CCS_Retrofit Analysis of global installed coal fired PP.pdf

8/11/2019 CCS_Retrofit Analysis of global installed coal fired PP.pdf

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MATTHIASFINKENRATH, JULIANSMITH ANDDENNISVOLK

INFORMATION PAPER

CCS RETROFIT

Analysis of the Globally Installed

Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet

2012


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MATTHIASFINKENRATH, JULIANSMITH ANDDENNISVOLK

CCS RETROFIT

Analysis of the Globally Installed

Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet

This paper is published under the authority of the Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology Directorate

and may not reflect the views of individual International Energy Agency (IE A) member or non-member countries.

Data and information is provided for informational purposes only, and the IEA is not liable for any errors in their content.For further information, please contact Dennis Volk at: [email protected]

2012


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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974.Its primary mandate was and is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its membercountries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative

research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 membercountries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation amongits member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.The Agencys aims include the following objectives:

n Secure member countries access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.

n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protectionin a global context particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contributeto climate change.

n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis ofenergy data.

n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies

and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energyefficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.

n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement anddialogue with non-member countries, industry, international

organisations and other stakeholders.IEA member countries:

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Canada

Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Japan

Korea (Republic of)

Luxembourg

NetherlandsNew Zealand

Norway

Poland

Portugal

Slovak Republic

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

The European Commission

also participates in

the work of the IEA.

Please note that this publication

is subject to specific restrictions

that limit its use and distribution.

The terms and conditions are available

online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp

OECD/IEA, 2012

International Energy Agency9 rue de la Fdration

75739 Paris Cedex 15, France

www.iea.org


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OECD/IEA2012 CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet

Page|3

Tableofcontents

Acknowledgements..........................................................................................................................6

Backgroundandmotivation.............................................................................................................7

Scopeofthisstudy............................................................................................................................8

Retrofitassessmentcriteria.............................................................................................................9

DefinitionofthepotentialforCCSretrofitting..........................................................................9

Keyfindingsfromliterature.....................................................................................................10

Informationavailablefromglobaldatabases..........................................................................11

Limitationsanduncertainties........................................................................................................11

Analysisofthegloballyinstalledfleet...........................................................................................14

Globalprofileoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.....................................................14

CountrieswiththelargestCO2emissionsfromcoalfiredpowergeneration........................15

Caseanalyses..................................................................................................................................17

Impactofminimumpowerplantsizeandageonplantpopulation.......................................18

Case1(units100MW)resultsonagloballevel..............................18



AnalysisformajorCO2emittingcountries.....................................................................................21

China........................................................................................................................................21

Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis..................................................................21

Keycountryspecificconclusions.....................................................................................22

UnitedStatesofAmerica.........................................................................................................22



India.........................................................................................................................................23



Germany..................................................................................................................................25



Russia.......................................................................................................................................26



Japan........................................................................................................................................27




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CCSRetrofitAnalysisoftheGloballyInstalledCoalFiredPowerPlantFleet OECD/IEA2012

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SouthAfrica.............................................................................................................................28



Australia...................................................................................................................................30



RepublicofKorea.....................................................................................................................31



Poland......................................................................................................................................32



Summary..................................................................................................................................33

Analysisof

expected

new

installations..........................................................................................35

Summaryandconclusions..............................................................................................................37

Observationsfromanalysingthegloballyinstalledfleet........................................................37

Perspectivesonnewinstallationsinthecomingdecades......................................................38

Findingsfromthecountrylevelanalysis.................................................................................39

Keyconclusions.......................................................................................................................39

Acronyms,abbreviationsandunitsofmeasure............................................................................41

References......................................................................................................................................42

ListofFigures

Figure1 Definitionsofretrofitpotential.......................................................................................9

Figure2 WEPPandeGRIDdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet

intheUnitedStates.......................................................................................................12

Figure3 WEPPandBNetzAdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermany.......13

Figure4 Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageand

generationcapacity.......................................................................................................14

Figure5 Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageand

performancelevel.........................................................................................................15

Figure6 BreakdownofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthroughthe

productionofelectricity,heat,andpowergenerationcapacity..................................16

Figure7 Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdown

byageandcapacity.......................................................................................................18

Figure8 Breakdownofyoung(100MW)coalfiredpowerplants.........18



Figure10 Breakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants.........19




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Figure12 Furtherbreakdownofyoung(300MW)

coalfiredpowerplants.................................................................................................20

Figure13 China:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................21

Figure14 UnitedStatesofAmerica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants..........22

Figure15 India:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants..........................................24

Figure16 Germany:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants....................................25

Figure17 Russia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants........................................26

Figure18 Japan:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................28

Figure19 SouthAfrica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants...............................29

Figure20 Australia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants....................................30

Figure21 Korea:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.........................................31

Figure22 Poland:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants.......................................33

Figure23 New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe

WEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)........................................................................35

List

of

Tables

Table1 Steamconditionsofpulverizedcoalfiredpowerplanttechnologies..........................11

Table2 Countriesthataccountformorethan85%ofglobalCO2emissions

fromcoal/peatthroughtheproductionofelectricityandheat...................................16

Table3 Overviewoncaseresults...............................................................................................34

Table4 RegionalfocusofthisanalysisversusregionalbreakdowninWEO2011....................35

Table5 New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe


Table6 Totalretirementsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtothe



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Acknowledgements

The authors of thisdocumentwould like to thankall the contributorsand reviewers for their

inputandcomments.

Significantcontributions,valuablecommentsand feedbackwere received fromwithin the IEA,

including Keith Burnard, Osamu Ito, Dafydd Elis, Marco Baroni and Sean McCoy and from the

panelofexternalreviewers.Inthatregard,weofferspecialthankstoChristopherShortfromthe

GlobalCCSInstitute,ColinHendersonfromInternationalEnergyAgencys(IEA)CleanCoalCentre,

John Davison from the International Energy Greenhouse Gas (IEAGHG) Programme and Ping

ZhongfromAdministrativeCentreforChinasAgenda21(ACCA21).

We would also like to thank Bo Diczfalusy, Director of the Sustainable Energy Policy and

Technology Directorate, Juho Lipponen, Head of the Carbon Capture and Storage Technology

Unitat the IEA,andLszloVarr,Headof theGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision, for their

valuableadviceandsupport.

Cheryl Haines, Muriel Custodio and Angela Gosmann at the IEAs Communication andInformationOfficeprovidedessentialsupportintermsofediting,productionandpublication.


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Backgroundandmotivation

Withmorethan1600GWofinstalledgenerationcapacityin2010accordingtoIEAanalysesthe

globalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetaccountsformorethan8.5Gigatonnes(Gt)ofcarbondioxide

(CO2)emissionseachyear.ThisrepresentsroughlyonequarteroftheworldsanthropogenicCO2emissions. Despite everpresent climate change concerns, coalfired power generation is

expanding faster than ever: over the last five years, capacity additions experienced record

growthofmorethan350GW.

