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CellulosicCellulosic Ethanol:An Assessment of the PotentiaPotential Market
in Belize
Mark Lambrides and
Kevin de CubaKevin de Cuba
Energy and Climate Change Division Energy and Climate Change Division Organization of American States (OAS)Organization of American States (OAS)
With Financial Support Provided by: the Government of Canada - DFAIT
What are our objectives for today’s workshop?
• Present the findings of our initial assessment on the potential for Belize to develop and consume cellulosic ethanol– Discuss issues surrounding the opportunity– Review possible next steps if pursuing cellulosic
approach• Discuss other possible avenues for ethanol production
(i.e. 1st generation cane to ethanol)• Discuss broad renewable energy needs/plans for Belize• Consider future interventions/support from OAS and/or
other institutions
How did we get here today?
• Project designed and funded (OAS and Canada/DFAIT)
• Initial desk study and telephone interviews (July 2008)
• 1st Stakeholder Consultation (August 2008) in Belize City
1st Stakeholder Consultation - Participants
Last name First name Institution Title
Avery John Public Utilities Commission Chairman
Canto Gabino Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries CEO
Monsanto Maxime Dep. of the Environment Technician
Montero Viannie BMDC Accountant
Neal Dwight Friends of Nature Consultant
Sabido Wilber Forest Department CFO
Thompson Ricardo Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries HOE
Vanzie Marvin Belize Natural Energy Chemical Eng.
Field Visits / Stakeholder Interviews
• In August 2008, team of specialists from OAS met with key stakeholders before and after the consultation to obtain in depth briefing and collect key data
Ministry of Economic Development, Commerce and Industry, and Consumer Protection
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries
Citrus Products of Belize Ltd.
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)
Belize cane Farmers Association
Ministry of Public Utilities, National Emergency, Transport and Communication
Belize cane Farmers Association
Banana Growers Association
Forest Department
Public Utilities Commission
How did we get here today? (2)
• Incorporation of input from consultations into technical report
• Elaboration of analysis
• Input from technical consulting firm – Hart Energy
• Production of draft assessment (White Paper)
CELLULOSIC ETHANOL
General Transportation Sector Conditions
•A vehicle fleet of approximately 54,225 (2007)
•Gasoline consumption of 12.6 Million gallons (2007) -> Projection of 13.9 Million gallons (by 2012)
•Gasoline prices dependant on international petroleum prices
•Very volatile petroleum prices US$ 30-148 per barrel during last 5 years
•Leading to volatile gasoline prices -> US$ 0.78 (Dec 24, 2008) – 3.41 (June 12, 2008) per gallon!! (SPOT prices, NY Harbour)
•Retail prices in Belize -> Import price (whole sale) + Taxes/Duties/Levies -> US$ 2.28 – 5.00 per gallon (Retail Prices)
• 1st generation, conventional ethanol is derived from the accessible sugars from starches
• 2nd generation, cellulosic ethanol is derived from a wide variety of sources of cellulosic plant fiber (cellulose/hemicelluloses)
• Feedstocks may come from a wide range of stalks and grain straws and several kinds of agricultural and forestry residues
• Also, the organic fraction of municipal waste (paper, yard waste, food waste, sludge…) may also be used as a feedstock
What is Cellulosic Ethanol?
What are the potential advantages of cellulosic ethanol over 1st generation ethanol?
• Eliminate the Food vs Fuels challenge• Cellulosic biomass residues are abundant and
conversion into ethanol can represent an alternative to waste handling/treatment
• It is friendlier to the environment: less GHG emissions during the production phase
• It does not constitute a threat to biodiversity: there is no need for single-crop farming practice
• Support the agriculture sector: can be an aggregated value to farming
What is the Status of Cellulosic Ethanol Technology Today?
Laboratory scale research and process development
Pilot scale process development and demonstration
Demonstration scale plant
(2008)
Commercial launch
Increasing technology development and reducing costs
2000 2004 2006-2008 2012+
Hydrolysis on pretreated lignocelluloses materials, using enzymes to break complex cell walls, thereby providing access to the sugars followed by fermentation and distillation
Cellulosic Ethanol – The Biochemical Process
• Also involves breaking down biomass into its elemental components by using heat and chemical synthesis
• The carbon in the raw material is converted into synthesis gas (Syngas) through a heat process
• The syngas is converted either through a catalytic reaction or by bacteria into various products such as ethanol
Cellulosic Ethanol – The Thermo-chemical Process
CELLULOSIC ETHANOL IN BELIZE
POSSIBLE FEEDSTOCKS POTENTIAL YIELDESTIMATED COSTS
Possible feedstocks in Belize (2008 conditions per sector; MT)
Agriculture Forestry MSW
1,121,353 101,846 160,000
Conversion Technology
Total Potential Amount of
Sustainable- harvestable Biomass
from Agriculture, Forestry and MSW
(MT)
Biochemical Conversion
557,469
Thermo-chemical
Conversion717,469
Other input factors
•The average cost of collection and transport of the feedstock is estimated to be in the range of US$ 22.0 – 56.7 US$ per ton
• These values are calculated for transport distances ranging up to 52 miles radius (85km) from collection point to processing plant, where 90% of all available cellulosic biomass feedstock in Belize is available for collection or harvesting
