Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

Theme 2 Strategy 2011-2015

Jim Hansen

The Problem

CR

ISIS

HA

RD

SH

IP

FOR

FEIT

ED

OPPO

RTU

NIT

Y

Climatic outcome (e.g. production, income)

Pro

ba

bili

ty d

en

sit

y

• Climate-related risk impedes development– Downside risk– Opportunity cost– Affects farmers, markets, “relief trap”

• Source of chronic poverty, vulnerability• Increasing climate variability anticipated

The Opportunity

• Under-exploited opportunities to better manage climate risk

• Immediate win-win actions to build climate resilience

• CG-relevant synergies

• Key hypotheses:

– Make agriculture more resilient to future climate change.

– Reduce impediments to structural adaptations to future climatic shifts.

Conceptual Framework

Objective 1: Local–level Risk

Management Goal: Resilient rural

livelihoods• Target: rural communities

& markets; supporting institutions & policies

Scale

Objective 2: Food System Risk

Management• Goal: Enhanced food

security

Target: food trade, crisis response, policy – global & focus regions

Objective 3: Climate Information and

Services Goal: Enhance products and

services to support food security and rural livelihoods

• Target: climate community, communication intermediaries, users (O1 & O2)

Fill key gaps:

• Knowledge

• Tools & Methods• Evidence

• Capacity

• Coordination

GENDER & EQITY LENS

Enhanced climate services

Enhanced climate

services

Improved, climate-informed responses

Resilient food systems,

Improved food security

Enhanced support for managing risk

Resilient rural livelihoods

Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods

• Under-exploited, scalable risk management innovations

• Technology evaluation & targeting, not development

• PAR at benchmark locations

• Knowledge synthesis

Designed Diversification

Index-Based Risk Transfer

Anticipatory Management

Technology Evaluation

Scalable Indigenous CRM

Illustrative Research

• Index-based insurance– Targeting, design

– Developing better indexes

• Advance information for adaptive management

• Designed diversification

• Scalable, transferrable indigenous risk management

• Household-level risk/resilience design & ex-ante evaluation

Food System Risk Management

• Understand climate impacts on food security

• Climate-sensitive decisions• Information an entry point

for improving processes• Knowledge sharing,

coordination• New food system

partnerships

Manage price volatility

Food crisis response

Food security safety nets

Post-crisis recovery

Improved early warning (O3)

Platform for coordination

Marcus Prior, WFP

Illustrative Research

• Food system – farm household cross-scale interactions

• Impact of climate fluctuations on food security components

• Drivers, impacts, management of price volatility

• Costs vs. timing of alternative food security interventions

• Institutional arrangements for regional food security planning, coordination

Climate Information Products, Services

• Climate information products:– Address critical gaps– Prediction of agricultural

production, biological threats

• Climate services– Institutional arrangements– Capacity of providers

• Capacity to respond (O1, O2)

Historic data reconstruction

Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast

informationMonitor & forecast crops,

rangelands, pests & diseases

Institutional arrangements

Communication processes

Curricula, training

Illustrative Research

• Overcoming data scarcity as a constraint to CRM

• Predicting climate impacts on crops, forage, biological threats

• Tailoring climate information to decision-making

• Scalable, sustainable, equitable delivery mechanisms

• Agriculture & food security regional climate service roadmaps

Key Results in 2010

• Regional reviews of climate services for agriculture

• Regional evaluation of rural information delivery systems for climate-related services

• Climate and food security management scoping and strategy development

• Historic daily rainfall data reconstruction

• Remote sensing data assimilation for crop forecasting

• Modeling climate impacts on biological threats