Ccs.tsinghua.edu.cn | [email protected] Evolution of Regional Pattern and Disparities of Chinas Human Development (1982-2003) Hu Angang Center for

ccs.tsinghua.edu.cn | [email protected]

Evolution of Regional Pattern and Disparities of China’s Human

Development (1982-2003)

Hu AngangCenter for China Studies

Tsinghua UniversityAug.26-27th, 2006

IDEAS Shanghai Conference


Main Problems

• How about China’s regional human development when studied by international comparison?

• What progress have various regions in China made over the past two decades?

• How has the regional pattern of China’s human development evolved?

• How have the regional disparities changed in terms of item-by-item factors and in HDI?

• Do they have similar significant disparities just like the economic development (income) among the eastern, middle and western parts of the country?


Agenda

• Historical trend of China’s human development

• Standards for classifying regional pattern of human

development

• Evolution of the regional pattern of China’s human

development

• Regional disparities evolution of China’s human

development factors and HDI (health, education &

income disparities)

• Conclusions and Discussion


Historical trend of China’s Human Development

• China is the most populous country in the world and also one of the poorest. Yet, it has, over the past century, especially over the past more than 20 years since reform and opening up, not only created economic miracles but also made big progress in human development.

Table 1 China’s HDI and Its World Ranking (1950-2003)

1950 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003

China 0.225 0.525 0.558 0.594 0.627 0.683 0.726 0.755

Ranking - 62 74 79 88 85 96 85

Total number of countries

- 102 113 121 136 145 173 177

Source：Value for 1950 is estimated by Crafts(2002)，Other values come from UNDP, Human Development Report

1990-2005.


Historical trend of China’s Human Development

• Not only has China’s tremendous achievements in

human development been attractive to the world but also

its regional disparities in human development.

• In general, China has achieved astonishing

achievements in human development since reform and

opening up, but there are still significant regional

disparities.


UNDP’ s Classification

• High level (HDI≥0.80),

• Medium level (0.80>HDI≥0.50)

• Low level (HDI<0.50)


“Four Worlds” Classification

Table 2 “Four Worlds” of Human Development

Classification Implication Standards

1st world High Human Development HDI≥0.80

2nd world Upper Medium Human Development 0.80>HDI≥0.65

3rd world Lower Medium Human Development 0.65>HDI≥0.50

4th world Low Human Development 0.50>HDI

Note: The dividing value between 2nd and 3rd worlds is 0.65 determined by the authors. Other dividing value are

determined by UNDP.

Source：UNDP(2004).


Evolution of the Regional Pattern

Table 3 Historical Evolution of the “One China, Four Worlds” Pattern in China’s Human

Development（1982－2003）

1982 1990 1999 2003

1st

world

Shanghai, Beijing,

Tianjin

Shanghai, Beijing,

Tianjin, Zhejiang,

Liaoning, Guangdong

and Jiangsu

2nd

world

Shanghai

Beijing

Shanghai, Beijing,

Tianjin, Liaoning,

Guangdong, Zhejiang

Jiangsu, Heilongjiang,

Jilin, Shanxi, Hainan

and Shandong

Guangdong, Liaoning,

Zhejiang, Jiangsu,

Fujian, Heilongjiang,

Shandong, Hebei,

Jilin, Hainan, Shanxi,

Xinjiang, Hubei,

Henan, Chongqing,

Hunan, Shaanxi,

Guangxi, Inner

Mongolia, Anhui,

Jiangxi, Sichuan,

Ningxia

Heilongjiang, Fujian,

Jilin, Shandong, Hebei,

Hainan, Xinjiang,

Hubei, Shanxi, Hunan,

Chongqing, Henan,

Inner Mongolia,

Jiangxi, Guangxi,

Shaanxi, Sichuan,

Anhui, Ningxia,

Qinghai, Gansu and

Yunnan



3rd

world

Tianjin, Liaoning,

Heilongjiang,

Guangdong, Jilin,

Shanxi, Hebei, Jiangsu,

Zhejiang, Guangxi,

Shandong, Hunan,

Hubei and Inner

Mongolia

Hebei, Fujian,

Xinjiang, Guangxi,,

Hubei, Inner

Mongolia, Hunan,

Henan, Shaanxi,

Sichuan, Ningxia,

Jiangxi, Anhui, Gansu,

Yunnan, Qinghai, and

Guizhou

Yunnan, Gansu,

Qinghai, Guizhou,

Tibet

Guizhou, Tibet

4th

world

Henan, Jiangxi, Fujian,

Shaanxi, Xinjiang,

Ningxia, Sichuan,

Anhui, Gansu,

Qinghai, Yunnan,

Guizhou and Tibet

Tibet

Note： The regional pattern of human development is classified according to the HDI value in 1982, 1990, 1999

and 2003. The classification standards are given in Table 2.



1982 2003



Table 4 Historical Evolution of the Proportion of Population of Different HDI Groups in the

National Total（1982－2003）

Unit：%

HDI group 1982 1990 1999 2003 1982-2003 variables

1st World 0.00 0.00 3.21 22.15 22.15

2nd World 2.10 37.45 87.95 74.63 72.53

3rd World 56.54 62.36 8.84 3.22 -53.32

4th World 41.36 0.19 0.00 0.00 -41.36

National

total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 -

Note：HDI is short for Human Development Index. Population ratio refers to the combined population of the same

HDI grouping the national total.


Regional Disparities in Human Development

Table 5 Number of Provinces in Different HDI Groups by Region（1982－2003）

World 1982 1990 1999 2003

E M W E M W E M W E M W

1st 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 7 0 0

2nd 2 0 0 9 3 0 8 9 6 4 9 9

3rd 7 6 1 2 6 9 0 0 5 0 0 2

4th 1 3 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 10 9 10 11 9 10 11 9 11 11 9 11

Note：Tabulated according to Table 3. In 1982，Chongqing and Sichuan were in the same province and Hainan and

Guangdong were of the same province.


