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DBQ for 8th Grade ScienceCharleston County School District
How does the Current Rapid Change in Climate AffectHabitats and Species?
Science Standards 8.E.6B.2: Obtain and communicate information to support claims that natural and human-made factors can contribute to the extinction of species.
8.E.6B.3: Construct explanations from evidence for how catastrophic events (including volcanic activities, earthquakes, climatic changes, and the impact of an asteroid/comet) may have affected the conditions on Earth and the diversity of its life forms.
Day 1: 60 minutes
Step One: Hook The purpose of the Hook is to create interest in climate change by learning about species of plants and animals that migrating due to changes in their habitats.
Day 2: 60 minutes
Step Two: Background Essay The purpose of the Background Essay is to set context for the DBQ. Students should leave the Background Essay with a better understanding of what the greenhouse effect is, what fossil fuels are, and what the difference is between weather and climate.
Days 3-5: 60 minutes each
Step Three: Understanding the Question and Pre-Bucketing Refer to Step Three and Step Four teacher notes in the DBQ. In order for the students to fully understand the DBQ question, it is essential to clarify the key terms within the question. Pre-bucketing is a predictive step to clarify the task framed by the question.
Step Four: Document Analysis: Refer to the Step 4 teacher notes in the DBQ. Model document analysis with the class. Put students in small groups or partners to analyze the documents. Have students annotate the text and discuss the documents before completing the document analysis sheet. Teacher may select a student group or partners to explain the documents in front of the class.
Days 6-7: 60 minutes each
Step Five: Bucketing, Thesis Flowchart, and Thrashout Students should sort the documents into buckets and create labels for each bucket. Model how to develop a thesis, or claim, using a chicken foot diagram. Conduct a brainstorming session to create a thesis/claim in small groups or as a whole class.
Step Six: Essay Writing: Conduct a writing workshop. First, review the components of a well-written paragraph. Model a proper paragraph and highlight key elements. Give students time to use the Paragraph Outline Guide sheet to begin writing their paragraphs. Students should peer edit before having their teacher review their outlines. Lastly, students will use their Paragraph Outline Guides to construct their final paragraphs.
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Teacher Document ListThere are 6 documents in this DBQ. Students are provided with the same document list, but it is not divided into analytical categories or buckets. Students may develop buckets that are different from these. The documents in the third category come from the Hook Activity: each student will read one article but may refer to others that are shared in their essay.
Causes of Current Climate Change
Document A: The Big Idea: The Carbon Bathtub
Document B: The Keeling Curve
Document C: Carbon Dioxide Levels over Geologic Time
How Current Climate Change Affects Habitat
Document D: Recent Sea Level Rise
Document E: Sea Level Rise
Document F: Temperature Measurements
How Habitats and Species are AffectedStudents will choose examples from the hook articles:
1. No Room at the Top: High-mountain species are particularly susceptible to global warming--and North America's cold-loving pikas may be the most vulnerable of all
2. Rain Forest Plants Race to Outrun Global Warming
3. Climbing Trees: Plants Move Uphill as World Warms
4. Biggest Walrus Gathering Recorded as Sea Ice Shrinks
5. Global Warming and Waterfowl
6. Coral Marches to the Poles. Reefs may simply move house when the oceans heat up.
7. Sea-level rise threatens hundreds of U.S. animal species
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How does the Current Rapid Change in Climate AffectHabitats and Species?
Overview:
The Goldilocks Principle can be summed up neatly as "Venus is too hot, Mars is too cold, and Earth is just right." The fact that Earth has an average surface temperature comfortably between the boiling point and freezing point of water, and thus is suitable for our sort of life, cannot be explained by simply suggesting that our planet orbits at just the right distance from the sun to absorb just the right amount of solar radiation. Our moderate temperatures are also the result of having just the right kind of atmosphere. A dense Venus-type atmosphere would produce extremely hot conditions on our planet; a nearly nonexistent Mars atmosphere would leave us shivering. However, the composition of our atmosphere is changing, causing the global temperature to increase and many species to migrate to cooler climates. It is not just the change in temperature that is harmful to species, but it is also the rate of change. For some plants and animals, the change may be too rapid for them to either adapt or migrate quickly enough to survive. This DBQ is designed to investigate the reasons the Earth is warming, how the warming affects habitats, and how these changes affect species in many parts of the world.
The Documents:Document A: The Big Idea: The Carbon Bathtub
Document B: The Keeling Curve
Document C: Carbon Dioxide Levels over Geologic Time
Document D: Recent Sea Level Rise
Document E: Sea Level Rise
Document F: Temperature Measurements
Step 1: Hook Activity:
Each group of students will read a different article about a species that is responding to changes in its habitat due to climate change. Groups will summarize their major findings on a poster along with a representative drawing; these posters may be hung in the room for the duration of the DBQ project. Having multiple articles summarized builds evidence for the case that the effects of a warming planet are in fact global. Locations mentioned in the articles could also be marked on a map in the classroom. The “hook” articles are at the end of the DBQ document and include the walrus, loggerhead sea turtle, coral, birds, and trees species.
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Step 2: Background EssayAdapted from: http://www.neaq.org/conservation_and_research/climate_change/climate_change_basics.php
What is the difference between weather and climate?
Climate describes the average or typical conditions of temperature, relative humidity, cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and other meteorological factors that prevail globally or regionally for extended periods. Weather describes the hourly or daily conditions that people experience each day. This is why it’s often said that “Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get.”
People expect the weather to change and experience those changes daily. It’s harder to see how climate is changing because climate is measured over many years rather than as single events. Like weather, climate may change differently in different places. Unlike weather, climate represents trends made up of all the weather variables in a region. Changes in the trends can be subtle, but over time they indicate that what is “normal” is shifting.
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
Water vapor and trace gases in the atmosphere keep Earth about 54°F warmer than it would be without them. This function is often called the greenhouse effect, and the gases that cause it are known as greenhouse gases. The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring phenomenon that “blankets” the earth and warms it, maintaining the temperature that living things need to survive. Surprisingly, the atmosphere’s most abundant gases — nitrogen, oxygen, and argon — do not influence climate. Instead, it’s the molecules of trace gases, especially water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone (O3) that strongly absorb infrared radiation emitted by land that has been heated up by the sun. These gases then re-emit infrared radiation back toward the Earth, keeping the heat energy in the Earth-atmosphere system.
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When we burn fossil fuels, we release additional CO2 that builds up and traps heat that would otherwise escape. This human-caused blanket effect leads to warming of the planet, disrupting the atmospheric balance that keeps the climate stable. This is sometimes called the “Enhanced Greenhouse Effect.”
There is a strong correlation between the rise in global temperature and the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As CO2 increased from 1850 to 2010, the average temperature on the earth’s surface increased by about 0.8 ° C (1.4 ° F).
What are fossil fuels?
