Adaptation to climate change in Vietnam

Dr. Dave A. D‘haeze

Belo Horizonte, September 11th 2013

Climate Change Predictions

Vietnam • Temperature increase: +0.8 - 2.7°C by 2060 and +1.4 - 4.2°C by 2090

• Rainfall increase: +33% by 2090 in Aug., Sep. & Oct.

• Extreme rainfall events increase: +2 to 14% by 2090 from May to Oct.

• Rainfall decrease in the dry season: - 62% in February, March and April

• Annual river flows: increase in the North; decrease in the South

Central Highlands • Days above 25°C increase: 79 in the base year 94 in 2020, 134 in 2050

and 230 in 2100

• Evapotranspiration increase: +8.5% (1,726mm) between 2040 and 2059; +14.47% (1,821mm) between 2080 and 2099

• Groundwater level decrease: after 2020 due to overexploitation and the decrease in groundwater recharge

2

Land Suitability Predictions - Current

Land Suitability Predictions - 2020

Optimum producing zone will increase by 2050 to altitude 600 -1000m asl (currently 300 - 900m asl)

Land Suitability Predictions - 2050

• Rising temperatures and higer maximum temperatures

Flower abortion

Higher evapotranspiration rate and

irrigation demand

• Irregular and heavy and intermittent rains

Several poor flowerings and poor fruit set

Increased erosion

Rainfall during harvesting, difficult coffee drying, lower coffee quality

• Irregular dry periods

Drought stress required

Not too long

• Falling ground water levels

Vulnerability of Coffee Production

• (no regret) measures (short-term)

Ground cover

More efficient irrigation

Zero-tillage

• Experiment with (mid-term)

Drip irrigation

Crop diversification and shade trees

Application of Hydro-polymers

Centralized drying

• Collect more data (long-term)

Metereological

Groundwater levels

Pests (cicadas)

Adaptation Priorities Identified

• Irrigation is critical to make coffee farming an economically viable livelihood activity

Dak Lak province : 40% national coffee production

Excessive irrigation

Irrigation costs 15-20% of the total production costs (labor, energy & equipment)

57% of irrigation water is groundwater; 95% for coffee

Current irrigation is exploiting up to 71% of the total water resources

Water Footprint – Case Study

.

.

Gia Lai

Dak Lak

Son La

Quang Tri

Ha Noi

Lam Dong

Ho Chi Minh

• Irrigation application

Water Management – Case Study

462

132

40 67 -

100

200

300

400

Average yield Optimized yield

Irrigation (mm/ha) Production (60 kg bag/ha)

1,400 liter / tree / round

400 liter / tree / round

• Water Footprint

Global average: 21,000 liter/kg

Vietnam: circa 5,500 liter/kg

Water Management – Case Study

3.970

2.382

404

283

1.150

690

-

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

Average yield Optimized yield

lite

r/kg

Green WFP Blue WFP Grey WFP

1 Cup of Coffee

Vietnam: 46 liter of water

Potential: 32 liter of water

Global: 130 liter of water

Potential water saving: 30 %

Water Management – Case Study

Feel free to Visit Vietnam dave.dhaeze@ede-consulting.com www.coffeeandclimate.org