Further, energy scenarios by the International Energy Agency (IEA) expect an additional

1000GWby2035.Withoutfurtheractiontomitigatetheeffectsofgrowingunabatedcoalfired

power generation capacity, this represents a massive threat to the global climate. IEA

assessments suggest that CCS deployed to the global coalfired power plant fleet might

contribute to 10% of worldwide energyrelated CO2 emission reductions required to stabilise

globalwarmingby2050(IEA,2010a).InordertoachievedeepcutsinworldwideCO2emissions,

lowestcost scenarios suggest that nearly all newbuild fossilfuel power plants need to be

equippedwithCCSinthecomingdecades.

Inaddition,CCSequipmentwouldneedtobeaddedtothealreadyinstalledglobalfleetoffossil

fuelpowerplants.Thisapproach,knownasCCSretrofitting,isexpectedtoplayanimportantrole

inaddressingtheproblemofCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelpowerplantsthathavebeenalready

lockedin.TheimportanceforCCSretrofittingisfurtherexacerbatedbythesignificantlifetime

ofexistingpowerplantsandthevery largenumberofplants likelytobebuiltoverthecoming

decadeswithoutCO2emissionsabatement.

Modelling resultsprovideestimatesof the requiredoveralldeploymentofCCS retrofittocoal

firedpowerplants.Inordertomeetambitiousemissionreductionlevelsat lowestcost,theIEA

Energy

Technology

Perspectives

2010 (ETP2010)analysissuggeststhatCCSretrofitwillplayan

increasingly significant role until 2030. New fossilfuel power plants built in the next ten totwentyyearsshould,hence,bedesignedinamannerthatwouldallowforCCSretrofitting.Until

2050,ETP2010projectsthat114GWofcoalfiredcapacitywouldneedtoberetrofittedwithCCS

globally,inordertoachievestabilisationofglobalwarmingatsustainablelevelsatlowestcosts.

Thisisasignificantsharerelativetothe550GWofnewcoalfiredpowerplantsand298GWof

newgasfiredcapacitywithCCStobeinstalledgloballyoverthesameperiod(until2050)inthe

same scenario. While nearly the entire global coalfired power plant fleet will need to be

equippedwithCCSfromthebeginning,16%ofthetotalcoalcapacityoperatingwithCCSby2050

willneedtoberetrofittedpowerplants.

Retrofitting CCS, is, however, a complex task that requires consideration of many sitespecific

aspects. An exactanalysisof thepotential to retrofit CCS to theglobal coalfiredpower plant

fleet, including all of the many parameters critical towards an assessment of the technical,

economicandsocialviabilitytoretrofitCCS,isnotpossibleduetolackofavailabledataandthe

diversityofmarketcircumstances. Informationfromglobaldatabases, IEAstatisticsandthe IEA

World

Energy

Outlook

2011 (WEO 2011), however, provides an indication of the present and

futuresize,ageandperformanceprofile,aswellastheregionaldistributionoftheglobalcoal

firedpowerplantfleet.Thisstudypresentsdatafromthetencountrieswhichtogetheraccount

formorethan85%oftheworldsCO2emissionsfromcoalfiredpowergenerationanddiscusses

thepercentageofthatpopulationofplantsthatcouldbeparticularlyattractive forconsidering

CCS retrofit. This study does not assess the potentiallimiting technical, economic and other

constraintstoarriveattherealisticretrofitpotential.


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Scopeofthisstudy

Alargenumberofcoalfiredpowerplantsarecurrentlyinoperationworldwide.Nocompleteset

of technical information of individual units of this globally installed fleet exists. However,

availabledatabasescoverthebulkoftheseplants inarelativelycomprehensivemanner.Thesedatabasestypicallyincludekeyinformationrelatedtothesize,age,andperformancelevelofthe

vastmajorityofthegloballyinstalledcoalfiredpowerplants.

Thefollowinganalysis isbasedon IEAstatistical information incombinationwithdatafromthe

UDIWorldElectricPowerPlantsDataBase (Platts,2011), referred tohenceforthas theWEPP

database.Data fromthe IEAareused inthisstudy forvalidationofWEPPresults. IEAdataare

typicallybasedondirectsubmissionsbyIEAmemberandnonmembercountries,aswellasthe

agencysownanalysis.Submitteddataareoftenaggregatedonacountrywidelevel.

Thisstudy illustratesthesizeandregionaldistributionoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpower

plantfleetthatispotentiallyrelevantforCCSretrofitting.Thestudydrawsuponexistingresearch

on

CCS

retrofitting:

several

studies

have

estimated

the

effective

potential

for

retrofitting

on

a

regionallevel,oftenbasedongenericassumptions.Whilesignificantprogresshasbeenmadeon

understanding the importance of different aspects relevant for assessing CCS retrofitting, the

realisticglobalpotential is stillunclear.Nodetailedeconomicanalysis isperformedunder this

study. Instead,a rangeof selected criteria forcoalfiredpowerplants isextracted fromglobal

databases and combined with fundamental economic considerations in order to provide a

realisticestimateofthepotentialforretrofittingplantswithCCS.Morespecifically,thefollowing

analysis illustratestheglobalandregionaldistributionbrokendowntoagenerationunitlevel

(orpowerplantblocksize)ofpowergenerationcapacities,performancelevels,andplantage.

Thesecriteriarepresentonlyafractionofvarioustechnicalandnontechnicalparameterstobe

taken intoaccount forassessing the realisticglobalpotential for retrofittingCCS.Forexample,

theanalysiscoversneitheradetailedassessmentofthecurrentinterestorpaceofdevelopmentofaspecificregionindeployingCCS,northeavailabilityandeconomicviabilityofrequiredlocal

CO2transportationandstorage.Thestudy isthusnotdesignedtoprovideanaccurateestimate

oftheactual,realisticglobalpotentialforretrofittingCCSonacommercialbasis.

However, the study does shed further light on several key aspects that are important for

consideringthefundamentalabilitytoretrofitCCS,suchas:

Relativetothegloballyinstalledfleetofcoalpowergenerationtoday,howbigistheshareof

comparativelyyoungpowerplantsthatmightbeparticularlyattractiveforCCSretrofit,andin

whichcountriesaretheylocated?

Similarly,howprevalentistheshareofcomparativelyefficientorverylargeplantsandwhatis

theirregionaldistribution?

BasedondatafromtheIEAWEO2011publication,inwhichregionsarenewcoalfiredpower

plantslikelybelocatedinthecomingdecades,andhowsignificantwilltheirpowergeneration

capacitybe,relativetotheexistingfleet?

Thisreportanalysesingreaterdetailthosetencountriesthattogetherrepresentmorethan85%

oftheworldsCO2emissionsfromtheproductionofelectricityandheatusingcoalandpeat.

Toalsoincludelikelyfuturedevelopments,dataforthepresentinstalledfleetarecomplemented

byresultsforcoalpowerplantdeployment(IEA,2011)thatareexpectedforthecomingdecades.


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Retrofitassessmentcriteria

Inthischapterdifferentdefinitionsoftheterm CCSretrofitpotentialareclarified. Inaddition,

key findings from previous studies are summarised and compared with the set of available

informationfromdatabasesontheinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.Itisnecessarytostress that the resultsof this study showa fairlyvast retrofitpotential, since theassessments

methodologyuseddoesnotincludeallrelevantfactorstoarriveattheregionspecificpotential.

