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Environmental
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SustainabilityERE 742
School of Natural Resources Engineering and Management
GJU
Impact of CC,Vulnaribility Assessment,
and Adaptation
The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of CC including climate variability & extremes.
Function of: Magnitude, Rate of change Sensitivity of the system, and System adaptive capacity.
Vulnerability
sustainable development can reduce vulnerability to climate change
(IPCC 2007 in UNDP 2008)
WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?
Climate Vulnerability =
Biophysical Vulnerability + Social Vulnerability
GEO-4 (UNEP 2007)
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
Biophysical Vulnerability = the degree to which a [physical] system is unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change IPCC
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY
Social Vulnerability = measure of a society to adapt to hazards
Harsh climate + High exposure
High Physical Risk
= the political component of vulnerability.
Are national adaptation plans applied evenly?
Does political cover extend selectively to some communities?
How does the marginalisation of a community or people affect their ability to adapt??
Financial mobility?
Physical mobility?
SOCIO - POLITICAL VULNERABILITYSOCIO - POLITICAL VULNERABILITY
Chronic poverty Increasing population Weak institutions and physical infrastructure Low access to technology and information, Political and social Instability Lack of political commitments, access to
resources and management capabilities High illiteracy rates and lack of skills
Non Climatic conditions contributing to vulnerability
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All low-lying Island StatesAll low-lying Island
States Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Middle Income
Low Income Source: World Bank
Developing Countries Most At Risk
Resulting Impacts
Food insecurity:Water ShortagesSea level riseUndermined economic development.Increased poverty,Etc.
The solution
Development
AdaptationMitigation
Low Carbon Dev
Climate Resilient
Dev
Climate Proofing
Climate Compatible Development
Temp VariationR/Fall VariationSea Level rise
Climate ChangeFactors
Impact Analysis
Economic and Social SystemsEco Systems
Critical infrastructure
Natural HazardsLivelihoods
other
Risk Database
NAPA
Sector wide planning and development
Economic and Development Planning
Disaster Management/DRR
Early warning systemsPreparedness Planning
AwarenessRelief and Recovery Management
Lessons learned feedback loop
Cross cutting Inputs (examples):
Knowledge ManagementInformation Management
Capacity DevelopmentAdvocacy and awareness-
raisingPolicy and Planning
Climate Change Development
MonitoringLoop
Social and Gender Inclusion Mainstreaming
Framework
Poverty Reduction and MDG Goals
?Framework for mainstreaming CC within development strategies
Adaptation or Development??
CC Future Risk Predictions
Existing Risk Levels
Existing adaptive/coping capacityExisting Adaptation Gap
Predicted Adaptation Gap
Gap between existing coping capacity and existing/future risk may be so great that only long term development strategies may have an impact on reducing risk and vulnerability
Eroded Capacity
Adaptation Determinants
Progressive process at several levels simultaneously from local to national to global;
Support of enabling national policies, regulations and institutional setups.
Accurate and reliable dataTechnical and technological capacityFinancial resourcesInstitutional setup
ADAPTATION EFFORTS IN THE REGION
Fragmented efforts at national levelsNo coordinated regional or sub- regional adaptation approach Adaptation Gap in the region
Examples of needed adaptation in our region
Water Resources (Has taken a top priority among all adaptation measures):
The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers.
Improve efficiency, develop new water resources.
Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt with the new conditions.
Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility
Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction.
Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to the consequences of climate change,
Addressing adaptation in our region
A coordinated effort of capacity building, training, research, & development.
A region-wide monitoring program to provide reliable information for stakeholders and policy makers.
Plan adaptive integrated climate risk-based approaches, within relevant policy frameworks.
National and regional strategies and action plans should be developed and adopted.
National regional early warning systems for forecasts, risk assessment and monitoring of extreme events should be put in place.
Development & implementation of integrated regional water management (ground and surface waters).
Empowerment of communities, particularly women and other vulnerable groups.
Involving civil societies and private sector
Conclusions
Example of Vulnerability to CC
The case of Jordan
BackgroundClimate change
As a country characterized with semi-arid climate, high dependence on rainfall and scarcity of water resources, Jordan is one of the countries to be highly affected with climate change impacts.
Although Jordans emissions of greenhouse gases are very low, climate change is a threat to Jordan since the ecosystem productivity and water resources are highly dependent on the hydrological cycle.
