Center forNonproliferationStudies

Monterey Institute of International Monterey Institute of International StudiesStudies

CNS Open-Source Information CollectionCNS Open-Source Information CollectionDr. John W.R. LepingwellDr. John W.R. Lepingwell

The Monterey Institute of International Studies

Private educational institutionPrivate educational institution Graduate education to Masters degreeGraduate education to Masters degree International emphasis, stress on language International emphasis, stress on language

trainingtraining 800 students, many foreign students800 students, many foreign students Degree programs in:Degree programs in:

• International Policy StudiesInternational Policy Studies

• International Environmental PolicyInternational Environmental Policy

• Business Administration (MBA)Business Administration (MBA)

• Translation and InterpretationTranslation and Interpretation

The Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Founded 1989 by Dr. William PotterFounded 1989 by Dr. William Potter• Expertise in Soviet/Russian StudiesExpertise in Soviet/Russian Studies

• Expertise in Nonproliferation IssuesExpertise in Nonproliferation Issues

• Post-1991: Combining both areas to emphasize Post-1991: Combining both areas to emphasize nonproliferation issues in the former Soviet Unionnonproliferation issues in the former Soviet Union

Training and Research CenterTraining and Research Center 40 Staff members, 50 Graduate 40 Staff members, 50 Graduate

AssistantsAssistants

CNS Mission

The mission of the Center for The mission of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies is to Nonproliferation Studies is to combat the spread of weapons of combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction by training the mass destruction by training the next generation of nonproliferation next generation of nonproliferation specialists and disseminating specialists and disseminating timely information and analysistimely information and analysis

CNS Staff

40+ Full-Time 40+ Full-Time Professional Staff Professional Staff (13 Ph.D.s)(13 Ph.D.s)

Over 50 Graduate Over 50 Graduate AssistantsAssistants

Offices in Offices in Washington and Washington and AlmatyAlmaty

• ArabicArabic• ChineseChinese• CzechCzech• FarsiFarsi• FrenchFrench• GermanGerman• HebrewHebrew• HindiHindi• ItalianItalian• JapaneseJapanese

• KoreanKorean• PunjabiPunjabi• PortuguesePortuguese• RussianRussian• SpanishSpanish• SwedishSwedish• TurkishTurkish• UzbekUzbek

Fluent in Many LanguagesFluent in Many Languages

CNS: Diverse Backgrounds

Government: Government: • ACDA, DOE, OTA, Senate Staff, Canadian ACDA, DOE, OTA, Senate Staff, Canadian

Foreign Ministry Foreign Ministry Military: Military:

• Air Force, Navy, Army, Turkish NavyAir Force, Navy, Army, Turkish Navy Academia: Academia:

• Political Science, MicrobiologyPolitical Science, Microbiology

What Does CNS Do? Training, Databases, Research: A Training, Databases, Research: A

Virtuous CircleVirtuous Circle Training Training

• Student coursework is augmented by research work Student coursework is augmented by research work on the databaseson the databases

DatabasesDatabases• Enhanced by diverse student talents and language Enhanced by diverse student talents and language

abilitiesabilities ResearchResearch

• Based upon the rich data-collection system used for Based upon the rich data-collection system used for the databasesthe databases

Training the Next Generation of Nonproliferation Experts

Certificate in Nonproliferation StudiesCertificate in Nonproliferation Studies• Part of the International Policy Studies programPart of the International Policy Studies program

Building a network of nonproliferation Building a network of nonproliferation specialists in the NISspecialists in the NIS• Visiting Fellows Program/Core Group MeetingsVisiting Fellows Program/Core Group Meetings• MEPhI (MIFI) Training ProgramMEPhI (MIFI) Training Program• Assistance to NGOs in the NISAssistance to NGOs in the NIS

Building networks in East AsiaBuilding networks in East Asia• Visiting Fellows ProgramVisiting Fellows Program• Track 1.5 diplomacyTrack 1.5 diplomacy

CNS Research Programs

International Nuclear and Missile ProliferationInternational Nuclear and Missile Proliferation NIS Nonproliferation ProjectNIS Nonproliferation Project East Asia Nonproliferation ProjectEast Asia Nonproliferation Project Chemical and Biological Weapons Chemical and Biological Weapons

