilian The full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian communityThe full brutality of conflict is focused on the civilian community

Loss of immunity for humanitarian workersLoss of immunity for humanitarian workers formerly could work without threat/fearformerly could work without threat/fear today they are often targetstoday they are often targets aid is politicizedaid is politicized NGOs, ICRC/MSF have all sufferedNGOs, ICRC/MSF have all suffered

Impact on the ability of the humanitarian Impact on the ability of the humanitarian agencies to deliver aidagencies to deliver aid


Use of Humanitarian Action to Substitute for Political Action

Humanitarian action is being used Humanitarian action is being used as a stopgap which may make the as a stopgap which may make the situation worse not bettersituation worse not better

Humanitarian work is undermined Humanitarian work is undermined in the absence of measures in the absence of measures focused on resolving the focused on resolving the underlying causes of sufferingunderlying causes of suffering


Chaotic Conditions in Intra-State Conflict

More intractable conflicts exist More intractable conflicts exist - difficult to resolve- difficult to resolve

Brutality is on the increaseBrutality is on the increase Landmines are found in dozens Landmines are found in dozens

of countries - 100 million of countries - 100 million estimateestimate

Small Arms proliferationSmall Arms proliferation


Presence of Military and Humanitarians in a Complex

Emergency Neutrality of the Humanitarians is Neutrality of the Humanitarians is

affectedaffected Military focus on short term rather Military focus on short term rather

than long term political solutionsthan long term political solutions The role and capacities of the The role and capacities of the

military in peace operationsmilitary in peace operations Differing levels of security possibleDiffering levels of security possible


Dilemmas of Humanitarian Assistance

Focused on the basis of need - can Focused on the basis of need - can create animositiescreate animosities

Aid has become a political toolAid has become a political tool Aid can make the security situation Aid can make the security situation

worseworse Aid may be fueling the conflictAid may be fueling the conflict Aid as a source of revenueAid as a source of revenue

– TheftTheft– ExtortionExtortion– Black marketBlack market– Part of the problemPart of the problem


RECENT TRENDS Increased Risks for Field Staff of all Increased Risks for Field Staff of all

Organizations in the FieldOrganizations in the Field aid is politicizedaid is politicized has become a player in the conflictshas become a player in the conflicts

UN Affiliation UN Affiliation in the past a shield and protectionin the past a shield and protection today, regardless of legal process today, regardless of legal process

includes riskincludes risk International Organizations/NGOsInternational Organizations/NGOs

all at riskall at risk


THREATS THAT CREATE COMPLEX EMERGENCIES

Ongoing ConflictOngoing Conflict Population DisplacementPopulation Displacement Emerging or Re-emerging Emerging or Re-emerging

Infectious DiseaseInfectious Disease TerrorismTerrorism GlobalizationGlobalization


ONGOING CONFLICT

Cannot be contained within bordersCannot be contained within borders Weapons proliferation in regionsWeapons proliferation in regions National interests of the neighborsNational interests of the neighbors Lack of or weak international responseLack of or weak international response Resource extractionResource extraction Financial GainsFinancial Gains Criminal activitiesCriminal activities Aid as a tool to continue conflictsAid as a tool to continue conflicts

Population Displacement

The The

Number 2 Number 2

ThreatThreat


Population Displacement Legal Concept of DisplacedLegal Concept of Displaced

– Refugees - narrow definition & Refugees - narrow definition & international supportinternational support

– IDPs - not supportedIDPs - not supported– Economic RefugeesEconomic Refugees– Those fleeing natural disastersThose fleeing natural disasters– MigrantsMigrants– EvacueesEvacuees– Expelled Expelled

Present Major Security ThreatPresent Major Security Threat


Refugees as a Threat Not a threat in themselves Not a threat in themselves High numbers present a direct economic and cultural threatHigh numbers present a direct economic and cultural threat Provision of services to refugee populations stress host Provision of services to refugee populations stress host

nationsnations If they do not receive aid they destroy the local natural If they do not receive aid they destroy the local natural

resourcesresources Location of camps & control by host nationLocation of camps & control by host nation Breeding ground for Terrorism within campsBreeding ground for Terrorism within camps Armed individuals - How do you deal with themArmed individuals - How do you deal with them Aid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aidAid provided by locals - yet they cannot receive aid Threat to the local economyThreat to the local economy Destroy the local labor marketDestroy the local labor market