Fossil fuels are the carbon-rich remains of terrestrial plants, marine phytoplankton and zooplankton that have been buried and compressed under sediments for millions of years. Under certain conditions, the remnants of terrestrial plants turn into coal, and the marine organisms are converted into oil or natural gas (methane). Burning fossil fuels that have been mined from deep in the earth or seabed returns ancient fossil carbon, which has been out of circulation, to the atmosphere. Coal is commonly burned in power plants to make electricity. Natural gas has a variety of uses including electricity generation, home heating, and transportation. Oil is primarily used for transportation and for producing materials such as plastics.
What do scientists predict in terms of climate change?
Earth has warmed at an unprecedented rate over the last hundred years and particularly over the last two decades. All of the top 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 1998. Exactly how much warmer the atmosphere gets will depend on how quickly and effectively people can substantially reduce the activities that are causing rising temperatures.
In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published a series of scenarios ranging from “business as usual/no actions taken” to “aggressive actions taken” to reduce climate change. Models based on these scenarios from the IPCC 2014 report predict that by 2100, average global surface temperatures will likely rise by an additional 2 to 8.6 °F (1.1 to 4.8 ° C) above the 1986-2005 average. This temperature increase will be accompanied by other environmental changes such as an increase in global sea level by up to 1–2 feet.
During the remainder of this century, different locations will experience different levels of increases in temperature. As an example of what may be in store, New England’s temperature is projected to increase by 6 to 10 °F by 2100, in which case Boston’s average temperature would resemble that of Charlotte, North Carolina (a 6 degree increase) or Atlanta, Georgia (a 10 degree increase).
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Background Essay Questions: Answers
1a. List five conditions that are measured when studying weather and climate.
precipitation, wind speed, humidity, temperature, cloudiness
1b. Contrast weather and climate.
Weather means the hourly and daily conditions people experience. Climate means the average of the weather conditions over an extended period of time for a particular region.
2. If the Earth had no Greenhouse Effect, how much cooler would the average temperature be?
It would be 54 degrees F cooler.
3. Describe the steps of the Greenhouse Effect process.
First, The atmosphere allows sunlight to pass through and heat up the land and water when it is absorbed. Second, warmed land emits infrared radiation which is mostly radiated into space. Third, some of this infrared radiation is absorbed by specific gases in the atmosphere: water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Fourth, gases in the atmosphere re-emit the infrared radiation back toward the Earth. In this way, Earth is kept warmer than it would be if all of the heat was radiated into space.
4. Describe the process for forming fossil fuels, list three common forms, and explain how humans use fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels are formed when plants or small marine animals (zooplankton) are buried and compressed under sediments for millions of years. Coal, oil, and natural gas (methane) are the three common forms of fossil fuels. Humans burn fossil fuels to produce energy. Coal is burned in power plants, and oil is primarily used in transportation but also to make plastics. Natural gas is used to make electricity, home heating, and transportation.
5. What is added to the atmosphere when fossil fuels are burned, and in what ways are habitats on Earth affected by this increase?
When fossil fuels are burned, carbon dioxide is produced. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, more infrared radiation is kept near the Earth, causing the temperature to rise all over the planet. The temperature is predicted to rise 2-8.6 degrees F this century, and the sea level is expected to rise. Both of changes affect habitats by warming them or flooding them.
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Background Essay Questions
1a. List five conditions that are measured when studying weather and climate.
1b. Contrast weather and climate.
2. If the Earth had no Greenhouse Effect, how much cooler would the average temperature be?
3. Describe each step in the Greenhouse Effect process.
4. Describe the process for forming fossil fuels, list three common forms, and explain how humans use fossil fuels.
5. What is added to the atmosphere when fossil fuels are burned, and in what ways are habitats on Earth affected by this increase?
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Step 3: Understanding the Question and Pre-Bucketing
Understanding the Question and Task
Answers to student questions:
1. What is the analytical question asked by this DBQ?
How does the current rapid change in climate affect habitats and species?
2. What terms in the question need to be defined?
rapid, climate, species
3. Rewrite the question in your own words without using the words rapid, climate or species.
How are plants, animals, and ecosystems affected by fast changes in the temperature on Earth?
Pre-Bucketing
Directions: Using clues from the DBQ, label each bucket.
Cause Effect #1 Effect #2 Species Affected
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Step 3: Understanding the Question and Pre-Bucketing
Understanding the Question and Task
1. What is the analytical question asked by this DBQ?
2. What terms in the question need to be defined?
4. Rewrite the question in your own words without using the words rapid, climate or species.
Pre-Bucketing
Directions: Using clues from the DBQ, label each bucket.
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Step 4: Document Analysis
Document A
The Big Idea – The Carbon Bathtubngm.nationalgeographic.com/big-idea/05/carbon-bathDecember 2009
Graphic:Nigel Holmes.Sources:JohnSterman,MIT; DavidArcher, University of Chicago; GlobalCarbonProject
The Carbon BathtubIt’s simple, really: As long as we pour CO2; into the atmosphere faster than nature drains it out, the
planet warms. And that extra carbon takes a long time to drain out of the tub.
A fundamental human flaw, says John Sterman, impedes action on global warming. Sterman is not talking about greed, selfishness, or some other vice. He’s talking about a cognitive limitation, “an important and pervasive problem in human reasoning” that he has documented by testing graduate students at the MIT Sloan School of Management. Sterman teaches system dynamics, and he says his students, though very bright and schooled in calculus, lack an intuitive grasp of a simple, crucial system: a bathtub.
In particular, a tub with the tap running and the drain open. The water level can stand for many quantities in the modern world. The level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is one. A person’s waistline or credit card debt—both of which have also become spreading problems of late—are two more. In all three cases, the level in the
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tub falls only when the drain runs faster than the tap—when you burn more calories than you eat, for instance, or pay off old charges faster than you incur new ones.
Plants, oceans, and rocks all drain carbon from the atmosphere, but as climatologist David Archer explains in his book The Long Thaw, those drains are slow. It’s going to take them hundreds of years to remove most of the CO2; that humans are pouring into the tub and hundreds of thousands of years to remove it all. Stopping the rise of CO2; will thus require huge cuts in emissions from cars, power plants, and factories, until inflow no longer exceeds outflow.
By 2008, the level of CO2; in the tub was 385 parts per million (ppm) and rising by 2 or 3 ppm each year. To stop it at 450 ppm, Sterman says, a level many scientists consider dangerously high, the world would have to cut emissions by around 80 percent by 2050. When diplomats convene in Copenhagen this month to negotiate a global climate treaty, Sterman will be there to help, with software that shows immediately, based on the latest climate-model forecasts, how a proposed emissions cut will affect the level in the tub—and thus the temperature of the planet. His students are generally much better at bathtub dynamics by the end of his course, which gives him hope. “People can learn this,” he says. —Robert Kunzig
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Analysis: Document A
Note: throughout this DBQ, the unit “ppm” is used. It stands for parts per million. Just as per cent means out of a hundred, so parts per million or ppm means out of a million. It is a useful unit for the concentration of trace gases such as CO2 in our atmosphere.