NonproliferationNonproliferation International Organizations and NonproliferationInternational Organizations and Nonproliferation Journal: Journal: The Nonproliferation ReviewThe Nonproliferation Review NO classified or secret researchNO classified or secret research

Recent Publications and Conferences

The Nonproliferation ReviewThe Nonproliferation Review• Published three times per yearPublished three times per year

Nuclear Successor States of the Former Nuclear Successor States of the Former Soviet Union (Annual)Soviet Union (Annual)

Washington Intensive Nonproliferation Washington Intensive Nonproliferation Seminars (WINS)Seminars (WINS)

Stanford/LLNL/MIIS Conference on Stanford/LLNL/MIIS Conference on Comparative MPCAComparative MPCA

Website publications and information: Website publications and information: http://http://cnscns..miismiis..eduedu

CNS and Policy IssuesAn independent voice on nonproliferation

issues

Not an advocacy organization: emphasis Not an advocacy organization: emphasis is on research and trainingis on research and training

Work with US Government and other Work with US Government and other governments on many issuesgovernments on many issues

US Government does not dictate CNS US Government does not dictate CNS views or actionsviews or actions

Why Databases?

First database created in 1986 to exploit First database created in 1986 to exploit low-cost information technology, untapped low-cost information technology, untapped open sources of informationopen sources of information

Both technology and sources have grown Both technology and sources have grown tremendously over last decadetremendously over last decade

Open sources provide some “early warning” Open sources provide some “early warning” indicatorsindicators

Inform CNS analyses and provide Inform CNS analyses and provide information to other researchers and information to other researchers and policymakerspolicymakers

CNS Database Resources Information Collections BranchInformation Collections Branch

• 2 staff members, 15 students2 staff members, 15 students

• Monitors global information sourcesMonitors global information sources

CRES LibraryCRES Library• 1 staff member, 12 students1 staff member, 12 students

• Monitors former Soviet Union mediaMonitors former Soviet Union media

Database StaffDatabase Staff• 12 full-time staff in projects12 full-time staff in projects

Information Technology StaffInformation Technology Staff• 4 full-time staff4 full-time staff

Open Source Data

CNS has a comprehensive open CNS has a comprehensive open source collection systemsource collection system• Global, multilingual coverageGlobal, multilingual coverage

• >300 Sources Systematically Searched >300 Sources Systematically Searched

• Trade and Popular MediaTrade and Popular Media

• Rich Gray Literature SourcesRich Gray Literature Sources

• Extensive coverage of NIS via CRES LibraryExtensive coverage of NIS via CRES Library

CNS uses only unclassified dataCNS uses only unclassified data• No limitations on distribution/use of databasesNo limitations on distribution/use of databases

Representative Sources AEROSPACE, ARMS AEROSPACE, ARMS

CONTROL, DEFENSE:CONTROL, DEFENSE:• Aerospace DailyAerospace Daily• Arms Sales MonitorArms Sales Monitor• Int’l Defense ReviewInt’l Defense Review• Pakistan AffairsPakistan Affairs• Cruise Missile DigestCruise Missile Digest

GOVT. & INTERNATIONAL GOVT. & INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONSORGANIZATIONS• IAEA Info. CircularIAEA Info. Circular• UNIDIR ReportsUNIDIR Reports• GAO ReportsGAO Reports• Congressional TestimonyCongressional Testimony

ON-LINE SERVICES:ON-LINE SERVICES:• FBISFBIS

• ReuterReuter

• UPIUPI

• Lexis-NexisLexis-Nexis

• Inquisit AgentInquisit Agent

• InterfaxInterfax

NUCLEAR, TRADE NUCLEAR, TRADE PUBLICATIONS:PUBLICATIONS:• Bulletin of Atomic ScientistsBulletin of Atomic Scientists