1C 2C 5C4C3C
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions
FoodFood
WaterWater
EcosystemsEcosystems
Risk of Abrupt and Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Major Irreversible
ChangesChanges
0C
Falling yields in many developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers disappear water
supplies threatened in several areas
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs
Extreme Extreme Weather Weather EventsEvents
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions450 ppm CO2 eq
650 ppm CO2 eq
Projected Impacts of GlobalTemperature Change
Source: L. Rudolph, 2008
Findings of Jordans research on CC (The Second National Communication, SNC)
21
22
Vulnerability
The following four sectors were identified as the Key sectors for vulnaribility in Jordan by the SNC:
Water Resources sectorAgriculture sector Health sectorSocio-economic impacts
Climate parametersTrend Analysis
23
24
Precipitation trend analysis-19 meteorological stations
8 20% decreasing trends especially in the last 3 decades of the 2nd millennium up to the year 2006 in Irbid, Shoubak, Wadi Dhleil, Madaba, Amman A/P, Q.A.I.A., Mafraq and Aqaba.
5%, 7% and 10% increasing trends were exhibited since the 1980s up to the year 2006 in Ras Muneef, Al Rabba and Ruwaished respectively.
25
Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations
Maximum Temperature Trends:
Increasing trends of about 1.0 1.8 C in Baqura, Ghore Safi, Al-Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Safawi and Q.A.I.A.
Increasing trends of about 0.5 0.9 C in Deir Alla, Al-Rabba, Jordan University, Madaba, Ras Muneef and Al-Jafr.
Insignificant increasing trends of about 3% were found in Ruwaished, Mafraq and Maan.
26
Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations
Minimum Temperature Trends:
Increasing trends of about 1.0 2.8 C in Deir Alla, Ghore Safi, Irbed, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan University, Madaba, Mafraq, Ruwaished, Q.A.I.A. and Al Jafr.
Increasing trends of about 0.4 0.9 C in Al Shoubak, Aqaba Airport, Ras Muneef, Safawi and Maan.
The increase in minimum temperature is obviously greater than the increase in maximum temperature.
27
Temperature trend analysis -19 meteorological stations
Mean Temperature Trends:
Increasing trends of about 0.8 2.0 C in Ghore Safi, Al - Shoubak, Wadi Dhulail, Jordan University, Madaba, Ruwaished, Mafraq, Safawi, Q.A.I.A., and Al Jafr
Increasing trends of about 0.7 C in Deir Alla.
Insignificant increasing trends of about 0.3 0.6 C in Baqura, Irbed, Ras Muneef and Ma'an.
28
Conclusions - Trend analysis
The majority of stations exhibit decreasing trends in precipitation. While some other stations exhibit insignificant increasing trends.
The number of rainy days reveals decreasing trends of about 3 -10 percent in most of the stations. This has an adverse impact on the temporal distribution of rainfall over a season. (Impact on agricultural sector).
When the increasing rainfall amount is accompanied by a decreasing number of rainy days, the rainfall intensity will accordingly increase and the probability of recording extreme values of rainfall will also increase.
The max, min and mean temperatures reveal significant warming trends at 99 percent confidence level in most of the stations. The significant warming trends of min temperature are greater than that of max temperature. As a result, the mean temperature shows significant warming trends in all stations.
Climate Change Scenarios
29
30
Climate Change Scenarios
31
Findings - Climate Change Scenarios
All the scenarios show an increase in temperature of less than 2C.
As a rule, warming should be stronger during the warm months of the year while less warming is projected to occur in the cold months of the year.
The climate change scenarios for precipitation are highly variable.
32
Possible impacts of climate change- Jordan
Water stress and reduction in the availability of fresh water due to potential decline in rainfall
Threats to agriculture and food security
Impact on human health due to the increase in vector and water-borne diseases
Adverse impact on natural ecosystems, such as Jordan Valley, and coral reefs in Gulf of Aqaba, grasslands and mountain ecosystems.
The WaterSector
Nov 11, 2009 33
Findings, Water
The vulnerability assessment study presented in the SNC showed that ZRB and YRB are vulnerable to climate change.
There is a strong relationship between infiltration rates and the amount of rainfall in Jordan.
Accordingly, less precipitation will lead to less recharge; and less available water resources coupled with deterioration of surface and groundwater quality. 34
Agriculture Sector
35
36
Agriculture
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change because the available water and land resources are limited.
