CE 401

Climate Change Science and Engineering

poster presentations

28 February 2012

exam on first half of class: 3.1.2012

review sessions: today 6pm Sloan 167

CE401 Survey Results

With reference material

What molecules are you unfamiliar with?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

amm

onia

(NH

3)

carb

on m

onox

ide

(CO

)

carb

on d

ioxi

de(C

O2)

chlo

roflu

oroc

arbo

ns(C

FCs)

form

alde

hyde

(HC

HO

)

met

hane

(CH

4)

nitro

gen

diox

ide

(NO

2)

nitri

c ox

ide

(NO

)

nitro

us o

xide

(N2O

)

sulfu

r dio

xide

(SO

2)

tropo

sphe

ric o

zone

(O3

near

gro

und)

vola

tile

orga

nic

com

poun

ds(V

OC

s)

wat

er (H

2O)

1st Time

2nd Time

What traits make certain molecules better GHGs than others?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16sh

ort

life

time

larg

e c

ross

sect

ion

larg

ea

bu

nd

an

ce

hig

h a

cid

ity

con

tain

sca

rbo

n

rea

cts

qu

ickl

y

sma

ll cr

oss

sect

ion

con

tain

sn

itro

ge

n

lon

glif

etim

e

mo

lecu

lar

we

igh

t

rea

cts

slo

wly

sma

lla

bu

nd

an

ce

con

tain

sh

ydro

ge

n

con

tain

so

xyg

en

low

aci

dity

1st Time

2nd Time

What countries (list 3) are currently producing the most GHG per capita?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

USA China India Russia Japan Canada Germany SaudiArabia

Kuwait France UK Australia Namibia Singapore

1st Time

2nd Time

What countries (list 3) are currently producing the most GHG?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

USA China India Russia Japan Canada Germany SaudiArabia

Kuwait France UK Australia Namibia Singapore

1st Time

2nd Time

2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Oil ConsumptionOil Consumption

Millions of Tons

2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy

Coal ConsumptionCoal Consumption

Millions of Tons (oil equivalent)

CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion PER CAPITACO2 Emissions from fuel combustion PER CAPITA

Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

CHINAUSA

INDIA

RUSSIAJA

PAN

GERMANYIRAN

SOUTH KOREA

CANADA

UNITED KINGDOM

MEXICO

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH AFRICA

INDONESIAITALY

BRAZIL

AUSTRALIA

FRANCE (inl. M

onac

o)

POLAND

SPAIN0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Tota

l Car

bon

Emiss

ions

(to

ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

Per Capita Emissions

(tons C person y-1)

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010

1990 95 2001 05 200997 99 03930

400

800

1200

1600

2000Ca

rbon

Em

issio

ns p

er y

ear

(C to

ns x

1,0

00,0

00)

China

USA

Japan

Russian Fed.India

07

2009

Time (y)

Assuming that the world continues “business as usual” economically and socially (i.e. continues on the same economic paths w/o GHG regulation), how many degrees

warmer/cooler/same do you think the world will be (on average) by the year 2100?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Cooler 1 to 3 4 to 5 6 to 10 greater than 10 Not Sure

1st Time

2nd Time

some comments on ethics of climate change

rectangle width = population, height = average per capita emissions from that region

rectangle width = population, height = average per capita emissions from that region

cumulative emissions 1880 – 2004 – who did it

ethical considerations:• 20 yrs of awareness and emissions are increasing everywhere• global problem global solution?• future generations – pay now for potential benefits later, or pay later (larger amount?, cannot control later?, hope for the technological solution?, stop gap measures?)• CC policy should not aggravate existing disparities between regions• who should pay - ability to pay, polluter pays, contribution to the problem• should we limit GHG production via international agreements?• food production - CC will adversely affect mainly poor countries• ethics of special interests - e.g. oil producing countries• is global warming a global blessing?• ecological protection - e.g., what is a forest, reforestation vs ecosystems

• e.g. Kyoto defines deforestation as a loss of 80-90% of an areas tree cover --> can log out 3/4 of a forest without penalty• clear cutting and tree replacement does not count as deforestation

• technology transfer• human health - vector born diseases and public health• be wary of proposals for action that do not respond to the problem• if climate change is not caused by humans, what are the ethical issues?

toe per capita

Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010

92% of growth

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

China USIndia World

CO2 e

miss

ions

(Tg

C y-1

)

350

Total global energy demand

70%increase

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

ppp=purchasing power parity

1971 - 2003 by region; mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent

Global Energy Useage

• industrialized nations• < 20% of population• 75% of carbon emitted since 1950• < 50% of today’s carbon emissions

• developing nations• > 80% of population• 25% of carbon emissions since 1950• > 50% of today’s emissions• economic & population growth --> huge emissions increases in the future