• Export Control NewsExport Control News

• Nuclear FuelNuclear Fuel

• PlutoniumPlutonium

CNS Information Life CycleCNS Information Life Cycle

Input

Output

NewspapersPeriodicals

Government DocumentsTechnical Journals

Database

Chronologies Decision MakingAnalysis

Abstracting

Checking

Correcting

Proofing

Culling / Sorting / Distributing

ICB

CNS Databases

Monitoring Proliferation Threats:Monitoring Proliferation Threats:• Nuclear Material & TechnologyNuclear Material & Technology

• Ballistic & Cruise MissilesBallistic & Cruise Missiles

NIS Nonproliferation DatabasesNIS Nonproliferation Databases• NIS Nuclear ProfilesNIS Nuclear Profiles• NIS Import/Export DatabaseNIS Import/Export Database• NIS Nuclear Trafficking DatabaseNIS Nuclear Trafficking Database

China Nonproliferation Profile DatabaseChina Nonproliferation Profile Database

Monitoring Proliferation

Threats

Broad Coverage/Transaction-

Oriented Nuclear AbstractsNuclear Abstracts Started 1986Started 1986 Nuclear Material & Nuclear Material &

TechnologyTechnology Technology TransferTechnology Transfer Indigenous Indigenous

DevelopmentsDevelopments

Missile AbstractsMissile Abstracts Started 1990Started 1990 International Missile International Missile

Trade and ProductionTrade and Production• WMD Delivery WMD Delivery

SystemsSystems

• Ballistic MissilesBallistic Missiles

• Cruise Missiles/RPVsCruise Missiles/RPVs

CNS Abstracting ProcessCNS Abstracting Process

Extract Information on NonproliferationExtract Information on Nonproliferation Concise Format, High Information DensityConcise Format, High Information Density Abstract DatabasesAbstract Databases

• Reports minimally filtered--allows the analyst to judge the Reports minimally filtered--allows the analyst to judge the report’s veracityreport’s veracity

25,000 Abstracts in the Nuclear and 25,000 Abstracts in the Nuclear and Missile DatabasesMissile Databases

Access Information by Searching Access Information by Searching Database by Word or Date (Boolean)Database by Word or Date (Boolean)

MPT Abstract Databases

Nuclear AbstractsNuclear Abstracts• Information on Information on who who is transferring is transferring whatwhat• Allows quick, comprehensive search of Allows quick, comprehensive search of

nuclear transaction informationnuclear transaction information Missile AbstractsMissile Abstracts

• Allows comparison of nuclear and missile Allows comparison of nuclear and missile transaction patternstransaction patterns

• Wide range of coverageWide range of coverage

Compound AbstractsBibliography: Executive News Service, 1/15/95Bibliography: Executive News Service, 1/15/95

Headline: France Wins $2.83 B ln Nuclear Contract With ChinaHeadline: France Wins $2.83 B ln Nuclear Contract With China

Orig. Source: Reuter, 1/15/95, by Mark O'NeillOrig. Source: Reuter, 1/15/95, by Mark O'Neill

NOTE: Reuter reports that the reactors will be 900 MW, but Nuclear NOTE: Reuter reports that the reactors will be 900 MW, but Nuclear News News describes the reactors as 1000 MWe, three-loop PWRs.describes the reactors as 1000 MWe, three-loop PWRs.

....Chinese firms will carry out the construction on the Lingao extension of the Daya Bay plant under ..Chinese firms will carry out the construction on the Lingao extension of the Daya Bay plant under the supervision of Framatome and GEC Alsthom the supervision of Framatome and GEC Alsthom [1][1]. EDF will train the. EDF will train the

Chinese plant operatorsChinese plant operators [2] [2]. Construction could begin prior to 1996, and the plants are. Construction could begin prior to 1996, and the plants are

expected to begin operating in 2002 and 2003 expected to begin operating in 2002 and 2003 [3].[3].......

Supporting Sources:Supporting Sources:

[1] Ann MacLachlan, Nucleonics Week, 1/19/95, pp. 1, 9-10, "China [1] Ann MacLachlan, Nucleonics Week, 1/19/95, pp. 1, 9-10, "China StrikesStrikes

Deal With French For Two New PWRs At Lingao Site."Deal With French For Two New PWRs At Lingao Site."