1. The amount of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere annually: _______ billion metric tons
The amount of CO2 that is absorbed by oceans/plants: _____ billion metric tons
The amount of CO2 that accumulates in Earth’s atmosphere: ______ billion metric tons or _____ ppm
2. A simple equation summarizes the bathtub analogy: IN = OUT + ACCUMULATION.
a) To what two other problems can the bathtub analogy apply, as suggested by the author?
b) How can you decrease accumulation in the problems listed in (a) ?
3. Suppose we hold emissions at current levels. Explain thoroughly why that will not stop the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.
4. If we stopped CO2 emissions completely, how many years would it take to bring CO2 levels back to 350 ppm, and why would it take so long?
5. What was the CO2 concentration in 2008, in ppm (parts per million)? __________
Calculate the current concentration (using 2 ppm/year and 3 ppm/year). Show your work.
6. Find out the current concentration from https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
Based on the current concentration, is our rate of increase closer to 2 or to 3 ppm/year?
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Document B
The Keeling Curve
Sources: http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/keeling_curve, http://science.kqed.org/quest/2014/12/12/the-keeling-curve-explained/
Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, humans have been emitting more and more CO2. At the same time, forests all over the world are being cleared for agriculture and development. Deforestation not only leaves fewer plants to absorb the increasing amounts of CO2, but also adds CO2 to the air when trees are burned or left to decay.
Until about the mid-20th century many scientists thought that the oceans would easily absorb the excess CO2 emitted from fossil fuel burning, so there wasn't a great concern over the possible effects of increased emissions in the atmosphere. However, there wasn't a lot of data on the actual concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. In 1958, Charles Keeling of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography began measuring CO2 levels in the air at a weather station in Hawaii and at the South Pole. After a few years, Keeling observed a steady increase in atmospheric CO2, an indication that fossil-fuel emissions were building up in the atmosphere. Due to funding cuts, Keeling had to stop measurements at the South Pole, but the weather station in Hawaii continues to measure concentrations of CO2. The Mauna Loa record, now known as the Keeling Curve, continues to be collected under the direction of Keeling's son, Ralph.
Source: http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/keeling_curve_lessons
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The small annual zigzag visible on the curve is timed with the seasons. Carbon dioxide levels drop during the northern hemisphere spring and summer, when plants are taking CO2 out of the atmosphere to grow. In the fall and winter, plants and leaves die off and decay, releasing CO2 back into the atmosphere and causing a small spike. Since most of the world's seasonal vegetation is in the northern hemisphere, the seasonal trend in the Keeling Curve record from Mauna Loa is based on northern hemisphere seasons. The detailed and logical “breathing” of the planet that the Keeling Curve shows is just one of many indicators of its sensitivity and accuracy. The Keeling Curve represents one of the most important geophysical records ever made.
Analysis: Document B
1. What was the CO2 concentration when Charles Keeling began collecting data in 1958? (include units)
2. Why do CO2 concentrations fluctuate (vary) in a periodic fashion?
3. Calculate the slope of the Keeling curve (with units) from 1965-1975 and from 1995-2005. Recall that slope = rise over run, and the units of the slope have the units of the y-axis over the units of the x-axis.
4. Your results in the previous question show that the rate has increased. What two reasons are given for why the rate of CO2 increase has changed?
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Document C
Carbon Dioxide Levels over Geologic Time
Sources: http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/history_legacy/keeling_curve_lessonshttp://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/ice-cores/ice-core-basics/
The Mauna Loa record can now be placed in the context of the variations in CO2 over the past 400,000 years, based on reconstructions from polar ice cores. During ice ages, the CO2 levels were around 200 ppm, and during the warmer interglacial periods, the levels were around 280 ppm. The levels in 2005 were around 378 ppm.
Ice coring has been around since the 1950s. Ice cores have been drilled in ice sheets worldwide, but notably in Greenland and Antarctica. Ice cores are cylinders of ice about 4 inches thick that are retrieved using a hollow drill. High rates of snow accumulation provide excellent time resolution, and bubbles in the ice core preserve actual samples of the world’s ancient atmosphere. Through analysis of ice cores, scientists learn about glacial-interglacial cycles, changing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and climate stability over the last 10,000 years. Many ice cores have been drilled in Antarctica.
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Analysis: Document C
1. How were data obtained on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere prior to 1958?
2. According to the CO2 data based on ice cores what is the normal range of CO2concentration?
3. According to the CO2 data based on ice cores, about how many years passed between each maximum of 280 ppm?
4. If humans had not put any carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, what would the concentration of carbon dioxide be currently?
5. Why is the line from 280 ppm to the 2007 level of 383 ppm such a steep line, while the Keeling Curve appears much more gradual?
6. What does your answer to the previous question tell us about the current rate of change of carbon dioxide on a geologic time scale?
Document D
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Analysis: Document D
1. To compare the rate of sea level rise over different time periods, we will calculate the slope. Remember that slope = rise over run, and the units of the slope have the units of the y-axis over the units of the x-axis.
a) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1880-1920? Include units and show work.
b) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1920-1960? Include units and show work.
c) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1960-2000? Include units and show work.
Document E
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Sea Level Rise
Source: http://ocean.nationalgeographic.com/ocean/critical-issues-sea-level-rise/
Core samples, tide gauge readings, and, most recently, satellite measurements tell us that over the past century, the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) has risen by 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 centimeters). However, the annual rate of rise over the past 20 years has been 0.13 inches (3.2 millimeters) a year, roughly twice the average speed of the preceding 80 years.
Over the past century, the burning of fossil fuels and other human and natural activities has released enormous amounts of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere. These emissions have caused the Earth's surface temperature to rise, and the oceans absorb about 80 percent of this additional heat.
The rise in sea levels is linked to three primary factors, all induced by this ongoing global climate change:
Thermal expansion:
When water heats up, it expands. About half of the past century's rise in sea level is attributable to warmer oceans simply occupying more space.
Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps:
Large ice formations, like glaciers and the polar ice caps, naturally melt back a bit each summer. But in the winter, snows, made primarily from evaporated seawater, are generally sufficient to balance out the melting. Recently, though, persistently higher temperatures caused by global warming have led to greater-than-average summer melting as well as diminished snowfall due to later winters and earlier springs. This imbalance results in a significant net gain in runoff versus evaporation for the ocean, causing sea levels to rise.
Ice loss from Greenland and West Antarctica:
As with glaciers and the ice caps, increased heat is causing the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica to melt at an accelerated pace. Scientists also believe meltwater from above and seawater from below is seeping beneath Greenland's and West Antarctica's ice sheets, effectively lubricating ice streams and causing them to move more quickly into the sea. Moreover, higher sea temperatures are causing the massive ice shelves that extend out from Antarctica to melt from below, weaken, and break off.
It is expected that melting land ice (e.g. from Greenland and mountain glaciers) will play a more significant role in contributing to future sea level rise.
Consequences
When sea levels rise rapidly, as they have been doing, even a small increase can have devastating effects on coastal habitats. As seawater reaches farther inland, it can cause destructive erosion, flooding of wetlands, contamination of aquifers and agricultural soils, and lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants.
When large storms hit land, higher sea levels mean bigger, more powerful storm surges that can strip away everything in their path.