Critical feedstock density and transport distances to a centralized CE processing plant in Belize
Potential sustainable cellulosic ethanol yields
Conversion Technology
Total Potential Amount of
Sustainable- harvestable
Biomass from Agriculture,
Forestry and MSW (MT)
2008 Technology
Ethanol Yield (gal/y)
2012 Theoretical Conservative Scenario,
Total Ethanol
Yield (gal/y)
2012 Theoretical
Optimal Scenario, Total Ethanol Yield
(gal/y)
Biochemical
Conversion557,469
39,022,848
50,172,234
58,701,513
Thermo-chemical
Conversion717,469
46,347,502
52,530,195
68,897,408
Cost comparison of Sustainable CE production cost in Belize by Technologies
Technology2008 CE prod. cost
(US$/gallon)
2008 CE prod. cost
in gas equiv. (US$/gallon)
2012 CE est. prod. Costs (US$/gallon)
Biochemical 2.04 – 2.73 2.65 – 3.55 0.873 – 1.40
Thermo-chemical
1.64 – 2.17 2.13 – 2.82 1.029 – 1.493
Enzymes, $0.40
Other costs, $0.80
Capital costs, $0.55
Collecting Cost, $0.13
Transportation, $0.44
Feedstock, $0.57
By-product (-$0.10)
Figure 2. Cost breakdown for the average production costs through a biochemical conversion (2008)
Figure 3. Cost breakdown of the production costs of CE through a thermo-chemical process (2008)
Cost comparison of Sustainable Cellulosic Ethanol production
Figure 1. Cost breakdown comparison between Belize (error bars for uncertainty in feedstock costs) and literature reported CE production costs vs. Gasoline NYC international spot prices (average value from 2004-2009; uncertainty range represents the lowest and highest values in the market in the last 5 years; Today’s market price is also represented)
-$0.50
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Biochemical Literature 2008
Biochemical Belize 2008
Biochemical Belize 2012
Thermochemical Literature 2008
Thermochemical Belize 2008
Thermochemical Belize 2012
Gasoline
US$
/US g
allo
n
Assessments
International Market Price (NYC)
Feedstock
Conversion Costs
Capital costs
Other costs
Enzymes
By-product
Price Feb 23, 2009
Cost comparison of Sustainable Cellulosic Ethanol production
Belize CEBiochemical (2008)
Belize CEBiochemical (2008)
Belize CE Thermo-chemical (2008)
Feedstock
US$ 0.31–0.81 US$ 0.31-0.81 US$ 0.34-0.87
@ US$ 22.0-56.7/mt @ US$ 22.0-56.7/mt -
@ 85km @ 85km -
By-product - US$ 0.10 - -
Enzymes US$ 0.40 US$ 0.74 -
Other costs** US$ 0.80 - -
Capital costs US$ 0.55 - -
Conversion costs - US$ 1.34 US$ 1.30
TotalUS$
1.96 – 2.46US$
2.39 – 2.89US$
1.64 – 2.17
Global ResultsUS$ 2.65(USDA)
US$ 2.40(NREL)
US$ 1.85(NREL)
The Way Forward…
The Future Role of Ethanol in Belize
• By 2012+ cellulosic ethanol may offer the potential to produce up to about 60 million gallons/yr of ethanol at <$1.50/gallon….– Offers potential to satisfy 10% of the gasoline market as an
E10 blend and…
– Still offer over 46 million gallons of ethanol for export
– Creates added value for agriculture and forestry sectors
– Address critical challenges for municipal waste
– Creates new jobs and economic development potential
– Great local and global environmental opportunity
What are the key challenges to this future?• Market uncertaintyUncertain markets for ethanol; oil prices; other alternative fuels/vehicles; carbon markets; global economic crisis…
• Technology uncertaintyCellulosic technology commercialization and deployment; Feedstock supply; early access to technology…
• Current domestic energy policy environmentLack of overall energy policy/plan; lack of targeted incentives for ethanol/renewables; no mandate for ethanol blending in gasoline…
• Lack of experience/precedent in this arenaNo history with ethanol production; minimal experience with climate change mechanisms…
Key tools to overcome challenges…Ethanol Market
• Consider near term development of 1st generation cane – ethanol development-Mitigates uncertainty with respect to 2nd/3rd generation ethanol-Helps to establish physical market conditions for ethanol production-Gain experience in production, use, blending, and export of ethanol (for example: CARICOM-Canada; CAFTA; CBI; EU…)-Offers potential for future upgrade of production facility
• Establish policy/regulatory conditions for ethanol market-Consider comprehensive biofuels policy that addresses production and consumption
-Incentives for production-Market tools/infrastructure-Regulations: Production licenses; forestry management;
feedstock handling -Fuel standards-Mandate for E10, other blending requirements?
Ethanol in the wider sustainable energy context
• Is Belize interested/committed to a transition toward sustainable energy?– If the answer is yes…then may wish to
consider:• National Sustainable Energy Policy/Plan• Build on past efforts (i.e. UNDP)• Assess renewable energy resource potential• Alternatives for sustainable energy finance (i.e.
MDBs, Carbon Finance, Private Sector, etc.)• Multi-stakeholder collaboration to establish targets,
plans, the way forward…
Best practices framework for promoting sustainable energy
Principal Ministry in charge
National Energy Policy
National Sustainable
Energy Plan
Renewable Energy Specific
Legislation
National Energy Committee
Regulatory Body PPAs Regulations IPPs
DSD Energy TeamThank You!
Mark LambridesChief Energy and Climate Change Division
T: +1-202-458-6261E: [email protected]
Kevin de CubaEnergy and Environmental Specialist
T: +1-202-458-6467E: [email protected]
Mark [email protected]
Kevin de [email protected]
Francisco [email protected]
Carolina [email protected]
Juan Cruz [email protected]
Charlene [email protected]
Ruben [email protected]
Mauricio [email protected] URL: www.oas.org/dsd
