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The Jobs Crisis and American Democracy No, really, it’s the economy stupid. Celinda Lake Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Celinda LakeWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066
The Jobs Crisis and American DemocracyNo, really, it’s the economy stupid
2
Overview
• It is still all about the economy and jobs. Concerns about spending and deficits have risen, but the top concern remains the economy and creation of good jobs. Moreover, concerns about the deficit often rest on spending that hasn’t created jobs.
• A significant portion of voters have felt this recession personally, either through a lost job or struggles to pay housing and bills. Additionally, a majority of voters are also worried they will personally struggle with these same issues and that the next generation will be worse off.
• The wind is at progressives’ backs on two fronts:
– 1) This economic focus extends to favoring programs like job training, education, Social Security, and Medicare over reducing the deficit—so appeals for “across the board” cuts need a response showing the threat they present to these programs. Voters want to set priorities.
– 2) There is also strong momentum in favor of tax policies favored by progressives. While jobs outweigh deficits 2-1, voters do worry about spending in these tough times. Progressives should respond to this with a “fiscally responsible” frame against massive tax cuts for the wealthy and special interests.
3
Most Important Issue (Top 2 Choices)
56
40
28
20
20
13
12
5
Job creation and economic growth
The deficit and government spending
Health care
National security and terrorism
Energy and the cost of gas
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
Immigration
Egypt, Libya, and the political unrest in Arabcountries
Job creation and economic growth still top the concerns about deficits and government spending.
Let me list some issues that have been proposed for the federal government to address. Please tell me which ONE OR TWO of these items you think should be the top priority for the federal government.
NBC News/WSJ, February 2011
4
At the state level, Americans are more willing to see an increase in taxes instead of a reduction in benefits for public employees and other funding cuts as a way to address budget deficits.
Areas to Fix State Budget Deficit40
22 20
314
Increase taxes Decreasebenefits
Decreasefunding for
roads
Decreaseeducation
funding
Don't know
#1 for Democrats (56%) and Independents (34%):
If you HAD to chose ONE, which of the following would you be willing to do in order to reduce your STATE’S budget deficit: 1. increase taxes, 2. decrease benefits of public employees like teachers or police officers, 3. decrease funding for roads and public transportation, or 4. decrease funding for education?
CBS News/NYT, February 2011
5
Role of Government
47 4745
53
32
4643 47
51
46
474848
46454243
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12/95 1/02 7/08 10/08 4/09 10/09 1/10 8/10 2/11
Should do more
Doing too many things
While views on the role of government have been mixed, there has been a sharp improvement since early 2010 and anti-government feelings are not near the levels seen during the mid 90’s.
Now, thinking about something else, I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to know which closer to your point of view. Statement A: Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people, OR Statement B: Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals?
NBC News/WSJ, February 2011
6
A significant portion of the population, from 25% to 41% has been personally impacted by this recession through their jobs, ability to afford housing, and other common economic issues.
Had problems (% yes self/family)
31 31
41
25 25 23 23
32
Paying for healthcare
Paying for gas Getting a raise orgood-paying job
Payingrent/mortgage
Credit card orpersonal debt
Paying for food Lost a job Had hours/pay cut
Kaiser Family Foundation, December 2010
As a result of the economic downturn, have you or your family had problems [INSERT AND RANDOMIZE], or not?
7
A majority of voters value economic security over opportunity. This is especially true among women, 64% of whom choose security.
Security vs. Opportunity
57
38
5
Security Opportunity Don't know
Still thinking about the economy, which is more important to you personally – economic opportunity or economic security?
LRP Survey, March 2011
8
How worried are you personally about the following...
78
60
49
42
51
35
22
17
That you will have troublepaying for your children’s
college education
That you won’t be able toafford to retire
That you won’t be able topay your mortgage, credit
card bills or other debt
That you might lose yourjob in the next year or so Total Worried
Very Worried
Most Americans are worried about areas like saving for college and not being able to retired—with almost half worried about being unable to pay bills and two out of five concerned about losing their job.
Public Agenda, November 2010
9
A majority believe the next generation will be worse off economically.
Economic Position of Next Generation
22
51
23
4
Better Worse Same Don't know
Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today?