In addition, hundreds of millions of people live in areas that will become increasingly vulnerable to flooding. Higher sea levels would force them to abandon their homes and relocate. Low-lying islands could be submerged completely.
Analysis: Document E
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1. According to the article, what is the rate of sea level rise over the last 20 years, and how does it compare to the rate for most of the 20th century?
2. Complete the table below:
Factor affecting sea level rise Additional details
3. Describe three ways that rising sea levels affects coastal habitats.
Document F
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Temperature Measurements
Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/
Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Global average temperature is one of the most-cited indicators of global climate change, and shows an increase of approximately 1.4°F since the early 20th Century. The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites. There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes. Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years.
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Analysis: Document F
1. According to the graph, about how many degrees Fahrenheit has the global temperature increased since the 1880’s? How many degrees Celsius is the change? (an increase of 1 degree Celsius is equal to a 1.8 degree F increase).
2. Give at least three other pieces of evidence given in the document besides temperature data that the Earth is warming.
3. You may have heard the phrase “Correlation does not imply causation.” This phrase means that just because two trends correspond, it does not mean necessarily that one is the cause and the other is the effect. For example, there is a correlation between shoe size and reading ability. Yet that does not mean that shoe size causes good reading skills. Why then, based on everything you’ve read so far, is it reasonable to conclude that for this case, the increase in carbon dioxide is causing the increase in temperature?
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Document A Analysis Answers
1. The amount of CO2 that goes into the atmosphere annually: __9.1_____ billion metric tons The amount of CO2 that is absorbed by oceans/plants: __5___ billion metric tons The amount of CO2 that accumulates in Earth’s atmosphere: ___4.1___ billion metric tons or _2-3____ ppm
2. A simple equation summarizes the bathtub analogy: IN = OUT + ACCUMULATION. a) To what two other problems can the bathtub analogy apply, as suggested by the author? The bathtub analogy also applies to credit card debt and a person’s waistline or weight.b) How can you decrease accumulation in the problems listed in (a) ? You can eat less or exercise more to lose weight. You can spend less and pay more to the credit card company to make your debt decrease.
3. Suppose we hold emissions at current levels. Explain thoroughly why that will not stop the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.Currently we are emitting almost twice as much carbon dioxide as the Earth’s oceans and plants can absorb. Just like a bathtub with tap that is running faster than the drain, there will be accumulation in the atmosphere.
4. If we stopped CO2 emissions completely, how many years would it take to bring CO2 levels back to 350 ppm, and why would it take so long?It would take hundreds of years to lower the carbon dioxide levels to 350 ppm. Plants and soil would absorb it but there is so much excess CO2 that it would take a long time. The ocean storing CO2 in deep water and rock weathering are much slower processes.
5. What was the CO2 concentration in 2008, in ppm (parts per million)? ___385 ppm_______Calculate the current concentration (using 2 ppm/year and 3 ppm/year). Show your work.385 ppm + 2 ppm/yr (n years) = current concentration. Repeat for 3 ppm/yr.
6. Find out the current concentration from https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ Based on the current concentration, is our rate of increase closer to 2 or to 3 ppm/year?Students will find that the rate of increase is closer to 3 ppm/yr.
Document B Analysis Answers
1. What was the CO2 concentration when Charles Keeling began collecting data in 1958? (include units)The CO2 concentration was about 15 ppm.
2. Why do CO2 concentrations fluctuate (vary) in a periodic fashion?The CO2 concentration increases in the winter when leaves have fallen off of trees and decreases in the summer when leaves are doing photosynthesis.
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3. Calculate the slope of the Keeling curve (with units) from 1965-1975 and from 1995-2005. Recall that slope = rise over run, and the units of the slope have the units of the y-axis over the units of the x-axis.approximately 1 ppm/year and 2 ppm/yr
4. Your results in the previous question show that the rate has increased. What two reasons are given for why the rate of CO2 increase has changed?The rate of CO2 increase has increased because of more fossil fuels being burned and trees being cut down for agriculture and development.
Document C Analysis Answers
1. How were data obtained on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere prior to 1958? Scientists drill ice cores and measure the composition of the bubbles in them to find out carbon dioxide levels thousands of years ago. The bubbles contain the same gas percentages as the atmosphere at the time the bubble formed.
2. According to the CO2 data based on ice cores what is the normal range of CO2concentration?The normal range is 200-280 ppm.
3. According to the CO2 data based on ice cores, about how many years passed between each maximum of 280 ppm? Approximately 8000 years.
4. If humans had not put any carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, what would the concentration of carbon dioxide be currently? The carbon dioxide level without human contributions would be near 280 ppm.
5. Why is the line from 280 ppm to the 2007 level of 383 ppm such a steep line, while the Keeling Curve appears much more gradual?The x-axis on this graph has increments of 1000 years while the Keeling Curve graph has increments of 1 year. As a result, the same increase appears to have occurred more quickly on the graph with an axis spanning thousands of years.
6. What does your answer to the previous question tell us about the current rate of change of carbon dioxide on a geologic time scale?On a geologic time scale, this change in carbon dioxide levels over the past century is very rapid.
Document D Analysis Answers
1. To compare the rate of sea level rise over different time periods, we will calculate the slope. Remember that slope = rise over run, and the units of the slope have the units of the y-axis over the units of the x-axis.
a) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1880-1920? Include units and show work.2.5 cm/40 years = 0.06 cm/yr or 0.6 mm/yr. Answers may vary slightly based on how students read the graph.
b) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1920-1960? Include units and show work.7.5 cm/40 years = 0.18 cm/yr or 1,8 mm/yr, which is three times faster than the earlier rate.
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c) What is the average rate of sea level rise from 1960-2000? Include units and show work.10 cm/40 years = 0.25 cm/yr or 2.5 mm/yr, about four times the rate at the beginning of the century
Document E Analysis Answers
1. According to the article, what is the rate of sea level rise over the last 20 years, and how does it compare to the rate for most of the 20th century? The current rate is 3.2 mm/yr, about twice the average rate of the previous 80 years.
2. Complete the table below:Factor affecting sea level rise Additional details
Thermal expansion When water warms, it expands.It accounted for half of the rise in the 20th century.
Melting of glaciers and ice caps Glaciers melt more in the summerThere is decreased snowfall due to later winters and earlier springsThere is a net loss of ice. This water runs off into the ocean.
Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica Ice sheets on these land masses is meltingWarmer oceans are causing some ice shelves in Antarctica to melt from below and fall in to the ocean.This will contribute more to sea level rise in the future.
3. Describe three ways that rising sea levels affects coastal habitats.Sea level rise can cause coastal erosion, flooding of wetlands, lost habitat for fish, birds, and plants, and contamination of aquifers and soil.
Document F Analysis Answers
1. According to the graph, about how many degrees Fahrenheit has the global temperature increased since the 1880’s? How many degrees Celsius is the change? (an increase of 1 degree Celsius is equal to a 1.8 degree F increase). The global temperature has increased 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit.1.5 °F x (1 °C / 1.8 °F) = 0.83 °C
2. Give at least three other pieces of evidence given in the document besides temperature data that the Earth is warming.Other evidence that the planet is warming includes the melting of glaciers on every continent, earlier blooming of plants in the spring, a reduction in the amount of snow cover, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, reduced artic sea ice, and rising sea level.