Thisstudy,therefore,doesnotassess thepotentiallimiting influenceofotheraspects,suchas

spaceforequipment,storageavailability,powermarketsdesignorpublicacceptance,whichare

allabsolutelynecessaryaspectstoconsiderforrealisticretrofitpotential(seeFigure1below).

DefinitionofthepotentialforCCSretrofitting

Manyparametersarecriticalforanassessmentofthetechnical,economicandsocialviabilityto

retrofitCCS.WhilethetheoreticalpotentialofCCSretrofitincludesthetotalglobalfleetoffossil

powergeneration, the technical,costeffectiveand realisticpotential to successfullyapplyCCS

retrofits will be significantly lower, as illustrated in Figure 1. The focus of this study is on

specifying the theoretical potential for CCS retrofit, and providing an approximation of the

magnitude of upper limit estimates for the technical and costeffective potential. Due to the

complexityoftheassessmentandlackofsitespecificdataonagloballevel,assessingtheactual

realisticpotentialforCCSretrofitisbeyondthescopeofthestudy.

Figure1Definitionsofretrofitpotential

Evenonaplantlevel,itisahighlycomplextasktoassessthetechnicalandeconomicalviabilityas

wellasthesocialacceptabilityofaspecificretrofitproject.Henceanyattempttoextrapolatea

sitespecific analysis to the globally installed power plant fleet in order to quantify a realistic

potentialforretrofittingCCStopowerplantsgloballyorevenwithinawiderregionisnotfeasible.

Alloperating

powerplants

CO2storage and

transportavailability

Spaceforequipment

Accesstoutilities

Fluegaspollutants

treatment

requirements

Size

of

unitAgeofunit

Performanceofunit

Publicacceptance

Powermarket

conditionsand

competitivenessRegulatory

framework

Theoretical Technical&

CosteffectiveRealistic

P

otentialforCCS

Retrofit Consideringsite

specifictechnical

&economical

constraints

Considering

additional

constraints


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Keyfindingsfromliterature

ManypublicationshaveanalysedCCSretrofittingofcoalfiredpowerplants,suchastherecent

comprehensivestudybytheIEAGreenhouseGasImplementingAgreement(IEAGHG,2011).This

study provides very useful technical background information and an overview of the related

relevantliteraturethatwaspublishedoverthelastyears.

Globalenergy scenarios suggest thatCCS retrofit isanecessity fordeepCO2emission cuts, in

addition to constructing new power plants with CCS. Most studies, however, agree with

conclusions fromanearlierassessmentby the InternationalPanelonClimateChange (IPCC) in

2005thatstates:RetrofittingexistingplantswithCO2captureisexpectedtoleadtohighercosts

andsignificantlyreducedoverallefficienciesthanfornewlybuiltpowerplantswithcapture.The

costdisadvantagesofretrofittingmaybereducedinthecaseofsomerelativelynewandhighly

efficientexistingplantsorwhereaplant issubstantiallyupgradedor rebuilt (IPCC,2005).The

samereport listssomeadditionaldisadvantagesofCCSretrofits,dependingon the typeof the

existingpowerplant,suchas:

Potential sitespecific constraints, such as lack of availability of land for the capture

equipment;

Incomparisontonewbuildpowerplants,reducedremainingplantlifeofthepowerplant, if

not upgraded or retrofitted. A long plant life would be beneficial forjustifying the large

expenseofinstallingcaptureequipment;

Tendencytohave lowefficienciesand,consequently,aproportionallygreater impactonthe

netoutputthaninhighefficiencyplants.

Inordertominimisesitespecificconstraints,ithasbeenproposedthatnewplantsbebuiltCCS

ready to reduce these and other disadvantages apparent when CCS retrofitting an already

operationalplant.ThisconceptisanimportantoptionfornotfurtherlockinginCO2emissions

frompowerplantsthatwillbebuilt inthenearfuture.Intermsofthecurrentglobalcoalfiredpowerfleet,thenumberofplantsthathavebeenalreadydesignedCCSreadyis,however,verylow.

Another relatively recent publication underlined the advantages of preferring modern power

plants for retrofitting CCS. Summary notes of a workshop on retrofitting CCS held at the

MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology(MIT)in2009concludethat:relativelylarge(300MWeor

greater), high efficiency coal plants with installed FGD [flue gas desulphurization] and SCR

[selective catalytic reduction] capability are the best candidates for CCS retrofit. By contrast,

retrofit is not attractive for old, lower efficiency, smaller, subcritical units. Rebuilding or

repowering isanoptiondependingon significantCO2pricesbeing inplace. (MIT,2009).Asa

generalfindingfromtheworkshop,costeffectiveretrofitsforcarboncapturearemostsuitable

fornewer, largerplants.NthplantCO2avoidancecostsforsupercriticalplantsaresignificantly

lower than those for subcritical plants. Analysis by EPRI that was presented at the same

workshopconcludesthatcosteffectiveretrofitsforcarboncapturearemostsuitableforboilers

thatare300MWorlargerandlessthanabout35yearsold.

ThedetailedstudybyIEAGHGfrom2011ingeneralsupportsthestatementthatCCSretrofitsto

plantswithlowerefficiencieswilltendtohavehighergenerationcostsandsoaregenerallyless

likely to be competitive with new build CCS replacements (IEAGHG, 2011). Costs of CCS per

tonne of CO2 captured are found likely somewhat higher for retrofitted plants. However, the

study emphasizes the strong effect of other sitespecific factors on retrofit generation costs

makesadefiniteminimumefficiencythresholdforretrofittinginappropriate.Thestudyactually

identifiesarangeofconditionsunderwhichcostsofelectricitymayeven lookmorefavourable


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forpowerplants with retrofittedCCS, compared to newbuild power plants withCCS. For the

specific set of parameter assumptions chosen in this study, the threshold lower heatingvalue

(LHV)efficiencybelowwhichretrofitoncoalplantswouldbecomeunattractivewasfoundtobe

intheregionof35%(about33%efficiencyintermsofhigherheatingvalue(HHV)).

Another detailed study on the potential of CCS retrofitting the currently operating coalfiredpower plant fleet in the United States was performed by the US National Energy Technology

Laboratory (NETL,2011).ParametersusedbyNETL forscreeningandsinglingoutpowerplants

thatarenotamenabletoCO2captureretrofitincludedthosethat:

arenotcurrentlyoperating;

haveacapacitylessthan100MW;

havea2008reportedheatrategreaterthan12500Btu/kWh (HHV)orabout29%efficiency

(LHV);

donothaveadefinedCO2repositorywithin25miles(40kilometres).

Informationavailable

from

global

databases

Basedonthefindingsfrom literaturethataresummarisedabove,thisstudyusesdatafromthe

WEPPdatabaseorganisedinawaythatillustratestheprofileofthegloballyinstalledcoalpower

fleetindifferentrelevantdimensions.Thesedimensionsincludeabreakdownintermsof:

Size,whichisthenameplatepowergenerationcapacityinMW:

upto100MWnetelectricpoweroutput,

between100and500MWnetelectricpoweroutput,brokendowninstepsof100,

above500MWnetelectricpoweroutput;

Age,whichistheyearoffirstoperation,groupingtheresultsinto5yearintervals; Performance level, differentiating between sub, super or ultrasupercritical steam

parameters.

