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CCB: Economic and policy aspectsMarch 2002
Ekko van Ierland
Environmental Economics and
Natural Resources Group
Wageningen University and Research Centre
• Socio-economic aspects of climate change
• Analysis of socio-economic causes of changes in landuse
• Cost-effectiveness studies at national and international level
• Integrated assessment modellen: Rains Asia; MERGE;
DICE model
• Analysis of policy instruments and options
• Interactions between various pollutants: GHG, acidification,
ozone
Marginal emission reduction costs, source: Kram, 1993.
Where are we now?• Integrated modelling (RICE, MERGE,IMAGE)
• Stakeholder: COOL /NOP impact project
• Started:– Risk and uncertainty analysis– Stability of International Environmental Agreement
• Lacking: economics and policy analysis of sequestration, landuse, water systems and interactions
* Shift from climate change to global change
* Stronger focus on interactions and their effects
* Costs of emission reduction vs sequestration?
* Technological progress and the implications?
* Multi/interdisciplinary approaches......but also monodisciplinary in-depth research
New challenges: the context
Carbon fluxes of a forest
CO2
NPP6±2
Litter3±1
Wood3±1
NEP5±1
Mineralisation
1.4±0.7
Harvest
1.5±0.9
Soil C flux
LitterWood
managed forest
Products
O layerA horizon
MRTyears
<1-31-250mean: 80
15-20
14-5270-170
Fluxes in t C ha-1 yr -1
New challenges ILanduse
• Mitigation options through landuse: cost and benefits
• Land use modelling:
climate, food, energy, nature, biodiversity
• Economic aspects of carbon sequestration: transaction costs, risk and uncertainty
New challenges IIRivers and coastal management
• Changes in climate, landuse and watermanagement
• Ecohydrological processes (scaling and remote sensing): economic analysis
• Socio-economic analysis for wetlands, river basins and coastal zones
Interrelations between environmental policies
Agriculture
NH3
N2O
CH4 Acidification
Eutrophication
Global Warming
Transport
Energy
Industry
NOx
SO2
CO2
NH3
N2O
CH4
NOx
SO2
CO2
End
-of-
pip
e ab
ate
me
nt t
echn
olog
ies
Results: abatement cost
0
5
10
15
GOT NMR GOT&NMR1 GOT&NMR2
abat
emen
t cos
t (bi
llion
Euro
per
yea
r)
New Challenges IIIIntegrated assessment
Available: Integrated Climate Change Models
MERGE; DICE; FUND; IMAGE
New questions:
• Interactions with other topics: acidification; nature conservation; biodiversity
• How to deal with risk: learning, irreversibilities, probabilities of damage?
New challenges IV: After 2010?
• What has to come after 2010?
• How to get developing countries involved?
• Who are loosers, who are winners?(See VI on IEAs)
Methods: Case studies;Scenario studies;Damage studies
New challenges V: RiskRisk and uncertainty analysis:
• How to integrate in decision making?
• How do stakeholders perceive risks?
• How to develop hedging strategies?
• What is actually precautionary principle?
Methods: Dynamic risk modelling
Stakeholder analysis
• Montreal protocol (CFCs, Ozone depletion)
• Gothenburg Protocol (Acidification)
• Kyoto protocol
• RIO Convention on biodiversity
International environmental agreements
New challenges VI: IEAs• Stability of international environmental
agreements
• Coalition formation (open membership)
• Internal stability/ external stability
• How to distribute the gains of cooperation?
• How to avoid members leaving the coalition?
Methods: APPLIED GAME THEORYCost benefit analyses