3. You may have heard the phrase “Correlation does not imply causation.” This phrase means that just because two trends correspond, it does not mean necessarily that one is the cause and the other is the effect. For example, there is a correlation between shoe size and reading ability. Yet that does not mean that shoe
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size causes good reading skills. Why then, based on everything you’ve read so far, is it reasonable to conclude that for this case, the increase in carbon dioxide is causing the increase in temperature? This question is meant to see if students have grasped one of the big ideas in this DBQ. Students’ responses should refer to the role of CO2 in the Greenhouse Effect. Since CO2 does trap heat, it is reasonable to identify the increase of CO2 as a cause of the global temperature increase.
Step 5. Bucketing - Getting Ready to Write
Bucketing
Look over all the documents and organize them into your final buckets. Write final bucket labels under each bucket and place the letters of the documents in the buckets where they belong. It is OK to put a document in more than one bucket. Remember, your buckets are going to become your body paragraphs
Thesis Development and Roadmap
On the chickenfoot below, write your thesis and your roadmap. Your thesis is always an opinion and the answer to the question. The roadmap is created from your bucket labels and lists the topic areas you will examine in order to prove your thesis.
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DBQ Essay Requirements and Outline Guide
Outline Guide:
Working Title
Paragraph #1- Grabber- Background- Stating the question with key terms defined- Thesis and road map
Paragraph #2- Baby Thesis for bucket one- Evidence: Supporting detail from documents with document citation- Argument: Connecting evidence to the thesis
Paragraph #3- Baby Thesis for bucket two- Evidence: Supporting detail from documents with document citation- Argument: Connecting evidence to the thesis
Paragraph #4- Baby Thesis for bucket three- Evidence: Supporting detail from documents with document citation- Argument: Connecting evidence to the thesis
Paragraph #5- Conclusion: Restatement of main idea - Insight or wrinkle
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RubricSkill Measured:
Score(1-4) 4 | Exemplary 3 | Proficient 2 | Developing 1 | Beginning
Research(from Documents)
Use of 5 or 6 or more credible sources to support claim/thesis with relevant facts and accurate details.
Use of 3 or 4 credible sources to support claim/thesis with relevant facts and accurate details.
Use of 2 credible sources to support claim/thesis with relevant facts and accurate details.
Use of 1 or 0 credible sources to support claim/thesis with relevant facts and accurate details.
Analysis Annotation of 4 or more sources as proof of analytical thinking and reasoning (evidence, inference, argument).
Annotation of 3 sources as proof of analytical thinking and reasoning (evidence, inference, argument).
Annotation of 2 sources as proof of analytical thinking and reasoning (evidence, inference, argument).
Annotation of 1 or no sources as proof of analytical thinking and reasoning (evidence, inference, argument).
Content Final product contains all 5 components below: Accurate content Concrete
examples/facts to support thesis
Addresses multiple concepts or ideas
Accurate evidence/data of relationships among ideas
Relevant content specific vocabulary
Final product contains 4 components below: Accurate content Concrete
examples/facts to support thesis
Addresses multiple concepts or ideas
Accurate evidence/data of relationships among ideas
Relevant content specific vocabulary
Final product contains 3 components below: Accurate content Concrete
examples/facts to support thesis
Addresses multiple concepts or ideas
Accurate evidence/data of relationships among ideas
Relevant content specific vocabulary
Final product contains 2 or less components below: Accurate content Concrete
examples/facts to support thesis
Addresses multiple concepts or ideas
Accurate evidence/data of relationships among ideas
Relevant content specific vocabulary
Organization Development of claim and 5 elements of an effective argument essay, including: Introduction
connected to claim statement
Counter claim 2 or more body
paragraphs (sub claim) with correct sequence and grouping of information
Conclusion (connected to claim statement)
Illustrations or other media (i.e., tables, graphs, charts)
Development of claim and 4 elements of an effective argument essay, including: Introduction
connected to claim statement
Counter claim 2 or more body
paragraphs (sub claim) with correct sequence and grouping of information
Conclusion (connected to claim statement)
Illustrations or other media (i.e., tables, graphs, charts)
Development of claim and 3 elements of an effective argument essay, including: Introduction
connected to claim statement
Counter claim 2 or more body
paragraphs (sub claim) with correct sequence and grouping of information
Conclusion (connected to claim statement)
Illustrations or other media (i.e., tables, graphs, charts)
Development of claim and 2 or less elements of an effective argument essay, including: Introduction
connected to claim statement
Counter claim 2 or more body
paragraphs (sub claim) with correct sequence and grouping of information
Conclusion (connected to claim statement)
Illustrations or other media (i.e., tables, graphs, charts)
Language and Conventions
Use of all 4 writing conventions Correct spelling Capitalization and
punctuation Transitions among
Use of 3 writing conventions Correct spelling Capitalization and
punctuation Transitions among
Use of 2 writing conventions Correct spelling Capitalization and
punctuation Transitions among
Use of 1 or less writing conventions Correct spelling Capitalization
and punctuation Transitions
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ideas and concepts Sentence variety
ideas and concepts Sentence variety
ideas and concepts Sentence variety
among ideas and concepts
Sentence varietyTotal Score:
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Hook Article #1No Room at the Top: High-mountain species are particularly susceptible to global warming--and North America's cold-loving pikas may be the most vulnerable of all12-01-2005 // Paul Tolmé // National Wildlife Magazinehttps://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/National-Wildlife/Animals/Archives/2006/No-Room-at-the-Top.aspx
BIOLOGIST CHRIS RAY felt something tug at her shoe as she sat in a steep boulder field at 10,000 feet in Montana's Gallatin Range waiting for a female pika to emerge from the rocks. Pikas are fuzzy, potato-sized herbivores that inhabit the tops of Western mountains. Frantic workers, they collect large piles of wildflowers and grasses during summer--a process called haying--to eat during winter.
Ray, who has studied pikas in the rugged mountains outside Bozeman for 16 years, looked down to see a pika nibbling at her sneaker. "It was trying to hay my laces," she says, laughing at the recollection. They also like backpack straps, the more colorful the better."
With round bodies, prominent ears, no visible tail and weighing just 5 ounces, pikas are unmercifully cute. But despite their cuddly appearance, American pikas, the smallest members of the rabbit family, are among North America's toughest animals--and they have to be. Pikas are one of the few mammals in the lower 48 states that can survive their entire lives in alpine terrain, the windswept no-man's-land above tree line.
But biologists like Ray now fear that these hearty creatures may not survive global warming. Unlike many wildlife species that are shifting their ranges north or to higher altitudes in response to changing climate, pikas and other alpine animals have nowhere else to go. In some locations, entire pika populations already have disappeared. Scientists say the animal's decline, like the proverbial canary in a coal mine, may presage problems for other species, from butterflies and birds to large mammals.