[2] David Buchan, Financial Times, 1/12/95, p. 3, "France To Seek [2] David Buchan, Financial Times, 1/12/95, p. 3, "France To Seek China China

N-Deal."N-Deal."

[3] Nuclear News, 2/95, p. 17, "France Has Won Contracts From [3] Nuclear News, 2/95, p. 17, "France Has Won Contracts From China."China."

NIS Nonproliferation Databases

NIS Nuclear ProfilesNIS Nuclear Profiles

NIS Nuclear TraffickingNIS Nuclear Trafficking NIS Import/Export DatabaseNIS Import/Export Database

NIS Nuclear Profiles

An Electronic Reference BookAn Electronic Reference Book Comprehensive overview of the NIS nuclear Comprehensive overview of the NIS nuclear

infrastructure and policiesinfrastructure and policies Facilities emphasis, strong MPC&A orientationFacilities emphasis, strong MPC&A orientation Full-text sections featuring original Full-text sections featuring original

documentsdocuments Analyses and overviews by CNS staffAnalyses and overviews by CNS staff In HTML for easy navigation and searchingIn HTML for easy navigation and searching Extensive full-text section with original Extensive full-text section with original

documentsdocuments Over 1,600 HTML pages, more than 40 MBOver 1,600 HTML pages, more than 40 MB Updated monthlyUpdated monthly

NIS Databases

Nuclear Trafficking DatabaseNuclear Trafficking Database• Abstracts of reports of illicit trafficking in Abstracts of reports of illicit trafficking in

radioactive materials in/from the NISradioactive materials in/from the NIS• Soon to be in HTML with additional Soon to be in HTML with additional

summary tables and analysissummary tables and analysis NIS Import/Export DatabaseNIS Import/Export Database

• Abstracts of NIS Nuclear Imports/ExportsAbstracts of NIS Nuclear Imports/Exports• Subset of the Nuclear Exports DatabaseSubset of the Nuclear Exports Database

China Nonproliferation Database

Comprehensive Coverage of China’s Comprehensive Coverage of China’s Nonproliferation PolicyNonproliferation Policy

• Nuclear, Missile, Chemical, Conventional Nuclear, Missile, Chemical, Conventional Arms, and Export ControlsArms, and Export Controls

• Overviews, Analyses, Quick-Reference TablesOverviews, Analyses, Quick-Reference Tables

• Full-text Source Material from China and Full-text Source Material from China and Other StatesOther States

• HTML Database--Flexible and SearchableHTML Database--Flexible and Searchable

• Incorporates Chinese textIncorporates Chinese text

Database Uses Export ControlExport Control

• Patterns in reported exportsPatterns in reported exports• Allegations of illegal exports/importsAllegations of illegal exports/imports

Proliferation IndicatorsProliferation Indicators• Imports/Exports/StatementsImports/Exports/Statements• Development of delivery vehiclesDevelopment of delivery vehicles

Quick Reference (Profiles)Quick Reference (Profiles)• What does a facility do?What does a facility do?• Is a country party to a treaty?Is a country party to a treaty?• Where is fissile material located?Where is fissile material located?

Database Details

Webserver or CD-ROM VersionsWebserver or CD-ROM Versions• Can also load files on intranetCan also load files on intranet

Subscription Rates Depend On:Subscription Rates Depend On:• number of databasesnumber of databases• update frequency (CD-ROM) update frequency (CD-ROM) • number of usersnumber of users

Wide Compatibility (Search 97)Wide Compatibility (Search 97)

Database Enhancements for 1999

Verity Search EngineVerity Search Engine NIS Databases in HTML and Cross-NIS Databases in HTML and Cross-

LinkedLinked New NIS Profiles Export SectionNew NIS Profiles Export Section

• Analyses of export transactions with Analyses of export transactions with countries of concerncountries of concern

New NIS Missile Facilities SectionsNew NIS Missile Facilities Sections

Summary

Wide range of databases in nuclear and Wide range of databases in nuclear and missile proliferationmissile proliferation

Both unfiltered abstract databases and Both unfiltered abstract databases and filtered, structured country profilesfiltered, structured country profiles

Technology upgrade program Technology upgrade program underwayunderway

Experience in developing new Experience in developing new databasesdatabases