Emerging and Re-emerging Diseases


INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA

Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge Emergent diseases pose a significant challenge to security and national interests - Impairs State to security and national interests - Impairs State capacity to maintain securitycapacity to maintain security

Non traditional threat – how do you define it in Non traditional threat – how do you define it in the spectrum of national interests (vital - war, the spectrum of national interests (vital - war, important – devote resources)important – devote resources)

Challenges orthodox theories of international Challenges orthodox theories of international relationsrelations

Normal evaluation of the threat based on Normal evaluation of the threat based on relative military capacities is no longer valid– relative military capacities is no longer valid– pales in comparisonpales in comparison


INCLUDE DISEASE IN THE SECURITY AGENDA (Cont’d)

Disease is much more harmful to the Disease is much more harmful to the Nation and National securityNation and National security

Shift to internal state conflict provides a Shift to internal state conflict provides a breeding ground for new diseasesbreeding ground for new diseases

Vectors:Population dislocations & their Vectors:Population dislocations & their consequences, living styles, consequences, living styles, international travel, extended international travel, extended commerce, climate change, war or commerce, climate change, war or economic declineeconomic decline

Cannot be contained within bordersCannot be contained within borders


Deadly SevenDeadly Seven - - TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C, TB, HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Hepatitis B/C, Respiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measlesRespiratory Infections, Diarrheal Diseases, measles

Emergent Infectious DiseaseEmergent Infectious Disease Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1Ratio of Deaths From Disease to War - 52:1 Potential Weapon of War Potential Weapon of War Potential Economic WeaponPotential Economic Weapon Enormous Implications for State Survival, Enormous Implications for State Survival,

Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic Stability, Prosperity, socio-economic developmentdevelopment

Trade Embargoes & Travel RestrictionsTrade Embargoes & Travel Restrictions

INFECTIOUS DISEASE


REASONS FOR RESURGENCE NEW VECTORS

Population dislocationsPopulation dislocations Sudden population movements Sudden population movements

(humanitarian emergencies)(humanitarian emergencies) Living styles – urbanizationLiving styles – urbanization Rising international travelRising international travel Extended commerceExtended commerce Inappropriate use of antibioticsInappropriate use of antibiotics Breakdown of public health due to Breakdown of public health due to

conflict or economic declineconflict or economic decline Climate changesClimate changes


IMPLICATIONS FOR STATE SURVIVAL/STABILITY/PROSPERITY

Premature death and debilitation of the Premature death and debilitation of the populationpopulation

Erodes worker productivityErodes worker productivity Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy Undermines state prosperity and legitimacy High levels of psychological stress in High levels of psychological stress in

populationpopulation Fosters internal and external migrationFosters internal and external migration Migration to citiesMigration to cities Threatens states ability to defend itself and Threatens states ability to defend itself and

project forceproject force Generates institutional fragilityGenerates institutional fragility

TERRORISM

The The

conflict tool conflict tool

of the 1990sof the 1990s


Terrorism is Not New Weapon of choice in intra-state conflictWeapon of choice in intra-state conflict Targeting of civilians in conflictTargeting of civilians in conflict Rape as a weapon of warRape as a weapon of war The destruction of cultural and religious The destruction of cultural and religious

monumentsmonuments Ethnic cleansingEthnic cleansing GenocideGenocide Forced population displacementsForced population displacements BombingBombing Killing of political oppositionKilling of political opposition Attacks on ethnic groupsAttacks on ethnic groups


Globalization

Ability to Participate in Economic Ability to Participate in Economic ModelsModels

Slow Socioeconomic DevelopmentSlow Socioeconomic Development Challenge to Democratic Challenge to Democratic

DevelopmentDevelopment Provoke Economic Decay, social Provoke Economic Decay, social

Fragmentation, Political Fragmentation, Political DestabilizationDestabilization

Pressures on National Support Pressures on National Support Services such as HealthServices such as Health


CONSEQUENCES OF THE THREATS

State capacity and security is impairedState capacity and security is impaired Diminishes prospects for state survival and Diminishes prospects for state survival and

prosperityprosperity Destroys State ability to meet needsDestroys State ability to meet needs

– SurvivalSurvival– Protection from physical harm (internal, Protection from physical harm (internal,

external, ecological threats)external, ecological threats)– Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity– Territorial integrityTerritorial integrity– Effective governanceEffective governance– StabilityStability

Generates Conflict

Documents

Center of Excellence COMPLEX EMERGENCIES Characteristics / Realities / Threats Col (Ret) Peter Leentjes Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and