Windswept, treeless and frigid, the alpine zone, like frosting atop a cake, covers less than 5 percent of the planet's surface. In a book about the Colorado Rockies, Song of the Alpine, author Joyce Gellhorn describes these isolated mountaintop ecosystems as "islands in the sky."
Over the past century, the interior West, which includes the lion’s share of the country's high-mountain habitats, has warmed about 1 degree F. Computer models show the region heating up an additional 4.5 to 14.4 degrees F during the next 100 years. As the alpine warms, scientists expect snowpack to shrink, a phenomenon already observed in the Pacific Northwest, the Southern Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. Reduced moisture would dry alpine soils, spur the invasion of lower-elevation conifers and grasses, and crowd out native species.
In Rocky Mountain National Park, which has more than 100 square miles of alpine habitat, Colorado State University researchers estimate the tree line would rise 1,200 feet--eliminating half the park's tundra--if temperatures warm by 5 degrees F. Trees are already on the move. A paper published in the July 2005 Western
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North American Naturalist shows that the low-elevation distribution of Engelmann spruce, which thrives in the subalpine zone, moved 575 to 650 feet upslope in three of four watersheds studied in Nevada's Great Basin National Park between 1992 and 2001.
Trapped at the top, alpine wildlife is vulnerable to several of global warming's damaging effects, including vegetation changes, the invasion of new predators and pests, reduced winter snowpack and increases in extreme weather events. For pikas, one serious problem is heat itself. To survive in summer, they must descend into the cool, moist talus--rock piles at the base of mountain slopes--on hot afternoons.
As temperatures rise, researchers say pikas will abandon lower-elevation talus slopes and migrate higher into the mountains until they can go no farther--much like living on the highest point of a sinking island. "All other mammal species in continental North America have greater heat tolerances," says Colorado College alpine mammalogist Barry Rosenbaum, who is studying pikas on Colorado's Niwot Ridge.
In the Great Basin--the arid region between the Rocky Mountains and California's Sierra Nevada--pikas already are disappearing. According to National Park Service biologist Erik Beever, the mammals have recently disappeared from 8 of 25 mountainous locations where they were documented in the early 1900s. Beever, who published his discovery in the Journal of Mammalogy, says the die-off indicates that suitable habitat is shrinking. Notably, the most recent pika losses occurred at the warmer, southern end of the animals' range. 'This is what you would expect from rising temperatures--a loss at the margins of their distribution,' says Beever. The finding represents 'one of the first contemporary examples of a North American mammal exhibiting a rapid shift in distribution due to climate.'
In future years, Ray plans to compare her data on population fluctuations with temperature changes in the region. She suspects decreasing snowpack is at least part of the problem. Snow that covers talus slopes in winter insulates pikas from subfreezing temperatures. "If they are shivering through winter, that certainly would affect their fitness," says Ray. Ironically, global warming could be causing some pikas to freeze.
In the past, pikas could disperse between mountain ranges. But warmer temperatures make that journey a death march now. "If an isolated population blinks out today," Ray says, "it's nearly impossible for that habitat to become recolonized."
Asked if pikas could be the first mammal to disappear from the Lower 48 because of climate change, Ray hesitates. "That's a reasonable hypothesis", she says. "When you see a systematic decline in pikas, that tells you dramatic changes are taking place in the alpine."
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Hook Article #2Rain Forest Plants Race to Outrun Global WarmingTropical plants are migrating due to climate change, but can they move fast enough?By Justin Catanoso, for National GeographicPUBLISHED SEPTEMBER 17, 2013http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2013/09/130915-climate-change-amazon-rain-forest-science/
From a 13,000-foot peak of the Andes Mountains in southern Peru, gazing east over the dense rain forests of the Amazon basin, all you see is undulating green—one of the most verdant places on the planet.
It's what you can't see that matters. The plants are on the run, trying to move to higher ground, where the air is cool enough to support their existence.
"Most of these species are not going to be able to tolerate climate change," says Ken Feeley, a tropical biologist from Florida International University in Miami, "mostly because climate change is happening so fast."
Feeley spoke as we hiked into the jungle with a small group of other scientists—through an area that contains more tree, plant, bird, and animal species than the entire eastern seaboard of the United States. It is here that an international collective of scientists, called the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group, has mapped one of the largest field grids of its kind for a wide range of climate change studies.
According to a decade of research by Feeley and his colleagues, including tropical biologist Miles Silman of Wake Forest University, tropical species are frantically migrating upslope as they reproduce. But they may not be moving fast enough. Tropical Andean tree species are shifting roughly 8 to 12 vertical feet (2.5 to 3.5 meters) a year on average—the arboreal equivalent of a dash. Yet for those trees to remain in equilibrium with their preferred temperatures, they need to migrate more than 20 vertical feet a year.
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Hook Article #3Climbing Trees: Plants Move Uphill as World WarmsSurveys show French forests are changing in response to a warming climateBy David Biello | June 26, 2008 Scientific Americanhttp://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climbing-trees-plants-move-uphill-as-climate-changes/
Global warming is leaving trees behind, according to a new study in Science. An analysis of forest species in six French mountain ranges (the western Alps, northern Pyrenees, Massif Central, western Jura, Vosges and the Corsican range) shows that more than two thirds of them moved at least 60 feet (18.5 meters) higher on the mountainsides per decade during the 20th century.
"Among 171 species, most are shifting upwards to recover temperature conditions that are optimum," says ecologist and lead study author Jonathan Lenoir of AgroParisTech in Nancy, France. "Climate change has already imposed a significant effect in a wide range of plant species not restricted to sensitive ecosystems." Previous research has shown that plants at the highest elevations on mountains (and in the polar regions) have been shifting to adjust to global warming. But this is the first confirmation that entire ecosystems in lower, more temperate regions are moving as well.
"Species are not just moving at the extremes of their ranges," says ecologist and co-author Pablo Marquet of the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile in Santiago. "What we show is that they are moving everywhere." In an effort to gauge the effect of climate change on ordinary plant life, researchers measured where the best growing conditions on the mountains were for species of trees, grasses, herbs, ferns and mosses. They discovered that those for 118 of the studied species—from the herblike three-horned bedstraw (Galium rotundifolium) to whitebeam trees (Sorbus aria)—migrated to higher elevations as temperatures warmed.
The researchers found that grasses, herbs and other short-lived species that had been through many generations shifted the most in search of perfect temperatures, whereas long-lived trees stayed largely in place. According to the authors, this is changing the composition of the forest—mixing formerly low-altitude grasses with high-altitude trees—which could potentially affect the entire ecosystem, particularly the animals that rely on specific plants to survive.
Plant ecologist Gian-Reto Walther of the University of Bayreuth in Germany says it is unclear what this finding bodes for the broader ecosystem. Lenoir notes, for instance, that even though tree species did not show much sign of movement over the past century, that climate change may affect the next generation. "Even if adult tree species suffer from hard conditions, they are still present so you can't see any changes," he says. "But seedlings perhaps don't appear in lower elevations that are too warm."