Very limited detailed information is available in databases with a global coverage on the

performance characteristics of individual units. Steam parameters or plant power generation

efficiencydataare typicallyonlyprovided fora small fractionofplants.Asa rough indication,

Table 1 correlates general performance levels of coalfired power plants that are provided in

globalpowerplantdatabaseswithtypicalsteamparametersandpowergenerationefficiencies.It

shouldbenoted,though,thatcorrespondingsitespecificefficiency levelsmayvarysignificantly

dependingonlocalfactorssuchasambientconditions,maintenanceoroperatingregimes.

Table1Steamconditionsofpulverizedcoalfiredpowerplanttechnologies

Type of coal-fired power plant Temperature (C) Pressure (bar)Typical maximumefficiency (LHV)

Subcritical (SUBCR) 538 167 39%

Supercritical (SUPERC) 540-566 250 42%

Ultra-supercritical* (ULTRSC) 580-620 270-290 47%

Source:Hendriksetal,2004.

*Itshouldbenotedthatnointernationallyaccepteddefinitionofultrasupercriticalcurrentlyexists.Forexample,theIEAETPanalysis

(IEA,2010)definesultrasupercriticalasplantswithoperatingsteamtemperatures 600C.


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Limitationsanduncertainties

Availabledatabasesontheinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetareextensive,butnotable

to cover the full fleet. Databases such as WEPP typically claim anearly complete coverage of

extantplantsintheorderof95%ormoreofthefacilities.DataforChinaareanexception,wheretheconsiderablemajority,ormorethan75%offacilities,areclaimedtobecovered.

Figure2WEPPandeGRIDdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetintheUnitedStates

For the purposes of this study, most countries are well covered by the WEPP database. An

exampleisprovidedinFigure2,whichcomparesdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet

in theUnitedStates from theWEPPdatabase,and from theEmissions&GenerationResource

IntegratedDatabase(eGRID)databaseoftheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(eGRID,2011).

The overall age and capacity profiles of databases are matching very well. The total installed

capacityaccordingtoWEPPis317GW,whichisabout95%ofthecapacitythatisreportedbythe

eGRIDdatabase.

Inorderto illustratetherangeofuncertaintyofWEPPdata,Figure3presentsacomparisonof

WEPP

data

with

coal

power

plant

data

by

the

German

Federal

Network

Agency

for

Electricity,

Gas,Telecommunications,PostandRailway,Bundesnetzagentur(BNetzA,2011).

While coverageofplantsyounger than26years isquite similar, theWEPPdatabase reportsa

highershareofolderpowerplantscomparedtotheofficialdata.Thetotalcoalpowergeneration

capacity estimated for Germany by WEPP is about 19% above the data by the German

authorities.1

1 Itisbeyondthescopeofthisstudytoidentifytheexactreasonforthisdifference.PowerplantoperatorsinGermanyare

obligedtoreporttheirdatatotheGermanauthorities.ItthusmightbethattheWEPPdatabasestilllistssomeolderpower

plantsthatarenolongeroperatingtoday.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55

56

60

61

65

66

70

71

75

Installedcapacityperages

egment(MW)

Plantage

(years)

eGriddata

WEPPdata


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Figure3WEPPandBNetzAdataoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermany

EvaluatingthepotentialandtechnoeconomicviabilityofCCSretrofittinganindividualcoalfired

powerplant ischallenging. It requiresabreadthof technicalandnontechnicalconsiderations,

whichareusuallyhighlymarket,region andsitespecific.Itisunrealistictoexpectaglobaldata

analysis

to

provide

an

exact

picture

of

the

realistic

potential

of

retrofitting

worldwide.

It is, hence, beyond the scope of this study to assess in detail the technical feasibility and

economicalattractivenessofCCSretrofittingacrossthegloballyinstalledfleet.Nonetheless,this

analysis aims to support and inform the ongoing discussion on the effective potential for

retrofitting. Further, it focuses on the likely potential of retrofitting, based on available data

relatedtotheglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleet.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

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40

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45

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50

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65

66

70

71

75

Totalcapacityperagesegment(MW

)

Plantage(years)

BNetzA

DataWEPPdata


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Analysisofthegloballyinstalledfleet

Thischapterpresentsresultsoftheanalysisoftheglobalcoalfiredpowerplantfleetbasedon

theWEPPdatabaseandIEAstatistics.Alldatapresentedinthisstudyconsideronlyinstalledcoal

firedpower

plants

currently

in

operation.

Power

plants

that

are

either

under

construction

or

havebeenmothballed,retiredorshutdownalsoexist,butarenotpresentinthisstudy.Although

data are referred to as power plant data throughout the document, the underlying data are

basedonindividualpowergenerationunits(blocks).

Globalprofileoftheinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantfleet

Figure4 illustratestheageandsizeprofileoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,

whichconsistsofapproximately1627GWgeneratingcapacity intotal.Thefigureshowsavery

steepincreaseinnetpowergeneratingcapacityfromcoalfiredpowerplantsoverthelastfiveyears,

inparticular for largepowerplantsabove300MWcapacity.Basedontheavailabledata,more

thanone

fifth

of

the

currently

installed

fleet

worldwide

is

younger

than

five

years

old,

and

more

thanhalfof the installed fleet isyounger than20years. In termsof retrofitopportunities, the

comparably largeshareof fairlyyoungand largepowerplants thatare installedandoperating

wouldsuggestaratherlargepopulationofpowerplantstobesuitableforretrofittingCCS.

Figure4Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageandgenerationcapacity

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Percentageofglobalcapacity

Totalglobalcapacityperagesegment(MW)

Plantage(years)

500+MW

400499MW

300399MW

200299MW

100199MW

099MW


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Figure5showsthemovetowards installingsupercriticalandultrasupercriticalcoalfiredpower

plants over the last two decades. Nonetheless, the vast majority of installed plants still use

subcriticalsteamconditions,andcannotreachperformancelevelsofstateofthearttechnology.

In fact, the totalcapacityof installed subcriticalcoalfiredpowerplants reacheda recordhigh

overthelastfiveyears.

Figure5Totalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityglobally,brokendownbyageandperformancelevel

CountrieswiththelargestCO2emissionsfromcoalfired

powergeneration

Together,onlytencountriesrepresentmorethan85%of theworlds totalCO2emissions from

coal or peat through the production of electricity and heat, which, based on IEA statistics,

accumulated

to

8.2

Gt

in

2008.

These

ten

countries

and

the

annual

CO2

emissions

are

listed

in

Table 2. In addition, the total power generation capacity of coalfired power plants in these

countriesisprovided.Overall,thesetencountriesaccountforover1300GWor,moreprecisely,

84% of the globally installed and operating coalfired power plant fleet, which today totals

approximately1627GWworldwide.

Theinstalledglobalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityisbrokendownpercentagewisepercountry

in Figure 6. Differences between the shares CO2 emissions and power generation can be

attributed to differences in the performance and operating profile of the actual power plant

fleetsinthedifferentcountries.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

Percentageofglobalcap

acity

Totalglobalcapacityperage

segment(MW)

Plantage(years)

ULTRSC

SUPERC

SUBCR


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Page|16

Table2Countriesthataccountformorethan85%ofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthrough

theproductionofelectricityandheat

CO2emissions in Megatonnes(Mt) from electricity and heat

productionCoal power units Total capacity (MW)

China 3 017 2 929 669 259

United States 1 929 1 368 336 332

India 663 809 100 540

Germany 250 273 51 071

Russia 223 487 50 456

Japan 217 155 41 031

South Africa 203 114 37 500

Australia 203 109 29 971

Korea 150 86 26 296

Poland 149 544 32 067

Source:IEA,2010b.

Figure6BreakdownofglobalCO2emissionsfromcoal/peatthroughtheproductionofelectricity,heat,

andpowergenerationcapacity

Source:IEA,2010b.

China

37%

UnitedStates

23%India

8%

Germany

3%

Russian

Federation

3%

Japan

3%

SouthAfrica

2%

Australia

2%

Korea

2%

Poland

2%

Restofthe

world

15%

Percentofglobalemissions

China

41%

UnitedStates

21%India

6%

Germany

3%

Russia

3%

Japan

2%

SouthAfrica

2%

Poland2%

Australia

2%

Korea

2%

Restofthe

world

16%

Coalfiredpowerplantfleet(1627GW)


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Page|17

Caseanalyses

Thisstudy illustratesthepotentialsizeoftheglobally installedcoalfiredpowerplantfleetthat

couldbemostattractiveforconsideringCCSretrofit.

Resultsfordifferentglobalcaseanalysesarepresentedassumingcertainminimumrequirements

relatedtothreedimensions:1)generatingcapacity,2)plantage,and3)performancelevel.While

these results only indicate quantities of the theoretical potential of CCS retrofitting, they

nonetheless provide the reader with an idea of the order of magnitude and potential, while

providing guidance on which geographic regions are most attractive for further followup

analysis.

Forthepurposeofthisstudy,threeCCSretrofitcasesarechosen:

Case1:PlantsconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitthatareyoungerthan30yearsandhavea

powergenerationcapacityabove100MW;


powergenerationcapacityabove300

MW;


powergenerationcapacityabove300MW.

Theparameter limitsforthethreecasesarederivedfromfindingsfromsitespecificstudies,as

outlinedearlier,and shouldnotbe construedashavinganyother legitimacybeyond this.The

levels for generating capacity,age,and performance level arebestestimatesand intended to

supportthereadersownjudgementonrealisticpotentialforCCSretrofitting.

Allcasesarebasedononly twohighlevelcriteria related to theageand capacity levelof the

operating coalfired power plants covered in the used databases. Any further sitespecific

considerations,suchasavailabilityofspaceforretrofit,technicalpossibilitytoretrofit,accessto

costeffective,sufficientCO2transportationandstorageinfrastructure,economicattractiveness,

sufficient legislative support and social acceptance are beyond the scope of this study. These

considerationswill,however, likely to lead toa significant reduction in theactualpotential to

realizeCCSretrofitting.

Resultsfrompreviousstudiescanprovideafirstimpressiononhowthepopulationofpotentially

attractivecoalfiredpowerplantsisimpactedbyconsideringadditionalparameters.

Forexample,arecentstudybyNETL(NETL,2011)analysedthepopulationofcoalpowerplants

that are attractive for retrofit was reduced by 13% when considering if a potential CO2

sequestrationtargetwaswithin25miles(40km)distance.

Inaddition,adetailedstudyoftheCCSretrofittingpotentialinChinaconcludedthatbynumber

ofsitesabove1000MW installedcapacityonly19%appeartohaveahighretrofitpotential

(Li,2010).Thepotentialfor35%oftheanalysedsitesremaineduncertain,while43%ofthesites

wereconsiderednotsuitableforCCSretrofitting.


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Page|18

Impactofminimumpowerplantsizeandageonplantpopulation

Basedonavailabledata,thecapacityofthecurrentlyoperatingglobalfleetofcoalfiredpower

plantsis1627GW.

Case1(units

100

MW)

results

on

aglobal

level

Figure7Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity

Figure7 illustratesthatabout1519GW,ormorethan93%oftotalglobally installed fleet,are

actually units that have a power generation output above 100 MW. More than 63% of the

globally installed fleet, or 1036 GW, are both above 100 MW in capacity and younger than

30years

old.

Nearly

60%

of

these

plants

are

located

in

China,

in

total

600

GW.

Figure8Breakdownofyoung(100MW)coalfiredpowerplants

Figure 8 illustrates the exceptional role thatChinaplays in this context.Not only is the total

generationcapacityinChinaoverwhelming,aspresentedinTable2,butnoothercountryhasa

similarlylargeoperatingcoalpowerfleetinthisageandcapacitysegment.

China,600

UnitedStates,86

India,79

Germany,24

Russia,12

Japan,34

SouthAfrica,24

Poland,10

Australia,20

Korea,24

Restofthe

world,124


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Page|19

Case2(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel

Approximately1113GWor68%ofunits in theglobalcoalfiredpowerplant fleetcurrently in

operationareabove300MWofpowergenerationoutput,as illustrated inFigure9.Underthis

morestringentsecondcase,ifonlyplantsthatareyoungerthan20yearsareconsidered,665GW

remainpotential

candidates

for

CCS

retrofitting,

or

about

41%

of

the

global

operational

fleet.

Out

ofthispopulationofplantsthatappearparticularlyattractiveforCCSretrofitting,481GWor72%

arelocatedinChina.

Figure9Installedtotalcoalfiredpowerplantcapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity

Consideringtheregionalbreakdown,itisremarkablethatthecontributionoftheinstalledfleetin

anyothercountrythanChinatotheglobalpopulationofplantswithsimilarcharacteristicsdoes

notexceed

25

GW,

as

shown

in

Figure

10.

Figure10Breakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants

These data underline the overwhelming importance that should be attributed to further

understanding the realisticpotentialofCCS, ingeneral,and retrofitting, inparticular, inChina

compared to other large CO2 emitting countries. The size, capacity and age profile of the

operating Chinese coalfired power plant fleet is remarkable in the context of better

understandingandquantifyingarealisticpotentialforCCSretrofitting.

China,481

UnitedStates,20

India,24

Germany,9

Russia,1

Japan,25

SouthAfrica,7

Poland,2

Australia,7

Korea,21

Restofthe

world,58


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Page|20

Case3(units300MW)resultsonagloballevel

Under these highest stringent requirements, only taking into account bigger sized coalfired

powerplantsatanagebelow10years,471GWremainpotentialcandidatesforCCSretrofitting,

orabout29%oftheglobaloperationalfleet.Outofthispopulationofplantsthatappeartobe

attractivefor

retrofit,

390

GW

or

83%

are

located

in

China.

Figure11Installedtotalcoalfiredpowercapacityinallcountriesandbreakdownbyageandcapacity

In comparison to the resultsof the second caseanalysis, these results further amplifyChinas

prospectsforretrofittingCCSduetotheageoftheexistingplants.