CBS News/NYT, October 2010
10
Ways to Help People in Current Economy
86
87
89
80
73
73
74
57
63
58
54
48
40
32
29
22
Making higher education more affordable
Preserving Social Security and Medicare
Expanding job-training programs
Cutting taxes for the middle class
Reducing the federal deficit
Requiring more employers to offer flexible scheduling,paid leave and sick time
Subsidizing affordable housing
Providing financial help to people who owe more ontheir mortgage than their house is worth
Total effective
Very effective
Education, Social Security, Medicare, job training, and tax cuts for the middle class all top reducing the deficit as ways to help people struggling in this economy.
How effective do you think the following proposals are when it comes to helping people who are struggling in the current economy?
Public Agenda, November 2010
11
It’s not just “keep your hands off my Medicare” but also education funding, Social Security, and heating assistance that are crucial.
Areas for Cuts
77
77
76
67
65
59
56
22
22
23
32
34
39
41
K thru 12 education
Social Security
Medicare, the federalgovernment health care
program for seniors
Medicaid, the federalgovernment health care
program for the poor
Heating assistance to low-income families
College student loans
The Head Start pre-kindergartenprogram
Unacceptable
Acceptable
Let me you read you a number of programs that could be cut significantly as a way to reduce the current federal budget deficit. For each one, please tell me if you think significantly cutting the funding for this program is totally acceptable, mostly acceptable, mostly unacceptable, or totally unacceptable as a way to help reduce the federal deficit.
NBC News/WSJ, February 2011
12
More find cuts to unemployment insurance unacceptable than cuts to national defense.
Areas for Cuts
55
52
51
46
46
45
40
43
46
48
51
51
52
57
Unemployment insurance
National defense
Scientific and medical research
The EPA, that is theEnvironmental Protection
Agency
Transportation andinfrastructure projects
Federal assistance to stategovernments
Subsidies to build new nuclearpower plants
Unacceptable
Acceptable
Let me you read you a number of programs that could be cut significantly as a way to reduce the current federal budget deficit. For each one, please tell me if you think significantly cutting the funding for this program is totally acceptable, mostly acceptable, mostly unacceptable, or totally unacceptable as a way to help reduce the federal deficit.
NBC News/WSJ, February 2011
13
On the other side, Americans find a progressive tax policy very acceptable.
Areas for Cuts
17
17
22
22
29
26
81
78
76
74
68
67
Placing a surtax on federal incometaxes for people earning over one
million dollars a year.
Eliminating spending on so-calledearmarks for special projects and
specific areas of the country.
Eliminating funding for weaponssystems the Defense Department says
are not necessary.
Eliminating tax credits for the oil andgas industries.
Phasing out the Bush tax cuts forfamilies earning two hundred and fifty
thousand dollars or more per year.
Freezing annual domestic spending atits current level for the next five years.
Unacceptable
Acceptable
For each one, please tell me if you think significantly cutting the funding for this program is totally acceptable, mostly acceptable, mostly unacceptable, or totally unacceptable as a way to help reduce the federal deficit.
NBC News/WSJ, February 2011
14
A message focused on using job creation and specific investments as the way to get the deficit under control beats the Republican-focused deficit message.
Messaging on Jobs vs. Deficit
58
35
42
21
Invest Deficit
[Invest for jobs and deficit reduction]While reducing the deficit is important, creating jobs and growing the economy should be our first priority. The best way to get our deficits under control is to put our economy back on track. That requires investment in areas vital to our economy like education, modern infrastructure, research and technology, and a clear plan to make things in America once more. Critical investments in our future cannot be sacrificed to austerity and budget cuts.
[Deficit reduction overriding priority] We need to take serious steps now to cut spending and reduce the nation's crushing debt, or our country will not be able to compete and we will be unable to grow our economy and create jobs. The Deficit Commission's proposal takes reasonable steps to cut red tape, eliminate excess spending, and simplify our tax system. The commission would focus benefits on those who need them and ensure that the benefits will be available in the future.
Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.
Campaign for America’s Future/Dcorps, January 2011
Celinda [email protected]/celindalakewww.facebook.com/celindalake
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066