But long-lived and slow-moving trees may ultimately be able to catch up with their smaller, faster counterparts. "As long as the older trees are not so stressed that they do not produce many viable seeds, [and] the dispersal
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mechanism—for example, wind, birds, mammals—is present, and the habitat where the seed lands has the appropriate soil, nutrients and temperature," says biologist Terry Root of Stanford University, who was not involved in the study, "then the trees will be able to shift."
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Hook Article #4
Biggest Walrus Gathering Recorded as Sea Ice ShrinksMore than 35,000 of the marine mammals have congregated in Alaska.By Linda Qiu, National Geographic PUBLISHED OCTOBER 03, 2014http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141002-walruses-climate-change-science-global-warming-animals-alaska/
Scientists have photographed the largest gathering of Pacific walruses ever recorded, on a beach in northern Alaska, blaming climate change for the estimated 35,000 females and calves huddled beside the Chukchi Sea.
Federal biologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) photographed the gathering, known as a haul-out, north of the village of Point Lay over the weekend. It's hardly the first big walrus gathering to be documented, a fact noted by climate change skeptics. But scientists say the size of the gatherings are growing as climate change melts Arctic sea ice, depriving walruses of their sunning platforms of choice.
"The walruses are hauling out on land in a spectacle that has become all too common in six of the last eight years as a consequence of climate-induced warming," the U.S. Geological Survey wrote on their website Wednesday. "Summer sea ice is retreating far north of the shallow continental shelf waters of the Chukchi Sea in U.S. and Russian waters, a condition that did not occur a decade ago," the USGS website says. "To keep up with their normal resting periods between feeding bouts to the seafloor, walruses have simply hauled out onto shore."
As the ocean heats up due to global warming, Arctic sea ice has been locked in a downward spiral. Since the late 1970s, the ice has retreated by 12 percent per decade, worsening after 2007, according to NASA. Walruses were first spotted coming ashore in large numbers in 2007. In 2009, an estimated 3,000 walruses were seen; the number rose to 30,000 in 2011 and went back down to 10,000 in 2013.
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Scientists have seen large haul-outs on the Russian side of the Bering Strait for quite some time, says Anthony Fischbach, a wildlife biologist at the USGS in Anchorage. But since the first recordings of walrus gatherings in Alaska in the 1870s, groups of this size weren't observed until 2007, he said. May 2014 represented the third lowest extent of sea ice during that month in the satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
"Being in Alaska, climate change is very apparent," said Lori Polasek, a marine biologist at the Alaska SeaLife Center, a research and wildlife rehabilitation facility in Seward. "That's the reason why we have lost summer Arctic ice." Pacific walruses looking for places to rest in the absence of sea ice are coming onshore in record numbers on Alaska's northwest coast.
Following Bertha
Walrus gatherings are also a natural occurrence, Polasek said. Walruses pull their bodies out of the water—or "haul out"—to rest or warm up on ice platforms or land. While it's not unusual for males to gather in large numbers on Alaska's shores, females typically prefer floating ice chunks as places to give birth, leaving calves on the ice when finding food. Hauling out is partially convenience and partially walrus nature, said Polasek. The stretch of beach near Point Lay is close to Hanna Shoal reef, a prey-rich foraging ground.
The giant marine mammals are gregarious and tactile animals, swimming side by side in the water and sprawling all over each other on shore. And when it's time to haul out, walruses tend to play follow the leader. "Until one brave soul is willing to haul, they're all looking around and wondering, 'Hey, did Bertha just haul out?' Wherever Bertha or that brave soul picks, within hours, they'll all begin to haul out to [that place]," Polasek said. "They just want to be with other walruses."
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Polasek predicts the herd will remain at Point Lay for two to four weeks. They'll return to the waters once winter ice begins to form.
Can Walruses Adapt?
In general, haul-outs can be harmful to walrus populations, she said. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which tracks the status of species worldwide, says there's not enough information about walrus population trends to say whether the species—which has three subspecies, the Atlantic, Pacific, and Laptev walrus—is in decline.
However, "climate change is expected to have negative consequences for walruses, and particularly severe consequences for the Pacific subspecies," according to the IUCN website. For one, calves are particularly at risk of disease and from stampedes. Upon a disturbance, whether that's a polar bear or a boat in the distance, walruses tend to rush to the water.
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Hook Article #5Global Warming and WaterfowlNational Wildlife Federation Webpage Articlehttp://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global-Warming/Effects-on-Wildlife-and-Habitat/Birds-and-Waterfowl.aspx
Global warming is impacting waterfowl around the world, changing their habitats, food sources and migration cycles.
One of the most important waterfowl breeding areas in North America is the Prairie Pothole Region on both sides of the U.S./Canadian border in the northern Great Plains. Models of future drought conditions in the region due to global warming project significant declines in Prairie Pothole wetlands--up to 91 percent. This could lead to a 9-69 percent reduction in the abundance of ducks breeding in the region, affecting populations of mallards, gadwall, blue-winged teal, northern pintails, canvasbacks, redheads and ruddy ducks throughout North America's flyways. This is just one of the areas of waterfowl habitat seeing changes, as detailed in the National Wildlife Federation report, The Waterfowler's Guide to Global Warming.
Impacts to Waterfowl by Flyway
1 - Pacific Flyway
Critical waterfowl habitat of coastal marshes and estuaries along the Pacific Coast could be affected by sea-level rise, changes in inland precipitation patterns and a significant decline in average mountain snowpack.
2 - Central FlywayThe Prairie Pothole Region contains millions of shallow depressions that fill with water in spring. These ponds provide breeding habitat for millions of ducks and other migratory birds and many species of resident wildlife. As climate warms, many ponds could dry up or be wet for shorter periods, making them less suitable for breeding.
In the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, drought and decreased snowpack could reduce water flow in the Platte River and associated streams. Sandhill and endangered whooping cranes use these water sources as they migrate.
3 - Mississippi FlywayShoreline wetlands of the Great Lakes provide critical habitat for breeding and migrating waterfowl, especially diving and sea ducks. Global warming is projected to contribute to cause a 19-39 percent decline in ducks here by 2030.
As climate warms, a possible 3 to 34-inch rise in average sea level by 2100 could eliminate up to 45 percent of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States. The shallow wetlands of the Gulf coast are particularly vulnerable.
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4 - Atlantic FlywayGlobal warming is expected to affect the timing and distance of waterfowl migration. Warmer fall and winter temperatures in northern regions would make it unnecessary for waterfowl to fly as far south to find ice-free water and suitable food. For example, the unusually warm, late-arriving winter of 2001 increased hunting opportunities for waterfowl hunters in the Midwest and New England and reduced hunting opportunities in the Mid-Atlantic and South.
Global warming is also expected to affect shoreline wetlands of the St. Lawrence River in the United States and Canada, which provides critical habitat for breeding and migrating waterfowl.