Source of regional disparities

• Health: life expectancy at birth

• Education: adult literacy ratio and gross enrollment

• Income: per capita GDP


Health: life expectancy at birth

Table 6 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Life Expectancy at Birth 1982 2003

Trichotomy Tetrachotomy

General East Middle West B-R East Middle West Municipal

ity B-R

1982 0.0011 3.02 10.98 24.87 61.14 1.96 10.98 24.87 0.39 61.80

1990 0.0007 5.56 9.60 15.29 69.55 3.33 9.60 15.29 0.41 71.37

1995 0.0007 5.44 9.63 15.42 69.51 3.30 9.63 15.42 0.40 71.26

1999 0.0007 6.24 15.07 12.84 65.84 3.81 15.07 12.84 0.42 67.86

2003 0.0005 10.56 6.62 33.35 49.48 5.09 6.62 33.35 0.85 54.10

Note：Regional gap is decomposed by the Theil Entropy. “General”: Theil Entropy for all provinces; “East”, “Middle”

and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions.

Source: the same as Table 3.


Education: adult literacy ratio

Table 7 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Adult Literacy Ratio (1982－2003）



ities B-R

1982 0.0095 23.19 32.27 34.74 9.80 15.76 32.27 34.74 0.02 17.21

1990 0.0044 11.91 25.69 48.34 14.06 9.03 25.69 48.34 0.05 16.88

1995 0.0027 11.27 7.95 58.28 22.49 8.77 7.95 58.28 0.02 24.97

1999 0.0024 23.87 14.32 47.01 14.80 20.45 14.32 47.01 0.07 18.15

2003 0.0016 19.91 11.43 53.28 15.38 16.79 11.43 53.28 0.06 18.44


and “West”: disparities within east, middle and west region; “B-R”: disparities between regions

Source: same as Table 3.


Education: gross enrollment

Table 7 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Adult Literacy Ratio (1982－2003）



ities B-R

1982 0.0095 23.19 32.27 34.74 9.80 15.76 32.27 34.74 0.02 17.21

1990 0.0044 11.91 25.69 48.34 14.06 9.03 25.69 48.34 0.05 16.88

1995 0.0027 11.27 7.95 58.28 22.49 8.77 7.95 58.28 0.02 24.97

1999 0.0024 23.87 14.32 47.01 14.80 20.45 14.32 47.01 0.07 18.15

2003 0.0016 19.91 11.43 53.28 15.38 16.79 11.43 53.28 0.06 18.44





Income: per capita GDP

Table 9 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in GDP Per Capita (1982-2003)



ities B-R

1982 0.0869 43.78 11.11 3.93 41.18 6.97 11.11 3.93 1.44 76.56

1990 0.0667 25.29 10.92 5.66 58.13 8.71 10.92 5.66 1.64 73.06

1995 0.1022 15.31 4.09 5.45 75.15 6.15 4.09 5.45 0.66 83.65

1999 0.1159 18.31 3.98 4.81 72.91 5.37 3.98 4.81 1.04 84.81

2003 0.1295 17.71 3.81 5.02 73.47 5.39 3.81 5.02 0.69 85.10





Human development index (HDI)

Table 10 Decomposition of Regional Disparities in HDI (1982-2003)



ities B-Rl

1982 0.0050 23.38 11.80 19.02 45.80 9.86 11.80 19.02 0.35 58.97

1990 0.0025 15.49 9.38 15.18 59.95 6.83 9.38 15.18 0.35 68.25

1995 0.0027 10.01 3.59 16.41 69.99 3.98 3.59 16.41 0.32 75.69

1999 0.0023 15.15 5.01 13.91 65.93 5.40 5.01 13.91 0.47 75.21

2003 0.0021 14.35 4.24 20.90 60.52 4.52 4.24 20.90 0.46 69.88





Source of regional disparities

Table 11 Main Conclusions from the Decomposition of Regional Disparities in Human Development

HDI

Regional disparity

trend 1982-2003

Main disparity

Intra-regional main

disparity

Inter-regional disparity trend

1982-2003

Difference between

municipalities and eastern

coastal cities

Health Life expectancy

Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before narrowing

Insignificant

Adult literacy ratio

Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before narrowing

Insignificant

Gross enrollment ratio

Narrowing B-R － Enlarging before Narrowing

Significant Education

Education composite

Narrowing W-R Western part Fluctuating Significant

Economy Per capita GDP

Narrowing before enlarging

B-R Eastern part Enlarging Significant

General HDI Narrowing B-R Western part Enlarging before

narrowing Significant

Note：Sorting out by the Author based on analysis. “B-R”: disparities between regions; “W-R”: disparities within

regions.


Conclusions and Discussion

• The rising human development level is attributable to the steady rise in human development levels in various regions. China’s regional development has been quite uneven since reform and opening up.

• In 1982-2003, the regional disparities in China’s economic development experienced a narrowing-enlarging process while the regional disparities in health and education have been narrowing to varying degrees and so have the disparities in HDI.


Conclusions and Discussion

• Target of China’s well-off society: when China’s GDP per capita reaches the average level of the world, HDI should reach a high human development level and about 70% of the people entering the “1st world”, 20% in the “2nd world” and no people would be in the “3rd world”.

• China’s development model: the income per capita is relatively lower than that of developed countries, but the living of the people have reached a fairly high human development level.

Documents

Ccs.tsinghua.edu.cn | [email protected] Evolution of Regional Pattern and Disparities of Chinas Human Development (1982-2003) Hu Angang Center for