Figure12Furtherbreakdownofyoung(300MW)coalfiredpowerplants

Irrespectiveoftheparametersappliedinthisstudyfornarrowingthetechnicalretrofitpotential

oftodays

installed

fleet,

other

factors

such

as

technological

maturity

will

influence

the

realistic

potentialforCCSretrofitting.There isuncertaintyonwhenCCScanreach itscommercialisation

phase in thepowersector,but theexperienceswithsomecurrentdemonstrationprojectscan

leavedoubtsonreachingthatphaseby2020.2Evenifthecommercialisationstageisreachedby

2020,thiswillmeanthatthepotentialgivenabovewillbereduced,sinceplantswillgrowolder.

Therefore,itisofspecificinteresttoassessboththeexistingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,aswell

asplants likely tobebuilt in the future.This leads to theconclusion thatspecialconsideration

shouldbegiventoallowingforcosteffectiveCCSretrofitting inthefuturewhendesigningnew

powerplantsnotyetequippedwithCCS.

2Forexample,theIEAWorldEnergyOutlook2011examinestheresultsofatenyeardelayforCCS.

China,390

UnitedStates,14

India,18

Germany,1

Russia,1

Japan,10

SouthAfrica,1

Poland,1

Australia,3

Korea,11

Restoftheworld,23


23/46


Page|21

AnalysisformajorCO2emittingcountries

Thischapterpresentsamoredetailedbreakdownoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetin

those ten countries that account for more than 85% of the worlds CO2 emissions from coal

powergeneration.

China

Characteristics of the current coal power plant fleet in China are illustrated in the following

figure,whichshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoalpowerplantfleet.

Figure13China:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants

Generalobservationsfromthecaseanalysis

ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinChinacanbesummarisedasfollows:

Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingfleetis669GW;

89%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetisyoungerthan20years;

69%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantisyoungerthan10years;

75% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above

300MW;

25%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam

parameters;

27% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 20 years has

super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;


super orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300

000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55

Installednewcapacity

(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|22

Case1 (powerplantsyoungerthan30yearsandabove100MWcapacity):90%ofthetotal

operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or600GW;



Case3(power

plants

younger

than

10

years

and

above

300

MW

capacity):

58%

of

the

total

operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or390GW.

Keycountryspecificconclusions

Chinahasclearlythelargestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinstalledinasinglecountry.Inaddition,

amongthetencountrieswiththelargestcoalfiredpowergenerationcapacityworldwide,China

hasbyfartheyoungestfleetcurrentlyinoperation.Itistobenotedhoweverthat,ofthe293GW

plant capacity installed over the last five years, almost 50% employed subcritical steam

conditions.

Consideringthe largetotaloperatingcapacity,thehighaveragecapacityofsingleunitsandthe

youngage

profile

of

the

Chinese

coal

power

fleet,

it

has

by

far

the

largest

population

of

coal

powergenerationunitsthatshouldbeconsideredattractiveforCCSretrofitting.

Giventherelativelyrecent,verysteep,increaseincapacityadditionsofcoalfiredpowerplantsin

China, it is incumbentonpolicymakerstoanalyseandconsidertheneedtodesignnewpower

plantsCCSreadyand,hence,avoidthefuturelockinofCO2emissions.

UnitedStatesofAmerica

Characteristicsof the currentlyoperating coalfiredpowerplant fleet in theUnited States are

illustrated in the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the

completecoal

power

plant

fleet.

Figure14UnitedStatesofAmerica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|23


ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetintheUnitedStatescanbesummarised

asfollows:

The reported total generation capacity of the operating coalfired power plant fleet is

336GW;




300MW;


parameters;



36% of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet that is younger than 10 years hassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.



Case2 (powerplantsyounger than20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):6%of the total


Case3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):4%of the total


Keycountry

specific

conclusions

The coalfiredpowerplant fleet in theUnitedStates is the second largest installed ina single

country.Amongthetencountrieswiththelargestcoalpowergenerationcapacityworldwide,the

UnitedStateshasthelowestshareofpowerplantsthatareyoungerthan20yearsold.Theshare

ofpowergenerationunitswithacapacityabove300MWishowevercomparativelyhigh.3

India

Characteristics of the currently operating coal power plant fleet in India are illustrated in the

Figure15below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoalpower

plantfleet.


ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinIndiacanbesummarisedasfollows:

Thetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethas101GWofgenerationcapacity;



3ThesmallshareofveryoldultrasupercriticalpowerplantsintheUnitedStatesrepresentslikelytheveryfirstunitsofthis

technologythatwereunderdevelopmentatthattime(asimilarphenomenoncanbefoundforRussia).


26/46


Page|24


300MW;

1%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam

parameters;

1%ofthe

total

operating

coal

fired

power

plant

fleet

that

is

younger

than

20

years

has

super

orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;

2%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetthatisyoungerthan10yearshassuper

orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters.



Case2(powerplantsyoungerthan20yearsandabove300MWcapacity):24%ofthetotal



operatingcoal

fired

power

plant

fleet,

or

18

GW.

Figure15India:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


Thecoalfiredpowerplantfleet in India isthethird largest installed inasinglecountry.Among

thetencountrieswiththelargestcapacitycoalfiredpowerplantfleetsworldwide,Indianplants

haveacomparablyhighshareofgenerationunitswithrelativelysmallgenerationcapacity.Apart

from a very few recentlybuilt exceptions, the Indian coalfiredpowerplant fleet isbasedon

subcriticaltechnology.

ThesteepincreaseincoalfiredpowerplantadditionsoverthelastyearsinIndiarequiresspecial

consideration in terms ofdesigning new plants not already equippedwith CCS in away that

wouldallowcosteffectiveCCSretrofitinthefuture.However,otherfactorssuchasthegeneral

acceptanceofCCShavetoimprove,toraiseIndiasretrofitpotential.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55

Installednew

capacity

(MW)perage

segment

Plantage(years)

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|25

Germany

CharacteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinGermanyare illustrated

inthe following figure.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoal

powerplantfleet.

Figure16Germany:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


The

fundamental

characteristics

of

the

coal

power

fleet

in

Germany

can

be

summarised

as

follows:

Thereportedtotalgenerationcapacityoftheoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetis51GW;



75%of the total operating coalfired power plant fleet has a generation capacity above

300MW;


parameters;









Case 3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):2%of the total


0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)

peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|26


ThefleetinGermanyisthefourthlargestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinstalledinasinglecountry.

BasedonWEPPdata, fouroutof fiveof the coalfiredpowerplants currently inoperation in

Germany are older than 20 years.4Germany has a fairlyhigh share of large coalfired power

plantunits.

Russia

Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet inRussiaare illustrated in

the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal

powerplantfleet.