Four Duck Species That May be Affected by Global Warming
Canvasback Duck Inhabitants of large prairie marshes during the summer, canvasbacks are wary birds that usually spend the winter on large lakes, bays, and estuaries. A major part of their diet is wild celery, which gives their flesh a rich taste. Canvasbacks are generally regarded as the best-tasting of North American waterfowl. Canvasback habitat is threatened by the draining of the large marshes they require to breed. Their long, V-shaped flocks are a striking sight as they move from one feeding ground to another.
Blue-winged TealFast and wary, blue-winged teals fly in small groups or flocks, turning in unison and flashing the blue area of the wing. They arrive latest of all ducks at their breeding grounds and leave early in the fall. On low, marshy prairies in the central part of the continent, where this duck is most numerous, virtually every pond and pothole has a breeding pair. The male commonly "stands guard" on the pond while the female is incubating.
MallardThe mallard is undoubtedly the most abundant duck in North America, approaching nearly 10 million birds after breeding. Mallard courtship actually starts in the fall, and by midwinter pairs have formed. Mated pairs migrate northward together, heading for the female's place of origin. The male stays with the female until incubation is well underway, then leaves to join a flock of other males to begin the annual molt.
Northern PintailOnce as common as the mallard at nearly 10 million birds, the northern pintail population has declined over the past 50 years to only about 3 million birds. Male pintails are unmistakable with their chocolate brown heads with a white stripe up the side of the neck, and long central tail feathers for which it is named. Winter flocks can be very large, numbering in the thousands. Some individuals winter as far south as Cuba, Mexico or even Central America. Seeds of aquatic plants are the pintail's main food, but in winter it also eats small aquatic animals; when freshwater habitats freeze over, it resorts to tidal flats, where it feeds on snails and small crabs. Male Northern pintails are aggressive, often forcing their attentions on females of other species.
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Hook Article #6Coral Marches to the Poles. Reefs may simply move house when the oceans heat up.Nicola JonesPublished online 21 January 2011 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2011.33http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110121/full/news.2011.33.html
Corals around Japan are fleeing northwards, according to a new study. One type has been spotted 'sprinting' at 14 kilometers a year, thanks to a lift from ocean currents. That means ocean ecosystems could shift rapidly in the face of climate-change impacts such as warming seas, the authors say.
The study, due to be published in Geophysical Research Letters1, is the first documentation of coral mass migration, but matches up with several other observations. As early as 2004 in Florida, for instance, staghorn and elkhorn corals were observed farther north than their usual ranges2, and in Australia, reef-dwelling fish have been found farther south than before.
Hiroya Yamano of the Center for Global Environmental Research in Tsukuba, Japan, and his colleagues checked out records of corals seen in Japanese waters since the 1930s. Here, sea surface temperatures in winter have increased by 0.7–2.4 °C over the past 100 years.
Of nine different coral types for which Yamano and his team had enough information to determine the location of colonies, they found that four had moved polewards over the decades, and five had remained stable. The four that moved, they note, have been listed as 'near threatened' or 'vulnerable' by the International Union for Conservation of Nature since 1998.
The team also notes that there are many places where ocean currents run polewards, such as along the east coasts of the United States, South America, Africa and Australia — all of which could help carry coral polyps to newly suitable areas for colonies or reefs.
Stunning speeds
The speed of the corals' movement is stunning, says Paul Sammarco of the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium in Chauvin, who was not involved with the study. "That's pretty fast. In fact, you wouldn't even see it in geological time — it would be like they're here today and in the North Pole tomorrow," he says.
The average rate of range expansion for land-dwelling plants and animals has been clocked at less than a kilometer a year, and for animals living on the sea floor, speeds of less than 5 km a year have previously been seen. The record holders, however, are squid — one species has been tracked moving at a rate of nearly 200 km a year over eight years to find better waters.
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The full picture of how corals are likely to react to climate change is complicated. When levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide rise and dissolve in the ocean, the more acidic waters can strip coral polyps of their calcium carbonate shells and dissolve reefs. Surprisingly, some corals seem to thrive even when 'naked', but the loss of hard reef material is bad news for fish and other creatures that live there. At the same time, higher temperatures can cause corals to kick out their symbiotic algae, a process known as bleaching, leaving them stressed and vulnerable. The year 2010 saw particularly dramatic bleaching.
Reef raiders
Stressed corals are also expected to be more susceptible to 'epizootics' — epidemics that affect animals other than humans — which have wiped out swathes of reefs. A recent paper3 suggests that there is a natural solution to this problem: coral colonies affected by rising temperatures are often repopulated by fast-growing, short-lived corals that are less likely to spread disease, thus making devastating epizootics less likely.
But such a change in coral population is not necessarily a good thing, says Sammarco — any more than burning down a forest of old, established trees and replacing it with pioneer species is always a positive development in ecological terms.
Sammarco is convinced that a new 'hypertropical' region will develop in the middle of today's tropical oceans, in which higher temperatures will bring a new ecology. "I'm predicting pretty much total extinction of corals in that zone," he says. The fact that corals have been spotted moving house isn't unexpected, he says, and gives hope for their survival. But the moves are still likely to be disruptive, says Yamano. "For corals it is good news, but for ecosystems, maybe not."
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Hook Article #7Sea-level rise threatens hundreds of U.S. animal speciesDoyle Rice, USA TODAY10:34 a.m. EST December 11, 2013http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/12/11/sea-level-rise-threatened-endangered-species/3963339/
Hundreds of species of animals in the U.S. are threatened by sea-level rise due to climate change, according to a report released Tuesday by theCenter for Biological Diversity, an environmental group based in San Francisco. "Our analysis finds that 17 percent — one in six — of the nation's threatened and endangered species are at risk from rising sea levels," the report notes. Left unchecked, the group says that rising seas threaten 233 federally protected species in 23 coastal states.
Sea-level rise is one of the more noticeable impacts of global warming: From 1901 to 2010, the average sea level rise was 7.4 inches worldwide, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century, with a projected range of about 10-32 inches.
Hawaiian Monk Seal
"From Florida's key deer to Hawaii's monk seals, some of our most amazing creatures could be doomed as the oceans swallow up their last habitat and nesting sites," said Shaye Wolf, the center's climate science director. "If we don't move fast to cut carbon pollution and protect ecosystems, climate chaos could do tremendous damage to our web of life," he said. "Federal wildlife officials have to step up efforts to protect America's endangered species from the deadly threat of rising seas."
According to the report, the USA's five species that are most at risk from sea-level rise are:
• Key deer (in South Florida) due to inundation of the islands where they live.
• Loggerhead sea turtles (Southeast) due to the disappearance of the beaches where they lay their eggs.
• Delmarva Peninsula fox squirrel due to inundation from the waters of the Chesapeake Bay, where the squirrels live.
• Western piping plover (West Coast) due to the inundation of the beaches where their nests are and where they feed.
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• Hawaiian monk seal (Hawaii) also due to the beach reduction from rising seas.
The USA is home to about 1,500 federally protected threatened and endangered species. The 23 states with endangered species threatened by sea-level rise are Alabama, Alaska, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington. In the report, the center analyzed data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Marine Fisheries Service and scientific literature.