Due to urban expansion in the high rainfall zones, rainfed agriculture had expanded towards the marginal lands of arid and semiarid areas. Crop failure rate of barley is usually high and grain is usually obtained in one year out of five.
Results of DSSAT model showed that the increase in rainfall amount would not compensate for the adverse impacts of the temperature increase on barley.
Adverse impacts of climate change on rainfed cultivation and on the arid and semi-arid rangelands were identified as the most significantly impacting on the livestock sector and the overall food production in the country
HealthSector
37
Background Info
38
Climate Change and Health: Pathways
Climate change
Social, economic,
demographic disruptionsChanges to biological processes, timing
Changes to ecosystem structure
and function
Direct impacts
Indirect impacts, via changes to mediating systems
and processes
Health impacts
e.g. heatwaves, floods, bushfires
Fisheries: composition, yield Nutrient cycles
Forest productivity
Changes to physical systems/processes Urban air pollutant formation
Freshwater supplies
Mosquito numbers, range Photosynthetic activity
reduced food yields
1
2
3
(McMichael, 2005)
Climate Changes Impacts on Health
CLIMATE CHANGE
Temperature Rise 1Sea level Rise 2
Hydrologic Extremes
Temperature/Heat Stress
Air Pollution
Vector-borne Diseases
Water-borne Diseases
Water resources & food supply
Environmental Refugees
Heat StressCardiorespiratory failure
Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma
MalariaDengue
EncephalitisHantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
CholeraCyclospora
CryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis
MalnutritionDiarrhea
Toxic Red Tides
Forced MigrationOvercrowding
Infectious diseasesHuman Conflicts
1 3C by yr. 2100
2 40 cm IPCC estimates
HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Vulnerable Populations
Source: Derived from SAP 4.6, Chapter 2
Jordan HealthVulnerability
to CC
43
44
Findings - Health.
General effects on human health of increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns include: physiological disorders, skin rashes and dehydration, eye cataracts, and damage of public health infrastructure, deaths and injuries
The SNC showed a positive correlation between the rate of some diseases like Diarrhea rate and the mean monthly temperature
CC may result in changing in transmission of vector borne diseases
45
Findings - HealthThe most important effect of climate change in
Jordan is shortage of water, due to decreasing rainfall
One of the adaptation measures to cope with shortage of water is reuse of grey or treated wastewater in growing some trees or vegetables that are not consumed without cooking
This adaptation measure increases the opportunity for transmission of several pathogens through contamination of crops and could cause outbreaks like Typhoid fever, Amibiasis, Giardiasis, or Hepatitis A.
The Socio Economic Vulnerability to CC
46
47
Findings Socio economic
Shortage of water affects the sanitary conditions in the households, thus increases some kinds of diseases such as diarrhea, and the increase of costs of living.
Rain fed farmers are affected by the high temperature
and low rain in their farming practices, thus a decrease in their income.
Impacts on livestock: availability of rangelands and water, high prices of fodders, income
Recommendations
There is a need to develop a comprehensive multi-sectoral National Adaptation Action Plan through the participation and engagement of relevant institutions and stakeholders including ministries of environment, water, agriculture and health.
This action plan is expected to address all needs in the area of
Vulnerability and to focus on prioritizing the propose programs. The plan is also expected to identify barriers to implementation of the
adaptation measures and put forward programs, projects and mechanisms to deal with them.
48
THANKYOU
49
Sustainability ERE 742 School of Natural Resources Engineering and Management GJUVulnerabilitySlide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Non Climatic conditions contributing to vulnerabilityResulting ImpactsThe solutionFramework for mainstreaming CC within development strategiesAdaptation or Development??Adaptation DeterminantsAdaptation efforts in the regionExamples of needed adaptation in our regionAddressing adaptation in our regionConclusionsExample of Vulnerability to CCBackgroundProjected Impacts of Global Temperature ChangeSlide 21VulnerabilitySlide 23Slide 24Slide 25Slide 26Slide 27Conclusions - Trend analysisSlide 29Slide 30Slide 31Possible impacts of climate change- JordanSlide 33Findings, WaterSlide 35AgricultureSlide 37Slide 38Slide 39Climate Changes Impacts on HealthSlide 41Vulnerable PopulationsSlide 43Findings - HealthSlide 45Slide 46Findings Socio economicRecommendationsSlide 49