Figure17Russia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants

Generalobservations

from

the

case

analysis

ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinRussiacanbesummarisedasfollows:





300MW;

4SeefurtherremarksondataaccuracyandadiscussionofdataforGermanyinthechapterLimitationsandUncertaintiesof

thisreport.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55

Insta

llednewcapacity

(MW

)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|27


parameters;







operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or1.4GW;



Keycountry

specific

conclusions

Russiahasthe fifth largestcoalfiredpowerplant fleet installed inasinglecountry.Amongthe

ten countries with the largest coalfired power generation worldwide, Russia is one of the

countrieswiththelowestshareofpowerplantsthatareyoungerthan20years,andthelowest

shareofpowerplantsthatlargerthan300MWcapacity.5

Japan

Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleet inJapanare illustrated in

the Figure 18 below. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the complete coal

powerplantfleet.


ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinJapancanbesummarisedasfollows:





300MW;

73%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteamparameters;





5ThesmallshareofveryoldultrasupercriticalpowerplantsinRussiarepresentslikelytheveryfirstunitsofthistechnology

thatwereunderdevelopmentatthattime(asimilarphenomenoncanbefoundfortheUnitedStates).


30/46


Page|28





Case3(power

plants

younger

than

10

years

and

above

300

MW

capacity):

25%

of

the

total


Figure18Japan:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


FollowingKoreaandChina,Japanhasoneoftheyoungestcoalfiredpowerplantfleetamongthe

ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpowergeneration capacityworldwide.Next toKorea,

Japan has one of the highest shares of super or ultrasupercritical power plants currently in

operation.

SouthAfrica

Characteristics of the currently operating coalfired power plant fleet in South Africa are

illustrated in the following figure. The figure shows the age and performance profile of the

completecoalpowerplantfleet.

0

2500

5000

7500

10

000

12500

15000

05

6

10

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|29

Figure19SouthAfrica:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


The fundamentalcharacteristicsof the coalpower fleet inSouthAfrica canbe summarisedas

follows:




86%ofthe

total

operating

coal

fired

power

plant

fleet

has

ageneration

capacity

above

300MW;

Noneofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethassuper orultrasupercriticalsteam

parameters.





Case 3 (powerplantsyounger than10yearsandabove300MW capacity):2%of the total

operatingcoal

fired

power

plant

fleet,

or

1GW.


Amongthetencountrieswiththe largestcoalfiredpowergenerationworldwideandaccording

totechnicalcriteriaobtainedfromtheWEPPdatabase,SouthAfricahasthe leastefficientfleet

currentlyinoperation,whichconsistsonlyofsubcriticalpowerplants6.Inaddition, ithasavery

lowshareofpowerplantsyoungerthan20years.

6Theoperationalefficiencyofcoalfiredpowerplants isalsoaffectedby factors suchascoalquality, cooling temperature

conditions, or the quality of the maintenance regime. It is beyond the scope of this study to identify the plantspecific

conditionsandefficiencyrates.

0

2500

5000

7500

10000

12500

15000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

SUBSC


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Page|30

Australia

Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet inAustraliaare illustrated

inthe following figure.The figureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecompletecoal

powerplantfleet.

Figure20Australia:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants

Generalobservations

from

the

case

analysis

ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinAustraliacanbesummarisedasfollows:




76%ofthetotaloperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleethasagenerationcapacityabove300MW;


parameters;


superor

ultra

supercritical

steam

parameters;









0

1000

2000

3000

40005

000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)per

agesegment

Plantage(years)

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|31


Among the ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpower generationworldwide,Australia is

amongthefourcountrieswiththelowestshareofsuper orultrasupercriticalpowergeneration

intheinstalledfleetcurrentlyinoperation.Inaddition,thefractionofpowerplantsyoungerthan

20years

is

comparably

low.

RepublicofKorea

Characteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplant fleet inKoreaare illustrated in

thefollowingFigure21below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecomplete

coalpowerplantfleet.

Figure21Korea:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinKoreacanbesummarisedasfollows:



40%of

the

total

operating

coal

fired

power

plant

fleet

is

younger

than

10

years;


300MW;


parameters;



100%of the totaloperating coalfiredpowerplant fleet that is younger than10 yearshas


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

ULTRASC

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Page|32








Among the ten countries with the largest coalfired power generation worldwide, the fleet in

Koreahasoneof the largest sharesof super orultrasupercritical coalpowergeneration ina

singlecountry.Inaddition, it isamongthethreecountrieswiththeyoungest installedfleetand

thelargestshareoflargegenerationunitsthatiscurrentlyoperating.

Thesteepincreaseinadditiontocoalfiredpowerplantoverthelast20yearsinKorearequires

specialconsiderationintermsofdesigningnewpowerplantsthatarenotalreadyequippedwith

CCSinawaythatwouldallowforcosteffectiveCCSretrofittinginthefuture.

Poland

CharacteristicsofthecurrentlyoperatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleetinPolandareillustratedin

thefollowingFigure22below.Thefigureshowstheageandperformanceprofileofthecomplete

coalpowerplantfleet.


ThefundamentalcharacteristicsofthecoalpowerfleetinPolandcanbesummarisedasfollows:





300MW;


parameters;






Case2 (powerplantsyounger than20yearsandabove300MW capacity): 8%of the total

operatingcoalfiredpowerplantfleet,or2.4GW;




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Page|33

Figure22Poland:Profileofoperatingfleetofcoalfiredpowerplants


Among the ten countrieswith the largest coalfiredpowerplant fleetworldwide, the fleet in

Polandisamongthethreecountrieswiththelowestshareofsuper orultrasupercriticalsteam

parameters,thehighestage,andthelowestshareoflargepowergenerationunits.

Summary

Key

country

level

data

related

to

the

case

analysis

are

summarised

in

Table

3

below.

In

comparisontootherregionsintheworld,thecoalpowerplantfleetsinChina,JapanandKorea

areyoung,basedonahighshareofgenerationunitswith largeindividualgenerationcapacities

and modern steam parameters. From a fundamental perspective, these conditions are

advantageousfortheeconomicsofCCSretrofitting.7

Incontrast,coalfiredpowerplantfleetsintheUnitedStates,Russia,andPolandaredominated

bycomparablyoldplants.Inaddition,theIndiancoalfiredpowerplantfleetischaracterisedbya

highshareofsmallgenerationcapacityunitsandplantsbasedonsubcriticaltechnology. Inthe

caseofRussiaandPoland,acomparablylargeshareofsmallerunitsisinstalled.Theseconditions

arebasedongenericcriteria,andnotconsideringsitespecificaspectsdisadvantageous for

the economicsof apure retrofit.However, in combinationwithupgrades, lifetime extension

measuresand

re

powering

of

older

power

plants,

CCS

retrofitting

can

still

be

an

option

also

for

thesepopulationsofcoalfiredpowerplants. Inordertonarrow the realistic retrofitpotential,

further assessments are required. This would include assessments of space availability for

retrofit,technicalpossibilitytoretrofit,accesstocosteffective,andsufficientCO2transportation

and storage infrastructure, economic attractiveness, sufficient legislative support and social

acceptance.

