Upload
brita
View
23
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering predictions from models global energy 22 February 2011. team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to [email protected] and [email protected] exam on first half of class: 2.24.2011 Thurs - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
CE 401
Climate Change Science and Engineering
predictions from modelsglobal energy
22 February 2011
team selection and project topic proposal (paragraph): due today, electronically, to [email protected] and [email protected]
exam on first half of class: 2.24.2011 Thurs
review session for exam, today at 5:00PM, Sloan 150
pre-warned questions for the exam on the 24th:
• what is the average global percent increase in [CO2]/yr since 1959?
• what is the solar energy input [w/m2] at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere?
• what is the average albedo of the Earth [%]?
• what is the solar cycle variability in solar output measured at top of Earth’s atmosphere? [%]
• how many degrees is the Earth warmer with greenhouse gases than without? [°C]
• what ~ percent of global carbon emissions stays in the Earth’s atmosphere?
• what is the pre-industrial (1750) level of [CO2] [ppm]?
• what is the current level of [CO2] [ppm]?
possible topics for your project – you must have a strong engineering component/analysis:• carbon sequestration• energy efficiency• clean technologies• the technological solution• nuclear fusion• high performance buildings and green technologies• unconventional oil• fission nuclear• geothermal energy• solar photovoltaic• solar thermal• biomass• hydrogen economy• mitigation strategies in transportation, residential and commercial buildings, electric powersector, industry, agriculture• ag sector – afforestation, forest management, soil carbon sequestration, biofuel offsets,livestock management, nitrous oxide related soil management
• title - the topic must address the engineering of climate change• what subject to you intend to address• why is the subject important to the engineering of climate change• do you have a hypothesis to propose concerning your subject
exam next Thursday, 2.24.2011
There are the pre-warned questions, just memorize the answers and write down on the exam – I will make it worth your while to learn these important facts.
There will be numerical questions on the exam – all equations will be given to you with constants.Review the homework and that should get you up on this curve. Solutions are on the website.
There will be short answer type questions – explain something
There will be several longer questions to see if you can synthesize the numerous charts andgraphs that were presented in class.
a quick look at global energy sources and projected demand
The amount of carbon by weight emitted per unit of energy consumed.
1970 2004
global energy production by type
global GHG emissions (anthropogenic)
to 2004
China/India
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010
1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930
400
800
1200
1600
2000Ca
rbon
Em
issio
ns p
er y
ear
(C to
ns x
1,0
00,0
00)
China
USA
Japan
Russian Fed.India
07
2009
Time (y)
1971 - 2003 by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
CHINAUSA
INDIA
RUSSIAJA
PAN
GERMANYIRAN
SOUTH KOREA
CANADA
UNITED KINGDOM
MEXICO
SAUDI ARABIA
SOUTH AFRICA
INDONESIAITALY
BRAZIL
AUSTRALIA
FRANCE (inl. M
onac
o)
POLAND
SPAIN0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Tota
l Car
bon
Emiss
ions
(to
ns x
1,0
00,0
00)
Per Capita Emissions
(tons C person y-1)
Total global energy demand
70%increase
(International Energy Outlook 2006)
Energy use by type
(International Energy Outlook 2006)
Who has the oil?USA
China
India
(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)
Hubbert’s curve
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010
Foss
il Fue
l Em
issio
n (Pg
Cy-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections
A1B Models AverageA1FI Models AverageA1T Models AverageA2 Models Average
B1 Models AverageB2 Models Average
ObservedProjected
Time (y)
discussion of climate change:
• where are you on the warming question• where are you on the attribution of cause question
• natural cause• human cause• obviously the attribution is a mixture, the question is how much of either
• is climate change a manufactured question “existing only in the feverish imaginations ofenvironmental zealots”?• why is climate change so polarizing – it always seems to bring out the worst• how important do you think it is to act now with what you might consider insufficient evidence• the technological solution?• how would you advise a person in the Congress to vote on climate legislation• how important do you think it is to participate in “global solutions”• will the US be at a competitive disadvantage by adopting energy policies to limit GHG emissions• how should GHG emissions be limited• how do you feel about responsibility for the rising GHG concentration problem – developedworld and the developing world – ethics of climate change•