7ManyadditionalcriterianeedtobeconsideredwhenevaluatingCCSretrofits.Forexample,inJapanCO2storagecapacityis

consideredlimited,whichcouldsignificantlyreducetherealisticretrofitpotentialinJapan.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

05

610

11

15

16

20

21

25

26

30

31

35

36

40

41

45

46

50

51

55


(MW)peragesegment

Plantage(years)

SUPERC

SUBSC


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Table3Overviewoncaseresults

CountryTotal

Capacity

Share of plants that are

Case*youngerthan ...

years

largerthan

300 MW

super-or ultra-super-critical

super- orultra-

supercritical

and youngerthan ... years

20 10 20 10 1 2 3

China 669 GW 90% 69% 75% 25% 27% 34%90%

(600 GW)

72%

(481 GW)

58%

(390 GW)

UnitedStates

336 GW 8% 5% 74% 27% 27% 36%25%

(86 GW)

6%

(20 GW)

4%

(14 GW)

India 101 GW 58% 38% 29% 1% 1% 2%79%

(79 GW)

24%

(24 GW)

18%

(18 GW)

Germany 51 GW 21% 4% 75% 21% 77% 92%48%

(24 GW)

17%

(9 GW)

2%

(1 GW)

Russia 50 GW 19% 14% 30% 29% 32% 37%24%

(12 GW)

3%

(1.4 GW)

1%

(1 GW)

Japan 41 GW 70% 30% 77% 73% 86% 83%84%

(34 GW)

60%

(25 GW)

25%

(10 GW)

SouthAfrica

38 GW 19% 2% 86% 0% 0% 0%64%

(24 GW)

19%

(7 GW)

2%

(1 GW)

Australia 30 GW 26% 12% 76% 10% 38% 83%65%

(20 GW)

24%

(7 GW)

10%

(3 GW)

Korea 26 GW 82% 40% 88% 74% 90% 100%90%

(24 GW)

78%

(21 GW)

40%

(11 GW)

Poland 32 GW 16% 6% 25% 3% 18% 53%31%

(10 GW)

8%

(2.4 GW)

3%

(1 GW)

Note:bold:countrieswithhighestsharebycategory;underscore:countrieswithlowestsharebycategory

*Case1 includescoalfiredpowerplantsyoungerthan30yearswithagenerationcapacityabove100MW.Case2 includesplants

youngerthan20yearswithagenerationcapacityabove300MW.Case3includesplantsyounger10yearsandgenerationcapacity

above300MW.


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Analysisofexpectednewinstallations

Thischapteranalyses thepotential for retrofittingcoalfiredpowerplants thatare likely tobe

built over the coming decades. Again, an assessment including further relevant parameters,

would determine a more realistic potential for CCS retrofitting. Data from the New PoliciesScenariooftheIEAWEO2011areusedforthispurpose.TheNewPoliciesScenarioassumes

that recentgovernmentpolicy commitmentsaremeteven if theyarenotyetbackedupby

specificpolicymeasures.

Table4RegionalfocusofthisanalysisversusregionalbreakdowninWEO2011

Country Regional resolution in WEO 2011 analysis available?

China Yes

United States Yes

India Yes

Germany Covered in region EUG4 jointly with France, Italy and the United Kingdom

Russia Yes

Japan Yes

South Africa Yes

Australia Covered jointly with New Zealand

Korea Yes

Poland Covered under region EU17 jointly with other EU member countries apart from the EUG4

WEO2011datacovermostoftheindividualcountriesanalysedinthisstudy.OnlyforGermany,

Australia,andPolandaredataoftheWEO2011aggregatedwithneighbourcountries,asshown

inTable4.

Figure23New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011

NewPoliciesScenario(GW)

Theexpectedgrossnew installationsofcoalfiredpowerplants,not including retirements,are

showninFigure23above.SincepowerplantadditionsinChina,IndiaandtheUSwillrepresent

86% of the total expected gross new installations, Figure 23 groups the remaining countries

coveredbythisstudy.

In total,anestimated1112GWofnewcoalfiredpowerplantswillbe installed in theabove

mentionedregionsby2035.HalfofthenewinstallationsareexpectedtotakeplaceinChina.

0 200 400 600 800

20112025

20262035

China UnitedStates India Other


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The net newly installed coalfired power plant capacity expected up until 2035 in China is

488GW, which represents an addition of 73% to the present fleet currently in operation.

According to this scenario, the coalfiredpower plant fleet in Chinawould reach1157 GW in

2035.SouthAfrica isenvisaged toexperiencea similargrowth rateof58%during thisperiod,

whichwouldmakeittheworldsfourthlargestgeneratorofpowerfromcoal.Thehighestgrowth

rate isanticipated for India,withanadditional installationof225GW,whichwouldmorethan

doubletheircurrentlyinstalledcapacity.In2035,Indiasinstalledcoalfiredpowerplantcapacity

wouldreach325GW,wherebyIndiasfleetwouldovertakethatoftheUnitedStatestobecome

theworldssecondlargest.

Table5New(gross)installationsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011

NewPoliciesScenario(GW)

2011-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

2026-2030

2031-2035

2011-2025

2026-2035

China 197.1 135.7 76.3 72.4 73.9 409.1 146.3

United States 16.7 42.6 25.2 41.3 32.9 84.5 74.2

India 74.5 30.6 22.8 52.8 70.5 127.9 123.3

EUG4 12.4 1.4 14.7 3.7 2.7 28.5 6.4

Russia 6.8 6.9 7.6 7.1 3.8 21.2 11.0

Japan 3.1 0.2 0.1 - 1.5 3.4 1.5

South Africa 4.8 8.0 6.9 10.0 11.4 19.7 21.4

Australia & New Zealand 1.6 2.5 2.6 2.5 6.3 6.7 8.8

Korea 2.3 2.1 1.4 0.2 0.8 5.7 1.1

EU17 11.7 3.7 2.5 2.3 1.3 18.0 3.6

ThefiguresshowninTable5includethefractionofcoalfiredpowerplantsthatwouldalreadybe

equippedwithCCS.UndertheNewPoliciesScenariothisappliestoabout5%ofallcoalfired

power plants installed until 2035. In the same period, about 519 GW or 46% of the newly

installedcapacityofretirementsareexpectedunderthisscenario.Mostoftheretirementsare

likelytotakeplaceinEurope(EUG4+EU17,together37%)andtheUnitedStates(35%).

Table6TotalretirementsofcoalfiredpowerplantsaccordingtotheWEO2011NewPoliciesScenario(GW)

2011-2015

2016-2020

2021-2025

2026-2030

2031-2035

2011-2025

2026-2035

China 9.9 10.7 15.6 17.4 14.3 36.2 31.7

United States 8.3 23.6 23.5 59.0 67.9 55.5 126.9

India 1.5 3.2 3.5 6.2 12.2 8.2 18.4EUG4 5.2 28.6 21.8 8.4 16.1 55.6 24.5

Russia 8.0 9.4 8.9 10.9 5.4 26.4 16.3

Japan 1.2 2.7 2.7 1.5 4.5 6.6 6.0

South Africa 0.4 3.0 3.5 6.4 6.1 6.9 12.5

Australia & New Zealand 0.6 2.2 3.4 4.1 9.6 6.2 13.7

Korea - 0.3 1.1 0.8 2.7 1.4 3.5

EU17 5.2 9.8 16.0 17.0 14.8 31.1 31.8


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OECD/IE

Documents

CCS_Retrofit Analysis of global installed coal fired PP.pdf